In order to fill the gaps of the research on the data of automatic weather stations(referred to as automatic stations)not used for the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Pr...In order to fill the gaps of the research on the data of automatic weather stations(referred to as automatic stations)not used for the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province,the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province were compared and analyzed based on the hourly precipitation data of the automatic stations and the national weather stations(referred to as the national stations)from April to September during 2010-2019.The results show that the average state of maximum hourly precipitation of all stations(the automatic stations and the national stations)and national stations both are representative,but the data of all stations are more representative when the maximum hourly precipitation is extreme.The 99.5 th quantile is the most reasonable threshold of extremely short-time severe precipitation in each station.The spatial distribution of extremely short-time severe precipitation intensity in all stations and national stations is generally that the southern region is stronger than the northern region,and the intensity values are concentrated in the range of 40-50 mm/h.All stations data can better reflect the distribution characteristics of<40 and≥50 mm/h.The national stations data underestimates the precipitation intensity in the southern and northeastern marginal areas of Guizhou,and slightly exaggerates the precipitation intensity in the northern part of Guizhou.The monthly and diurnal variations of the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations and national stations are very obvious and the variation trend is the same,but the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation has no obvious monthly variation characteristics.There is no significant diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations,but the diurnal variation in the data of national stations is significant.Since the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in national stations is less,the diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations is more statistically significant.展开更多
In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic r...In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic research on short-term heavy precipitation events in Shanxi Province. Based on hourly precipitation data during the flood season (May to September) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi, China in 1980-2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season are analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the short-time heavy rainfall in the flood season in Shanxi Province is mainly at the grade of 20 - 30 mm/h, with an average of 97 stations having short-time heavy rainfall each year, accounting for 89% of the total stations. The short-time heavy rainfall mainly concentrated in July and August, and the maximal rain intensity in history appeared at 23 - 24 on June 17, 1991 in Yongji, Shanxi is 91.7 mm/h. During the flood season, the short-time heavy rainfalls always occur at 16 - 18 pm, and have slightly different concentrated time in different months. The main peaks of June, July and August are at 16, 17 and 18 respectively, postponed for one hour. Short-time heavy rainfall overall has the distribution that the south is more than the north and the east less than the west in Shanxi area. In the last 36 years, short-time heavy rainfall has a slight increasing trend in Shanxi, but not significant. There is a clear 4-year period of oscillation and inter-decadal variation. It has a good correlation between the total precipitation and times of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season.展开更多
By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper prese...By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.展开更多
Based on conventional meteorological observation data and Doppler radar data,the occurrence and development mechanism of mixed severe convective weather and evolution of convective storm in Guangxi on March 4,2018 wer...Based on conventional meteorological observation data and Doppler radar data,the occurrence and development mechanism of mixed severe convective weather and evolution of convective storm in Guangxi on March 4,2018 were analyzed. The results showed that the dry line was the main trigger mechanism of this severe convective weather. Instable convection stratification of cold advection at middle layer and warm advection at low layer and abundant water vapor from low-level jet provided favorable stratification and water vapor conditions for the occurrence and development of severe convection. Cold trough at middle layer,low pressure and strong vertical wind shear at middle and lower layers may be main factors for the development and maintenance of strong storm system. Squall line developed along ground convergence line,and there was bow echo on reflectivity factor chart. Moving velocity of convective system was quick,and there was gale core and velocity ambiguity on velocity map.展开更多
