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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling 被引量:2
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作者 Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI +2 位作者 Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第8期1539-1558,共20页
Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate model... Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6. 展开更多
关键词 triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards PROJECTION
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Ingredients-based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Combined Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Short-Range Forecasting:An Improved Scheme
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作者 TIAN Fu-you XIA Kun +2 位作者 SUN Jian-hua ZHENG Yong-guang HUA Shan 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2024年第3期241-256,共16页
Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the mos... Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena. 展开更多
关键词 ingredients-based methodology fuzzy logic approach probability of short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR) improved forecasting scheme objectively obtained membership functions
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On the Climatology of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in China 被引量:29
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作者 汤燕冰 甘晶晶 +1 位作者 赵璐 高坤 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2006年第5期678-692,共15页
Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitativ... Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their comprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands, were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events. 展开更多
关键词 Persistent heavy rainfall extreme precipitation event China CLIMATOLOGY
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Changes in Regional Heavy Rainfall Events in China during 1961–2012 被引量:16
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作者 ZOU Xukai REN Fumin 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第5期704-714,共11页
A new technique for identifying regional climate events, the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE), was applied to investigate the characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events i... A new technique for identifying regional climate events, the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE), was applied to investigate the characteristics of regional heavy rainfall events in China during the period1961–2012. In total, 373 regional heavy rainfall events(RHREs) were identified during the past 52 years. The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) had an important influence on the annual variations of China's RHRE activities, with a significant relationship between the intensity of the RHREs and the intensity of the Mei-yu. Although the increase in the frequency of those RHREs was not significant, China experienced more severe and extreme regional rainfall events in the 1990 s. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China were the regions in the country most susceptible to extreme precipitation events. Some stations showed significant increasing trends in the southern part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northern part of South China, while parts of North China, regions between Guangxi and Guangdong, and northern Sichuan showed decreasing trends in the accumulated intensity of RHREs.The spatial distribution of the linear trends of events' accumulated intensity displayed a similar so-called "southern flooding and northern drought" pattern over eastern China in recent decades. 展开更多
关键词 China regional heavy rainfall events
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Diagnosis of a Moist Thermodynamic Advection Parameter in Heavy-Rainfall Events 被引量:12
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作者 吴贤笃 冉令坤 楚艳丽 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第4期957-972,共16页
A moist thermodynamic advection parameter, defined as an absolute value of the dot product of hori- zontal gradients of three-dimensional potential temperature advection and general potential temperature, is introduce... A moist thermodynamic advection parameter, defined as an absolute value of the dot product of hori- zontal gradients of three-dimensional potential temperature advection and general potential temperature, is introduced to diagnose frontal heavy rainfall events in the north of China. It is shown that the parameter is closely related to observed 6-h accumulative surface rainfall and simulated cloud hydrometeors. Since the parameter is capable of describing the typical vertical structural characteristics of dynamic, thermodynamic and water vapor fields above a strong precipitation region near the front surface, it may serve as a physical tracker to detect precipitable weather systems near to a front. A tendency equation of the parameter was derived in Cartesian coordinates and calculated with the simulation output data of a heavy rainfall event. Results revealed that the advection of the parameter by the three-dimensional velocity vector, the covariance of potential temperature advection by local change of the velocity vector and general potential temperature, and the interaction between potential temperature advection and the source or sink of general potential temperature, accounted for local change in the parameter. This indicated that the parameter was determined by a combination of dynamic processes and cloud microphysical processes. 展开更多
