Long-term effectiveness,outcomes and complications of bariatric surgery

Dietary imbalance and overeating can lead to an increasingly widespread disease-obesity.Aesthetic considerations aside,obesity is defined as an excess of adipose tissue that can lead to serious health problems and can predispose to a number of pathological changes and clinical diseases,including diabetes;hypertension;atherosclerosis;coronary artery disease and stroke;obstructive sleep apnea;depression;weight-related arthropathies and endometrial and breast cancer.A body weight 20%above ideal for age,gender and height is a severe health risk.Bariatric surgery is a set of surgical methods to treat morbid obesity when other treatments such as diet,increased physical activity,behavioral changes and drugs have failed.The two most common procedures currently used are sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass.This procedure has gained popularity recently and is generally considered safe and effective.Although current data show that perioperative mortality is low and better control of comorbidities and short-term complications is achieved,more randomized trials are needed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of bariatric procedures.This review aims to synthesize and summarize the growing evidence on the long-term effectiveness,outcomes and complications of bariatric surgery.

Medium-term and Long-term Momentum and Contrarian Effects on China during 1994-2004

We examine momentum and contrarian effects in China＇s stock market during 1994-2004 and find that no medium momentum effects exist. Meanwhile, contrarian strategy works effectively over the horizon of 18-36 months. 1-month gap for avoiding bid-ask bounce and lead-lag effect make no considerable change to our empirical results. Transaction costs seem to have no significant impact on contrarian strategies＇ profit.

Short-term Effects of Air Pollution on Mortality in a Heavily Polluted Chinese City

Since the London fog in 1952, numerous epidemioLogical studies have revealed that both short-term and long-term exposure to air pollutants is associated with the development of diseases[1]. Up to date, the assessment of air quality on health and air quality standard establishment in developing countries were mainly relied on extrapolation based on the results from long-term cohort studies conducted in Europe and North America.

Clinical Observation on the Improved Short-Term Effects of Anti-Tumor Purified Chinese Medicine Injection Ai-Jing for 138 Cases with Malignant Tumors

The subjects of this study were to observe the improved short-term effects of anti-tumor purified Chinese medicine injection Ai-Jing for 138 cases with malignant tumors. This was a multi-center clinical study, and a total of 138 patients included 96 males and 42 females, with the age from 60 to 76 years. Ai-Jing has obtained the Chinese invention patent since 2008 (ZL991-03528.3). A novel technique acupoint injection method was adopted. Except for lung cancer, patients with other malignant tumors were injected once every other day, 2 ml each time. A course of treatment needs 6 Ai-Jing injections, lung cancer patients need 10 - 20 Ai-Jing injections. At the same time, patients were treated with traditional medicine decoction. Due to the limited number of cases, cure rate, recovery rate and remission rate were calculated as a whole, respectively 18.12%, 44.20% and 32.15%. All the invalid patients were lung cancer, accounting for 16.67% of the patients treated with lung cancer, and the total treatment inefficiency was 6.52%. Conclusion: Chinese Medicine Injection Ai-Jing extracts the effective components of anti-cancer and tumorigenesis, and has the effects of anti-cancer and tumorigenesis, anti-inflam-matory and analgesic, and repairing body damage, with small toxic and side effects and low cost.

Intratracheally Administered Liposomal α-Tocopherol Protects the Lung against Long-Term Toxic Effects of Paraquat

