Risk assessment of mountain tourism on the Western Sichuan Plateau,China

As an important site for tourism activities,mountainous areas may generate greater tourism risks than plain areas due to potential natural disasters,social issues,scenic area management,and tourist behavior.Western Sichuan Plateau is mostly mountainous area and tourism is its pillar industry,Therefore,the assessment of the tourism risks on the Western Sichuan Plateau is of academic value and practical significance.In this study,we use statistical and remote sensing data,fishbone diagram,and the entropy weighting method to construct a tourism risk evaluation model and classify risks into different levels,and we also use a geographic information system(GIS)for spatial mapping to quantify and spatialize the results.The objectives are 1)to identify the risk sources in the Western Sichuan Plateau and analyze their causal mechanisms,precisely reveal the distribution of tourism risks in the study area;2)improve the precision of tourism risk evaluation in scenic areas and analyze the causes and spatial distribution patterns of tourism risks and propose targeted management measures.This study found that the evaluation results of the four elements of hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity on the Western Sichuan Plateau showed significant spatial variability,depending on the natural conditions and the quantity difference of tourism resources in different regions.In addition,the tourism risk is low in most areas of the Western Sichuan Plateau,and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is higher in areas with high tourism risk where attractions are densely populated and tourism is concentrated.Our study can provide a reference for future analyses of tourism risks in mountainous tourist areas such as in China and worldwide.

Climate Regionalization for Morchella esculenta Cultivation in the Western Sichuan Plateau Based on GIS

Based on the meteorological data and DEM data in the producing areas of Morchella esculenta in the western Sichuan plateau from 1991 to 2020, the biological characteristics of M. esculenta, as well as the survey of production in the planting area, the correlation between M. esculenta production and the climatic ecological conditions at an altitude of 1 200-3 000 m in the western Sichuan plateau was comprehensively analyzed by using the inverse distance weight method, analytic hierarchy process, climate risk assessment model and geographic information system(GIS), and restrictive or high impact climatic ecological factors were selected as the suitability zoning indicators to carry out the analysis of climatic ecological suitability and planting zoning. The results show that the climatic factors affecting M. esculenta cultivation in the western Sichuan plateau were mainly temperature, temperature difference between day and night, and humidity, and the main meteorological disaster was freezing disaster. Under the influence of vertical changes in temperature, topography and cold damage, the growing areas of M. esculenta in the western Sichuan plateau were mainly distributed in the Minjiang River basin and the river valley along the Dadu River basin at an altitude of 1 200-2 000 m, and were distributed in strips and branches along the rivers. The suitable areas were mainly distributed in Wenchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, Kangding, Jiulong and Luding counties(cities), which were the main producing areas of M. esculenta, but the area was small, accounting for only 3.5% of the study area;the sub-suitable areas were mainly distributed in some towns of Danba, Xiaojin, Wenchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, Heishui and Jiuzhaigou counties, accounting for 36.0% of the total area, and they were the main planting areas of M. esculenta.

Path of Social Construction in Northwest Sichuan Plateau Pastoral Area

On the basis of main contents of social construction and key points of construction,this paper analyzes features of conditions of northwest Sichuan plateau pastoral area.The social construction at current stage mainly includes social cause in narrow sense,and social management at meso-level.The northwest Sichuan plateau pastoral area is faced with the best policy and development opportunity.However,there are still many weak aspects.Firstly,social structure is not coordinated with economic structure.Secondly,social construction ability of grass-roots government is weak.Thirdly,the ability to respond to public demands is low.Fourthly,there is a big gap in availability of basic public service.Finally,it presents path selection for social construction of northwest Sichuan plateau pastoral area:strengthen social construction ability of grass-roots government;promote social construction with livelihood projects as key projects;boost social construction taking advantage of ecological construction;develop basic public service with the aid of external forces;intensify evaluation system for supervision of social construction works.

