A two-stage short-term traffic flow prediction method based on AVL and AKNN techniques

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Road Network Topology

Accurate short-term traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation system (ITS), because it can assist both traffic authorities and individual travelers make better decisions. Previous researches mostly focus on shallow traffic prediction models, which performances were unsatisfying since short-term traffic flow exhibits the characteristics of high nonlinearity, complexity and chaos. Taking the spatial and temporal correlations into consideration, a new traffic flow prediction method is proposed with the basis on the road network topology and gated recurrent unit (GRU). This method can help researchers without professional traffic knowledge extracting generic traffic flow features effectively and efficiently. Experiments are conducted by using real traffic flow data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PEMS) database in San Diego and Oakland from June 15, 2017 to September 27, 2017. The results demonstrate that our method outperforms other traditional approaches in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE).

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on LSTM-XGBoost Combination Model

According to the time series characteristics of the trajectory history data,we predicted and analyzed the traffic flow.This paper proposed a LSTMXGBoost model based urban road short-term traffic flow prediction in order to analyze and solve the problems of periodicity,stationary and abnormality of time series.It can improve the traffic flow prediction effect,achieve efficient traffic guidance and traffic control.The model combined the characteristics of LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)network and XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)algorithms.First,we used the LSTM model that increases dropout layer to train the data set after preprocessing.Second,we replaced the full connection layer with the XGBoost model.Finally,we depended on the model training to strengthen the data association,avoided the overfitting phenomenon of the fully connected layer,and enhanced the generalization ability of the prediction model.We used the Kears based on TensorFlow to build the LSTM-XGBoost model.Using speed data samples of multiple road sections in Shenzhen to complete the model verification,we achieved the comparison of the prediction effects of the model.The results show that the combined prediction model used in this paper can not only improve the accuracy of prediction,but also improve the practicability,real-time and scalability of the model.

A Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on a Three-Layer K-Nearest Neighbor Non-Parametric Regression Algorithm

Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.

Traffic Flow Prediction with Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal Data Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model Using Attention-Mechanism

A significant obstacle in intelligent transportation systems(ITS)is the capacity to predict traffic flow.Recent advancements in deep neural networks have enabled the development of models to represent traffic flow accurately.However,accurately predicting traffic flow at the individual road level is extremely difficult due to the complex interplay of spatial and temporal factors.This paper proposes a technique for predicting short-term traffic flow data using an architecture that utilizes convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory(Conv-BiLSTM)with attention mechanisms.Prior studies neglected to include data pertaining to factors such as holidays,weather conditions,and vehicle types,which are interconnected and significantly impact the accuracy of forecast outcomes.In addition,this research incorporates recurring monthly periodic pattern data that significantly enhances the accuracy of forecast outcomes.The experimental findings demonstrate a performance improvement of 21.68%when incorporating the vehicle type feature.

Effects of connected automated vehicle on stability and energy consumption of heterogeneous traffic flow system

With the development of intelligent and interconnected traffic system,a convergence of traffic stream is anticipated in the foreseeable future,where both connected automated vehicle(CAV)and human driven vehicle(HDV)will coexist.In order to examine the effect of CAV on the overall stability and energy consumption of such a heterogeneous traffic system,we first take into account the interrelated perception of distance and speed by CAV to establish a macroscopic dynamic model through utilizing the full velocity difference(FVD)model.Subsequently,adopting the linear stability theory,we propose the linear stability condition for the model through using the small perturbation method,and the validity of the heterogeneous model is verified by comparing with the FVD model.Through nonlinear theoretical analysis,we further derive the KdV-Burgers equation,which captures the propagation characteristics of traffic density waves.Finally,by numerical simulation experiments through utilizing a macroscopic model of heterogeneous traffic flow,the effect of CAV permeability on the stability of density wave in heterogeneous traffic flow and the energy consumption of the traffic system is investigated.Subsequent analysis reveals emergent traffic phenomena.The experimental findings demonstrate that as CAV permeability increases,the ability to dampen the propagation of fluctuations in heterogeneous traffic flow gradually intensifies when giving system perturbation,leading to enhanced stability of the traffic system.Furthermore,higher initial traffic density renders the traffic system more susceptible to congestion,resulting in local clustering effect and stop-and-go traffic phenomenon.Remarkably,the total energy consumption of the heterogeneous traffic system exhibits a gradual decline with CAV permeability increasing.Further evidence has demonstrated the positive influence of CAV on heterogeneous traffic flow.This research contributes to providing theoretical guidance for future CAV applications,aiming to enhance urban road traffic efficiency and alleviate congestion.