关键词 moist thermodynamic advection parameter potential temperature advection general potential temperature heavy rainfall event
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Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island 被引量:8
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作者 Xianling JIANG Fumin REN +3 位作者 Yunjie LI Wenyu QIU Zhuguo MA Qinbo CAI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期580-591,共12页
The characteristics of tropical cyclone(TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall(TMDR) using daily station precipitation dat... The characteristics of tropical cyclone(TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall(TMDR) using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7(10 yr)^(-1)], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2(10 yr)^(-1)] and a weak increasing trend [0.1(10 yr)^(-1)], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm(TCER) events]peaking in August and September. The western region(Changjiang) of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs. 展开更多
关键词 Hainan Island tropical cyclones extreme rainfall events CHARACTERISTICS CAUSES
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Impacts of the Thermal Effects of Sub-grid Orography on the Heavy Rainfall Events Along the Yangtze River Valley in 1991 被引量:7
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作者 冯蕾 张耀存 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2007年第5期881-892,共12页
A P - σ regional climate model using a parameterization scheme to account for the thermal effects of the sub-grid scale orography was used to simulate the three heavy rainfall events that occurred within the Yangtze ... A P - σ regional climate model using a parameterization scheme to account for the thermal effects of the sub-grid scale orography was used to simulate the three heavy rainfall events that occurred within the Yangtze River Valley during the mei-yu period of 1991. The simulation results showed that by considering the sub-grid scale topography scheme, one can significantly improve the performance of the model for simulating the rainfall distribution and intensity during these three heavy rainfall events, most especially the second and third. It was also discovered that the rainfall was mainly due to convective precipitation. The comparison between experiments, either with and without the sub-grid scale topography scheme, showed that the model using the scheme reproduced the convergence intensity and distribution at the 850 hPa level and the ascending motion and moisture convergence center located at 500 hPa over the Yangtze River valley. However, some deviations still exist in the simulation of the atmospheric moisture content, the convergence distribution and the moisture transportation route, which mainly result in lower simulated precipitation levels. Further analysis of the simulation results demonstrated that the sub-grid topography scheme modified the distribution of the surface energy budget components, especially at the south and southwest edges of the Tibetan Plateau, leading to the development and eastward propagation of the negative geopotential height difference and positive temperature-lapse rate difference at 700 hPa, which possibly led to an improved precipitation simulation over eastern China. 展开更多
关键词 sub-grid scale orographic parameterization heavy rainfall events numerical simulation
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Main Energy Paths and Energy Cascade Processes of the Two Types of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basin 被引量:6
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作者 Yuanchun ZHANG Jianhua SUN Shenming FU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第2期129-143,共15页
Two types of persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Basin were determined in a recent statistical study: type A, whose precipitation is mainly located to the south of the Yangt... Two types of persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Basin were determined in a recent statistical study: type A, whose precipitation is mainly located to the south of the Yangtze River; and type B, whose precipitation is mainly located to the north of the river. The present study investigated these two PHRE types using a newly derived set of energy equations to show the scale interaction and main energy paths contributing to the persistence of the precipitation. The main results were as follows. The available potential energy (APE) and kinetic energy (KE) associated with both PHRE types generally increased upward in the troposphere, with the energy of the type-A PHREs stronger than that of the type-B PHREs (except for in the middle troposphere). There were two main common and universal energy paths of the two PHRE types: (1) the baroclinic energy conversion from APE to KE was the dominant energy source for the evolution of large-scale background circulations; and (2) the downscaled energy cascade processes of KE and APE were vital for sustaining the eddy flow, which directly caused the PHREs. The significant differences between the two PHRE types mainly appeared in the lower troposphere, where the baroclinic energy conversion associated with the eddy flow in type-A PHREs was from KE to APE, which reduced the intensity of the precipitation-related eddy flow; whereas, the conversion in type-B PHREs was from APE to KE, which enhanced the eddy flow. 展开更多
关键词 persistent heavy rainfall event energy cascade process large-scale background circulation precipitation-related eddy flow
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Correlation Analysis of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in the Vicinity of the Yangtze River Valley and Global Outgoing Longwave Radiation in the Preceding Month 被引量:6
