By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper prese...By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.展开更多
This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method ...This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.展开更多
Based on the hourly precipitation data from 4 observation stations of Xining City from June to September during 2005-2011,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-time precipitation were analyzed...Based on the hourly precipitation data from 4 observation stations of Xining City from June to September during 2005-2011,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-time precipitation were analyzed.The results show that the precipitation distribution in Xining region exhibited the less-more-less trend from southwest to northeast,while the torrential rain gradually increased from the northwest and southwest to the middle.The hourly general precipitation in Xining region had obviously seasonal characteristics,and its annual distribution showed wavy changes,but the annual variation of short-time heavy precipitation and rainstorm was very obvious.Furthermore,short-time heavy precipitation was concentrated from 18:00 to 24:00,followed by 03:00-07:00 on the following day.The occurrence time of short-time rainstorm accorded with short-time heavy precipitation.It offers a useful reference for the accurate and timely short-term forecast.展开更多
A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)...A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.展开更多
The northeastern China cold vortex(NCCV)plays an important role in regional rainstorms over East Asia.Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis dataset and the Global Precipitation Measu...The northeastern China cold vortex(NCCV)plays an important role in regional rainstorms over East Asia.Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis dataset and the Global Precipitation Measurement product,an objective algorithm for identifying heavy-precipitation NCCV(HPCV)events was designed,and the climatological features of 164 HPCV events from 2001 to 2019 were investigated.The number of HPCV events showed an upward linear trend,with the highest frequency of occurrence in summer.The most active region of HPCV samples was the Northeast China Plain between 40°–55°N.Most HPCV events lasted 3–5 days and had radii ranging from 250 to 1000 km.The duration of HPCV events with larger sizes was longer.About half of the HPCV events moved into(moved out of)the definition region(35°–60°N,115°–145°E),and half initiated(dissipated)within the region.The initial position was close to the western boundary of the definition region,and the final position was mainly near the eastern boundary.The locations associated with the precipitation were mostly concentrated within 2000 km southeast of the HPCV systems,and they were farther from the center in the cold season than in the warm season.展开更多
In order to better understand the formation mechanism of rainstorm in China and promote disaster prevention and reduction, based on the meteorological data of National Meteorological Information Center and Japan Meteo...In order to better understand the formation mechanism of rainstorm in China and promote disaster prevention and reduction, based on the meteorological data of National Meteorological Information Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, this paper draws the isobaric surface map of 850 hPa and 500 hPa, relative humidity and precipitation distribution map. In this study, synoptic methods were used to analyze the heavy precipitation process in North China from August 23th to 24th, 2020. The results show that 1) The formation of short-term heavy precipitation requires sufficient water vapor and very strong upward movement;2) the heavy precipitation in August 23th to 24th 2020 in North China was influenced by the upper-level trough line, cold vortex and cold front, which made the warm and cold air strongly converge over North China, resulting in strong convective weather;3) the heavy rainfall over North China was also influenced by Typhoon Bawei, which caused maximum precipitation and air humidity.展开更多
By means of conceptual model prediction, two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen on June 12th and 14th, 2008 were analyzed from the aspects of real precipitation, weather situation, physical parameter ...By means of conceptual model prediction, two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen on June 12th and 14th, 2008 were analyzed from the aspects of real precipitation, weather situation, physical parameter and radar echo. The results showed that two short-time strong precipitation processes had complete different weather backgrounds, so physical quantities which could reflect atmospheric thermal and dynamic characteristic were different, as well as the characteristic and evolution process of radar echo, and it revealed that two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen had various formation mechanisms and evolution processes. Therefore, many data should be combined to grasp different vantage points in precipitation forecast.展开更多
