Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

Accurate and efficient remaining useful life prediction of batteries enabled by physics-informed machine learning

The safe and reliable operation of lithium-ion batteries necessitates the accurate prediction of remaining useful life(RUL).However,this task is challenging due to the diverse ageing mechanisms,various operating conditions,and limited measured signals.Although data-driven methods are perceived as a promising solution,they ignore intrinsic battery physics,leading to compromised accuracy,low efficiency,and low interpretability.In response,this study integrates domain knowledge into deep learning to enhance the RUL prediction performance.We demonstrate accurate RUL prediction using only a single charging curve.First,a generalisable physics-based model is developed to extract ageing-correlated parameters that can describe and explain battery degradation from battery charging data.The parameters inform a deep neural network(DNN)to predict RUL with high accuracy and efficiency.The trained model is validated under 3 types of batteries working under 7 conditions,considering fully charged and partially charged cases.Using data from one cycle only,the proposed method achieves a root mean squared error(RMSE)of 11.42 cycles and a mean absolute relative error(MARE)of 3.19%on average,which are over45%and 44%lower compared to the two state-of-the-art data-driven methods,respectively.Besides its accuracy,the proposed method also outperforms existing methods in terms of efficiency,input burden,and robustness.The inherent relationship between the model parameters and the battery degradation mechanism is further revealed,substantiating the intrinsic superiority of the proposed method.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method for Multi-Component System Considering Maintenance:Subsea Christmas Tree System as A Case Study

Maintenance is an important technical measure to maintain and restore the performance status of equipment and ensure the safety of the production process in industrial production,and is an indispensable part of prediction and health management.However,most of the existing remaining useful life(RUL)prediction methods assume that there is no maintenance or only perfect maintenance during the whole life cycle;thus,the predicted RUL value of the system is obviously lower than its actual operating value.The complex environment of the system further increases the difficulty of maintenance,and its maintenance nodes and maintenance degree are limited by the construction period and working conditions,which increases the difficulty of RUL prediction.An RUL prediction method for a multi-omponent system based on the Wiener process considering maintenance is proposed.The performance degradation model of components is established by a dynamic Bayesian network as the initial model,which solves the uncertainty of insufficient data problems.Based on the experience of experts,the degree of degradation is divided according to Poisson process simulation random failure,and different maintenance strategies are used to estimate a variety of condition maintenance factors.An example of a subsea tree system is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Yields,growth and water use under chemical topping in relations to row configuration and plant density in drip-irrigated cotton

Background Water deficit is an important problem in agricultural production in arid regions.With the advent of wholly mechanized technology for cotton planting in Xinjiang,it is important to determine which planting mode could achieve high yield,fiber quality and water use efficiency(WUE).This study aimed to explore if chemical topping affected cotton yield,quality and water use in relation to row configuration and plant densities.Results Experiments were carried out in Xinjiang China,in 2020 and 2021 with two topping method,manual topping and chemical topping,two plant densities,low and high,and two row configurations,i.e.,76 cm equal rows and 10+66 cm narrow-wide rows,which were commonly applied in matching harvest machine.Chemical topping increased seed cotton yield,but did not affect cotton fiber quality comparing to traditional manual topping.Under equal row spacing,the WUE in higher density was 62.4%higher than in the lower one.However,under narrow-wide row spacing,the WUE in lower density was 53.3%higher than in higher one(farmers’practice).For machine-harvest cotton in Xinjiang,the optimal row configuration and plant density for chemical topping was narrow-wide rows with 15 plants m-2 or equal rows with 18 plants m-2.Conclusion The plant density recommended in narrow-wide rows was less than farmers’practice and the density in equal rows was moderate with local practice.Our results provide new knowledge on optimizing agronomic managements of machine-harvested cotton for both high yield and water efficient.

Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use eco-efficiency and its influencing factors in China from 2000 to 2020

Improving cultivated land use eco-efficiency(CLUE)can effectively promote agricultural sustainability,particularly in developing countries where CLUE is generally low.This study used provincial-level data from China to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of CLUE from 2000 to 2020 and identified the influencing factors of CLUE by using a panel Tobit model.In addition,given the undesirable outputs of agricultural production,we incorporated carbon emissions and nonpoint source pollution into the global benchmark-undesirable output-super efficiency-slacks-based measure(GB-US-SBM)model,which combines global benchmark technology,undesirable output,super efficiency,and slacks-based measure.The results indicated that there was an upward trend in CLUE in China from 2000 to 2020,with an increase rate of 2.62%.The temporal evolution of CLUE in China could be classified into three distinct stages:a period of fluctuating decrease(2000-2007),a phase of gradual increase(2008-2014),and a period of rapid growth(2015-2020).The major grain-producing areas(MPAs)had a lower CLUE than their counterparts,namely,non-major grain-production areas(non-MPAs).The spatial agglomeration effect followed a northeast-southwest strip distribution;and the movement path of barycentre revealed a"P"shape,with Luoyang City,Henan Province,as the centre.In terms of influencing factors of CLUE,investment in science and technology played the most vital role in improving CLUE,while irrigation index had the most negative effect.It should be noted that these two influencing factors had different impacts on MPAs and non-MPAs.Therefore,relevant departments should formulate policies to enhance the level of science and technology,improve irrigation condition,and promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land.

A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Physics Guided Deep Learning-Based Model for Short-Term Origin–Destination Demand Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems Under Pandemic

Accurate origin–destination(OD)demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit(URT)systems,particularly during a pandemic.However,this task faces several limitations,including real-time availability,sparsity,and high-dimensionality issues,and the impact of the pandemic.Consequently,this study proposes a unified framework called the physics-guided adaptive graph spatial–temporal attention network(PAG-STAN)for metro OD demand prediction under pandemic conditions.Specifically,PAG-STAN introduces a real-time OD estimation module to estimate real-time complete OD demand matrices.Subsequently,a novel dynamic OD demand matrix compression module is proposed to generate dense real-time OD demand matrices.Thereafter,PAG-STAN leverages various heterogeneous data to learn the evolutionary trend of future OD ridership during the pandemic.Finally,a masked physics-guided loss function(MPG-loss function)incorporates the physical quantity information between the OD demand and inbound flow into the loss function to enhance model interpretability.PAG-STAN demonstrated favorable performance on two real-world metro OD demand datasets under the pandemic and conventional scenarios,highlighting its robustness and sensitivity for metro OD demand prediction.A series of ablation studies were conducted to verify the indispensability of each module in PAG-STAN.

Predictive value of red blood cell distribution width and hematocrit for short-term outcomes and prognosis in colorectal cancer patients undergoing radical surgery

BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported that low hematocrit levels indicate poor survival in patients with ovarian cancer and cervical cancer,the prognostic value of hematocrit for colorectal cancer(CRC)patients has not been determined.The prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width(RDW)for CRC patients was controversial.AIM To investigate the impact of RDW and hematocrit on the short-term outcomes and long-term prognosis of CRC patients who underwent radical surgery.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with CRC and underwent radical CRC resection between January 2011 and January 2020 at a single clinical center were included.The short-term outcomes,overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)were compared among the different groups.Cox analysis was also conducted to identify independent risk factors for OS and DFS.RESULTS There were 4258 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery included in our study.A total of 1573 patients were in the lower RDW group and 2685 patients were in the higher RDW group.There were 2166 and 2092 patients in the higher hematocrit group and lower hematocrit group,respectively.Patients in the higher RDW group had more intraoperative blood loss(P<0.01)and more overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the lower RDW group.Similarly,patients in the lower hematocrit group had more intraoperative blood loss(P=0.012),longer hospital stay(P=0.016)and overall complications(P<0.01)than did those in the higher hematocrit group.The higher RDW group had a worse OS and DFS than did the lower RDW group for tumor node metastasis(TNM)stage I(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage II(OS,P=0.004;DFS,P=0.01)than the lower RDW group;the lower hematocrit group had worse OS and DFS for TNM stage II(OS,P<0.05;DFS,P=0.001)and stage III(OS,P=0.001;DFS,P=0.001)than did the higher hematocrit group.Preoperative hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS[P=0.017,hazard ratio(HR)=1.256,95%confidence interval(CI):1.041-1.515]and DFS(P=0.035,HR=1.194,95%CI:1.013-1.408).CONCLUSION A higher preoperative RDW and lower hematocrit were associated with more postoperative complications.However,only hematocrit was an independent risk factor for OS and DFS in CRC patients who underwent radical surgery,while RDW was not.