Using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the observation rainfalldata in China for the 1980-1997 period, features of severe summer rainfall over the upper reaches ofthe Yangtze River are investigated and then ...Using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the observation rainfalldata in China for the 1980-1997 period, features of severe summer rainfall over the upper reaches ofthe Yangtze River are investigated and then sources of moisture contributing to severe rainfallover eastern and western Sichuan Province (ES and WS for short) are examined with particularreference. It turns out that the severe rainfall occurring locally dominates summer rainfall overthe upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Climatological rainfall and anomalous one constitute severerainfall, but the latter accounts much for severe rainfall. The meridional moisture transportdominates the composite moisture transport on the occurrence day for ES region, while the zonal isequivalent to the meridional for WS region. Correlation between the moisture transport fluxes overthe two regions of severe rainfall and other regions, the anomaly and variation of the moisturetransport day by day during the period of severe rainfall lend a support for the conclusion that themeeting of the moisture from the West Pacific through the South China Sea (SCS) and the one fromnorthwestern China exerts a vital effect on the occurrence of severe rainfall, which can not beneglected.展开更多
Environmental factors such as relative humidity and rainfall generally have been found to increase the incidence, rate of spread and severity of diseases thereby reducing yield of crops. Study was conducted on five co...Environmental factors such as relative humidity and rainfall generally have been found to increase the incidence, rate of spread and severity of diseases thereby reducing yield of crops. Study was conducted on five cotton varieties, which were artificially inoculated with bacterial blight pathogen to determine the effects of rainfall and relative humidity on incidence and severity of angular leaf spot (ALS) and yield of seed cotton in Yola and Mubi. Results showed that the severity of ALS was higher in Yola (58.65%) at 13 WAS assumed to be due to higher relative humidity range of 76% - 87% and low rainfall of 2 - 40.6 mm. This is assumed to have favoured disease development as against that of Mubi location which recorded lower severity (51.11%) due to lower relative humidity (42% - 55%) and rainfall (37 - 73 mm). Results further revealed that at 13 WAS, SAMCOT-8 had low incidence (66%) and severity (39%) in Yola. This was against the much higher corresponding incidence and severity of 82% and 42% respectively that was observed in Mubi during the same period. SAMCOT-10 and SAMCOT-9 varieties were found to be highly susceptible to the disease at the same period. SAMCOT-8 recorded the highest yield of 390.00 kg?ha?1 in Yola and 868.09 kg?ha?1 in Mubi while the lowest yields of 227.17 kg?ha?1 was observed on SAMCOT-10 in Yola while 461.61 kg?ha?1 was obtained on SAMCOT-9 in Mubi. The variation in yield among these varieties might be due to the differences in their reactions to the disease. There is a need to conduct further trials in these locations to confirm the level of resistance or other aspects of these varieties to the disease.展开更多
为提高暴雨预报准确率,减少暴雨致灾损失,基于地面常规气象观测资料、卫星云图反演的云顶亮温(Black Body Temperature,TBB)资料及美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)再分析资料,对2017年8月云...为提高暴雨预报准确率,减少暴雨致灾损失,基于地面常规气象观测资料、卫星云图反演的云顶亮温(Black Body Temperature,TBB)资料及美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)再分析资料,对2017年8月云南一次强对流暴雨成因进行分析。结果表明:500 hPa低槽东移、700 hPa切变线南压、地面冷锋西推是此次降水过程发生的天气背景;中-β、中-α尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System,MCS)是产生强对流暴雨的直接系统,强降雨主要出现在TBB梯度大值区;MCS与700 hPa切变线关系最为密切,切变线位于滇中以东地区,MCS呈椭圆状,沿切变线附近及后部发展,切变线靠近哀牢山或翻越后,MCS呈西北—东南向带状分布,沿切变线前部发展;切变线翻越哀牢山前,白天移动较快,主要产生雷暴天气,夜间移动缓慢,降雨较强;强对流暴雨需重点关注水汽通量辐合大值区、800 hPa与500 hPa温差大于20℃区域;强降雨时段,整层大气均为上升运动,强降雨区维持低层辐合、中高层辐散的动力抽吸机制。展开更多
选取2020—2021年夏季沈阳地区出现的4次短时强降水过程,利用欧洲中心(ECMWF,European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)ERA5再分析资料、地基GPS(Global Position System)大气可降水量资料和常规观测资料,分析不同天气系统...选取2020—2021年夏季沈阳地区出现的4次短时强降水过程,利用欧洲中心(ECMWF,European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)ERA5再分析资料、地基GPS(Global Position System)大气可降水量资料和常规观测资料,分析不同天气系统影响下,沈阳地区短时强降水过程中GPS水汽与水汽通量的变化特征。结果表明:短时强降水过程前,水汽累积时间的长短与相应的天气系统关系密切。副热带高压系统外围导致的强降水过程,大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)可以一直维持在较高水平,水汽增长速度可达1.1 mm·h^(-1)。此外,强降水出现时段与PWV峰值阶段相对应,但二者峰值并不完全重合;短时强降水出现时,沈阳站的大气可降水量超过38 mm;强降水结束后,PWV明显减弱。展开更多
集合预报在数值天气预报中占有重要地位,如何有效地从集合成员中提取信息以提高降水的集合平均预报技巧是重要科学问题。采用2019—2022年夏季中国气象局全球集合预报业务模式(China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Pre...集合预报在数值天气预报中占有重要地位,如何有效地从集合成员中提取信息以提高降水的集合平均预报技巧是重要科学问题。采用2019—2022年夏季中国气象局全球集合预报业务模式(China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System,CMA-GEPS)的逐日累计降水量集合预报数据,发展了基于分段层次聚类的逐步订正方法(Stepwise correction method based on segmented Hierarchical Clustering,SHC)以改进该模式的强降水集合平均预报结果,并定量评估了SHC方法的性能,比较了其与集合平均(EM)和直接聚类法(HC)的订正效果差异。结果表明:SHC方法由于采取了分段聚类订正来有效引入更有价值的集合成员预报信息,进而修正集合平均预报结果,提升目前在短、中期天气集合预报中的强降水预报能力;该方法的逐日连续预报检验评分总体在降水预报订正方面有优势,相对于EM和HC方法预报技巧均有明显提升,证明其具有良好的适用性;对于2021年郑州7·20暴雨个例的应用显示SHC方法对极端降水预报具有较好的订正效果。SHC方法为改进中国强降水集合平均预报技巧提供了新方法。展开更多
基金Scientific Research Project of Guizhou Meteorological Bureau(QQKD[2020]08-04).
