Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

基于FLUS-UGB模型的城镇扩展模拟研究

优化城镇空间布局结构、提高城镇化质量是新型城镇化发展的必然要求。以南京市为研究区,结合地形地貌、交通、人口等多源数据提取影响因子,依据2015、2019年的土地利用数据利用FLUS-UGB模型模拟南京市2035年城镇空间布局。根据模拟结果,南京市城镇空间扩展呈现一核多点的特征,并依附现有城镇建设地块或向外扩延或向内集聚增长,城镇空间的拓展主要沿长江两岸展开。此项研究可为因地制宜优化区域城镇空间布局、合理划定城镇开发边界,提供参考依据。

基于FLUS和InVEST模型的云贵高原土地利用与生态系统服务时空变化多情景模拟研究

[目的]探讨云贵高原不同情景下的土地利用与生态系统服务时空变化,为云贵高原土地利用空间格局优化、生态系统服务功能提升和可持续发展策略制定提供科学依据。[方法]以云贵高原为研究对象,以2001年、2010年和2020年3期MCD12Q1土地覆被数据为基础数据,辅以自然和社会经济数据,基于ArcGIS,FLUS模型和InVEST模型,模拟2030年、2040年和2050年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和耕地保护情景下的土地利用以及碳储量、产水量和土壤保持量3项生态系统服务功能时空分布格局。[结果](1)不同情景下云贵高原的土地利用变化以林地持续增加和草地持续减少为主要趋势;耕地保护情景下,耕地面积最高可占总面积的10.38%;生态保护情景下,林草面积在2050年可达总面积的90%。(2) 3种情景下,云贵高原2020—2050年碳储量和土壤保持量均呈上升趋势,而产水量呈下降趋势。生态保护情景下,2050年碳储量预测值最高,为8.13×10^(9) t;产水量减少速率显著低于另外两种情景,降幅为0.46%。(3)宜昌市、普洱市和常德市等市州的生态系统服务供给能力较高;而贵阳市、毕节市和安顺市等市州的生态系统服务供给能力较低。[结论]云贵高原2020—2050年整体生态系统服务供给能力较好,各项服务功能在不同情景下表现出较强的空间聚集性和异质性。云贵高原今后的生态系统服务管理和可持续发展中,应考虑不同生态系统服务功能的空间异质性以及林地面积持续增加可能带来的水资源失衡问题。

基于FLUS模型多情景土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量影响——以江西萍乡为例

[目的]揭示萍乡碳储量时空分布特征,阐明土地地类变化与碳储量之间的关系,为探明区域生态系统碳储量状况提供数据支撑。[方法]利用FLUS(future land use simulation)模型与InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)模型,预测了2030年萍乡市3种不同情景下(自然发展、耕地保护和生态优先)碳储量值。[结果](1)2010—2020年萍乡市碳储量整体呈下降趋势,共减少1.47×10^(6)t;(2)耕地、建设用地、草地、水体和建设用地面积增加和林地与灌木面积减少,是导致碳储量变化的主要原因;(3)2030年自然发展、耕地保护和生态优先情景下陆地生态系统碳储量分别约为4.906×10^(7),4.919×10^(7),5.038×10^(7)t,其中生态优先情景下碳储量损失最少。[结论]萍乡生态系统碳储量呈下降趋势,主要受耕地与建设用地增大的影响,未来应加强对安源区与经济开发区重点变化区域的监测研究。

基于Invest模型和Flus模型的江苏省碳储量变化模拟与预测

为明确土地利用变化对碳储量的具体影响,实现耕地、林地等生态环境的更好保护,以江苏省为例,基于2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据,采用Invest模型的碳储存和固定模块以及Flus模型ANN模块、CA模块、Markov Chain模块,分析了江苏省不同土地利用类型碳储量变化特征,并预测了自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年和2050年江苏省碳储存与固定情况。结果表明,2000年、2010年与2020年,江苏省碳储量整体呈下降趋势,从1803.948×10^(6)t下降至1641.008×10^(6)t,其中耕地碳储量下降最多,为239.494×10^(6)t。这种现象的发生与江苏省工业化和城市化导致的耕地和林地等面积的减少并转为建筑用地有关。此外,各市碳储量差异较显著,其中盐城市碳储量最大,占全省总碳储量的16.12%,无锡市在全省碳储量中占比最小(4.12%)。基于ArcGIS 10.2软件和GeoDa 1.20软件分析发现,2000—2010年,南京、无锡、常州的碳储量分布呈低-低聚集,连云港市呈低-高聚集;2020年无锡、常州、镇江呈现低-低聚集,连云港市呈现高-高聚集。本研究预测结果表明2030年和2050年的生态保护情景下碳存储能力较自然发展情景有一定提升,分别提升6.069×10^(6)t和5.861×10^(6)t。本研究结果可为江苏省更好地建设生态环境提供数据支撑。