Short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function

BACKGROUND Hepatectomy is the first choice for treating liver cancer.However,inflammatory factors,released in response to pain stimulation,may suppress perioperative immune function and affect the prognosis of patients undergoing hepatectomies.AIM To determine the short-term efficacy of microwave ablation in the treatment of liver cancer and its effect on immune function.METHODS Clinical data from patients with liver cancer admitted to Suzhou Ninth People’s Hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Thirty-five patients underwent laparoscopic hepatectomy for liver cancer(liver cancer resection group)and 35 patients underwent medical image-guided microwave ablation(liver cancer ablation group).The short-term efficacy,complications,liver function,and immune function indices before and after treatment were compared between the two groups.RESULTS One month after treatment,19 patients experienced complete remission(CR),8 patients experienced partial remission(PR),6 patients experienced stable disease(SD),and 2 patients experienced disease progression(PD)in the liver cancer resection group.In the liver cancer ablation group,21 patients experienced CR,9 patients experienced PR,3 patients experienced SD,and 2 patients experienced PD.No significant differences in efficacy and complications were detected between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups(P>0.05).After treatment,total bilirubin(41.24±7.35 vs 49.18±8.64μmol/L,P<0.001),alanine aminotransferase(30.85±6.23 vs 42.32±7.56 U/L,P<0.001),CD4+(43.95±5.72 vs 35.27±5.56,P<0.001),CD8+(20.38±3.91 vs 22.75±4.62,P<0.001),and CD4+/CD8+(2.16±0.39 vs 1.55±0.32,P<0.001)were significantly different between the liver cancer ablation and liver cancer resection groups.CONCLUSION The short-term efficacy and safety of microwave ablation and laparoscopic surgery for the treatment of liver cancer are similar,but liver function recovers quickly after microwave ablation,and microwave ablation may enhance immune function.

Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Transformer-based correction scheme for short-term bus load prediction in holidays

To tackle the problem of inaccurate short-term bus load prediction,especially during holidays,a Transformer-based scheme with tailored architectural enhancements is proposed.First,the input data are clustered to reduce complexity and capture inherent characteristics more effectively.Gated residual connections are then employed to selectively propagate salient features across layers,while an attention mechanism focuses on identifying prominent patterns in multivariate time-series data.Ultimately,a pre-trained structure is incorporated to reduce computational complexity.Experimental results based on extensive data show that the proposed scheme achieves improved prediction accuracy over comparative algorithms by at least 32.00%consistently across all buses evaluated,and the fitting effect of holiday load curves is outstanding.Meanwhile,the pre-trained structure drastically reduces the training time of the proposed algorithm by more than 65.75%.The proposed scheme can efficiently predict bus load results while enhancing robustness for holiday predictions,making it better adapted to real-world prediction scenarios.

An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Adaptive Successive POI Recommendation via Trajectory Sequences Processing and Long Short-Term Preference Learning

Point-of-interest(POI)recommendations in location-based social networks(LBSNs)have developed rapidly by incorporating feature information and deep learning methods.However,most studies have failed to accurately reflect different users’preferences,in particular,the short-term preferences of inactive users.To better learn user preferences,in this study,we propose a long-short-term-preference-based adaptive successive POI recommendation(LSTP-ASR)method by combining trajectory sequence processing,long short-term preference learning,and spatiotemporal context.First,the check-in trajectory sequences are adaptively divided into recent and historical sequences according to a dynamic time window.Subsequently,an adaptive filling strategy is used to expand the recent check-in sequences of users with inactive check-in behavior using those of similar active users.We further propose an adaptive learning model to accurately extract long short-term preferences of users to establish an efficient successive POI recommendation system.A spatiotemporal-context-based recurrent neural network and temporal-context-based long short-term memory network are used to model the users’recent and historical checkin trajectory sequences,respectively.Extensive experiments on the Foursquare and Gowalla datasets reveal that the proposed method outperforms several other baseline methods in terms of three evaluation metrics.More specifically,LSTP-ASR outperforms the previously best baseline method(RTPM)with a 17.15%and 20.62%average improvement on the Foursquare and Gowalla datasets in terms of the Fβmetric,respectively.

