Short-term and imminent geomagnetic anomalies of the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake and exploration on earthquake forecast

The diurnal variation of the geomagnetic vertical component is exhibited mainly by changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. Based on data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observatories in China for many years, the anomalous features of the appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations （i.e, low-point time） of the geo- magnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution （i.e, phenomena of low-point displacement） have been studied before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The strong aftershocks after two months＇ quiescence of M6 aftershocks of the Ms8.0 event were forecasted based on these studies. There are good correlativities between these geomagnetic anoma- lies and occurrences of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur near the boundary line of sudden changes of the low-point time and generally within four days before or after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of the appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the imminent anomalies in diurnal-variation amplitudes near the epicentral areas have also been studied before the Wenchuan earthquake.

Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.

Geomagnetic diurnal-variation anomalies and their relation to strong earthquakes

The diurnal-variation anomalies of the vertical-component in geomagnetic field are mainly the changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. On the basis of data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observato- ries in China for many years, the anomalous features of appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations (i.e, low-point time) of the geomagnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution (i.e, phe- nomena of low-point displacement) have been studied before over 30 strong earthquakes with MS≥6.6 such as Kunlunshan MS=8.1 earthquake on November 14, 2001; Bachu-Jashi MS=6.8 earthquake on February 24, 2003; Xiaojin MS=6.6 earthquake on September 22, 1989, etc. There are good relations between such rare phenomena of geomagnetic anomalies and the occurrence of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur in the vicinity of the boundary line of sudden change of the low-point displacement and generally within four days before and after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the anomalies of diurnal-variation amplitude near the epicentral area have been also studied before Kunlunshan MS=8.1 earthquake and Bachu-Jiashi MS=6.8 earthquake.

Recurrence anomaly of ground water behavior before strong earthquakes in North China

By analyzing the relationship between ground water behavior and strong seismic activity during the past more than 20 years in North China, we have found similar water level descending variation of a part of wells in the short-term stage before several strong earthquakes. The characteristics of anomaly are: at the beginning, water level dropped abruptly or accelerated to drop; then it turned to slow rising with a smaller amplitude than that of descending; earthquakes occurred during the slow-rising process of water level, and at that time or before earthquake occurrence, water level rose with a large amplitude. Among more than 100 wells in North China, the descending anomalies were not recorded for many times, but similar variation processes of water level were noted at different wells before several strong earthquakes, which proves that seismic precursory anomalies of ground water are of certain recurrence features, occurring repeatedly before different strong earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the genesis of this type of anomaly and its relationship with strong seismic activity.

Relationship between crustal magnetic anomalies and strong earthquake activity in the south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt

The south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt is located in the southeast margin of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.This region is characterized by the frequent seismic activity in Chinese mainland.In this paper,the geomagnetic field model NGDC-720 and the data of terrestrial heat flow are used to investigate the distribution of crustal magnetic anomalies,the depth of Curie surface,and the characteristics of the crustal thermal structure in the south segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.The distribution characteristics of the vertical component AZ and the magnetic declination AD in the area with earthquakes over a magnitude of 6 and their aftershocks since 1970 are focused on.The results show that the earthquakes are mainly observed in the area of negative magnetic anomaly or the strong and weak transition zone.It especially shows in the AD.The Curie surface in the study area varies significantly,ranging from 20.8 to 31 km.The uplift area of the Curie surface is consistent with the high-value area of terrestrial heat flow.The high geothermal area corresponds to the strong earthquake activity area.The focal depth of most strong earthquakes is shallower than the depth of the Curie surface.The strong earthquakes mainly occur in the deep-shallow transition zones of the Curie surface.The results can be used as a reference for strong earthquake prediction in this area.

