Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

Spatiotemporal Differences and Classification Regulation of Urbanization Impact on Agricultural Development in Shrinking Areas:A Case Study of 15 Shrinking Cities in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Studying the impact of urbanization on agricultural development in shrinking areas is important for maintaining food security and promoted agricultural development in China.Based on the measurement results of the shrinking cities in the three provinces of Northeast China,this paper selects 15 shrinking cities as the research object,and constructs a multi-dimensional index system to explore the impact of the urbanization level of the shrinking areas on the agricultural development in the region since 2007–2019,analyzes the influencing factors and their differences by using the geographically-weighted regression model and Geodetector,and proposes a targeted regulation strategy.The results show that:1)overall,there is a negative correlation between the urbanization level and the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces.The urbanization level in these areas has a certain negative impact on the overall level of agricultural development;2)regarding the time dimension,the impact of urbanization level on the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually increases over time;3)regarding the spatial pattern,the overall impact of shrinking urbanization levels in the three provinces of Northeast China on the agricultural development shows a significant distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west;4)the total population and natural population growth rate at the end of the year were the main factors influencing a certain level of urbanization on agricultural development in the shrinking cities while population density and the urban fixed asset investment rate were the secondary factors;and 5)the main reasons why the level of agricultural development in different cities was affected by the level of urbanization were different.However,they can be categorized into areas of population loss and spatial construction,which can be further divided into area of population loss in the northeast,areas of negative population growth in the west,and areas of urban spatial change in the south.According to the causes of the impact,this paper adopted targeted regulation strategies and formulated relevant policies and solutions that cater to local conditions.

Do Shrinking Cities Correlate with the Demographic Aging Process?Evidence from Shrinking Cities in China

Urban shrinkage is a world-wide phenomenon characterized by population loss in a short period of time.During this process,the decrease of the younger generation will further accelerate the demographic aging process through lowering birth rates.Although many studies have qualitatively addressed that demographic aging could be both a result and cause of urban shrinkage,empirical studies to examine their interrelations are lacking.This paper aims to examine their interrelationships by proposing an integrated model which covers the paths,effects,and interrelationships between shrinking cities and demographic aging in economic,spatial,and social dimensions.Based on the data from 138 county-level cities in China,partial least-square method is used for structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM).The results show that two indirect influence paths exist between shrinking cities and the demographic aging process.First,urban shrinkage has an indirect interaction with the demographic aging process via social and economic factors(path:shrinking cities←→society←→economy←→aging process).Second,urban shrinkage is also indirectly interrelated with the demographic aging process in spatial factors(path:shrinking cities←→space←→aging process).To deal with the double challenges of urban shrinkage and demographic aging,planning policies should integrate with policies in socio-economic and spatial aspects.

Issues with Spatial Scale in Urban Research

Scale is the range or measurement unit of the characteristics of natural or human ontology in the temporal or spatial dimension and is widely used in daily life and the study of various disciplines.Scale effect pertains to certain laws and characteristics that can only be reflected on a specific scale,so choosing the appropriate scale remains the basic premise of scientific research.The concept of the urban spatial system is complex and has the characteristics of scale dependence,and the selection of an appropriate spatial scale is important for the accurate estimation and description of urban issues.In this paper,we discuss spatial scale in urban research using cases that primarily come from the Chinese experience,provide some examples that demonstrate the importance of appropriate scale in urban research,including urban shrinkage,and highlight problems in spatial research.Ultimately,we suggest that scale consciousness should be the basic consciousness required in empirical research.