In order to fill the gaps of the research on the data of automatic weather stations(referred to as automatic stations)not used for the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Pr...In order to fill the gaps of the research on the data of automatic weather stations(referred to as automatic stations)not used for the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province,the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province were compared and analyzed based on the hourly precipitation data of the automatic stations and the national weather stations(referred to as the national stations)from April to September during 2010-2019.The results show that the average state of maximum hourly precipitation of all stations(the automatic stations and the national stations)and national stations both are representative,but the data of all stations are more representative when the maximum hourly precipitation is extreme.The 99.5 th quantile is the most reasonable threshold of extremely short-time severe precipitation in each station.The spatial distribution of extremely short-time severe precipitation intensity in all stations and national stations is generally that the southern region is stronger than the northern region,and the intensity values are concentrated in the range of 40-50 mm/h.All stations data can better reflect the distribution characteristics of<40 and≥50 mm/h.The national stations data underestimates the precipitation intensity in the southern and northeastern marginal areas of Guizhou,and slightly exaggerates the precipitation intensity in the northern part of Guizhou.The monthly and diurnal variations of the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations and national stations are very obvious and the variation trend is the same,but the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation has no obvious monthly variation characteristics.There is no significant diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations,but the diurnal variation in the data of national stations is significant.Since the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in national stations is less,the diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations is more statistically significant.展开更多
Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitation- concentration degree (PCD)and precipitation-concentration period (PCP)ofdifferentintensity durative precipitation eventswere calculate...Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitation- concentration degree (PCD)and precipitation-concentration period (PCP)ofdifferentintensity durative precipitation eventswere calculated to analyze theirstatisticalcharacteristics,mainly including spatial and temporaldistributions,variations and climatic trends ofthe two parameters ofthe durative heavy precipitation events in China.Itis proved thatthese two parameters ofheavy rainfallcan display the temporalinhomogeneity in the precipitation field.And itis also found thatthere is a good positive relationship between the precipitation-concentration degree and annualrainfallamountin the Eastern and CentralChina.Thismethod can beapplied in flood assessmentand climatechangefields.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze one strong precipitation process in Northern Guangxi from May 27 to 28 in 2010.[Method] By dint of 2.5×2.5 NCEP reanalysis data,physical quantities such as the water vapor flux,...[Objective] The aim was to analyze one strong precipitation process in Northern Guangxi from May 27 to 28 in 2010.[Method] By dint of 2.5×2.5 NCEP reanalysis data,physical quantities such as the water vapor flux,pseudo-equivalent temperature,Non-geotropic wet Q vector in one front rainstorm process in north Guangxi from May 27 to 28 in 2010 was expounded.The forecast application of Non-geotropic wet Q vector in rainstorm falling area in Guangxi during early flood period was discussed.[Result] The water vapor in Bay of Bengal transported to Guangxi and formed convergence lifting movement in north Guangxi,which provided favorable water vapor transportation condition for the generation of strong precipitation in north Guangxi.The 850 hPa pseudo-equivalent temperature front (close area) moved southward to the north part of Guangxi.North Guangxi was in pseudo-equivalent temperature area.The highly wet unstable energy of lower layer and the cold air penetrating downward from the middle layer led to potential instability in the lower level established in northern Guangxi,which thus provided certain thermal condition for the strong precipitation process;Northern Guangxi was in the overlap region of the maximum gradient region of contour Qx at 850 hPa and stronger negative areas of ▽Q,which provided favorable dynamic condition for the rainstorm process in northern Guangxi in the future.[Conclusion] The study provided reference in accordance to the forecast of rainstorm.展开更多
Soil washing, ex situ mechanical technique, is one of the few permanent treatment alternatives to remove metal contaminants from soils by employing physical separation based on mineral processing technologies to remov...Soil washing, ex situ mechanical technique, is one of the few permanent treatment alternatives to remove metal contaminants from soils by employing physical separation based on mineral processing technologies to remove discrete particles or metal-bearing particles and/or chemical extraction based on leaching or dissolving process to extract the metals from the soils into an aqueous solution. However, washwater remained from soil washing process contains discrete particulate particles along with heavy metals as solution phase to be treated separately, as well as this process can produce large amount of sludge that requires further treatment, slow metal precipitation, poor settling, the aggregation of metal precipitates. Electrical treatments including electrocoagulation and electrolysis can be effective in removing these substances from washwater. This paper reviews the theoretical models in applying electrocoagulation and electrolysis to remove heavy metals and discrete particulate particles in washwater by examining and comparing the status of washwater treatment technologies which have been undertaken, mostly in the US and EU for the period 1990-2012.展开更多