Analysis of Thermal Infrared Anomalies for the April16,2013M_W7.8of Khash, Iran Earthquake

After using the "Time-Frequency Relative Power Spectrum"( T-F RPS) method based on the China Geostationary Meteorological Satellite( FY-2 C/FY-2 E) infrared remote sensing brightness temperature data processing,we rapidly and accurately extracted and identified pre-earthquake thermal infrared anomalies for the April 16,2013 MW7. 8 of Khash,Iran Earthquake. Spatial evolution of anomalies showed the distribution and process. The anomalies were mainly distributed in the east of Khash,Iran. The characteristics of process and distribution presented X-Type model of NE and near NS strip which relates to the geological structure of this region. The epicenter was located near the intersection region of the X-Type abnormal migration process. Besides,the results of time series of anomalies showed that,the duration was more than 40 days and the maximum amplitude was about18 times. The earthquake occurred 20 days after the abnormal maximum amplitude which appeared on March 26,2013.

Study on Relation Between Dynamic Pattern of Regional Vertical Strain Rate and Several Strong Earthquakes such as Lijiang(M_s7.0)and Menyuan(M_s6.4)Earthquakes

Making use of the method of obtaining regional vertical strain rate from regional preciseleveling data and gaining dynamic pattern combining with deformation data on spanningfaults, the regional vertical strain dynamic evolution characteristics of several moderatelystrong earthquakes such as Lijiang (M_s 7.0) and Menyuan (M_s 6.4) earthquakes occurredin crustal deformation monitoring areas located in the western Yunnan and Qilianshan-Hexiregion. Based on the above-mentioned facts, by studying the time-space nonhomogeneity andstrain energy accumulation status, some criteria for judging the medium. and short-termstrong seismic risk regions according to the regional vertical strain rate dynamic informationare proposed.

A Study on the Characteristics of Anomalies and Their Dynamic Relationship before the April 14, 2010 M_S 7.1 Yushu Earthquake

The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.

Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

Anomalous Ionospheric foF2 Variations Observed Prior to the Dalbandin Earthquake in Pakistan

Ionosphereic foF2 variations are very sensitive to the seismic effect and results of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes seem to very hopeful for short-term earthquake prediction. On January 18,2011 at 20: 23 UT a great earthquake( M = 7. 2)occurred in Dalbandin( 28. 73° N,63. 92° E),Pakistan. In this study,we have tried to find out the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by using the hourly day time( 08. 00 a. m.- 05. 00 p. m.) data of critical frequency( foF2) obtained by three vertical sounding stations installed in Islamabad( 33. 78°N,73. 06°E),Multan( 32. 26°N,71. 51°E) and Karachi( 24. 89° N,67. 02° E), Pakistan. The results show the significant anomalies of foF2 in the earthquake preparation zone several days prior to the Dalbandin earthquake. It is also observed that the amplitude and frequency of foF2 anomalies are more prominent at the nearest station to the epicenter as compared to those stations near the outer margin of the earthquake preparation zone. The confidence level for ionospheric anomalies regarding the seismic signatures can be enhanced by adding the analysis of some other ionospheic parameters along with critical frequency of the layer F2.

Relocation of the October 9, 1505 Earthquake with M63/4

There have been 12 possible locations of the earthquakes occurring in the South Yellow Sea since 1505.In this paper,the location of the earthquake that occurred in 1505 has been determined by the collection of more historical data of the influenced field,referring the isoseismal data of earthquakes with the epicentral intensityⅨ and combining geophysical field data with tectonic condition,due to its great influence on seismic safety assessment of some significant engineering.

Major Earthquakes in and Around Yunnan Province and Variations of Astronomical Time-Latitude Residuals Determined by Yunnan Observatory

In this paper,the features of medium-term anomalies for strong earthquakes and the criteria for the prediction of such earthquakes are discussed,as well as the feasibility of applying the anomalies of astronomical time-latitude residuals to earthquake prediction and their limitation when applied to imminent-term prediction.The criteria used to identify the anomalies of time-latitude residuals for M≥6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan Province and for M≥7.0 earthquakes around Yunnan are also discussed.The last strong earthquake in the data used for testing passed the whole process of earthquake prediction practice.In addition,some special features of the case in which anomalies appeared but no strong earthquake followed are also discussed.