Paraquat is a broad-spectrum herbicide known to produce lung injury via oxidative stress-mediated mechanisms. Different pharmacological strategies have been explored to reduce the formation of these reactive oxygen species and/or prevent their toxic effects in the treatment of paraquat poisoning. The present study was carried out to investigate whether the antioxidant (L-tocopherol, incorporated into liposomes and delivered directly to the lungs of rats, could protect the organ against the long-term toxic effects of paraquat.Plain liposomes (composed of dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, DPPC) or α-tocopherol liposomes (8 mg α-tocopherol/kg body weight) were administered intratracheally to animals 24 h prior to an intraperitoneal injection of paraquat dichloride (20 mg/kg) and rats wefe killed 0, 1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 19 or 24 days after paraquat treatment. Results of this study showed that lungs of animals treated with paraquat were extensively damaged,as evidenced by significant increases in lung weight and decreases in lung angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) and alkaline phosphatase enzyme (AKP) activities. Moreover,paraquat treatme; resulted in a significant reduction in the number of neutrophils in the blood of rats with a concurrent increase in the pulmonary myeloperoxidase activity,suggestive of neutrophil infiltration in the lungs of treated animals. Pretreatment of rats with liposomes alone did not significantly alter the paraquat-induced changes of all parameters examined. On the other hand, pretreatment of rats with (t-tocopherol liposomes,24 h prior to paraquat challenge, attenuated paraquat-induced changes in ACE, AKP and myeloperoxidase activities but failed to prevent increases in lung weight. Thus, pretreatment of rats with liposome-associated α-tocopherol appears to protect the lung against some of the toxic effects of paraquat

Long-Term Animal Feeding Trial of the Refined Konjac Meal Ⅱ. Effects of the Refined Konjac Meal on the Aging of the Brain, Liver, and Cardiovascular Tissue Cells in Rats

Rats of both sexes were fed on a basal feed containing 1% refined konjac meal (RKM) for 18 months and the effects of RKM on the cell aging were observed. A comparable group fed on the basic feed was used as the control. Results obtained demonstrate that the long-term feeding of RKM to rats can delay the course of cell aging of the gliocyte, cadiomyocyte, and the endothelial cell of the large and medium arteriases, hence it is likely to delay the occurrence of arteriosclerosis and improve the functions of the brain, heart and vascular system.

Long-Term Animal Feeding Trial of the Refined Konjac Meal Ⅰ. Effects of the Refined Konjac Meal on the Calcium and Phosphorus Metabolism and the Bone in Rat

Effects of refined konjac meal (RKM) on the calcium and phosphorus metabolism and bone parameters were observed in rats of both sexes fed with food containing 1% of RKM for 18 months. A comparable group of rats fed on basic diet only was used as a control.Results obtained indicate that all the measured parameters (serum calcium and phosphorus level, femur weight and its calcium and phesphorus content, and the osteometry of the tibia) showed no significant difference between the experimental and the control groups.Thus there is no adverse effect either on the calcium and phosphorus metabolism or on the bone after a long-term intake at a moderate dosage.

Long-term effects of biodegradable versus durable polymercoated sirolimus-eluting stents on arterial wall morphology as assessed by virtual histology intravascular ultrasound

Objectives To assess long-term coronary arterial response to biodegradable polymer-coated sirolimus-eluting stent(BSES) in vivo by using virtual histology intravascular ultrasound(VH-IVUS).Methods 41 patients were enrolled in this study and VH-IVUS was performed to assess the native artery vascular responses to BSES compared with durable polymer-coated SES(DSES) during long-term follow-up(median =8 months).The presence of necrotic core abutting to the lumen was evaluated at follow-up.Results With similar in-stent late luminal loss(0.15[0.06,0.30]vs 0.19[0.03, 0.30]mm,P=0.772),the overall incidence of necrotic core abutting to the lumen was significantly less in BSES than DSES group(44%vs.63%,P=0.019)(proximal 18%,stented site 14%and distal 12%in BSES group,proximal 19%, stented site 28%and distal 16%in DSES group).Compared with stented segments each other,the DSES -treated segments had a significant higher incidence of necrotic core abutting to the lumen through the stent struts(73%vs.36%, P=0.005).In addition,more multiple necrotic core abutting to the lumen was observed in DSES group(overall:63%vs. 36%,P=0.015).Furthermore,among the total number of stented segments with necrotic core abutting to the lumen, DSES -treated lesions had more multiple necrotic core abutting to the lumen through the stent struts than BSES -treated lesions in evidence(74%vs.33%,P=0.027).Conclusions By VH-IVUS analysis at follow-up,a greater frequency of stable lesion morphometry was shown in lesions treated with BSESs compared with lesions treated with DSESs.The major reason was BSES produced less toxicity to the arterial wall and facilitated neointimal healing as a result of polymer coating on drug-eluting stent(DES) surface biodegraded as time went by.