In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Prec...In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(RHPEs)are defined and investigated.In this study,TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(TRHPEs),which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events.Based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE)and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)to define TPE,temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as TRHPE.With daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018,86 TRHPEs have been identified.TRHPEs contribute as much as 20%of the RHPEs,but100%of events with extreme individual precipitation intensities.The major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall,indicating a role of post landfall precipitation.The frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends,consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 mm.More frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990-2018 than1960-89.The roles of cyclone translation speed and"shifts"in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends.展开更多
In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic r...In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic research on short-term heavy precipitation events in Shanxi Province. Based on hourly precipitation data during the flood season (May to September) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi, China in 1980-2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season are analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the short-time heavy rainfall in the flood season in Shanxi Province is mainly at the grade of 20 - 30 mm/h, with an average of 97 stations having short-time heavy rainfall each year, accounting for 89% of the total stations. The short-time heavy rainfall mainly concentrated in July and August, and the maximal rain intensity in history appeared at 23 - 24 on June 17, 1991 in Yongji, Shanxi is 91.7 mm/h. During the flood season, the short-time heavy rainfalls always occur at 16 - 18 pm, and have slightly different concentrated time in different months. The main peaks of June, July and August are at 16, 17 and 18 respectively, postponed for one hour. Short-time heavy rainfall overall has the distribution that the south is more than the north and the east less than the west in Shanxi area. In the last 36 years, short-time heavy rainfall has a slight increasing trend in Shanxi, but not significant. There is a clear 4-year period of oscillation and inter-decadal variation. It has a good correlation between the total precipitation and times of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season.展开更多
This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 200...This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.展开更多
A regional heavy precipitation event that occurred over Sichuan Province on 8–9 September 2015 is analyzed based on hourly observed precipitation data obtained from weather stations and NCEP FNL data.Two moist dynami...A regional heavy precipitation event that occurred over Sichuan Province on 8–9 September 2015 is analyzed based on hourly observed precipitation data obtained from weather stations and NCEP FNL data.Two moist dynamic parameters,i.e.,moist vorticity(mζ)and moist divergence(mδ),are used to diagnose this heavy precipitation event.Results show that the topography over southwestern China has a significant impact on the ability of these two parameters to diagnose precipitation.When the impact of topography is weak(i.e.,low altitude),mζ cannot exactly depict the location of precipitation in the initial stage of the event.Then,as the precipitation develops,its ability to depict the location improves significantly.In particular,mζ coincides best with the location of precipitation during the peak stage of the event.Besides,the evolution of the mζcenter shows high consistency with the evolution of the precipitation center.For mδ,although some false-alarm regions are apparent,it reflects the location of precipitation almost entirely during the precipitation event.However,the mδ center shows inconsistency with the precipitation center.These results suggest that both mζ and mδ have a significant ability to predict the location of precipitation.Moreover,mζ has a stronger ability than mδ in terms of predicting the variability of the precipitation center.However,when the impact of topography is strong(i.e.,high altitude),both of these two moist dynamic parameters are unable to depict the location and center of precipitation during the entire precipitation event,suggesting their weak ability to predict precipitation over complex topography.展开更多