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作者 汤燕冰 赵璐 高坤 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第6期1169-1180,共12页
Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) daily satellite dataset of global outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the period of 1974-2004 and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1971- 2004, the ... Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) daily satellite dataset of global outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the period of 1974-2004 and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1971- 2004, the linkage between persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) events in the vicinity of the Yangtze River valley and global OLR leading up to those events (with 1- to 3O-day lag) was investigated. The results reveal that there is a significant connection between the initiation of PHR events over the study area and anomalous convective activity over the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent, and tropical western Pacific Ocean. During the 30-day period prior to the onset of PHR events, the major significantly anomalous convective centers have an apparent dipole structure, always with enhanced convection in the west and suppressed convection in the east. This dipole structure continuously shifts eastward with time during the 30-day lead period. The influence of the anomalous convective activity over the tropical oceans on the initiation of PHR events over the study area is achieved via an interaction between tropical and extratropical latitudes. More specifically, anomalous convective activity weakens the Walker circulation cell over the tropical Indian Ocean first. This is followed by a weakening of the Indian summer monsoon background state and the excitation and dispersion of Rossby wave activity over Eurasia. Finally, a major modulation of the large scale background circulation occurs. As a result, the condition of a phase-lock among major large scale circulation features favoring PHR events is established over the study area. 展开更多
关键词 persistent heavy rainfall events global outgoing longwave radiation the Yangtze River valley
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The effects of extreme rainfall events on carbon release from biological soil crusts covered soil in fixed sand dunes in the Tengger Desert, northern China 被引量:4
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作者 Yang Zhao XinRong Li +3 位作者 ZhiShan Zhang RongLiang Jia YiGang Hu Peng Zhang 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2013年第2期191-196,共6页
In May to August of 2011, we assessed the effects of extreme rainfall (quantity and intensity) events on the carbon release from soils covered by different types of biological soil crusts (BSCs) in fixed sand dune... In May to August of 2011, we assessed the effects of extreme rainfall (quantity and intensity) events on the carbon release from soils covered by different types of biological soil crusts (BSCs) in fixed sand dunes in the Tengger Desert, northern China. A Li-6400-09 Soil Chamber was used to measure the respiration rates of the BSCs immediately after the rainfall stopped, and continued until the respiration rates of the BSCs returned to the pre-rainfall basal rate. Our results showed that almost immediately after extreme rainfall events the respiration rates of algae crust and mixed crust were significantly inhibited, but moss crust was not significantly affected. The respiration rates of algae crust, mixed crust, and moss crust in extreme rainfall quantity and intensity events were, respectively, 0.12 and 0.41 μmolCO2/(m2.s), 0.10 and 0.45 gmolCO2/(m2·s), 0.83 and 1.69 gmolCO2/(m2.s). Our study indicated that moss crust in the advanced succession stage can well adaot to extreme rainfall events in the short term. 展开更多
关键词 carbon release extreme rainfall events biological soil crust
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Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley during 1981–2020 被引量:6
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作者 Huijie WANG Jianhua SUN +1 位作者 Shenming FU Yuanchun ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第12期2167-2182,共16页
Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the ... Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH. 展开更多
关键词 persistent heavy rainfall events Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley Rossby wave energy dispersion water vapor paths cold air paths
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Comparison of two types of persistent heavy rainfall events during sixteen warm seasons in the Sichuan Basin 被引量:3
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作者 Yuanchun Zhang Jianhua Sun +3 位作者 Luqi Zhu Huan Tang Shuanglong Jin Xiaolin Liu 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2021年第6期48-53,共6页
Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic... Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic circulations and maintenance mechanisms between different PHRE types.There are two main types of PHREs:one is characterized by a rain belt west of 106°E over the SCB(WSB-PHREs),and the other features a rain belt east of 106°E over the SCB(ESB-PHREs).In total,there are 18 ESB-PHREs and 10 WSB-PHREs during the study period.Overall,the rain belts of WSB-PHREs are along the terrain distribution east of the Tibetan Plateau,while the precipitation intensity of ESB-PHREs is stronger.For the two types of PHREs,the shortwave trough over the SCB and the western Pacific subtropical high act as their favorable background environments,particularly for ESB-PHREs.The water vapor of WSB-PHREs is mainly transported from the South China Sea,whereas for ESB-PHREs the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal are their main moisture sources.The composite vorticity budgets of southwest vortices during their mature stage indicate that the convergence effect is a dominant factor for maintaining the two types of PHREs,and the strong vertical vorticity advection is also favorable,but the relative contribution of vertical advection is larger for WSB-PHREs. 展开更多