耦合NSGA-Ⅲ和FLUS模型的生态脆弱农区土地利用多目标协同优化配置

依托数学模型和情景模拟,形成弹性的土地利用优化配置方案,对促进生态脆弱农区生态、农业和经济用地协调发展具有重要意义。以河套灌区乌兰布和灌域为例,采用MSPA(morphological spatial pattern analysis)和斑块重要性指数识别和提取生态源地,耦合NSGA-Ⅲ(non-dominated sorting genetic algorithmⅢ)和FLUS(future land use simulation)模型,基于4种情景模拟形成具有弹性的生态脆弱农区土地利用优化配置方案。结果表明:基于NSGA-Ⅲ可以快速形成研究区多目标下的Pareto解集,且解集内的各目标效益均优于2020年土地利用效益值。生态安全优先发展、粮食生产优先发展和经济优先发展情景存在其他两项目标效益提升不明显的情况。相对来说,最小土地利用变化条件下的均衡效益发展情景可在土地利用变化幅度最小的情况下,达到更高、更均衡的综合效益。制订土地利用优化配置方案时,在参考各情景土地利用优化配置布局的基础上识别土地利用协调冲突区,有助于形成弹性的土地利用优化配置方案,以适应区域可能发生的内外部经济政策环境变化。

基于Plant Simulation的化纤自动落丝系统仿真实验分析

基于Plant Simulation软件,构建一种化纤自动落丝系统的3D数字化模型,对系统效率关键输入因子进行参数化设置,将系统各工位三维数字模型导入软件中建立层次化运动机构图形结构,并运用Simltalk语言实现三维动作仿真,通过基础物理参数设置,保证了仿真数字化模型与现实系统更具一致性。通过多级实验设计分析了系统影响因子对于系统效率的影响特性曲线,并进一步通过动态参数化实验方法,计算出双输入因子对系统效能影响的敏感度。该实验结果可为化纤自动落丝系统的建设成本控制与可行性分析提供指导,具有较好的工程应用价值。

基于FLUS-ACO模型的农村居民点布局模拟与优化:以张家界市为例

对农村居民点用地进行合理规划对于平衡城乡用地矛盾具有重要意义。以张家界市为例,首先运用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)分析方法分析农村居民点空间分异特征;其次从区位交通、自然环境、社会经济三个方面选取了与公路、河流、学校、医院的距离、高程、温度和降水等14个指标,运用未来土地利用模拟(future land-use simulation,FLUS)模型在自然发展情景下预测2025年、2030年和2035年土地利用状况;最后提取2030年农村居民点用地数据,基于地理模拟与优化系统(geographical simulation and optimization systems,GeoSOS)平台运用蚁群优化算法(ant colony optimization,ACO)进行空间布局优化,采用景观格局指数量化分析优化前后变化并给出建议。研究发现:①张家界市农村居民点近几年用地增加但聚集度减小,布局总体表现出“中东部密,西北部疏”的分异特征,破碎化明显,需要进行科学合理规划;②农村居民点的分布密度分别为永定区>慈利县>武陵源区>桑植县,布局模式按基本形态可划分为团状、带状、零散和组团模式;③FLUS模型预测2025年、2030年和2035年农村居民点规模通过精度验证,在2025—2035年间由扩张趋于平稳,局部密度增长但整体密度变化不大,形状与其他类型用地相比较为简单;④优化后农村居民点用地整体布局往地势平坦区域聚集,形态表现为“整体聚集、局部分散”,该研究可为区域农村用地布局规划提供技术支撑。

基于Simulation X的多轴转向系统功能安全仿真分析

基于ISO 26262《道路车辆功能安全》的标准要求,对特种车的多轴电液转向系统进行分析,以提高系统的安全性和可靠性。运用Simulation X软件建立详细的多轴特种车仿真模型,通过模拟故障模式注入进行仿真试验。对仿真结果和数据进行分析,评估得到故障的严重性、暴露度和可控性,从而确定相应的汽车安全完整性等级。基于故障注入仿真的汽车功能安全分析方法,在系统早期设计阶段可以作为评估架构安全性的重要手段。