Based on the observation data from the automatic rainfall station and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,circulation analysis and diagnosis analysis of potential vorticity in a heavy rainfall process in September 2017 in Qujin...Based on the observation data from the automatic rainfall station and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,circulation analysis and diagnosis analysis of potential vorticity in a heavy rainfall process in September 2017 in Qujing were conducted.The results show that the heavy rainfall was mainly affected by the convergence zone between the two high pressures and shear line system,the precipitation area developed from the west to the southeast of Qujing,and the heavy rainfall area was concentrated in the central area.The southerly airflow in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere provided favorable water vapor conditions for heavy precipitation.The precipitation was characterized by high intensity,strong suddenness and small time scale.The heavy precipitation was concentrated from 04:00 to 06:00 on September 6.The high-and low-value centers of dry potential vorticity PV at 500 h Pa were indicative of the activities of cold and warm air in the process of heavy rainfall,and representative of the development of the convergence zone and the activities of shear line.That is to say,the high-value zone of dry potential vorticity PV at 500 h Pa was strengthened to penetrate into the center of Yunnan,leading the northerly airflow to the convergence zone.The deep southerly airflow in the relatively low-value zone of PV was uplifted to the north,converging the cold and warm air at the front of the convergence zone,resulting in heavy precipitation in Qujing.The high-value zone of wet potential vorticity MPV at 700 h Pa can also indicate the characteristics of unstable warm and humid air flow activity.MPV1<0,and MPV2>0,which easily caused the unstable energy release of wet convection and formed heavy precipitation.展开更多
Convective/large-scale(C/L)precipitation partitions are crucial for achieving realistic rainfall modeling and are classified in 16 phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)atmospheric models.Only 4 m...Convective/large-scale(C/L)precipitation partitions are crucial for achieving realistic rainfall modeling and are classified in 16 phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)atmospheric models.Only 4 models capture the feature that convective rainfall significantly exceeds the large-scale rainfall component in the tropics while the other 12 models show 50%–100%large-scale rainfall component in heavy rainfall.Increased horizontal resolution generally increases the convective rainfall percentage,but not in all models.The former 4 models can realistically reproduce two peaks of moisture vertical distribution,respectively located in the upper and the lower troposphere.In contrast,the latter 12 models correspond to three types of moisture vertical profile biases:(1)whole mid-to-lower tropospheric wet biases(60%–80%large-scale rainfall);(2)mid-tropospheric wet peak(50%convective/large-scale rainfall);and(3)lower-tropospheric wet peak(90%–100%large-scale rainfall).And the associated vertical distribution of unique clouds potentially causes different climate feedback,suggesting accurate C/L rainfall components are necessary to reliable climate projection.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475050)。
文摘By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC3000802)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875059)The Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2021LASW-A04)。
文摘This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.
基金Supported by the Key Research and Development and Transformation Project of Science and Technology Department of Qinghai Province in 2021(2021-SF-141-2).
文摘Based on the hourly precipitation data from 4 observation stations of Xining City from June to September during 2005-2011,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of short-time precipitation were analyzed.The results show that the precipitation distribution in Xining region exhibited the less-more-less trend from southwest to northeast,while the torrential rain gradually increased from the northwest and southwest to the middle.The hourly general precipitation in Xining region had obviously seasonal characteristics,and its annual distribution showed wavy changes,but the annual variation of short-time heavy precipitation and rainstorm was very obvious.Furthermore,short-time heavy precipitation was concentrated from 18:00 to 24:00,followed by 03:00-07:00 on the following day.The occurrence time of short-time rainstorm accorded with short-time heavy precipitation.It offers a useful reference for the accurate and timely short-term forecast.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1506801 and 2018YFF0300102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.42105013).
文摘A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant No.2018YFC1507302the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.42175006+1 种基金Jiangsu Youth Talent Promotion Project(2021-084)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS under Grant No.2020R002.
文摘The northeastern China cold vortex(NCCV)plays an important role in regional rainstorms over East Asia.Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis dataset and the Global Precipitation Measurement product,an objective algorithm for identifying heavy-precipitation NCCV(HPCV)events was designed,and the climatological features of 164 HPCV events from 2001 to 2019 were investigated.The number of HPCV events showed an upward linear trend,with the highest frequency of occurrence in summer.The most active region of HPCV samples was the Northeast China Plain between 40°–55°N.Most HPCV events lasted 3–5 days and had radii ranging from 250 to 1000 km.The duration of HPCV events with larger sizes was longer.About half of the HPCV events moved into(moved out of)the definition region(35°–60°N,115°–145°E),and half initiated(dissipated)within the region.The initial position was close to the western boundary of the definition region,and the final position was mainly near the eastern boundary.The locations associated with the precipitation were mostly concentrated within 2000 km southeast of the HPCV systems,and they were farther from the center in the cold season than in the warm season.