An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Predicting Traffic Flow Using Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolution Networks

Traffic flow prediction plays a key role in the construction of intelligent transportation system.However,due to its complex spatio-temporal dependence and its uncertainty,the research becomes very challenging.Most of the existing studies are based on graph neural networks that model traffic flow graphs and try to use fixed graph structure to deal with the relationship between nodes.However,due to the time-varying spatial correlation of the traffic network,there is no fixed node relationship,and these methods cannot effectively integrate the temporal and spatial features.This paper proposes a novel temporal-spatial dynamic graph convolutional network(TSADGCN).The dynamic time warping algorithm(DTW)is introduced to calculate the similarity of traffic flow sequence among network nodes in the time dimension,and the spatiotemporal graph of traffic flow is constructed to capture the spatiotemporal characteristics and dependencies of traffic flow.By combining graph attention network and time attention network,a spatiotemporal convolution block is constructed to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic data.Experiments on open data sets PEMSD4 and PEMSD8 show that TSADGCN has higher prediction accuracy than well-known traffic flow prediction algorithms.

Multi-scale persistent spatiotemporal transformer for long-term urban traffic flow prediction

Long-term urban traffic flow prediction is an important task in the field of intelligent transportation,as it can help optimize traffic management and improve travel efficiency.To improve prediction accuracy,a crucial issue is how to model spatiotemporal dependency in urban traffic data.In recent years,many studies have adopted spatiotemporal neural networks to extract key information from traffic data.However,most models ignore the semantic spatial similarity between long-distance areas when mining spatial dependency.They also ignore the impact of predicted time steps on the next unpredicted time step for making long-term predictions.Moreover,these models lack a comprehensive data embedding process to represent complex spatiotemporal dependency.This paper proposes a multi-scale persistent spatiotemporal transformer(MSPSTT)model to perform accurate long-term traffic flow prediction in cities.MSPSTT adopts an encoder-decoder structure and incorporates temporal,periodic,and spatial features to fully embed urban traffic data to address these issues.The model consists of a spatiotemporal encoder and a spatiotemporal decoder,which rely on temporal,geospatial,and semantic space multi-head attention modules to dynamically extract temporal,geospatial,and semantic characteristics.The spatiotemporal decoder combines the context information provided by the encoder,integrates the predicted time step information,and is iteratively updated to learn the correlation between different time steps in the broader time range to improve the model’s accuracy for long-term prediction.Experiments on four public transportation datasets demonstrate that MSPSTT outperforms the existing models by up to 9.5%on three common metrics.

Prediction and Analysis of Elevator Traffic Flow under the LSTM Neural Network

Elevators are essential components of contemporary buildings, enabling efficient vertical mobility for occupants. However, the proliferation of tall buildings has exacerbated challenges such as traffic congestion within elevator systems. Many passengers experience dissatisfaction with prolonged wait times, leading to impatience and frustration among building occupants. The widespread adoption of neural networks and deep learning technologies across various fields and industries represents a significant paradigm shift, and unlocking new avenues for innovation and advancement. These cutting-edge technologies offer unprecedented opportunities to address complex challenges and optimize processes in diverse domains. In this study, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) network technology is leveraged to analyze elevator traffic flow within a typical office building. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of LSTM, the research aims to contribute to advancements in elevator group control design, ultimately enhancing the functionality and efficiency of vertical transportation systems in built environments. The findings of this research have the potential to reference the development of intelligent elevator management systems, capable of dynamically adapting to fluctuating passenger demand and optimizing elevator usage in real-time. By enhancing the efficiency and functionality of vertical transportation systems, the research contributes to creating more sustainable, accessible, and user-friendly living environments for individuals across diverse demographics.