Spatiotemporal evolution and future simulation of land use/land cover in the Turpan-Hami Basin,China

The Turpan-Hami(Tuha)Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China,holds significant strategic importance as a key economic artery of the ancient Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative,necessitating a holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover(LULC)to foster sustainable planning that is tailored to the region's unique resource endowments.However,existing LULC classification methods demonstrate inadequate accuracy,hindering effective regional planning.In this study,we established a two-level LULC classification system(8 primary types and 22 secondary types)for the Tuha Basin.By employing Landsat 5/7/8 imagery at 5-a intervals,we developed the LULC dataset of the Tuha Basin from 1990 to 2020,conducted the accuracy assessment and spatiotemporal evolution analysis,and simulated the future LULC under various scenarios via the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation(Markov-FLUS)model.The results revealed that the average overall accuracy values of our LULC dataset were 0.917 and 0.864 for the primary types and secondary types,respectively.Compared with the seven mainstream LULC products(GlobeLand30,Global 30-meter Land Cover with Fine Classification System(GLC_FCS30),Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover PLUS(FROM_GLC PLUS),ESA Global Land Cover(ESA_LC),Esri Land Cover(ESRI_LC),China Multi-Period Land Use Land Cover Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset(CNLUCC),and China Annual Land Cover Dataset(CLCD))in 2020,our LULC data exhibited dramatically elevated overall accuracy and provided more precise delineations for land features,thereby yielding high-quality data backups for land resource analyses within the basin.In 2020,unused land(78.0%of the study area)and grassland(18.6%)were the dominant LULC types of the basin;although cropland and construction land constituted less than 1.0%of the total area,they played a vital role in arid land development and primarily situated within oases that form the urban cores of the cities of Turpan and Hami.Between 1990 and 2020,cropland and construction land exhibited a rapid expansion,and the total area of water body decreased yet resurging after 2015 due to an increase in areas of reservoir and pond.In future scenario simulations,significant increases in areas of construction land and cropland are anticipated under the business-as-usual scenario,whereas the wetland area will decrease,suggesting the need for ecological attention under this development pathway.In contrast,the economic development scenario underscores the fast-paced expansion of construction land,primarily from the conversion of unused land,highlighting the significant developmental potential of unused land with a slowing increase in cropland.Special attention should thus be directed toward ecological and cropland protection during development.This study provides data supports and policy recommendations for the sustainable development goals of Tuha Basin and other similar arid areas.

Integrated assessment of yield,nitrogen use efficiency and ecosystem economic benefits of use of controlled-release and common urea in ratoon rice production

Controlled-release urea(CRU)is commonly used to improve the crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE).However,few studies have investigated the effects of CRU in the ratoon rice system.Ratoon rice is the practice of obtaining a second harvest from tillers originating from the stubble of the previously harvested main crop.In this study,a 2-year field experiment using a randomized complete block design was conducted to determine the effects of CRU on the yield,NUE,and economic benefits of ratoon rice,including the main crop,to provide a theoretical basis for fertilization of ratoon rice.The experiment included four treatments:(i)no N fertilizer(CK);(ii)traditional practice with 5 applications of urea applied at different crop growth stages by surface broadcasting(FFP);(iii)one-time basal application of CRU(BF1);and(iv)one-time basal application of CRU combined with common urea(BF2).The BF1 and BF2 treatments significantly increased the main crop yield by 17.47 and 15.99%in 2019,and by 17.91 and 16.44%in 2020,respectively,compared with FFP treatment.The BF2 treatment achieved similar yield of the ratoon crop to the FFP treatment,whereas the BF1 treatment significantly increased the yield of the ratoon crop by 14.81%in 2019 and 12.21%in 2020 compared with the FFP treatment.The BF1 and BF2 treatments significantly improved the 2-year apparent N recovery efficiency,agronomic NUE,and partial factor productivity of applied N by 11.47-16.66,27.31-44.49,and 9.23-15.60%,respectively,compared with FFP treatment.The BF1 and BF2 treatments reduced the chalky rice rate and chalkiness of main and ratoon crops relative to the FFP treatment.Furthermore,emergy analysis showed that the production efficiency of the BF treatments was higher than that of the FFP treatment.The BF treatments reduced labor input due to reduced fertilization times and improved the economic benefits of ratoon rice.Compared with the FFP treatment,the BF1 and BF2 treatments increased the net income by 14.21-16.87 and 23.76-25.96%,respectively.Overall,the one-time blending use of CRU and common urea should be encouraged to achieve high yield,high nitrogen use efficiency,and good quality of ratoon rice,which has low labor input and low apparent N loss.