文摘In order to better understand the formation mechanism of rainstorm in China and promote disaster prevention and reduction, based on the meteorological data of National Meteorological Information Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, this paper draws the isobaric surface map of 850 hPa and 500 hPa, relative humidity and precipitation distribution map. In this study, synoptic methods were used to analyze the heavy precipitation process in North China from August 23th to 24th, 2020. The results show that 1) The formation of short-term heavy precipitation requires sufficient water vapor and very strong upward movement;2) the heavy precipitation in August 23th to 24th 2020 in North China was influenced by the upper-level trough line, cold vortex and cold front, which made the warm and cold air strongly converge over North China, resulting in strong convective weather;3) the heavy rainfall over North China was also influenced by Typhoon Bawei, which caused maximum precipitation and air humidity.
文摘By means of conceptual model prediction, two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen on June 12th and 14th, 2008 were analyzed from the aspects of real precipitation, weather situation, physical parameter and radar echo. The results showed that two short-time strong precipitation processes had complete different weather backgrounds, so physical quantities which could reflect atmospheric thermal and dynamic characteristic were different, as well as the characteristic and evolution process of radar echo, and it revealed that two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen had various formation mechanisms and evolution processes. Therefore, many data should be combined to grasp different vantage points in precipitation forecast.
基金Scientific Research Project of Guizhou Meteorological Bureau(QQKD[2020]08-04).
文摘In order to fill the gaps of the research on the data of automatic weather stations(referred to as automatic stations)not used for the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province,the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province were compared and analyzed based on the hourly precipitation data of the automatic stations and the national weather stations(referred to as the national stations)from April to September during 2010-2019.The results show that the average state of maximum hourly precipitation of all stations(the automatic stations and the national stations)and national stations both are representative,but the data of all stations are more representative when the maximum hourly precipitation is extreme.The 99.5 th quantile is the most reasonable threshold of extremely short-time severe precipitation in each station.The spatial distribution of extremely short-time severe precipitation intensity in all stations and national stations is generally that the southern region is stronger than the northern region,and the intensity values are concentrated in the range of 40-50 mm/h.All stations data can better reflect the distribution characteristics of<40 and≥50 mm/h.The national stations data underestimates the precipitation intensity in the southern and northeastern marginal areas of Guizhou,and slightly exaggerates the precipitation intensity in the northern part of Guizhou.The monthly and diurnal variations of the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations and national stations are very obvious and the variation trend is the same,but the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation has no obvious monthly variation characteristics.There is no significant diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations,but the diurnal variation in the data of national stations is significant.Since the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in national stations is less,the diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations is more statistically significant.
基金Concentrated fund item of nationalscience and technology foundation work,No.2001DEA30029-0604Jiangsunaturalsciencefoundation,No.BK2005163
文摘Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitation- concentration degree (PCD)and precipitation-concentration period (PCP)ofdifferentintensity durative precipitation eventswere calculated to analyze theirstatisticalcharacteristics,mainly including spatial and temporaldistributions,variations and climatic trends ofthe two parameters ofthe durative heavy precipitation events in China.Itis proved thatthese two parameters ofheavy rainfallcan display the temporalinhomogeneity in the precipitation field.And itis also found thatthere is a good positive relationship between the precipitation-concentration degree and annualrainfallamountin the Eastern and CentralChina.Thismethod can beapplied in flood assessmentand climatechangefields.
基金Supported by New Meteorological Technology Promotion Program (CMATG2010Y16)Guangxi Natural Fund Program (2010GXNSFA013012)
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze one strong precipitation process in Northern Guangxi from May 27 to 28 in 2010.[Method] By dint of 2.5×2.5 NCEP reanalysis data,physical quantities such as the water vapor flux,pseudo-equivalent temperature,Non-geotropic wet Q vector in one front rainstorm process in north Guangxi from May 27 to 28 in 2010 was expounded.The forecast application of Non-geotropic wet Q vector in rainstorm falling area in Guangxi during early flood period was discussed.[Result] The water vapor in Bay of Bengal transported to Guangxi and formed convergence lifting movement in north Guangxi,which provided favorable water vapor transportation condition for the generation of strong precipitation in north Guangxi.The 850 hPa pseudo-equivalent temperature front (close area) moved southward to the north part of Guangxi.North Guangxi was in pseudo-equivalent temperature area.The highly wet unstable energy of lower layer and the cold air penetrating downward from the middle layer led to potential instability in the lower level established in northern Guangxi,which thus provided certain thermal condition for the strong precipitation process;Northern Guangxi was in the overlap region of the maximum gradient region of contour Qx at 850 hPa and stronger negative areas of ▽Q,which provided favorable dynamic condition for the rainstorm process in northern Guangxi in the future.[Conclusion] The study provided reference in accordance to the forecast of rainstorm.