关键词 Southwest vortex Persistent heavy rainfall event Large-scale circulation Vorticity budget
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Two Opposite Extreme Events in Seasonal Mean Winter Rainfall over East China during the Past Three Decades 被引量:2
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作者 GUAN Zhao-Yong JIN Da-Chao 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2013年第5期240-247,共8页
In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National C... In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) monthly reanalysis,and sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre for 1979-2007.The largest anomalous rainfall amount was observed in regions south of the Yangtze River.In the most recent three decades,extreme events in the seasonal mean winter precipitation occurred in 1985 and 1997.Because it was influenced mainly by a La Ni(n)a event,the precipitation in 1985 showed a deficit following a stronger winter monsoon.The rainfall amount in 1997 was influenced by E1 Ni(n)o and was significantly larger than normal with a weaker winter monsoon.Both the circulation anomalies and wave energy dispersions during the winters of 1985 and 1997 differed significantly.In 1985,the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalously excited the Eurasian-Pacific teleconnection and circumglobal teleconnection phenomena.Consequently,Rossby wave energy propagated along the north and south branches of the westerlies,strengthening the East Asian trough along with a stronger winter monsoon,which facilitated the wintertime dry extreme in East China.In 1997,however,Rossby wave energy propagated from low latitudes northeastward into the southern part of China,resulting in a weaker winter monsoon and the wettest winter.The results of this study will be helpful for future monitoring and prediction of extreme winter rainfall events in East China. 展开更多
关键词 extreme seasonal mean rainfall winter monsoon ENSO event Rossby waves East China
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X-Band Mini Radar for Observing and Monitoring Rainfall Events 被引量:2
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作者 Marco Allegretti Silvano Bertoldo +4 位作者 Andrea Prato Claudio Lucianaz Oscar Rorato Riccardo Notarpietro Marco Gabella 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2012年第3期290-297,共8页
Quantitative precipitation estimation and rainfall monitoring based on meteorological data, potentially provides continuous, high-resolution and large-coverage data, are of high practical use: Think of hydrogeological... Quantitative precipitation estimation and rainfall monitoring based on meteorological data, potentially provides continuous, high-resolution and large-coverage data, are of high practical use: Think of hydrogeological risk management, hydroelectric power, road and tourism. Both conventional long-range radars and rain-gauges suffer from measurement errors and difficulties in precipitation estimation. For efficient monitoring operation of localized rain events of limited extension and of small basins of interest, an unrealistic extremely dense rain gauge network should be needed. Alternatively C-band or S-band meteorological long range radars are able to monitor rain fields over wide areas, however with not enough space and time resolution, and with high purchase and maintenance costs. Short-range X-band radars for rain monitoring can be a valid compromise solution between the two more common rain measurement and observation instruments. Lots of scientific efforts have already focused on radar-gauge adjustment and quantitative precipitation estimation in order to improve the radar measurement techniques. After some considerations about long range radars and gauge network, this paper presents instead some examples of how X-band mini radars can be very useful for the observation of rainfall events and how they can integrate and supplement long range radars and rain gauge networks. Three case studies are presented: A very localized and intense event, a rainfall event with high temporal and spatial variability and the employ of X-band mini radar in a mountainous region with narrow valleys. The adaptability of such radar devoted to monitor rain is demonstrated. 展开更多
关键词 X-BAND RADAR rainfall event Precipitation MONITORING Rain-Gauge Comparison HIGH Temporal RESOLUTION HIGH Spatial RESOLUTION rainfall Observation
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Assessing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Parameterization Schemes Skill to Simulate Extreme Rainfall Events over Dar es Salaam on 21 December 2011 被引量:1
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作者 Triphonia Jacob Ngailo Nyimvua Shaban +4 位作者 Joachim Reuder Michel D. S. Mesquita Edwin Rutalebwa Isaac Mugume Chiku Sangalungembe 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2018年第1期36-54,共19页