A comparison of the short-term effects of fixed platform versus rotating high-fiexion prosthesis for the patients with osteoarthrities of knee

Objective To compare the preliminary clinical outcome between fixed platform and rotating high-flexion prosthesis following total knee replacement(TKR).Methods Form January 2007 to December 2009,68 patients with osteoarthritis of

Addition of Urban Waste to Semiarid Degraded Soil:Long-term Effect

The addition of municipal solid wastes （MSW） is considered as a possible strategy for soil rehabilitation in southeast Spain. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term （17 years） effect of five doses of MSW addition on the microbiological, biochemical, and physical properties of semiarid soil. Increased values of several parameters that serve as indicators of general microbiological activity, such as, basal respiration, adenosine triphosphate （ATP） or dehydrogenase activity; microbial population size （microbial biomass C）, and extracellular hydrolase activity related to macronutrient cycles, such as, urease, 3-glucosidase, and N-a-benzoyl-L-argininamide protease, were observed in the amended soils. The highest MSW doses showed the highest values in these hydrolase activities. The incorporation of municipal waste resulted in a more dense development of the plant cover, 50% greater in higher doses than in the control treatment, which generated a substantial increase in several C fractions. Total organic carbon reached 12 g kg^-1 soil with the highest MSW doses, compared to 4.30 g kg^-1 soil in the control treatment. The physical properties of the soil were also improved, showing greater percentage of stable aggregates and water holding capacity. Positive correlation coefficients between C fractions and parameters related to microbial activity and aggregate stability were observed. Although these improvements were greater in the soils receiving the highest doses of organic amendment, the increases were not proportional to the amount added, demonstrating the existence of a threshold, above which an increase in the amount of organic matter added is not reflected in an increase in the soil＇s physical, biochemical, and microbiological properties. However, the addition of municipal solid wastes proved its suitability for improving soil quality, thereby indicating the potential of such an amendment, to prevent desertification in Mediterranean areas such as those studied.

The detrimental effects of lipopolysaccharideinduced neuroinflammation on adult hippocampal neurogenesis depend on the duration of the pro-inflammatory response

Adult hippocampal neurogenesis is a finely tuned process regulated by extrinsic factors. Neuroinflammation is a hallmark of several pathological conditions underlying dysregulation of neurogenesis. In animal models, lipopolysaccharide(LPS)-induced neuroinflammation leads to a neurogenic decrease mainly associated to the early inflammatory response. However, it is not well understood how the neuroinflammatory response progresses over time and if neurogenesis continues to be diminished during the late neuroinflammatory response. Moreover, it is unknown if repeated intermittent administration of LPS along time induces a greater reduction in neurogenesis. We administered one single intraperitoneal injection of LPS or saline or four repeated injections(one per week) of LPS or saline to young-adult mice. A cohort of new cells was labeled with three 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine injections(one per day) 4 days after the last LPS injection. We evaluated systemic and neuroinflammation-associated parameters and compared the effects of the late neuroinflammatory response on neurogenesis induced by each protocol. Our results show that 1) a single LPS injection leads to a late pro-inflammatory response characterized by microglial activation, moderate astrocytic reaction and increased interleukin-6 levels. This response correlates in time with decreased neurogenesis and 2) a repeated intermittent injection of LPS does not elicit a late pro-inflammatory response although activated microglia persists. The latter profile is not accompanied by a continued longterm hippocampal neurogenic decrease. Hereby, we provide evidence that the neuroinflammatory response is a dynamic process that progresses in a milieu-dependent manner and does not necessarily lead to a neurogenic decrease, highlighting the complex interaction between the immune system and neurogenesis.