An Innovative Approach for the Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation applications,such as traffic control,navigation,path planning,etc.,which are closely related to people's daily life.In the last twenty years,many traffic flow prediction approaches have been proposed.However,some of these approaches use the regression based mechanisms,which cannot achieve accurate short-term traffic flow predication.While,other approaches use the neural network based mechanisms,which cannot work well with limited amount of training data.To this end,a light weight tensor-based traffic flow prediction approach is proposed,which can achieve efficient and accurate short-term traffic flow prediction with continuous traffic flow data in a limited period of time.In the proposed approach,first,a tensor-based traffic flow model is proposed to establish the multi-dimensional relationships for traffic flow values in continuous time intervals.Then,a CANDECOMP/PARAFAC decomposition based algorithm is employed to complete the missing values in the constructed tensor.Finally,the completed tensor can be directly used to achieve efficient and accurate traffic flow prediction.The experiments on the real dataset indicate that the proposed approach outperforms many current approaches on traffic flow prediction with limited amount of traffic flow data.

MCA-TFP Model:A Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Multi-characteristic Analysis

With the urbanization,urban transportation has become a key factor restricting the development of a city.In a big city,it is important to improve the efficiency of urban transportation.The key to realize short-term traffic flow prediction is to learn its complex spatial correlation,temporal correlation and randomness of traffic flow.In this paper,the convolution neural network(CNN)is proposed to deal with spatial correlation among different regions,considering that the large urban areas leads to a relatively deep Network layer.First three gated recurrent unit(GRU)were used to deal with recent time dependence,daily period dependence and weekly period dependence.Considering that each historical period data to forecast the influence degree of the time period is different,three attention mechanism was taken into GRU.Second,a twolayer full connection network was applied to deal with the randomness of short-term flow combined with additional information such as weather data.Besides,the prediction model was established by combining these three modules.Furthermore,in order to verify the influence of spatial correlation on prediction model,an urban functional area identification model was introduced to identify different functional regions.Finally,the proposed model was validated based on the history of New York City taxi order data and reptiles for weather data.The experimental results show that the prediction precision of our model is obviously superior to the mainstream of the existing prediction methods.

Improved Social Emotion Optimization Algorithm for Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Back-Propagation Neural Network

The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.

Kalman Filter-Based CNN-BiLSTM-ATT Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

To accurately predict traffic flow on the highways,this paper proposes a Convolutional Neural Network-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory-Attention Mechanism(CNN-BiLSTM-Attention)traffic flow prediction model based on Kalman-filtered data processing.Firstly,the original fluctuating data is processed by Kalman filtering,which can reduce the instability of short-term traffic flow prediction due to unexpected accidents.Then the local spatial features of the traffic data during different periods are extracted,dimensionality is reduced through a one-dimensional CNN,and the BiLSTM network is used to analyze the time series information.Finally,the Attention Mechanism assigns feature weights and performs Soft-max regression.The experimental results show that the data processed by Kalman filter is more accurate in predicting the results on the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model.Compared with the CNN-BiLSTM model,the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the Kal-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model is reduced by 17.58 and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)by 12.38,and the accuracy of the improved model is almost free from non-working days.To further verify the model’s applicability,the experiments were re-run using two other sets of fluctuating data,and the experimental results again demonstrated the stability of the model.Therefore,the Kal-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention traffic flow prediction model proposed in this paper is more applicable to a broader range of data and has higher accuracy.

Traffic Flow Prediction with Heterogenous Data Using a Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model

Predicting traffic flow is a crucial component of an intelligent transportation system.Precisely monitoring and predicting traffic flow remains a challenging endeavor.However,existingmethods for predicting traffic flow do not incorporate various external factors or consider the spatiotemporal correlation between spatially adjacent nodes,resulting in the loss of essential information and lower forecast performance.On the other hand,the availability of spatiotemporal data is limited.This research offers alternative spatiotemporal data with three specific features as input,vehicle type(5 types),holidays(3 types),and weather(10 conditions).In this study,the proposed model combines the advantages of the capability of convolutional(CNN)layers to extract valuable information and learn the internal representation of time-series data that can be interpreted as an image,as well as the efficiency of long short-term memory(LSTM)layers for identifying short-term and long-term dependencies.Our approach may utilize the heterogeneous spatiotemporal correlation features of the traffic flowdataset to deliver better performance traffic flow prediction than existing deep learning models.The research findings show that adding spatiotemporal feature data increases the forecast’s performance;weather by 25.85%,vehicle type by 23.70%,and holiday by 14.02%.