Reconstruction of summer temperature variation from maximum density of alpine pine during 1917-2002 for west Sichuan Plateau, China

Having analyzed the tree ring width and maximum latewood density of Pinus densata from west Sichuan, we obtained different climate information from tree-ring width and maximum latewood density chronology. The growth of tree ring width was responded princi- pally to the precipitation in current May, which might be influenced by the activity of southwest monsoon, whereas the maximum latewood density reflected summer temperature （June-September）. According to the correlation relationship, a transfer function had been used to reconstruct summer temperature for the study area. The explained variance of reconstruction is 51% （F=52.099, p〈0.0001）. In the reconstruction series： before the 1930s, the climate was relatively cold, and relatively warm from 1930 to 1960, this trend was in accordance with the cold-warm period of the last 100 years, west Sichuan. Compared with Chengdu, the warming break point in west Sichuan is 3 years ahead of time, indicating that the Tibetan Plateau was more sensitive to temperature change. There was an evident summer warming signal after 1983. Although the last 100-year running average of summer temperature in the 1990s was the maximum, the running average of the early 1990s was below the average line and it was cold summer, but summer drought occurred in the late 1990s.

Prediction of the Distribution of Perennial Cultivated Grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau, China under Climate Change

In order to determine the threshold and potential distribution of climatic conditions for perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China, the niche model is used to simulate the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses, and to predict the current and future climate change prospects. The results show that: 1) Wet index, accumulated temperature, isothermal, and annual average temperature range are the four major climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau. 2) Model training and prediction data can be achieved well under the appropriate range of major climatic factors. 3) Under the background of climate warming, from now to 2080, the potential distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China will increase. The study aims to provide scientific decision-making basis for maintaining grassland ecosystem stability and promoting desertification management and even industrial restructuring of agriculture and animal husbandry.

A Study on Forest Species Diversity and Its Ecological Service Function in the Plateau Area of Western Sichuan

This paper presents a study on species diversity and its ecological service function in the plateau area in western Sichuan. The results show that species diversity in the plantations on the cutover land has a tendency to increase and that its ecological service function is to be improved with stand age growing. The species diversity in forest communities is also gradually increased on different succession stage till reaching a climax level. But the species diversity in the climax community is slightly decreased before it reaches a relatively constant status. Ecological service function of diversity is gradually strengthened with the progress of succession. In addition, species diversity in a stand in a similar site and at a same age differs among forest types. Species diversity index within a coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest is larger than that within a coniferous forest. Meanwhile, species diversity enriches as the tree density increases.

川西高原和攀西地区不同级别短时强降水环境参量特征对比分析

利用2010—2021年5—9月川西高原和攀西地区62个国家级自动站逐小时观测资料及时间分辨率为1 h的ERA5再分析资料,对比分析了两区域不同级别短时强降水发生发展过程中水汽、热力和垂直风切变等环境参量特征。结果表明:川西高原和攀西地区短时强降水主要集中在6—8月,午后至前半夜是川西高原短时强降水的高发时段,攀西地区则表现出明显的夜雨特征。就川西高原而言,较好的水汽、热力条件和较强的垂直风切变、上升运动均有利于高级别短时强降水的产生;不同级别短时强降水的CAPE值差异显著,1100 J·kg^(−1)可作为判断是否出现20 mm·h^(−1)以上短时强降水的参考阈值。就攀西地区而言,不同级别短时强降水在暖云层厚度、700 hPa比湿、700 hPa假相当位温、CAPE、0~3 km垂直风切变等环境参量的值域分布上均存在明显差异;当700 hPa比湿大于13 g·kg^(−1)、CPAE值超过1100 J·kg^(−1)、0~3 km垂直风切变达到10 m·s^(−1)时,极易出现50 mm·h^(−1)以上的短时强降水。