基于Plant Simulation的压气机叶片型线加工产线分析与优化

运用专业仿真软件Plant Simulation,根据压气机叶片型线机械加工工艺特点和物料运行流程建立生产线仿真模型,从产能、设备利用率及产线瓶颈等多方面进行仿真分析与优化。结果表明:Plant Simulation仿真平台的仿真可以找出规划设计方案中存在的问题并验证方案的合理性。该仿真结果为型线机械加工产线的优化设计提供了可靠依据,达到了节约投资成本和缩短设计周期的目的。

The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus clouds.Accurately obtaining the entrainment rate(λ)is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization scheme.In this study,an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculateλof cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation.The results demonstrate that the improved bulk-plume method is more reliable than the traditional bulk-plume method,becauseλ,as calculated from the improved method,falls within the range ofλvalues obtained from the traditional method using different conserved variables.The probability density functions ofλfor all data,different times,and different heights can be well-fitted by a log-normal distribution,which supports the assumed stochastic entrainment process in previous studies.Further analysis demonstrate that the relationship betweenλand the vertical velocity is better than other thermodynamic/dynamical properties;thus,the vertical velocity is recommended as the primary influencing factor for the parameterization ofλin the future.The results of this study enhance the theoretical understanding ofλand its influencing factors and shed new light on the development ofλparameterization.

基于Simulation的薄壁桶搬运过程的形变研究

桶料的搬运方式主要有托底式、夹取式和挂取(吊取)式,文中针对薄壁桶的搬运方式进行模拟分析,通过模拟分析的具体数值来进行合理的选择。主要对挂取(吊取)和夹取2种薄壁桶的搬运方式进行模拟分析,基于Soildworks中的Simulation进行计算,并得出具体数值,选取合理的薄壁桶搬运方式。模拟分析表明:在同等桶壁厚的情况下,夹取式桶料搬运形式薄壁桶的变形程度较大,主要体现在薄壁桶的夹持部位,如特定场景需夹持薄壁桶的桶身进行搬运时,还需适当加厚薄壁桶的桶壁来抵抗夹持板的夹持力,使薄壁桶不会产生较大的形变量。

Global hybrid simulations of soft X-ray emissions in the Earth’s magnetosheath

Earth’s magnetopause is a thin boundary separating the shocked solar wind plasma from the magnetospheric plasmas,and it is also the boundary of the solar wind energy transport to the magnetosphere.Soft X-ray imaging allows investigation of the large-scale magnetopause by providing a two-dimensional(2-D)global view from a satellite.By performing 3-D global hybrid-particle-in-cell(hybrid-PIC)simulations,we obtain soft X-ray images of Earth’s magnetopause under different solar wind conditions,such as different plasma densities and directions of the southward interplanetary magnetic field.In all cases,magnetic reconnection occurs at low latitude magnetopause.The soft X-ray images observed by a hypothetical satellite are shown,with all of the following identified:the boundary of the magnetopause,the cusps,and the magnetosheath.Local X-ray emissivity in the magnetosheath is characterized by large amplitude fluctuations(up to 160%);however,the maximum line-of-sight-integrated X-ray intensity matches the tangent directions of the magnetopause well,indicating that these fluctuations have limited impact on identifying the magnetopause boundary in the X-ray images.Moreover,the magnetopause boundary can be identified using multiple viewing geometries.We also find that solar wind conditions have little effect on the magnetopause identification.The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission will provide X-ray images of the magnetopause for the first time,and our global hybrid-PIC simulation results can help better understand the 2-D X-ray images of the magnetopause from a 3-D perspective,with particle kinetic effects considered.

Magnetopause properties at the dusk magnetospheric flank from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations,the kinetic Vlasov equilibrium,and in situ observations--Potential implications for SMILE

