Large-scale physical simulation of injection and production of hot dry rock in Gonghe Basin,Qinghai Province,China

Based on the independently developed true triaxial multi-physical field large-scale physical simulation system of in-situ injection and production,we conducted physical simulation of long-term multi-well injection and production in the hot dry rocks of the Gonghe Basin,Qinghai Province,NW China.Through multi-well connectivity experiments,the spatial distribution characteristics of the natural fracture system in the rock samples and the connectivity between fracture and wellbore were clarified.The injection and production wells were selected to conduct the experiments,namely one injection well and two production wells,one injection well and one production well.The variation of several physical parameters in the production well was analyzed,such as flow rate,temperature,heat recovery rate and fluid recovery.The results show that under the combination of thermal shock and injection pressure,the fracture conductivity was enhanced,and the production temperature showed a downward trend.The larger the flow rate,the faster the decrease.When the local closed area of the fracture was gradually activated,new heat transfer areas were generated,resulting in a lower rate of increase or decrease in the mining temperature.The heat recovery rate was mainly controlled by the extraction flow rate and the temperature difference between injection and production fluid.As the conductivity of the leak-off channel increased,the fluid recovery of the production well rapidly decreased.The influence mechanisms of dominant channels and fluid leak-off on thermal recovery performance are different.The former limits the heat exchange area,while the latter affects the flow rate of the produced fluid.Both of them are important factors affecting the long-term and efficient development of hot dry rock.

Quantifying major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield in dryland environments

Modelling the impact of climate change on cropping systems is crucial to support policy-making for farmers and stakeholders.Nevertheless,there exists inherent uncertainty in such cases.General Circulation Models(GCMs)and future climate change scenarios(different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)in different future time periods)are among the major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on crop grain yield.This study quantified the different sources of uncertainty associated with future climate change impact on wheat grain yield in dryland environments(Shiraz,Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad)in eastern and southern Iran.These five representative locations can be categorized into three climate classes:arid cold(Shiraz),semi-arid cold(Hamedan and Sanandaj)and semi-arid cool(Kermanshah and Khorramabad).Accordingly,the downscaled daily outputs of 29 GCMs under two RCPs(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s)were used as inputs for the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)-wheat model.Analysis of variance(ANOVA)was employed to quantify the sources of uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield.Years from 1980 to 2009 were regarded as the baseline period.The projection results indicated that wheat grain yield was expected to increase by 12.30%,17.10%,and 17.70%in the near future(2030s),middle future(2050s)and far future(2080s),respectively.The increases differed under different RCPs in different future time periods,ranging from 11.70%(under RCP4.5 in the 2030s)to 20.20%(under RCP8.5 in the 2080s)by averaging all GCMs and locations,implying that future wheat grain yield depended largely upon the rising CO2 concentrations.ANOVA results revealed that more than 97.22% of the variance in future wheat grain yield was explained by locations,followed by scenarios,GCMs,and their interactions.Specifically,at the semi-arid climate locations(Hamedan,Sanandaj,Kermanshah and Khorramabad),most of the variations arose from the scenarios(77.25%),while at the arid climate location(Shiraz),GCMs(54.00%)accounted for the greatest variation.Overall,the ensemble use of a wide range of GCMs should be given priority to narrow the uncertainty when projecting wheat grain yield under changing climate conditions,particularly in dryland environments characterized by large fluctuations in rainfall and temperature.Moreover,the current research suggested some GCMs(e.g.,the IPSL-CM5B-LR,CCSM4,and BNU-ESM)that made moderate effects in projecting the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield to be used to project future climate conditions in similar environments worldwide.