文摘In order to fill the gaps of the research on the data of automatic weather stations(referred to as automatic stations)not used for the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province,the climate characteristics of extremely short-time severe precipitation in Guizhou Province were compared and analyzed based on the hourly precipitation data of the automatic stations and the national weather stations(referred to as the national stations)from April to September during 2010-2019.The results show that the average state of maximum hourly precipitation of all stations(the automatic stations and the national stations)and national stations both are representative,but the data of all stations are more representative when the maximum hourly precipitation is extreme.The 99.5 th quantile is the most reasonable threshold of extremely short-time severe precipitation in each station.The spatial distribution of extremely short-time severe precipitation intensity in all stations and national stations is generally that the southern region is stronger than the northern region,and the intensity values are concentrated in the range of 40-50 mm/h.All stations data can better reflect the distribution characteristics of<40 and≥50 mm/h.The national stations data underestimates the precipitation intensity in the southern and northeastern marginal areas of Guizhou,and slightly exaggerates the precipitation intensity in the northern part of Guizhou.The monthly and diurnal variations of the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations and national stations are very obvious and the variation trend is the same,but the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation has no obvious monthly variation characteristics.There is no significant diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations,but the diurnal variation in the data of national stations is significant.Since the frequency of extremely short-time severe precipitation in national stations is less,the diurnal variation in the intensity of extremely short-time severe precipitation in all stations is more statistically significant.
文摘In order to provide a reference for the correct forecasting of short-term heavy rainfall and better disaster prevention and mitigation services in Shanxi Province, China, it is very important to carry out systematic research on short-term heavy precipitation events in Shanxi Province. Based on hourly precipitation data during the flood season (May to September) from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi, China in 1980-2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season are analyzed by using wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the short-time heavy rainfall in the flood season in Shanxi Province is mainly at the grade of 20 - 30 mm/h, with an average of 97 stations having short-time heavy rainfall each year, accounting for 89% of the total stations. The short-time heavy rainfall mainly concentrated in July and August, and the maximal rain intensity in history appeared at 23 - 24 on June 17, 1991 in Yongji, Shanxi is 91.7 mm/h. During the flood season, the short-time heavy rainfalls always occur at 16 - 18 pm, and have slightly different concentrated time in different months. The main peaks of June, July and August are at 16, 17 and 18 respectively, postponed for one hour. Short-time heavy rainfall overall has the distribution that the south is more than the north and the east less than the west in Shanxi area. In the last 36 years, short-time heavy rainfall has a slight increasing trend in Shanxi, but not significant. There is a clear 4-year period of oscillation and inter-decadal variation. It has a good correlation between the total precipitation and times of short-time heavy rainfall during the flood season.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475050)。
文摘By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.
基金Supported by Special Project for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2020-096)Meteorological Scientific Research Plan Project of Guangxi Meteorological Bureau(GUIQIKE2017Z06)。
文摘Based on conventional meteorological observation data and Doppler radar data,the occurrence and development mechanism of mixed severe convective weather and evolution of convective storm in Guangxi on March 4,2018 were analyzed. The results showed that the dry line was the main trigger mechanism of this severe convective weather. Instable convection stratification of cold advection at middle layer and warm advection at low layer and abundant water vapor from low-level jet provided favorable stratification and water vapor conditions for the occurrence and development of severe convection. Cold trough at middle layer,low pressure and strong vertical wind shear at middle and lower layers may be main factors for the development and maintenance of strong storm system. Squall line developed along ground convergence line,and there was bow echo on reflectivity factor chart. Moving velocity of convective system was quick,and there was gale core and velocity ambiguity on velocity map.