Flow Direction Level Traffic Flow Prediction Based on a GCN-LSTM Combined Model

Traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems and is of great significance in the applications of traffic control and urban planning.Due to the complexity of road traffic flow data,traffic flow prediction has been one of the challenging tasks to fully exploit the spatiotemporal characteristics of roads to improve prediction accuracy.In this study,a combined flow direction level traffic flow prediction graph convolutional network(GCN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)model based on spatiotemporal characteristics is proposed.First,a GCN model is employed to capture the topological structure of the data graph and extract the spatial features of road networks.Additionally,due to the capability to handle long-term dependencies,the longterm memory is used to predict the time series of traffic flow and extract the time features.The proposed model is evaluated using real-world data,which are obtained from the intersection of Liuquan Road and Zhongrun Avenue in the Zibo High-Tech Zone of China.The results show that the developed combined GCNLSTM flow direction level traffic flow prediction model can perform better than the single models of the LSTM model and GCN model,and the combined ARIMA-LSTM model in traffic flow has a strong spatiotemporal correlation.

Flow Structure and Short-Term Riverbed Evolution in Curved Flumes

River bending is the major effect responsible for bed topography and bank changes.In this study,fluid velocity(measured by a three-dimensional Doppler advanced point current meter)and bed topographical data have been collected in 40 sections of an experimental model.The whole flume was composed of an organic glass bend,upstream and downstream water tanks,two transition straight sections,a circulation pump,and a connection pipeline.Each section has been found to be characterized by a primary circulation and a small reverse circulation,with some sections even presenting three more or more circulation structures.The minimum circulation intensity has been detected in proximity to the top of the curved channel,while a region with small longitudinal velocity has been observed near the concave bank of each bend,corresponding to the flat bed formed after a short period of scouring.The maximum sediment deposition and scour depth in the presence of a uniform distribution of living flexible vegetation within 10 cm of the flume wall have been found to be smaller than those observed in the tests conducted without vegetation.

Inatorial forecasting method considering macro and micro characteristics of chaotic traffic flow

Traffic flow prediction is an effective strategy to assess traffic conditions and alleviate traffic congestion. Influenced by external non-stationary factors and road network structure, traffic flow sequences have macro spatiotemporal characteristics and micro chaotic characteristics. The key to improving the model prediction accuracy is to fully extract the macro and micro characteristics of traffic flow time sequences. However, traditional prediction model by only considers time features of traffic data, ignoring spatial characteristics and nonlinear characteristics of the data itself, resulting in poor model prediction performance. In view of this, this research proposes an intelligent combination prediction model taking into account the macro and micro features of chaotic traffic data. Firstly, to address the problem of time-consuming and inefficient multivariate phase space reconstruction by iterating nodes one by one, an improved multivariate phase space reconstruction method is proposed by filtering global representative nodes to effectively realize the high-dimensional mapping of chaotic traffic flow. Secondly, to address the problem that the traditional combinatorial model is difficult to adequately learn the macro and micro characteristics of chaotic traffic data, a combination of convolutional neural network(CNN) and convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM) is utilized for capturing nonlinear features of traffic flow more comprehensively. Finally,to overcome the challenge that the combined model performance degrades due to subjective empirical determined network parameters, an improved lightweight particle swarm is proposed for improving prediction accuracy by optimizing model hyperparameters. In this paper, two highway datasets collected by the Caltrans Performance Measurement System(PeMS)are taken as the research objects, and the experimental results from multiple perspectives show that the comprehensive performance of the method proposed in this research is superior to those of the prevalent methods.

Traffic flow of connected and automated vehicles at lane drop on two-lane highway: An optimization-based control algorithm versus a heuristic rules-based algorithm

This paper investigates traffic flow of connected and automated vehicles at lane drop on two-lane highway. We evaluate and compare performance of an optimization-based control algorithm(OCA) with that of a heuristic rules-based algorithm(HRA). In the OCA, the average speed of each vehicle is maximized. In the HRA, virtual vehicle and restriction of the command acceleration caused by the virtual vehicle are introduced. It is found that(i) capacity under the HRA(denoted as C_(H)) is smaller than capacity under the OCA;(ii) the travel delay is always smaller under the OCA, but driving is always much more comfortable under the HRA;(iii) when the inflow rate is smaller than C_(H), the HRA outperforms the OCA with respect to the fuel consumption and the monetary cost;(iv) when the inflow rate is larger than C_(H), the HRA initially performs better with respect to the fuel consumption and the monetary cost, but the OCA would become better after certain time. The spatiotemporal pattern and speed profile of traffic flow are presented, which explains the reason underlying the different performance. The study is expected to help for better understanding of the two different types of algorithm.