This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is... This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is determined during the 21 December 2011 flooding event. Ten sensitivity experiments have been conducted using Cumulus, Convective and Planetary boundary layer schemes to find the best combination and optimize the WRF model for the study area for heavy rainfall events. Model simulation results were verified against observed data using standard statistical tests. The model simulations show encouraging and better statistical results with the combination of Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme, Lin microphysics scheme and Asymmetric Convection Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary scheme than any other combinations of physical parameterization schemes over Dar es Salaam region. 展开更多
关键词 WRF Dar es Salaam EXTREME rainfall events Physical PARAMETERIZATION Schemes
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Understanding the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of the Extreme Rainfall Events in March-May 2017 to 2020 in East Africa 被引量:1
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作者 Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a Agnes Lawrence Kijazi +10 位作者 Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Patricia Achieng Nying’uro Musa Ssemujju Bamanya Deus Alfred Lawrence Kondowe Isack Baliyendeza Yonah Mohamed Ngwali Sudi Yasini Kisama Gahigi Aimable Joseph Ndakize Sebaziga Blandine Mukamana 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2020年第4期553-572,共20页
This study aimed at assessing the evolution, distribution and the socio-economic impacts of extreme rainfall over East Africa during the March, April and May (MAM) rainfall season focusing on assessing the trends and ... This study aimed at assessing the evolution, distribution and the socio-economic impacts of extreme rainfall over East Africa during the March, April and May (MAM) rainfall season focusing on assessing the trends and contribution of MAM rainfall in mean annual rainfall across the region. It employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methods to capture the patterns and variability of MAM rainfall. The PCA results indicated that the first Principal Component (PC) describe 17% of the total variance, while the first six PCs account only 53.5% of the total variance in MAM rainfall, underscoring the complexity of rainfall forcing factors in the region. It has been observed that MAM rainfall accounts about 30% - 60% of the mean annual rainfall in most parts of the region, signifying its importance in agriculture, water, energy and other socio-economic sectors. MAM has been characterized by increasing variability with varying trend patterns across the region. The MAM rainfall trend is not homogeneous across the region;some areas are experiencing a slight decreasing rainfall trend, while other areas are experiencing a slight increasing rainfall trend. The observed trend dynamics is consistent with the global trend patterns in precipitation as depicted in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Over the last five years MAM rainfall season have been characterized by record-breaking extremes. On 8th May 2017, Tanga and Mombasa meteorological stations recorded 316 mm and 235.1 mm of rainfall in 24 hours respectively, which are the highest amounts for these respective stations, since their establishment. Record highest 24 hours rainfall amounting to 134.9 mm and 119.4 mm were also observed at Buginyanya and Kawanda meteorological stations in Uganda on 18th March 2018 and 7<sup>th</sup> May 2020. On 6<sup>th</sup> May 2020, Byimana meteorological station in Rwanda, also observed 140.6 mm of rainfall in 24 hours, the highest since its establishment. These extremes have caused multiple losses of life and property, and severe damages to infrastructure. Unfortunately, the frequency and intensity of these extremes are projected to increase under a changing regional climate patterns. It is therefore important that more studies are carried out to enhance understanding about the evolution, dynamics and predictability of these extremes in East Africa region. 展开更多
关键词 Extreme rainfall events Principal Components MAM ENSO IOD
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Moist Potential Vorticity Vector for Diagnosis of Heavy Rainfall Events in Tanzania 被引量:1
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作者 Philbert Modest Luhunga George Djolov Edmund Mutayoba 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2016年第9期128-145,共18页
In this paper, we modify the convective vorticity vector (CVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity and gradient of equivalent potential temperature to moist potential vorticity vector (MPVV) defined as a ... In this paper, we modify the convective vorticity vector (CVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity and gradient of equivalent potential temperature to moist potential vorticity vector (MPVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity () and the gradient of the moist-air entropy potential temperature ().  The patterns of (MPVV) are compared with the patterns of heavy rainfall events that occurred over different regions in Tanzania on 20<sup>th</sup> to 22<sup>nd</sup> December, 2011 and on 5<sup>th</sup> to 8<sup>th</sup> May, 2015. Moreover, the article aimed at assessing the relative contributions of the magnitude, horizontal and vertical components of (MPVV) detecting on the observed patterns of rainfall events. Dynamic and thermodynamic variables: wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity from numerical output generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model running at Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) were used to compute MPVV. It is found that MPVV provide accurate tracking of locations received heavy rainfall, suggesting its potential use as a dynamic tracer for heavy rainfall events in Tanzania.  Finally it is found that the first and second components of MPVV contribute almost equally in tracing locations received heavy rainfall events. The magnitude of MPVV described the locations received heavy rainfall events better than the components. 展开更多