Development and validation of a circulating tumor DNA-based optimization-prediction model for short-term postoperative recurrence of endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND Endometrial cancer(EC)is a common gynecological malignancy that typically requires prompt surgical intervention;however,the advantage of surgical management is limited by the high postoperative recurrence rates and adverse outcomes.Previous studies have highlighted the prognostic potential of circulating tumor DNA(ctDNA)monitoring for minimal residual disease in patients with EC.AIM To develop and validate an optimized ctDNA-based model for predicting shortterm postoperative EC recurrence.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 294 EC patients treated surgically from 2015-2019 to devise a short-term recurrence prediction model,which was validated on 143 EC patients operated between 2020 and 2021.Prognostic factors were identified using univariate Cox,Lasso,and multivariate Cox regressions.A nomogram was created to predict the 1,1.5,and 2-year recurrence-free survival(RFS).Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curve analyses(DCA),leading to a recurrence risk stratification system.RESULTS Based on the regression analysis and the nomogram created,patients with postoperative ctDNA-negativity,postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 125(CA125)levels of<19 U/mL,and grade G1 tumors had improved RFS after surgery.The nomogram’s efficacy for recurrence prediction was confirmed through ROC analysis,calibration curves,and DCA methods,highlighting its high accuracy and clinical utility.Furthermore,using the nomogram,the patients were successfully classified into three risk subgroups.CONCLUSION The nomogram accurately predicted RFS after EC surgery at 1,1.5,and 2 years.This model will help clinicians personalize treatments,stratify risks,and enhance clinical outcomes for patients with EC.

Land use change and its driving factors in the ecological function area:A case study in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is important for the provision of ecosystem services.An increasing number of recent studies link LUCC processes to ecosystem services and human well-being at different scales recently.However,the dynamic of land use and its drivers receive insufficient attention within ecological function areas,particularly in quantifying the dynamic roles of climate change and human activities on land use based on a long time series.This study utilizes geospatial analysis and geographical detectors to examine the temporal dynamics of land use patterns and their underlying drivers in the Hedong Region of the Gansu Province from 1990 to 2020.Results indicated that grassland,cropland,and forestland collectively accounted for approximately 99% of the total land area.Cropland initially increased and then decreased after 2000,while grassland decreased with fluctuations.In contrast,forestland and construction land were continuously expanded,with net growth areas of 6235.2 and 455.9 km^(2),respectively.From 1990 to 2020,cropland was converted to grassland,and both of them were converted to forestland as a whole.The expansion of construction land primarily originated from cropland.From 2000 to 2005,land use experienced intensified temporal dynamics and a shift of relatively active zones from the central to the southeastern region.Grain yield,economic factors,and precipitation were the major factors accounting for most land use changes.Climatic impacts on land use changes were stronger before 1995,succeeded by the impact of animal husbandry during 1995-2000,followed by the impacts of grain production and gross domestic product(GDP)after 2000.Moreover,agricultural and pastoral activities,coupled with climate change,exhibited stronger enhancement effects after 2000 through their interaction with population and economic factors.These patterns closely correlated with ecological restoration projects in China since 1999.This study implies the importance of synergy between human activity and climate change for optimizing land use via ecological patterns in the ecological function area.

An Investigation on Open-RAN Specifications:Use Cases,Security Threats,Requirements,Discussions

The emergence of various technologies such as terahertz communications,Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces(RIS),and AI-powered communication services will burden network operators with rising infrastructure costs.Recently,the Open Radio Access Network(O-RAN)has been introduced as a solution for growing financial and operational burdens in Beyond 5G(B5G)and 6G networks.O-RAN promotes openness and intelligence to overcome the limitations of traditional RANs.By disaggregating conventional Base Band Units(BBUs)into O-RAN Distributed Units(O-DU)and O-RAN Centralized Units(O-CU),O-RAN offers greater flexibility for upgrades and network automation.However,this openness introduces new security challenges compared to traditional RANs.Many existing studies overlook these security requirements of the O-RAN networks.To gain deeper insights into the O-RAN system and security,this paper first provides an overview of the general O-RAN architecture and its diverse use cases relevant to B5G and 6G applications.We then delve into specifications of O-RAN security threats and requirements,aiming to mitigate security vulnerabilities effectively.By providing a comprehensive understanding of O-RAN architecture,use cases,and security considerations,thisworkserves as a valuable resource for future research in O-RAN and its security.