Evaluation of the long-term effect of foldable capsular vitreous bodies in severe ocular rupture

AIM:To evaluate the long-term effect of foldable capsular vitreous body(FCVB)in the treatment of severe ocular rupture to provide a practical basis for clinical selection.METHODS:A total of 26 patients(26 eyes),23 men and 3 women,with severe ocular rupture who underwent FCVB implantation between March 2018 and September 2018 were retrospectively analysed.All open ocular wounds located in zone III,with preoperative visual acuity grade IV and above(Snellen less than 4/200).The best corrected visual acuity(BCVA),intraocular pressure(IOP),cornea,anterior chamber,iris,lens,choroid,and retina were evaluated before and after the surgery.The subjective feeling and the location of FCVB were also assessed.RESULTS:The average age of the 26 patients was 36y(20-60y).Postoperative follow-up was from 10 to 14mo.At the end of follow up,BCVA was light perception(LP)in 10 cases,no light perception(NLP)in 13 cases,hand motions(HM)in 3 cases.IOP was 11±5 mm Hg.Corneal degeneration was in 3 cases and corneal endothelial dystrophy was in 7 cases.Shallow anterior chamber was in 8 cases and hyphema was in 8 cases.Organized membrane in the pupil was in 14 cases.Epiphora occurred in 3 cases.FCVB drainage tube exposed in 3 cases.All FCVBs were in their normal location and no rejection occurred.CONCLUSION:FCVB implantation is a long-term effective treatment and may provide a practical selection for severe ocular rupture.

LONG-TERM EFFECT OF HOMOHARRINGTONINE ON CHRONIC GRANULOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

Objective: To observe the long-term effect of homoharringtonine (HHT) on chronic granulocytic leukemia (CGL) and its pharmacological mechanism. Methods: 76 patients with newly diagnosed early chronic phase CGL received treatment of merely 1.5 mg/m2 daily HHT for induction remission and long-term maintenance treatment. The apoptosis rate of bone marrow CD34+ cells induced by HHT was assayed with flow cytometer. Results: 86.8% patients achieved CHR, 13.2% patients PHR and 31.8% patients got cytogenetic response in HHT treatment group, which was longer than 31 (8-54) months in hydroxyurea (HU) group (P<0.05). The effect of apoptosis induction HHT was stronger on CGL-CP patients bone marrow CD34+ cells than on normal person bone marrow CD34+ cells. Conclusion: HHT is a very effective drug for remission induction and long-term maintenance treatment in early chronic phase CGL patients.

Tumor-feeding artery diameter reduction is associated with improved short-term effect of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy plus lenvatinib treatment

BACKGROUND Recently,hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy(HAIC)plus lenvatinib has been frequently used to treat unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma(uHCC)in China.In the clinic,the hepatic arteries of some patients shrink significantly during this treatment,leading to improved short-term efficacy.AIM To investigate the relationship between the shrinkage of hepatic arteries and the short-term effect of HAIC plus lenvatinib treatment.METHODS Sixty-seven participants with uHCC were enrolled in this retrospective study.The patients received HAIC every 3 wk,followed by oral lenvatinib after the first HAIC course.Hepatic artery diameters were measured on CT before treatment and after 1 and 2 mo of treatment.Meanwhile,the changes in tumor capillaries were also examined on pathological specimens before and after 1 mo of treatment.The antitumor response after 1,3,and 6 mo of treatment was assessed using the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors(mRECIST).The relationship between the changes in vessel diameters and the short-term effect of the combination treatment was evaluated by receiver-operating characteristic and logistic regression analyses.RESULTS The hepatic artery diameters were all significantly decreased after 1 and 2 mo of treatment(P<0.001),but there was no difference in the vessel diameters between 1 and 2 mo(P>0.05).The microvessel density in the tumor lesions decreased significantly after 1 mo of combination treatment(P<0.001).According to mRECIST,46,41,and 24 patients had complete or partial responses after 1,3,and 6 mo of treatment,respectively,whereas 21,21,and 32 patients had a stable or progressive disease at these times,respectively.Shrinkage of the tumor-feeding artery was significantly associated with the tumor response after 1,3,and 6 mo of treatment(P<0.001,P=0.004,and P=0.023,respectively);however,changes in other hepatic arteries were not significantly associated with the tumor response.Furthermore,shrinkage of the tumor-feeding artery was an independent factor for treatment efficacy(P=0.001,P=0.001,and P=0.002 and 1,3,and 6 mo,respectively).CONCLUSION The hepatic arteries shrank rapidly after treatment with HAIC plus lenvatinib,and shrinkage of the tumor-feeding artery diameter was closely related to improved short-term efficacy.

The Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Short-term Cumulative Effect of Air Particulate in Tianjin

In order to reveal the rapid increase mechanism of particulate concentration in short time,a notion of short-term cumulative effect of air particulate is defined as the significant increase of pollutant concentration in a short time under the condition of breeze,stable weather and constant emission caused by human being's activities. Subsequently,an index of short-term cumulative effect is established with air diffusive equation,and then the macro-scale meteorological situation and micro-scale factors of forming the short-term cumulative effect are discussed with the observation data. The macro-scale meteorological variables contain upper-level weather situations and surface weather situations. The micro-scale factors mainly include the boundary-layer height and boundary-layer stability. The analyses show that boundary-layer factors and weather variables have a significant influence on the short-term cumulative effect. The notion of short-term cumulative effect will play an important role in interpreting the severe pollution weather.

Effect of Short-Term Exposure to Mercuric Chloride on the Air-Breathing Catfish,Heteropneustes fossilis──Ⅱ.Scanning Electron Microscopic Study of the Gill

Alterations in the respiratory epithelium of gills of a catfish, Heteropneustes fossilis by the sublethal and lethal concentrations of HgCl2 have been observcd using scanning electron microscope. Fish exposed to 0.1 ppm shows a thin coat ot mucus, but the continuous layer of mucus is not retained in 0.3 ppm after 24 h of exposure. Epithelial cells of the gill filament are hyperplastic. Other changcs in the respiratory epithelium are contraction of epithelium, formation of interlamellar bridge and diminishing number of microridges. Massive destruction of the respiratory epithelium by deep lesions and sloughing of epithelial layer in 0.5 and 1.0 ppm solutions after 6-12 h of exposure apparently causes death to the fish. SEM observations are well in conformity with the findings made at light microscopic level

Statistical Transformation Indicators of Short-Term to Long-Term Using Flood Regional Coefficients (Case Study: East Azarbaijan Province, Iran)

Changing contexts in a long-term and short-term perspective should be managed within an integrated risk management framework that accounts for both temporary management strategies and permanent preventive measures to reduce the impact of natural hazard processes. In this study, statistical transformation indicators of short-term (20 year) to long-term (30 year) used flood regional coefficients. After the tests of data validation and the reconstruction of missing and outlier data, the data of 18 hydrometric stations were completed for 30 years (1985 to 2014). In the next phase, the return period values were prepared for 20-year and 30-year statistical periods (1985 to 2004 and 1985 to 2014) using the HYFA software. Thus the 20-year to 30-year ratio for various return period discharges obtained and these dimensionless values were plotted for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, also fitted the logarithmic trend line and the values of coefficients of the relationship were obtained. The statistics including average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation (CV), skewness coefficient (CS) and Kurtosis coefficient (CK) were calculated for 20-year data period for each station and we identified the statistics as independent parameters and the coefficients of A and B as dependent parameter, thus analyzed using linear multivariate regression, and regional factors were obtained. In the hydrometric station with 17-027 code, the discharge using the regional factors was calculated and compared with the discharge values of 30 years data. The results showed that there is little difference between the observed and estimated values from regional factors thus this method can be used in projects that require at least 30 years of data.

Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cance

While in chronic diseases, such as diabetes, mortalityrates slowly increases with age, in oncological seriesmortality usually changes dramatically during thefollow-up, often in an unpredictable pattern. Forinstance, in gastric cancer mortality peaks in thefirst two years of follow-up and declines thereafter.Also several risk factors, such as TNM stage, largelyaffect mortality in the first years after surgery, whileafterward their effect tends to fade. Temporal trendsin mortality were compared between a gastric cancerseries and a cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Forthis purpose, 937 patients, undergoing curativegastrectomy with D1/D2/D3 lymphadenectomy forgastric cancer in three GIRCG （Gruppo Italiano RicercaCancro Gastrico = Italian Research Group for GastricCancer） centers, were compared with 7148 type 2diabetic patients from the Verona Diabetes Study. Inthe early/advanced gastric cancer series, mortality fromrecurrence peaked to 200 deaths per 1000 personyears1 year after gastrectomy and then declined,becoming lower than 40 deaths per 1000 person-yearsafter 5 years and lower than 20 deaths after 8 years.Mortality peak occurred earlier in more advanced Tand N tiers. At variance, in the Verona diabetic cohort overall mortality slowly increased during a 10-yearfollow-up, with ageing of the type 2 diabetic patients.Seasonal oscillations were also recorded, mortalitybeing higher during winter than during summer. Alsothe most important prognostic factors presented adifferent temporal pattern in the two diseases： whilethe prognostic significance of T and N stage markedlydecrease over time, differences in survival amongpatients treated with diet, oral hypoglycemic drugsor insulin were consistent throughout the follow-up.Time variations in prognostic significance of main riskfactors, their impact on survival analysis and possiblesolutions were evaluated in another GIRCG series of568 patients with advanced gastric cancer, undergoingcurative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy.Survival curves in the two different histotypes （intestinaland mixed/diffuse） were superimposed in the first threeyears of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise,survival curves as a function of site （fundus vs body/antrum） started to diverge after the first year. On thecontrary, survival curves differed among age classesfrom the very beginning, due to different post-operativemortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years;this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, theproportional hazards assumption of the Cox modelwas violated, as regards age, site and histology. Tocope with this problem, multivariable survival analysiswas performed by separately considering either thefirst two years of follow-up or subsequent years.Histology and site were significant predictors only aftertwo years, while T and N, although significant bothin the short-term and in the long-term, became lessimportant in the second part of follow-up. Increasingage was associated with higher mortality in the firsttwo years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival timewhen performing survival analysis allows to distinguishbetween short-term and long-term risk factors.Alternative statistical solutions could be to excludepost-operative mortality, to introduce in the modeltime-dependent covariates or to stratify on variablesviolating proportionality assumption.

Long-term effect of Chinese herbal medicine Tianqi Capsule on the incidence ofdiabetes： an 8-year cohort study protocol

Background： The rapid growth of type 2 diabetes mellitus （T2DM） remains a big challenge for clinicians worldwide.Traditional Chinese medicine may bring a new approach for solving this problem. The Tianqi Capsule DiabetesPrevention Study （REDUCES Study） reported that 1 years of therapy with Tianqi capsule reduced the risk of diabetes by32.1% compared with the placebo. Here we aimed to assess the long-term effect of Tianqi capsule on prevention ofT2DM in people with impaired glucose tolerance after discontinuation of active intervention. Methods/design： 420subjects will be followed-up for 8 years to assess the long-term effect of Tianqi capsule intervention. The causes of deathand the status of living subjects will be investigated. Follow-up data for living subjects will be collected by personalinterview and clinical examination and medical record review to determine diabetes status. Questionnaires will be givento all the subjects to investigate the factors that probably affect the diabetes status during the 8-year of discontinuation ofintervention. The primary outcome is the incidence of T2DM, and the secondary outcomes are body mass index, bloodglucose, blood lipids and blood pressure. The Cox proportional hazards model will be used to estimate the hazard ratiofor diabetes incidence. Analyses will be done with SAS 8.2 software package. Discussion： Results from this study mayprovide evidence for the long-term efficacy of Tianqi capsule in patients with prediabetes. The findings will provide abasis for further confirmatory studies. Ethics： The protocol has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee ofGuang’anmen Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences （approval number 2016-046-KY-01）. Studyregistration number： ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT02848053.

Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market

Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.