云南地区强震的超长时间平静异常及未来地震趋势研究

从1996年丽江M_(S)7.0地震发生后至2023年8月,云南地区M≥6.7和M≥7.0地震出现了长达27.55 a的超长时间平静现象。本文从更大时空尺度上对该平静异常现象及其与青藏高原和川滇地块的强震活动之间的关系进行了分析和总结,并讨论了云南地区未来地震趋势。结果表明,1887年以来,云南地区5次M≥7.0地震平静期内其周边地震活动环境有很大差异性:第Ⅰ,第Ⅱ和第Ⅴ平静期出现在青藏高原M≥7.0地震活跃背景下(即云南地区平静,但青藏高原活跃),第Ⅲ和第Ⅳ平静期出现在青藏高原M≥7.0地震平静背景下(即云南地区平静,青藏高原也平静)。当前云南地区处于27.55 a超长时间平静期(即第Ⅴ平静期),其所处的周边地震活动环境与第Ⅰ和第Ⅱ平静期相似,据此推断,其后续地震趋势可能也与第Ⅰ和第Ⅱ活跃期相似,处于相对弱的活跃期。同时,未来较长时间青藏高原可能仍将处于M≥7.0地震活跃时段;2022年泸定M_(S)6.8地震后,川滇地块可能会进入M≥6.7地震活跃时段。

川西高原某隧道幔源气逸出机理及防控研究

川西高原地区特殊的构造和岩性为幔源气提供了赋存环境。本文针对幔源气成因、出气段落超前地质预报探测原则、检测与监测进行了阐述,总结了幔源气出气段工作思路:(1)辨识幔源气类型及其不同浓度下的危害;(2)树立“物钻结合,长短结合”的超前地质预报理念;(3)加强气体的检测与监测,加强幔源气的通风管理。通过以上探测及防控手段,实现了对岩浆岩幔源气的可防可治,保证了施工安全。研究成果可为类似地质背景环境的隧道施工提供针对性探测及防控思路。

川西高原土地利用碳储量估算及多情景预测

[目的]区域碳储量与土地利用密切相关。在“双碳”目标下,从碳储量视角开展重点区域土地利用变化预测研究,对协调与优化区域土地利用格局、提高区域生态系统未来固碳潜力具有重要参考价值。[方法]以川西高原为研究区,以2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用为数据源,预测不同情景下2030年土地利用,结合修正的土地利用碳密度数据和InVEST模型估算区域碳储量变化。[结果](1)从各地类相对研究区的面积占比变化看,2000—2020年草地从65.20%逐步缩减到63.65%,林地从31.73%不断扩张到32.92%,未利用地先减后增且净增0.57%,水域和耕地先增后减均净减0.11%,湿地持续增加,共净增0.07%;研究区2000年、2010年、2020年碳储量分别为24.26×10^(8),24.29×10^(8),24.27×10^(8) t,呈先增后减趋势。(2)与2020年相比,2030年自然发展情景下碳储量减少3.19×10^(5) t,在耕地保护情景、生态保护情景、耕地生态联合保护情景下将分别固碳4.29×10^(6),9.72×10^(6),9.60×10^(6) t。[结论]扭转未利用地的扩张趋势,在保持耕地面积的基础上继续稳步推行生态保护政策,提高川西高原陆地生态系统固碳潜力并助力其成为重要“碳汇”区域应成为川西高原国土空间规划和管控的关注重点。