A process model for simulating net primary productivity (NPP) based on the interaction of water-heat process and nitrogen: a case study in Lantsang valley

Terrestrial carbon cycle and the global atmospheric CO2 budget are important foci in global climate change research. Simulating net primary productivity （NPP） of terrestrial ecosystems is important for carbon cycle research. In this study, a plant-atmosphere-soil continuum nitrogen （N） cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator （BEPS） model. With the established database （leaf area index, land cover, daily meteorology data, vegetation and soil） at a 1 km resolution, daily maps of NPP for Lantsang valley in 2007 were produced, and the spatial-temporal patterns of NPP and mechanisms of its responses to soil N level were further explored. The total NPP and mean NPP of Lantsang valley in 2007 were 66.5 Tg C and 416 g？m-2？a-1 C, respectively. In addition, statistical analysis of NPP of different land cover types was conducted and investigated. Compared with BEPS model （without considering nitrogen effect）, it was inferred that the plant carbon fixing for the upstream of Lantsang valley was also limited by soil available nitrogen besides temperature and precipitation. However, nitrogen has no evident limitation to NPP accumulation of broadleaf forest, which mainly distributed in the downstream of Lantsang valley.

Availability-based simulation and optimization modeling framework for open-pit mine truck allocation under dynamic constraints

We present a novel system productivity simulation and optimization modeling framework in which equipment availability is a variable in the expected productivity function of the system. The framework is used for allocating trucks by route according to their operating performances in a truck-shovel system of an open-pit mine, so as to maximize the overall productivity of the fleet. We implement the framework in an originally designed and specifically developed simulator-optimizer software tool. We make an application on a real open-pit mine case study taking into account the stochasticity of the equipment behavior and environment. The total system production values obtained with and without considering the equipment reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) characteristics are compared. We show that by taking into account the truck and shovel RAM aspects, we can maximize the total production of the system and obtain specific information on the production availability and productivity of its components.

Stochastic optimization of mine production scheduling with uncertain ore/metal/waste supply

Optimization of long-term mine production scheduling in open pit mines deals with the management of cash flows, typically in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars. Conventional mine scheduling utilizes optimization methods that are not capable of accounting for inherent technical uncertainties such as uncertainty in the expected ore/metal supply from the underground, acknowledged to be the most critical factor. To integrate ore/metal uncertainty into the optimization of mine production scheduling a stochastic integer programming(SIP) formulation is tested at a copper deposit. The stochastic solution maximizes the economic value of a project and minimizes deviations from production targets in the presence of ore/metal uncertainty. Unlike the conventional approach, the SIP model accounts and manages risk in ore supply, leading to a mine production schedule with a 29% higher net present value than the schedule obtained from the conventional, industry-standard optimization approach, thus contributing to improving the management and sustainable utilization of mineral resources.

Evaluation of gas production from multiple coal seams： A simulation study and economics

Gas production from multiple coal seams has become common practice in many coal basins around the world. Although gas production rates are typically enhanced, the economic viability of such practice is not well studied. In order to investigate the technical and economic feasibility of multiple coal seams production, reservoir simulation integrated with economics modelling was performed to study the effect of important reservoir properties of the secondary coal seam on production and economic performance using both vertical and horizontal wells. The results demonstrated that multiple seam gas production of using both vertical and horizontal wells have competitive advantage over single layer production under most scenarios. Gas content and permeability of the secondary coal seam are the most important reservoir properties that have impact on the economic feasibility of multiple seam gas production. The comparison of vertical well and horizontal well performance showed that horizontal well is more economically attractive for both single well and gas field. Moreover, wellhead price is the most sensitive to the economic performance, followed by operating costs and government subsidy. Although the results of reservoir simulation combined with economic analysis are subject to assumptions, multiple seam gas production is more likely to maintain profitability compared with single layer production.

A linear programming model for long-term mine planning in the presence of grade uncertainty and a stockpile

The complexity of an open pit production scheduling problem is increased by grade uncertainty. A method is presented to calculate the cost of uncertainty in a production schedule based on deviations from the target production. A mixed integer linear programming algorithm is formulated to find the min- ing sequence of blocks from a predefined pit shell and their respective destinations, with two objectives： to maximize the net present value of the operation and to minimize the cost of uncertainty. An efficient clustering technique reduces the number of var/ables to make the problem tractable. Also, the parameters that control the importance of uncertainty in the optimization problem are studied. The minimum annual mining capacity in presence of grade uncertainty is assessed. The method is illustrated with an oil sand deposit in northern Alberta.

Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm to Design Manufacturing Process Line Including Feasible and Infeasible Solutions in Neighborhood

This paper treats multi-objective problem for manufacturing process design. A purpose of the process design is to decide combinations of work elements assigned to different work centers. Multiple work elements are ordinarily assigned to each center. Here, infeasible solutions are easily generated by precedence relationship of work elements in process design. The number of infeasible solutions generated is ordinarily larger than that of feasible solutions generated in the process. Therefore, feasible and infeasible solutions are located in any neighborhood in solution space. It is difficult to seek high quality Pareto solutions in this problem by using conventional multi-objective evolutional algorithms. We consider that the problem includes difficulty to seek high quality solutions by the following characteristics： （1） Since infeasible solutions are resemble to good feasible solutions, many infeasible solutions which have good values of objective functions are easily sought in the search process, （2） Infeasible solutions are useful to select new variable conditions generating good feasible solutions in search process. In this study, a multi-objective genetic algorithm including local search is proposed using these characteristics. Maximum value of average operation times and maximum value of dispersion of operation time in all work centers are used as objective functions to promote productivity. The optimal weighted coefficient is introduced to control the ratio of feasible solutions to all solutions selected in crossover and selection process in the algorithm. This paper shows the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on simple model.

CO2 Storage Mechanism in Coal and its Effect on Methane Production in Enhanced Coalbed Methane Recovery

In this study, we provided more theoretical method for estimation of dissolution amount and applied this method to enhanced coalbed methane recovery （ECBMR） simulator. Dissolution amount was measured by method of differential heat of adsorption. Akabira coal, a Japanese bituminous coal, was used for the experiment. The results showed that CO2 was stored in coal by both adsorption and dissolution. Using this result the methane production was calculated by ECBMR-simulator, enhanced coalbed methane recovery simulator, the University of Tokyo （ECOMERS-UT）. Total stored CO2 was separated into adsorption component and dissolution component. Only the former component contributes to the competitive adsorption. Coalbed methane （CBM） production simulation considering the dissolution showed later and smaller peak production and prolonged methane production before the breakthrough than the conventional competitive adsorption.

Workshop on Simulation and Systems Analysis for Rice Production(SARP) held at CNRRI

SARP Workshop on risk analysis of agroecological zonation and optimization of crop rotation was held at CNRRI’s research center on 24—27 Oct, 1995. Experts from Philippines, India, China, and IRRI were present in the workshop. Participants exchanged the research results on the field of land use, soil erosion. optimization of rice—wheat, rice—peanut, rice—corn cropping system in the different environments, risk analysis of rice based cropping system, nitrogen balance in rice based cropping system with system approach, demonstrated models used in their studies, and discussed the ongoing cooperative research.

Simulation of Potential Productivity of Early Season Rice Varieties in Different Reqions of South China

Rice is a staple food crop in China.Since the 1950’s,many new varieties havebeen used and resulted in great increase ofyield.However there were still some barriersin the nationwide extension of new varietiesdue to the insufficient information about thecharacteristics of varieties.So,it is impor-tant to find ways of determining the potential

Optimal proportion of wind and PV capacity in provincial power systems based on bilevel optimization algorithm under low-carbon economy

In order to boost contributions of power systems to a low-carbon economy,the installed capacity of renewable power generation,such as wind and photovoltaic(PV)power generation should be well planned.A bilevel formulation is presented to optimize the proportion of wind and PV capacity in provincial power systems,in which,carbon emissions of generator units and features of renewable resources are taken into account.In the lowerlevel formulation,a time-sequence production simulation(TSPS)model that is suitable for actual power system has been adopted.In order to maximize benefits of energy conservation and emissions reduction resulting from renewable power generation,the commercial software called General Algebraic Modeling System(GAMS)is employed to optimize the annual operation of the power system.In the upper-level formulation,the optimal pattern search(OPS)algorithm is utilized to optimize the proportion of wind and PV capacity.The objective of the upper-level formulation is to maximize benefits of energy conservation and carbon emissions reductions optimized in the lowerlevel problem.Simulation results in practical provincial power systems validate the proposed model and corresponding solving algorithms.The optimization results can provide support to policy makers to make the polices related to renewable energy.

