Forecasting Spare Parts Demand Using Statistical Analysis

Spare parts are very essential in most industrial companies. They are characterized by their large number and their high impact on the companies’ operations whenever needed. Therefore companies tend to analyze their spare parts demand and try to estimate their future consumption. Nevertheless, they face difficulties in figuring out an optimal forecasting method that deals with the lumpy and intermittent demand of spare parts. In this paper, we performed a comparison between five forecasting methods based on three statistical tools;Mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean error (ME), where the results showed close performance for all the methods associated with their optimal parameters and the frequency of the spare part demand. Therefore, we proposed to compare all the methods based on the tracking signal with the objective of minimizing the average number of out of controls. This approach was tested in a comparative study at a local paper mill company. Our findings showed that the application of the tracking signal approach helps companies to better select the optimal forecasting method and reduce forecast errors.

Algorithm of sky-ground-wave signal separation in CDMA system

To solve the problem of the sky-wave interference in radio positioning system operating in CDMA mode, an algorithm of sky-ground-wave separation is provided. Based on the MLE （maximum likelihood estimate）, and by estimating the amplitude and the phase of the sky-wave signal, the provided algorithm for separating skyground-wave is implemented. The mathematics model used for signal processing is established, and the possible solutions are provided. The structure and signal processing flow implementing the presented algorithm in the receiver are presented. A multi-channels signal searching idea is adopted, some of which process the sky-wave signal, and some of which process the ground-wave signal. Numerical analysis and simulation show that the proposed algorithm has higher accuracy, more rapid processing speed, and simpler implementation for the estimation of the sky-wave signal parameter, and can separate the sky-wave signal and ground-wave signal from the arrival combination signal effectively.

Lock threshold deterioration induced by antenna vibration and signal coupling effects in hypersonic vehicle carrier tracking system of Ka band

The envelope of a hypersonic vehicle is affected by severe fluctuating pressure, which causes the airborne antenna to vibrate slightly. This vibration mixes with the transmitted signals and thus introduces additional multiplicative phase noise. Antenna vibration and signal coupling effects as well as their influence on the lock threshold of the hypersonic vehicle carrier tracking system of the Ka band are investigated in this study. A vibration model is initially established to obtain phase noise in consideration of the inherent relationship between vibration displacement and electromagnetic wavelength. An analytical model of the Phase-Locked Loop（PLL）, which is widely used in carrier tracking systems, is established. The coupling effects on carrier tracking performance are investigated and quantitatively analyzed by imposing the multiplicative phase noise on the PLL model. Simulation results show that the phase noise presents a Gaussian distribution and is similar to vibration displacement variation. A large standard deviation in vibration displacement exerts a significant effect on the lock threshold. A critical standard deviation is observed in the PLL of Binary Phase Shift Keying（BPSK） and Quadrature Phase Shift Keying（QPSK） signals. The effect on QPSK signals is more severe than that on BPSK signals. The maximum tolerable standard deviations normalized by the wavelength of the carrier are 0.04 and 0.02 for BPSK and QPSK signals,respectively. With these critical standard deviations, lock thresholds are increased from à12 andà4 d B to 3 and à2 d B, respectively.