基金This paper is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40375014, 40475029the National Basic Research Program of China under "973" Grant No. 2004CB418300.
文摘Using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the observation rainfalldata in China for the 1980-1997 period, features of severe summer rainfall over the upper reaches ofthe Yangtze River are investigated and then sources of moisture contributing to severe rainfallover eastern and western Sichuan Province (ES and WS for short) are examined with particularreference. It turns out that the severe rainfall occurring locally dominates summer rainfall overthe upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Climatological rainfall and anomalous one constitute severerainfall, but the latter accounts much for severe rainfall. The meridional moisture transportdominates the composite moisture transport on the occurrence day for ES region, while the zonal isequivalent to the meridional for WS region. Correlation between the moisture transport fluxes overthe two regions of severe rainfall and other regions, the anomaly and variation of the moisturetransport day by day during the period of severe rainfall lend a support for the conclusion that themeeting of the moisture from the West Pacific through the South China Sea (SCS) and the one fromnorthwestern China exerts a vital effect on the occurrence of severe rainfall, which can not beneglected.
文摘Environmental factors such as relative humidity and rainfall generally have been found to increase the incidence, rate of spread and severity of diseases thereby reducing yield of crops. Study was conducted on five cotton varieties, which were artificially inoculated with bacterial blight pathogen to determine the effects of rainfall and relative humidity on incidence and severity of angular leaf spot (ALS) and yield of seed cotton in Yola and Mubi. Results showed that the severity of ALS was higher in Yola (58.65%) at 13 WAS assumed to be due to higher relative humidity range of 76% - 87% and low rainfall of 2 - 40.6 mm. This is assumed to have favoured disease development as against that of Mubi location which recorded lower severity (51.11%) due to lower relative humidity (42% - 55%) and rainfall (37 - 73 mm). Results further revealed that at 13 WAS, SAMCOT-8 had low incidence (66%) and severity (39%) in Yola. This was against the much higher corresponding incidence and severity of 82% and 42% respectively that was observed in Mubi during the same period. SAMCOT-10 and SAMCOT-9 varieties were found to be highly susceptible to the disease at the same period. SAMCOT-8 recorded the highest yield of 390.00 kg?ha?1 in Yola and 868.09 kg?ha?1 in Mubi while the lowest yields of 227.17 kg?ha?1 was observed on SAMCOT-10 in Yola while 461.61 kg?ha?1 was obtained on SAMCOT-9 in Mubi. The variation in yield among these varieties might be due to the differences in their reactions to the disease. There is a need to conduct further trials in these locations to confirm the level of resistance or other aspects of these varieties to the disease.
文摘选取2020—2021年夏季沈阳地区出现的4次短时强降水过程,利用欧洲中心(ECMWF,European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)ERA5再分析资料、地基GPS(Global Position System)大气可降水量资料和常规观测资料,分析不同天气系统影响下,沈阳地区短时强降水过程中GPS水汽与水汽通量的变化特征。结果表明:短时强降水过程前,水汽累积时间的长短与相应的天气系统关系密切。副热带高压系统外围导致的强降水过程,大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)可以一直维持在较高水平,水汽增长速度可达1.1 mm·h^(-1)。此外,强降水出现时段与PWV峰值阶段相对应,但二者峰值并不完全重合;短时强降水出现时,沈阳站的大气可降水量超过38 mm;强降水结束后,PWV明显减弱。
文摘集合预报在数值天气预报中占有重要地位,如何有效地从集合成员中提取信息以提高降水的集合平均预报技巧是重要科学问题。采用2019—2022年夏季中国气象局全球集合预报业务模式(China Meteorological Administration Global Ensemble Prediction System,CMA-GEPS)的逐日累计降水量集合预报数据,发展了基于分段层次聚类的逐步订正方法(Stepwise correction method based on segmented Hierarchical Clustering,SHC)以改进该模式的强降水集合平均预报结果,并定量评估了SHC方法的性能,比较了其与集合平均(EM)和直接聚类法(HC)的订正效果差异。结果表明:SHC方法由于采取了分段聚类订正来有效引入更有价值的集合成员预报信息,进而修正集合平均预报结果,提升目前在短、中期天气集合预报中的强降水预报能力;该方法的逐日连续预报检验评分总体在降水预报订正方面有优势,相对于EM和HC方法预报技巧均有明显提升,证明其具有良好的适用性;对于2021年郑州7·20暴雨个例的应用显示SHC方法对极端降水预报具有较好的订正效果。SHC方法为改进中国强降水集合平均预报技巧提供了新方法。