Model and application of renewable energy accommodation capacity calculation considering utilization level of inter-provincial tie-line

At present, the problem of abandoning wind and PV power in “Three North” region of China is particularly significant, and how to alleviate this problem has become the focus of universal attention. Calculation of renewable energy accommodation capacity is the basis to solve the problem of abandoning wind and PV power. Main problems of Chinese renewable energy accommodation is analyzed from power supply, power grid and load side aspects, and it focuses on the effect of inter-provincial tie-line to renewable energy accommodation capacity. At present, the inter-provincial tie-line utilization level is limited, which affected renewable energy accommodation to a certain extent. Based on the sequential production simulation model, a new kind of renewable energy accommodation capacity model is put forward considering the utilization level of inter-provincial tie-line. According to different system stability constraints and different electricity constraints of inter-provincial tie-line, 4 schemes are designed for comparative analysis, and the evaluation model is used to calculate renewable energy accommodation capacity of “Three North” region of China in 2020. Example analysis results verify validity of the model that releasing curve constraints, electricity constraints and stability constraints in turn can significantly enhance renewable energy accommodation capacity through effective use of inter-provincial tie-line transmission capacity. Research work in this paper can provide strong support for the planning and scheduling control of power grid.

An Economic Benefit Evaluation Model and its Application for Optimizing Transmission Capacity of Multinational Interconnections

Multinational power grid interconnections play a critical part in supporting the vision of global energy internet.During the early stages of the Global Energy Internet,the value proposition of multinational interconnections should be carefully investigated in order to stimulate the activities for associated countries in such potential interconnections.This paper proposes a new e conomic benefit evaluation model which is quantified by using a chronological production cost simulation approach.The economic benefit model comprehensively considered investment costs and the benefits of the decrease of load payments and the increase of net generation revenue due to a transmission project interconnected with different countries.This economic benefit model can assist to quantitatively determine the optimal transmission capacity for multinational interconnections to achieve maximum economic benefits as a whole.In the case study,the economic benefit of an interconnected system of western China and the Gulf States is assessed by using the method proposed in this paper.And the optimal interconnection capacity with maximum benefit is achieved.The case study shows that the proposed method can be used for economic benefit assessment and is of great significance to the multinational and intercontinental transmission interconnections.

CONCURRENT PRODUCTION ENGINEERING SYSTEM FOR BUFFER SIZE AND FLEXIBLE TRANSFER LINE LAYOUT DESIGN

In this paper we propose a COncurrent Production Engineering System （COPES） for the flexible transfer line （FTL） layout design in a restricted area. COPES first determines the buffer size in front of the bay of each machine tool in the FTL and then initializes a computer aided design （CAD） system to draw the FTL in a restricted area. We develop a set of modules systems which have been integrated into a single framework, in accordance with the practice of concurrent engineering. Concurrent engineering involves the cooperation of these activities. It＇s expected that the developed COPES can improve the cooperation between production engineers＇ and the plant designer. This can be done by enabling the production engineers＇ to make better decision regarding FTL buffer size.