文摘Soil washing, ex situ mechanical technique, is one of the few permanent treatment alternatives to remove metal contaminants from soils by employing physical separation based on mineral processing technologies to remove discrete particles or metal-bearing particles and/or chemical extraction based on leaching or dissolving process to extract the metals from the soils into an aqueous solution. However, washwater remained from soil washing process contains discrete particulate particles along with heavy metals as solution phase to be treated separately, as well as this process can produce large amount of sludge that requires further treatment, slow metal precipitation, poor settling, the aggregation of metal precipitates. Electrical treatments including electrocoagulation and electrolysis can be effective in removing these substances from washwater. This paper reviews the theoretical models in applying electrocoagulation and electrolysis to remove heavy metals and discrete particulate particles in washwater by examining and comparing the status of washwater treatment technologies which have been undertaken, mostly in the US and EU for the period 1990-2012.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1507703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41675042)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In earlier studies,objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation(TCP)in a region,where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event(TPE)and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(RHPEs)are defined and investigated.In this study,TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events(TRHPEs),which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events.Based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events(OITREE)and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT)to define TPE,temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as TRHPE.With daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018,86 TRHPEs have been identified.TRHPEs contribute as much as 20%of the RHPEs,but100%of events with extreme individual precipitation intensities.The major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall,indicating a role of post landfall precipitation.The frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends,consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 mm.More frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990-2018 than1960-89.The roles of cyclone translation speed and"shifts"in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends.
文摘In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic research on short-term heavy precipitation events in Shanxi Province. Based on hourly precipitation data during the flood season (May to September) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi, China in 1980-2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season are analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the short-time heavy rainfall in the flood season in Shanxi Province is mainly at the grade of 20 - 30 mm/h, with an average of 97 stations having short-time heavy rainfall each year, accounting for 89% of the total stations. The short-time heavy rainfall mainly concentrated in July and August, and the maximal rain intensity in history appeared at 23 - 24 on June 17, 1991 in Yongji, Shanxi is 91.7 mm/h. During the flood season, the short-time heavy rainfalls always occur at 16 - 18 pm, and have slightly different concentrated time in different months. The main peaks of June, July and August are at 16, 17 and 18 respectively, postponed for one hour. Short-time heavy rainfall overall has the distribution that the south is more than the north and the east less than the west in Shanxi area. In the last 36 years, short-time heavy rainfall has a slight increasing trend in Shanxi, but not significant. There is a clear 4-year period of oscillation and inter-decadal variation. It has a good correlation between the total precipitation and times of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season.
基金supported by the National Department Public Benefit Research Foundation[grant number GYHY201406003]the Open Research Fund Program of the Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province[grant number PAEKL-2015-K3]+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 413750544157506441375052]
基金supported by the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare of the Ministry of Sciences and Technology,China(Grant No.GYHY201406003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41375054,41575064,and 41375052)+1 种基金the Applied Basic Research Programs of the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province(Grant No.2015JY0109)the Starting Foundation of Civil Aviation University of China(Grant No.2016QD05X)
基金"Variations of Extremely Heavy Precipitation and Their Response to Global Climate Change",a project in Research Fund for the Science of Tropical Marine and Meteorology(200804)"On the Regional Extremely Heavy Rain in South China Under the Background of Climate Warming,a project in Special China Meteorological Administration Program for Climate Change(CCSF-09-03)Assessment Report on the Climate Change in the South China Region(CCSF-09-11)
文摘This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.