不同气候区生态系统服务权衡空间异质性及其驱动因素——以川滇-黄土高原生态屏障带为例

厘清生态系统服务权衡关系的驱动因素对实现生态系统高效管理至关重要。然而,在不同气候区生态系统服务权衡关系在空间上如何变化及其驱动机制是否一致,尚不清楚。以川滇-黄土高原生态屏障带为例,基于InVEST模型、CASA模型评估生态系统服务空间分布特征,采用RMSE量化生态系统服务权衡关系,利用地理探测器探究不同气候区生态系统服务权衡的驱动机制,以期为生态系统管理提供参考依据。结果如下:(1)不同生态系统服务在不同气候区存在明显差异,WY整体由东北向西南呈递减趋势,NPP和SC呈现由北向南递减的趋势。(2)WY∩NPP的权衡最高值在中温带为0.317,最低值在高原气候区为0.181。WY∩SC在不同气候区RMSE变化幅度较小,由南向北呈现递减趋势;中亚热带气候区WY∩SC的权衡程度最高,为0.295,南温带的权衡程度最低,为0.229。NPP∩SC的RMSE差值最小,仅有0.064,高原气候区权衡程度略低于温带和亚热带。(3)在不同气候区自然因素对权衡关系作用显著高于社会因素,但在人口密集区,人为活动可以部分突破自然因素的约束,使其对权衡的影响有所提升。因此,在制定不同气候区生态系统服务管理的针对性措施时,应考虑生态系统服务权衡的空间特征和驱动因素的差异性。

四川盆地及川西高原地区FY-3D/VASS温湿度廓线检验

利用2020—2021年探空站及ERA5再分析资料,对FY-3D大气垂直探测系统(VASS)温湿度廓线在四川盆地及川西高原地区的精度进行检验。结果表明:与ERA5数据相比,FY-3D/VASS温度在盆地和高原地区不同季节的平均偏差分别为-0.631~0.500℃和-2.230~-1.234℃,均方根误差分别为2.117~3.222℃和3.077~3.460℃,高原比盆地地区大,在垂直高度上,盆地地区的精度在800~700 hPa较低,高原地区的精度随高度的减小逐渐降低;FY-3D/VASS比湿呈现一致的负偏差,平均偏差在盆地和高原地区分别为-0.775~-0.525 g·kg^(-1)和-1.096~-0.347 g·kg^(-1),均方根误差分别为1.251~2.367 g·kg^(-1)和0.696~1.991 g·kg^(-1),在700~600 hPa的精度较低;通过将两组检验的平均偏差相加,间接建立FY-3D/VASS基于探空温湿度数据的检验结果,其中FY-3D/VASS温度在盆地地区的平均偏差较小,高原地区平均偏低2.440℃左右,比湿在盆地和高原地区平均偏低0.612 g·kg^(-1)左右。上述结果可提升FY-3D/VASS温湿度反演产品在四川盆地及川西高原地区的天气气候应用能力。

川西北高寒地区5种饲草产量与CNCPS组分分析

饲草种质资源是新品种创制的基础,本研究选择适宜在川西北高寒区栽培的中华羊茅(Festuca sinensis)、无芒雀麦(Bromus inermis)、垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans)、圆柱披碱草(Elymus cylindricus)和老芒麦(Elymus sibiricus)饲草种质资源,测定了饲草产量、全株及不同部位(茎、叶、穗)的营养成分,利用康奈尔净碳水化合物-蛋白质体系(Cornell net carbohydrate and protein system, CNCPS)对其组分进行分析,为筛选高产优质饲草种质资源奠定基础。结果表明,鲜草产量随年份增加逐年降低,老芒麦连续四年的鲜草产量高于其他饲草。圆柱披碱草的干草产量最高,变异系数较小,稳产性较好。无芒雀麦茎、叶和穗的中性洗涤纤维(Neutral detergent fiber, NDF)、酸性洗涤纤维(Acid detergent fiber, ADF)含量低于其他饲草,非结构性碳水化合物(Nonstructural carbohydrate, NSC)含量显著高于其他饲草(P<0.05)。圆柱披碱草茎、叶和穗的ADF含量显著高于其他饲草(P<0.05)。老芒麦全株、茎、叶和穗的粗蛋白(Crude protein, CP)含量高于其他饲草,碳水化合物(Carbohydrate, CHO)含量低于其他饲草。综合分析得出,无芒雀麦和老芒麦的生产性能及营养品质表现较好,可作为当地种质资源研究和新品种选育的基础材料。