We derived the properties of the terrestrial magnetopause(MP)from two modeling approaches,one global–fluid,the other local–kinetic,and compared the results with data collected in situ by the Magnetospheric Multiscale 2(MMS2)spacecraft.We used global magnetohydrodynamic(MHD)simulations of the Earth’s magnetosphere(publicly available from the NASA-CCMC[National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Community Coordinated Modeling Center])and local Vlasov equilibrium models(based on kinetic models for tangential discontinuities)to extract spatial profiles of the plasma and field variables at the Earth’s MP.The global MHD simulations used initial solar wind conditions extracted from the OMNI database at the time epoch when the MMS2 observes the MP.The kinetic Vlasov model used asymptotic boundary conditions derived from the same in situ MMS measurements upstream or downstream of the MP.The global MHD simulations provide a three-dimensional image of the magnetosphere at the time when the MMS2 crosses the MP.The Vlasov model provides a one-dimensional local view of the MP derived from first principles of kinetic theory.The MMS2 experimental data also serve as a reference for comparing and validating the numerical simulations and modeling.We found that the MP transition layer formed in global MHD simulations was generally localized closer to the Earth(roughly by one Earth radius)from the position of the real MP observed by the MMS.We also found that the global MHD simulations overestimated the thickness of the MP transition by one order of magnitude for three analyzed variables:magnetic field,density,and tangential speed.The MP thickness derived from the local Vlasov equilibrium was consistent with observations for all three of these variables.The overestimation of density in the Vlasov equilibrium was reduced compared with the global MHD solutions.We discuss our results in the context of future SMILE(Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer)campaigns for observing the Earth’s MP.

Hybrid-Vlasov simulation of soft X-ray emissions at the Earth’s dayside magnetospheric boundaries

Solar wind charge exchange produces emissions in the soft X-ray energy range which can enable the study of near-Earth space regions such as the magnetopause,the magnetosheath and the polar cusps by remote sensing techniques.The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)and Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)missions aim to obtain soft Xray images of near-Earth space thanks to their Soft X-ray Imager(SXI)instruments.While earlier modeling works have already simulated soft X-ray images as might be obtained by SMILE SXI during its mission,the numerical models used so far are all based on the magnetohydrodynamics description of the space plasma.To investigate the possible signatures of ion-kinetic-scale processes in soft Xray images,we use for the first time a global hybrid-Vlasov simulation of the geospace from the Vlasiator model.The simulation is driven by fast and tenuous solar wind conditions and purely southward interplanetary magnetic field.We first produce global X-ray images of the dayside near-Earth space by placing a virtual imaging satellite at two different locations,providing meridional and equatorial views.We then analyze regional features present in the images and show that they correspond to signatures in soft X-ray emissions of mirrormode wave structures in the magnetosheath and flux transfer events(FTEs)at the magnetopause.Our results suggest that,although the time scales associated with the motion of those transient phenomena will likely be significantly smaller than the integration time of the SMILE and LEXI imagers,mirror-mode structures and FTEs can cumulatively produce detectable signatures in the soft X-ray images.For instance,a local increase by 30%in the proton density at the dayside magnetopause resulting from the transit of multiple FTEs leads to a 12%enhancement in the line-of-sight-and time-integrated soft X-ray emissivity originating from this region.Likewise,a proton density increase by 14%in the magnetosheath associated with mirror-mode structures can result in an enhancement in the soft X-ray signal by 4%.These are likely conservative estimates,given that the solar wind conditions used in the Vlasiator run can be expected to generate weaker soft X-ray emissions than the more common denser solar wind.These results will contribute to the preparatory work for the SMILE and LEXI missions by providing the community with quantitative estimates of the effects of small-scale,transient phenomena occurring on the dayside.

基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的乌鲁木齐生态空间模拟

基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型,利用2005和2020年的土地利用数据,对乌鲁木齐市土地利用变化及其农业生态效应进行分析,并建立农田保护、生态保护和城市发展3种情景模拟。结果表明,GeoSOS-FLUS模型具有较高的模拟精度和适用性,能够反映乌鲁木齐市土地利用变化特征。在不同情景模拟下,乌鲁木齐市土地利用空间布局呈现出不同的变化趋势和农业生态效应。

基于FLUS-Markov模型的玉溪市生态系统服务价值时空演变与预测

基于玉溪市2010年、2020年2期生态景观类型数据和粮食产量经济价值修正生态系统服务价值系数,分析玉溪市生态景观类型及生态系统服务价值分布特征,采用FLUS-Markov模型预测玉溪市2030年生态系统服务价值及其分布。结果表明,该模型预测结果的Kappa系数提高至0.8969,整体精度为0.9393,精度较高;2010—2020年玉溪市林地、草地的面积呈减少趋势,以林地、草地、水域为主的生态系统仍然面临威胁;2030年玉溪市生态系统服务价值为535.0471亿元,变化率为-0.1297%,玉溪市应加强对林地、草地的保护,加强退耕还林、退耕还草政策的实施,合理控制草地、林地向耕地的转化;2030年玉溪市生态系统服务价值依然表现为西部>中部>东部;2030年玉溪市各县市区生态系统服务价值贡献率由高到低依次为新平县、元江县、峨山县、易门县、华宁县、红塔区、江川区、澄江市、通海县。

