A new method for evaluating the firing precision of multiple launch rocket system based on Bayesian theory

How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.

Study of industrially applied methods for verification, validation and uncertainty quantification of simulator models

To better utilize the potential of system simulation models and simulators,industrially applicable methods for Verification,Validation and Uncertainty Quantification(VV&UQ)are crucial.This paper presents an exploratory case study of VV&UQ techniques applied on models integrated in aircraft system simulators at Saab Aeronautics and in driving simulators at the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute(VTI).Results show that a large number of Verification and Validation(V&V)techniques are applied,some of which are promising for further development and use in simulator credibility assessment.Regarding the application of UQ,a large gap between academia and this part of industry has been identified,and simplified methods are needed.The applicability of the NASA Credibility Assessment Scale(CAS)at the studied organizations is also evaluated and it can be concluded that the CAS is considered to be a usable tool for achieving a uniform level of V&V for all models included in a simulator,although its implementation at the studied organizations requires tailoring and coordination.