川西高原绿色韧性公路建设探索与工程实践

从四川盆地边缘向川西高原过渡区域受构造地质作用,地质结构极为复杂,生态脆弱,韧性度差。随着西部大开发如火如荼的进行,川西高原公路交通基础设施建设进一步加强。从国家和行业层面,提出了绿色公路建设理念,但对韧性公路建设很少涉及,特别是针对川西高原公路建设从绿色韧性方面研究,尚无成熟的经验可以借鉴。以汶马、久马高速公路建设为例,从绿色韧性入手,明确绿色韧性建设应用和提升技术,创新性探索提出“绿色和韧性协同,融合发展”的建设理念,并阐述在此理念指导下如何在川西高原韧性度差和生态敏感的公路上,建设韧性度高且绿色环保的相关举措。探索提出如何提供路网韧性和绿色环保建设的措施,以期为川西高原广大公路建设提供借鉴和参考。

川西北高原区植被覆盖变化及驱动力

[目的]了解川西北高原区植被覆盖变化规律及驱动力,为区域植被保护与恢复建设提供理论参考。[方法]以MODIS NDVI为基础数据,结合Sen氏趋势、Manna-Kendall检验及Hurst模型完成该地区近20年空间分布特征、趋势变化和未来可持续状态分析,以地理探测器对其驱动力进行探索。[结果](1)该地区植被覆盖整体表现为东部相对较好;(2)全时段内,全域80.56%的地区植被覆盖变化趋势为无显著改变,显著改善地区全域面积占比为17.80%;(3)Hurst指数表明,未来全域植被覆盖整体将处于无显著改变的发展状态;(4)高程、年均气温和土壤类型的单因子解释力均在30%以上,它们是驱动植被覆盖分布格局差异形成的主要因素,各因子交互协同作用均为增强效果,各因子适宜植被生长的区间或类型也存在明显差异;(5)自然因素主导了区域植被覆盖空间分布总体格局的形成,而土地利用类型则是驱使其动态变化的关键因素。近20年内,川西高原区植被覆盖变化规律显著,自然因素主导了区域植被覆盖的空间分布格局。[结论]近20年研究区植被覆盖变化规律明显,自然因子虽然主导了植被覆盖的空间布局,但是对其格局变化产生驱动作用的因素主要为人类活动。

川西高原毛垭坝盆地全新世气候变化

在西风带、东亚季风和印度季风的共同影响下,青藏高原不同区域全新世气候变化过程存在显著差异,加强不同区域古气候变化研究对重建青藏高原全新世气候变化过程及理解其变化机制具有重要意义。以青藏高原东部川西高原理塘县毛垭坝盆地全新世地层为研究对象,在14C测年的基础上,通过沉积环境和多个古气候代用指标的分析,重建了全新世气候变化过程。毛垭坝盆地早-中全新世冰水湖沉积物覆盖在末次冰期冰碛物之上,晚全新世为冲洪积物。全新世沉积物在筛除砾石(粒径>2 mm)后的粒度组成以中粉砂以下粒级(粒径<32μm)为主,占比多>80%,是冰川磨蚀作用的产物。磁化率在古土壤层明显增大,结合粒径<1μm粒度组分的出现,可能说明成壤作用生成的强磁性矿物是磁化率值增大的原因。在冰水湖还原环境中磁化率值显著减小,可能与磁性矿物溶解有关。结合总有机碳(TOC)和色度参数的综合分析表明,毛垭坝盆地早全新世气候温干,中全新世暖湿,晚全新世温干,这一变化过程与青藏高原东部全新世气候变化总的趋势相符。在晚全新世气候温干的趋势下,毛垭坝盆地在2 700 a BP古土壤发育,气候温湿。