Probabilistic production simulation of a power system with wind power penetration based on improved UGF techniques

Universal Generating Function(UGF)techniques have been applied to Multi-State System(MSS)reliability analysis,such as long term reserve expansion of power systems with high wind power penetration.However,using simple steady-state distribution models for wind power and large generating units in reliability assessment can yield pessimistic appraisals.To more accurately assess the power system reliability,UGF techniques are extended to dynamic probabilistic simulation analysis on two aspects of modelling improvement.Firstly,a principal component analysis(PCA)combined with a hierarchal clustering algorithm is used to achieve the salient and time-varying patterns of wind power,then a sequential UGF equivalent model of wind power output is established by an apportioning method.Secondly,other than the traditional two-state models,the conventional generator UGF equivalent model is established as a four discrete-state continuous-time Markov model by Lztransform.In the construction process of such a UGF model,the state values are transformed into the integral multiples of one common factor by choosing proper common factors,thus effectively restraining the exponential growth of its state number and alleviating the explosion thereof.The method is suitable for reliability assessment with dynamic probabilistic distributed random variables.In addition,by acquiring the clustering information of wind power,the system reliability indices,such as fuel cost and CO_(2) emissions through different seasons and on different workdays,are calculated.Finally,the effectiveness of the method is verified by a modified IEEE-RTS 79 system integrated with several wind farms of historical hourly wind power data of Zhangbei wind farm in North China.

Renewable Generation Capacity and Reliability Assessments for Resilient Active Distribution Networks Based on Time-sequence Production Simulation

The penetration of renewable generation will affect the energy utilization efficiency,economic benefit and reliability of the active distribution network(ADN).This paper proposes a time-sequence production simulation(TSPS)method for re-newable generation capacity and reliability assessments in ADN considering two operational status:the normal status and the fault status.During normal operation,an optimal dispatch model is proposed to promote the renewable consumption and increase the economic benefit.When a failure occurs,the renewable generators are partitioned into islands for resilient power supply and reliability improvement.A novel dynamic island partition model is presented based on mixed integer second-order cone programming(MISOCP).The effectiveness of the proposed TSPS method is demonstrated in a standard network integrated with historical data of load and renewable generations.

Towards modeling pedestrian’s invisible trail for simulating crowd movement

Facility layout problem(FLP)contemplates the optimization of space utilization,costs,and material flow.Commercial simulation softwares are commonly used to validate layouts by simulating the real world material flow and production process.To validate a layout scenario of a solar module assembly workshop,a 3D simulation model is presented which was designed on VisualComponents software.To begin with,we introduce the layout characteristics and use the systematic layout planning(SLP)method to design the block layout of workshop.Then,we built components library which contains all the facilities needed in the production line,specifically conveyors,processing equipments,robots,buffers.Finally,we have established a simulation layout model using the components in the customized library according to the block layout,and configured the components which were allocated in the layout by setting the parameters and building the connection between components via signal.To improve the performance of the workshop,we have found the best work-in-process(WIP)value for the workshop and the optimal number of workers.Additionally,the layout model was used to test collision and reachability.It demonstrated the production process in a realistic simulation environment which helped in the sales process as well.The reusable component models we have built make it easy to build a layout within a short time and validate the effectiveness of the layout scenarios for any other projects.

Using simulation in layout verification of solar module assembly workshop

Facility layout problem(FLP)contemplates the optimization of space utilization,costs,and material flow.Commercial simulation softwares are commonly used to validate layouts by simulating the real world material flow and production process.To validate a layout scenario of a solar module assembly workshop,a 3D simulation model is presented which was designed on VisualComponents software.To begin with,we introduce the layout characteristics and use the systematic layout planning(SLP)method to design the block layout of workshop.Then,we built components library which contains all the facilities needed in the production line,specifically conveyors,processing equipments,robots,buffers.Finally,we have established a simulation layout model using the components in the customized library according to the block layout,and configured the components which were allocated in the layout by setting the parameters and building the connection between components via signal.To improve the performance of the workshop,we have found the best work-in-process(WIP)value for the workshop and the optimal number of workers.Additionally,the layout model was used to test collision and reachability.It demonstrated the production process in a realistic simulation environment which helped in the sales process as well.The reusable component models we have built make it easy to build a layout within a short time and validate the effectiveness of the layout scenarios for any other projects.