Delineation of urban growth boundary based on FLUS model under the perspective of land use evaluation in hilly mountainous areas

With rapid economic development,the size of urban land in China is expanding dramatically.The Urban Growth Boundary(UGB)is an expandable spatial boundary for urban construction in a certain period in order to control the urban sprawl.Reasonable delineation of UGB can inhibit the disorderly spread of urban space and guide the normal development of the city.It is of practical significance for the construction of green urban space.The study utilizes GIS technology to establish a land construction suitability evaluation system for Nankang city,which is experiencing rapid urban expansion,and outlines the preliminary UGB under the future land use simulation(FLUS)model.At the same time,considering the coupled coordination of"Production-Living-Ecological Space",and based on the suitability evaluation,we revised the preliminary UGB by combining the advantages of the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model and the convex hull model to delineate the final UGB.The results show that:1)the comprehensive score of the evaluation of the suitability of the construction of land from high to low shows the distribution of the center of the city to the surrounding circle type spread,the center of the city has the highest suitability score.The results of convex hull model show that the urban expansion type of Nankang is epitaxial.In the future,the urban expansion will mainly occur in the northern part of the city.The PLUS model predicts an increase of 3359.97 hm^(2)of construction land in Nankang by 2035,of which 2022.97 hm^(2)is urban construction land.2)The FLUS model has a prediction accuracy of 86.3%and delineates a preliminary UGB area of 9215.07 hm^(2).3)We used the results of the construction suitability evaluation,PLUS model simulation results,and convex hull model predictions to revise the originally delineated UGB.The final delineated UGB area is 8895.67 hm^(2)and it is capable of meeting the future development of the study area.The results of the delineation can promote sustainable urban development,and the delineation methodology can provide a reference basis for the preparation of territorial spatial planning.

Machine learning-enhanced Monte Carlo and subset simulations for advanced risk assessment in transportation infrastructure

The maintenance of safety and dependability in rail and road embankments is of utmost importance in order to facilitate the smooth operation of transportation networks.This study introduces a comprehensive methodology for soil slope stability evaluation,employing Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)and Subset Simulation(SS)with the"UPSS 3.0 Add-in"in MS-Excel.Focused on an 11.693-meter embankment with a soil slope(inclination ratio of 2H:1V),the investigation considers earthquake coefficients(kh)and pore water pressure ratios(ru)following Indian zoning requirements.The chance of slope failure showed a considerable increase as the Coefficient of Variation(COV),seismic coefficients(kh),and pore water pressure ratios(ru)experienced an escalation.The SS approach showed exceptional efficacy in calculating odds of failure that are notably low.Within computational modeling,the study optimized the worst-case scenario using ANFIS-GA,ANFIS-GWO,ANFIS-PSO,and ANFIS-BBO models.The ANFIS-PSO model exhibits exceptional accuracy(training R2=0.9011,RMSE=0.0549;testing R2=0.8968,RMSE=0.0615),emerging as the most promising.This study highlights the significance of conducting thorough risk assessments and offers practical insights into evaluating and improving the stability of soil slopes in transportation infrastructure.These findings contribute to the enhancement of safety and reliability in real-world situations.

基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的荆州市生态安全评估

为探索荆州市的生态安全底线,模拟未来的土地利用变化和生态系统服务价值变化,为荆州市的生态保护制定合理的政策建议,从供给和需求的角度,结合粮食安全标准,测算了荆州市的生态安全底线;利用GeoSOS-FLUS模型在自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护和双重保护4种情景下,模拟了未来的土地利用变化和生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明:荆州市的供给生态安全底线为1 227.56亿,需求生态安全底线为7 690.12亿,存在较大的生态安全缺口;双重保护情景下的生态系统服务价值最接近需求生态安全底线,也能提供相对更多的粮食,最有利于平衡生态安全和粮食安全。本文探索性地从供给和需求的角度结合粮食安全标准,计算了荆州市的生态安全底线,利用了一种先进的土地利用变化模拟方法,为其他地区的生态安全评估和保护提供了借鉴,为荆州市的生态环境优化模式和方向提供了参考。