Example of research on relation between satellite thermal infrared anomaly and strong earthquake

People pay more and more attention to the coupling relation between ground and air.In seismogenic process, thermal anomaly and temperature redistribution are generated not onlyin source region but also in its surrounding areas. This causes various thermal effects

2021年以来青海3次强震前地下流体重点异常特征分析

1震前异常统计2021—2022年期间,青海省内发生3次中强地震,分别为2021年5月22玛多M_(S)7.4地震、2022年1月8日门源M_(S)6.9地震、2022年3月26日德令哈M_(S)6.0地震。玛多M_(S)7.4地震前,甘青地区地下流体测项存在7项异常,分别是门源静水位、共和浅层水温(2套)、共和逸出气氡、佐署动水位、玉树浅层水温、嘉峪关气氡、武山水氡,其中门源静水位、共和浅层水温(2套)、共和逸出气氡、佐署动水位及玉树浅层水温异常在震前出现突出短临变化。

形变、大旱、地磁、静电场等震前异常关联性

1研究背景大震前期有地形变异常、干旱少雨;震前出现地磁异常、静电场异常;大震发生后常发生倾盆大雨。这些现象被不同的学科不同的专家发现,总结发表了很多成果,但用于指导地震预报也面临一些困惑。研究发现,这些不同学科发现的异常,在机理解释上推测的成分比较多,更没有尝试将不同学科发现的异常作为一个整体寻求统一机理的解释,以至于解释的可信程度较低。在这一背景下,本文试图从形变异常机理出发,拟对大震前出现的这几种异常的关联性进行分析研究,从机理上探索相互之间的可能存在的有机联系,在多学科交叉思考的基础上,另辟蹊径,期望找出可能存在的统一机理解释。

自然正交函数方法在强震预测中应用

1研究背景许多著名学者一致认为自然正交函数方法是预测、评估和检验大规模数据中短期和长期变化的最先进工具(Dawson,2016;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021)。然而自然正交函数方法最先应用在大气、气候和气象预测上(马开玉等,1993),近年来该方法逐渐应用在强震预测研究中。在中国,采用正交函数方法计算强震前的能量场(杨明芝,2004)、应变场(杨明芝,2017;罗国富,2023)和频次场(罗国富,2023),提取场的时间和空间异常信息,分析与强震的关系。在日本、印度以及欧美国家,采用经验正交函数方法计算强震前后的变形场(Chang,2011;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021),分析强震的同震变形,给出三维变形的运动方向。

基于改进图像信息方法的地震电离层异常信息提取

1研究背景。图像信息方法(Pattern Informatics Method,简写为PI)是由Rundle等(2000,2002)基于复杂性物理提出的应用于地震活动研究的统计物理方法,在测震学的中长期地震预测研究中表现出较好的预测效能。武安绪等(2011)在地壳岩石破裂过程中可能辐射电磁信号的理论基础上对PI算法在空间归一化、阈值形式、累计方式、空间概率等改进后得到MPI方法,并基于DEMETER卫星电离层观测资料进行震例回溯性研究。

四川泸定M_(S)6.8强震前鲜水河断裂带气电异常分析

1研究背景为了提前感知地震发生以达到减灾、避灾的目的,各圈层之间的耦合机理(张学民等,2022)以及很多地震前兆信号一直被人们广泛关注,如:电离层电子密度异常、氡气浓度异常、离子浓度异常等。这些前兆信号的时间尺度为震前十几天,甚至数月。但目前上述短临前兆无法判断震中位置以及无法确定哪天发震。面对这一难题,如果存在强震前小时尺度的前兆信号如大气静电异常将会等吸引很多研究人员在这个方向上加大投入。

强矿震预测的研究

基于中尺度地震实验场高密度数字地震和潮汐形变台网的现场观测,用地震学方法和小波工具分析强矿震过程采集到的数据.发现震前短临阶段存在可信的b值、η值、频度等地震学异常和定点潮汐形变前兆异常.对异常信息的提取方法和强矿震短临阶段的预测进行了探讨.