关键词 Moist Potential Vorticity Vector Moist-Air Entropic Potential Temperature Heavy rainfall events
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Subseasonal variation of winter rainfall anomalies over South China during the mature phase of super El Ni?o events
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作者 GUO Li ZHU Cong-Wen +1 位作者 LIU Bo-Qi MA Shuang-Mei 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2018年第5期396-403,共8页
The authors explore the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of rainfall anomalies in South China,the related circulation regimes,and discuss the possible causes of the large variability of the positive rainfall anomalies ov... The authors explore the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of rainfall anomalies in South China,the related circulation regimes,and discuss the possible causes of the large variability of the positive rainfall anomalies over South China during the winter of the 1982/83,1997/98 and 2015/16 super EI Nino events.Case-by-case analysis shows that the 10–20-day ISO associated with the successive heavy rainfall events lead to the positive anomalies of winter rainfall in the three winters.Meanwhile,the 20–50-day ISO is relatively stronger in the winter of 1982/83 and 2015/16 but weaker in the winter of 1997/98.Except for a different speed,the anomalies of the 200-hPa wave train associated with the two ISOs both propagate eastward along the westerly jet between 20 N and 30 N.In the winter of 1982/83 and 2015/16,when the upper-level subseasonal wave trains in different periods pass through South China,the in-phase enhancement of upper-level divergences and the pumping effect could induce the persistent heavy rainfall events,which facilitate the stronger seasonal-mean rainfall.Although the 10–20-day ISO alone in the winter of 1997/98 could cause the higher-frequency rainfall events,the weaker 20–50-day ISO attenuates the anomalies of the South China winter rainfall.Therefore,the joint effects of the 10–20-and 20–50-day ISOs are critical for the larger amount of above-normal rainfall over South China during the mature phase of super EI Nino events. 展开更多
关键词 Super EI Nino event South China winter rainfall Intraseasonal Oscillation(ISO)
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Rainfall-runoff modeling for storm events in a coastal forest catchmen t using neural networks
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作者 WANG Yi HE Bin 《成都理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第1期68-73,共6页
The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e ar... The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both tempor al and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using th e artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simula ting the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coa stal forest catchment located in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obta ined by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfa ll depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rai nfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 降雨径流模型 暴风雨 沿海林 集水 神经网络
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Real Time Monitoring of Extreme Rainfall Events with Simple X-Band Mini Weather Radar
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作者 Silvano Bertoldo Claudio Lucianaz +1 位作者 Marco Allegretti Giovanni Perona 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2016年第2期285-299,共15页
Real time rainfall events monitoring is very important for a large number of reasons: Civil Protection, hydrogeological risk management, hydroelectric power purposes, road and traffic regulation, and tourism. Efficien... Real time rainfall events monitoring is very important for a large number of reasons: Civil Protection, hydrogeological risk management, hydroelectric power purposes, road and traffic regulation, and tourism. Efficient monitoring operations need continuous, high-resolution and large-coverage data. To monitor and observe extreme rainfall events, often much localized over small basins of interest, and that could frequently causing flash floods, an unrealistic extremely dense rain gauge network should be needed. On the other hand, common large C-band or S-band long range radars do not provide the necessary spatial and temporal resolution. Simple short-range X-band mini weather radar can be a valid compromise solution. The present work shows how a single polarization, non-Doppler and non-coherent, simple and low cost X-band radar allowed monitoring three very intense rainfall events occurred near Turin during July 2014. The events, which caused damages and floods, are detected and monitored in real time with a sample rate of 1 minute and a radial spatial resolution of 60 m, thus allowing to describe the intensity of the precipitation on each small portion of territory. This information could be very useful if used by authorities in charge of Civil Protection in order to avoid inconvenience to people and to monitor dangerous situations. 展开更多
关键词 X-Band Radar Extreme rainfall event Precipitation Monitoring High Temporal Resolution High Spatial Resolution Real Time Monitoring Single Polarization
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