In February 2022,eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures,with significant impacts on agriculture,transportation,and power supply.The regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was-0.65℃,makin...In February 2022,eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures,with significant impacts on agriculture,transportation,and power supply.The regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was-0.65℃,making it the third coldest February from 2000 to 2022.Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on low-temperature events is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the region.This study used observational and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to conduct an extreme event attribution study.The results showed that anthropogenic forcing led to a 1.5-fold decrease in the probability of 2022-like events,with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the primary contributors to this reduction.Conversely,aerosols slightly increased the likelihood of such events.To evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in this event,we chose Siberian High as the key circulation system and employed circulation similarity,intensity classification,and regression methods to estimate the impacts of circulation patterns,circulation in-tensity,and human-induced circulation change.The results demonstrated that under the influence of the same anthropogenic forcing,the presence of an anomalous Siberian High and anomalously enhanced intensity of the Siberian High both increased the likelihood of such a cold event occurrence.However,anthropogenic forcing exerts a negligible effect on such cold events via anomalous circulation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42025503,U2342228)the Key Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Detection and Response (CMA2022ZD03).
文摘In February 2022,eastern China experienced prolonged low temperatures,with significant impacts on agriculture,transportation,and power supply.The regional average temperature anomaly for February 2022 was-0.65℃,making it the third coldest February from 2000 to 2022.Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing and atmospheric circulation on low-temperature events is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the region.This study used observational and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to conduct an extreme event attribution study.The results showed that anthropogenic forcing led to a 1.5-fold decrease in the probability of 2022-like events,with anthropogenic greenhouse gases being the primary contributors to this reduction.Conversely,aerosols slightly increased the likelihood of such events.To evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in this event,we chose Siberian High as the key circulation system and employed circulation similarity,intensity classification,and regression methods to estimate the impacts of circulation patterns,circulation in-tensity,and human-induced circulation change.The results demonstrated that under the influence of the same anthropogenic forcing,the presence of an anomalous Siberian High and anomalously enhanced intensity of the Siberian High both increased the likelihood of such a cold event occurrence.However,anthropogenic forcing exerts a negligible effect on such cold events via anomalous circulation.