基于加权信息量模型的川西高原地热潜力预测

川西高原是中国重要的高温地热资源富集区,地热资源十分丰富,开发潜力大。但目前对于川西高原地热潜力分布认识仍较为匮乏。基于川西高原公开可获得地热点(温泉)、断裂、花岗岩、地表温度、布格重力异常、航磁异常、地震等影响因子数据,建立川西高原加权信息量模型。地热点与影响因子的空间分析结果表明,地热点与到断裂和花岗岩距离呈负相关,与较高的地表温度、较低的航磁异常、较高的布格重力异常和较低的古登堡-里克特b值存在明显的空间相关性。模型预测结果显示,川西高原康定、理塘、巴塘等地具有较高的地热潜力,川西高原地热资源勘探开发应重点围绕上述地区开展。而甘孜、白玉、新龙、炉霍、道孚、得荣和丹巴等地区也表现出一定的地热潜力,在今后的地热勘探中应予以重视。

川西藏东交通廊道区域工程地质条件评价

区域工程地质条件是重大工程规划建设地质安全的重要保障。川西藏东交通廊道位于青藏高原东部,穿越世界上地形地貌和地质构造最复杂的地区,区域工程地质环境复杂。响应重大工程规划建设的地质安全需求,以川西藏东交通廊道重大线性工程沿线为研究区,在分析区域工程地质环境的基础上,选取9个地质环境因子指标,采用基于GIS的层次分析法,完成了区域工程地质条件评价,将研究区划分为工程地质条件好、较好、中等和差4个等级。结果显示,活动断裂是最不利的工程地质条件因素,其次是地形起伏度和地质灾害易发程度。工程地质条件好的地区远离活动断裂带和深切峡谷,呈块状、条带状分布于活动断裂带及深切峡谷之间。工程地质条件差的地区主要分布于活动断裂带和高山峡谷区,突出表现为距活动断裂较近,尤其是多条断裂相交或近于相交的地区。研究结果能够为川西藏东交通廊道重大工程规划建设地质安全提供科学支撑。

近红外高光谱传感器在地震有关气体监测中的应用:以青藏高原东边界为例

为了促进高光谱技术在地震有关气体监测中的应用,本文选取对近地表信息敏感度较强的近红外高光谱传感器TROPOMI的二级产品数据,分析研究了青藏高原东北缘和川滇地区地震相关气体时空特征及其与构造和地震活动关系,评价了近红外传感器在地震有关气体监测中的应用效果和应用前景。结果表明:TROPOMI反演的研究区CH_(4)和CO气体在时间上呈现明显的季节变化,受气候变化、地貌、人类活动等影响;空间上在银川、渭河和四川盆地表现为高值,受地质背景、地形地貌和人类活动等因素影响。目前近红外高光谱传感器在时间分辨率和有效数据量上具有一定的局限性,但是相对于热红外高光谱传感器,近红外传感器可以较好地反映气体与近地表构造的关系。未来随着近红外高光谱传感器的应用和发展,近红外数据可以逐渐弥补热红外传感器数据对近地表信息敏感度低的不足,提高异常与地震关系的判断力。

川西北高原全株玉米与不同豆科牧草混贮品质研究

为发挥全株玉米与豆科牧草在家畜生产中的互补效应,提高川西北高原饲草利用率。本研究以全株玉米、全株大豆和全株箭筈豌豆为试验材料,设置三种饲草单独青贮及70%全株玉米和30%全株大豆混贮、70%全株玉米和30%全株箭筈豌豆混贮5个处理,采用聚乙烯袋密封保存30,60,90,120 d后开袋分析。结果表明:全株玉米与豆科牧草混贮可以显著提高全株玉米的粗蛋白含量和豆科牧草的可溶性碳水化合物及乳酸含量,显著降低豆科牧草的pH值、氨态氮及丁酸含量(P<0.05)。混贮处理中,全株玉米与全株箭筈豌豆混贮组的可溶性碳水化合物及乳酸含量增幅更大,pH值、丙酸、丁酸含量均值最低,分别为4.03,2.6和0.38 g·kg^(-1)DM。因此,全株玉米与全株大豆、全株箭筈豌豆混贮,可以均衡三种饲草的营养品质,获得更优质的青贮饲料,但在川西北高原地区以全株玉米和全株箭筈豌豆混贮效果更佳。