基金jointly supported by the National Department Public Benefit Research Foundation(Grant No.GYHY201406003)the 973 Program(Grant Nos.2013CB956203 and 2012CB957803)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490642,41475070 and 41305045)the Jiangsu Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.BK20151447)
文摘A regional heavy precipitation event that occurred over Sichuan Province on 8–9 September 2015 is analyzed based on hourly observed precipitation data obtained from weather stations and NCEP FNL data.Two moist dynamic parameters,i.e.,moist vorticity(mζ)and moist divergence(mδ),are used to diagnose this heavy precipitation event.Results show that the topography over southwestern China has a significant impact on the ability of these two parameters to diagnose precipitation.When the impact of topography is weak(i.e.,low altitude),mζ cannot exactly depict the location of precipitation in the initial stage of the event.Then,as the precipitation develops,its ability to depict the location improves significantly.In particular,mζ coincides best with the location of precipitation during the peak stage of the event.Besides,the evolution of the mζcenter shows high consistency with the evolution of the precipitation center.For mδ,although some false-alarm regions are apparent,it reflects the location of precipitation almost entirely during the precipitation event.However,the mδ center shows inconsistency with the precipitation center.These results suggest that both mζ and mδ have a significant ability to predict the location of precipitation.Moreover,mζ has a stronger ability than mδ in terms of predicting the variability of the precipitation center.However,when the impact of topography is strong(i.e.,high altitude),both of these two moist dynamic parameters are unable to depict the location and center of precipitation during the entire precipitation event,suggesting their weak ability to predict precipitation over complex topography.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41305061 and41210007]the CAS-PKU(Chinese Academy of Sciences-Peking University)Joint Research Program
基金Supported by Special Project for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2019-109)Scientific Research Project of Qujing Meteorological Bureau(2018-05)
文摘Based on the observation data from the automatic rainfall station and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,circulation analysis and diagnosis analysis of potential vorticity in a heavy rainfall process in September 2017 in Qujing were conducted.The results show that the heavy rainfall was mainly affected by the convergence zone between the two high pressures and shear line system,the precipitation area developed from the west to the southeast of Qujing,and the heavy rainfall area was concentrated in the central area.The southerly airflow in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere provided favorable water vapor conditions for heavy precipitation.The precipitation was characterized by high intensity,strong suddenness and small time scale.The heavy precipitation was concentrated from 04:00 to 06:00 on September 6.The high-and low-value centers of dry potential vorticity PV at 500 h Pa were indicative of the activities of cold and warm air in the process of heavy rainfall,and representative of the development of the convergence zone and the activities of shear line.That is to say,the high-value zone of dry potential vorticity PV at 500 h Pa was strengthened to penetrate into the center of Yunnan,leading the northerly airflow to the convergence zone.The deep southerly airflow in the relatively low-value zone of PV was uplifted to the north,converging the cold and warm air at the front of the convergence zone,resulting in heavy precipitation in Qujing.The high-value zone of wet potential vorticity MPV at 700 h Pa can also indicate the characteristics of unstable warm and humid air flow activity.MPV1<0,and MPV2>0,which easily caused the unstable energy release of wet convection and formed heavy precipitation.
基金funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42022034,91737306,41675100)National Key Research and development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0604004)。
文摘Convective/large-scale(C/L)precipitation partitions are crucial for achieving realistic rainfall modeling and are classified in 16 phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)atmospheric models.Only 4 models capture the feature that convective rainfall significantly exceeds the large-scale rainfall component in the tropics while the other 12 models show 50%–100%large-scale rainfall component in heavy rainfall.Increased horizontal resolution generally increases the convective rainfall percentage,but not in all models.The former 4 models can realistically reproduce two peaks of moisture vertical distribution,respectively located in the upper and the lower troposphere.In contrast,the latter 12 models correspond to three types of moisture vertical profile biases:(1)whole mid-to-lower tropospheric wet biases(60%–80%large-scale rainfall);(2)mid-tropospheric wet peak(50%convective/large-scale rainfall);and(3)lower-tropospheric wet peak(90%–100%large-scale rainfall).And the associated vertical distribution of unique clouds potentially causes different climate feedback,suggesting accurate C/L rainfall components are necessary to reliable climate projection.