Atmospheric Warming Slowdown during 1998-2013 Associated with Increasing Ocean Heat Content

Although atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continuously increased, there was relatively little change in global-averaged surface temperatures from 1998 to 2013, which is known as atmospheric warming slowdown. For further understanding the mechanism involved, we explored the energy redistribution between the atmosphere and ocean in different latitudes and depths by using data analysis as well as simulations of a coupled atmosphere–ocean box model. The results revealed that, compared with observational changes of ocean heat content (OHC) associated with rapid warming, the OHC changes related to warming slowdown are relatively larger in multiple ocean basins, particularly in the deeper layer of the Atlantic. The coupled box model also showed that there is a larger increasing trend of OHC under the warming slowdown scenario than the rapid warming scenario. Particularly, during the warming slowdown period, the heat storage in the deeper ocean increases faster than the ocean heat uptake in the surface ocean. The simulations indicated that the warming patterns under the two scenarios are accompanied by distinct outgoing longwave radiation and atmospheric meridional heat transport, as well as other related processes, thus leading to different characteristics of ocean heat uptake. Due to the global energy balance, we suggest this slowdown has a tight relationship with the accelerated heat transport into the global ocean.

Slowdown of sea surface height rises in the Nordic seas and related mechanisms

A slowdown of sea surface height （SSH） rise occurred in the Nordic （GIN） seas around 2004. In this study, SSH satellite data and constructed steric height data for the decades before and after 2004 （i.e., May 1994 to April 2014） were used for comparative analysis. The findings indicate that the rate of slowdown of SSH rises in the GIN seas （3.0 mm/a） far exceeded that of the global mean （0.6 mm/a）. In particular, the mean steric height of the GIN seas increased at a rate of 4.5 mm/a and then decreased at a slower pace. This was the main factor responsible for the stagnation of the SSH rises, while the mass factor only increased slightly. The Norwegian Sea particularly experienced the most prominent slowdown in SSH rises, mainly due to decreased warming of the 0-600 m layer. The controlling factors of this decreased warming were cessation in the increase of volume of the Atlantic inflow and stagnation of warming of the inflow. However, variations in air-sea thermal flux were not a major factor. In the recent two decades, mean halosteric components of the GIN seas decreased steadily and remained at a rate of 2 mm/a or more because of increased flow and salinity of the Atlantic inflow during the first decade, and reduction in freshwater inputs from the Arctic Ocean in the second decade.

Policy Suggestions for the Slowdown in Per Capital Output of Grain Growth in China

China is a large agricultural and the most populous country, so it is a crucial importance for the food security. The basic situation of food in our country is self-sufficiency, a certain amount of imports and reserves. The output of grain in our country has increased annually, however, as a result of policy adjustments and other factors like environmental pollution, together with a large population base and the trend of excessively popu- lous growth, the growth of grain output is relatively slow, which will be harmful for our grain security as well as the healthy development of the na- tional economy. In this case, several solutions could be tried, such as improving the level of science and technology, adjusting industrial policies and controlling environmental pollution. Besides, we ought to strongly advocate thrifty behavior to increase income and reduce expenditure.

China's Economy Registered Moderate Slowdown

CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH IS EXPECTED AT 9.1 PERCENT IN 2011, 8.4 PERCENT IN 2012 AND ROUGHLY SIMILAR RATES THEREAFTER.The Chinese economy registered a moderate slowdown over the course of 2011, the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.

Experts: Chinese Economic Boom Against Global Slowdown

China economic boom to last until at least 2020"The cycle of economic boom in China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, would last until at least 2020", said an expert with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the top economic planner.

Keeping the Slowdown in Check

CHINA＇S GDP growth slipped to 7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, the lowest level in six years. On the other side of the equation, convincing signs of an improved economic structure, a buoyant job market and faster-than-expected consumer spending are solid evidence of a better-quality and increas- ingly mature economy. That said, in order to keep the slowdown in check, the central authorities have been urged to take further steps to tackle potential risks, including a lackluster property sector, persist- ent deflationary pressure and high financing costs for businesses. The first-quarter GDP figure was better than previ- ously forecast by multiple institutions. It has also met the annual target of 7 percent set by the Central Government for 2015.

China＇s Economic Slowdown under Supply-Side Perspective

This paper creates an analytical framework for ongoing China's economic slowdown and reveals the major factors affecting potential growth rate. First, proceeding from the factors that led to a decline in China's potential growth rate, this paper demonstrates that the slowdown since 2012 is not caused by demand-side shocks but is a natural result of the demographic transition and the change of economic development stage that stemmed from supply-side factors. It is therefore suggested that the demandside perspective for cyclical analysis must be abandoned and the supply-side perspective for growth analysis ought to be followed. Secondly, this paper argues that it is theoretically unfounded and empirically unconvincing for existing literature based on the growth perspective to simply apply the statistical pattern of "regression towards the mean" to forecast China's growth outlook and thus arrive at pessimistic conclusions. On this basis, this paper identifies a host of initiatives that can significantly increase potential growth rates and proposes policy recommendations for deriving reform dividends from supply-side structural reform.

越南2023年回顾与2024年展望

政治方面,2023年越南政治上妥善应对高层政局变动,选举产生新一任国家主席和两位副总理。对党、政、国会各级官员开展信任测评工作,以总结过去的工作成效、为下一步官员选任工作提供依据。成立五个工作小组、启动越共十四大筹备工作。经济方面,着力克服工业领域增速严重放缓、服务业增速未达预期、国际需求疲软导致进出口双下降等困难,有效维护宏观经济稳定、吸引外资额创历史新高,全年经济增速为5.05%,未能达成国会提出的增长目标,也成为2011年后经济增速第三低的年度。外交方面,越南走出大量外交官受纪律处分的阴霾,分别与中国建成具有战略意义的命运共同体,与美国、日本建成全面战略伙伴关系,取得诸多“具有历史性的成就”。展望2024年,越南将启动党政换届工作,总结施政经验、讨论未来发展方向。外交上继续深化伙伴关系,谋求在多边组织中发挥更大作用。在出口和消费均有望增长的情况下,2024年越南经济增速有望提升,但外资流入可能放缓,越南基础设施建设薄弱等固有桎梏仍待克服。

Quantifying the Impact of In-Cab Alerts on Truck Speed Reductions in Ohio

In-cab alerts warn commercial vehicle drivers of upcoming roadway incidents, slowdowns and work zone construction activities. This paper reports on a study evaluating the driver response to in-cab alerts in Ohio. Driver response was evaluated by measuring the statistical trends of vehicle speeds after the in-cab alerts were received. Vehicle speeds pre and post in-cab alert were collected over a 47 day period in the fall of 2023 for trucks traveling on interstate roadways in Ohio. Results show that approximately 22% of drivers receiving Dangerous Slowdown alerts had reduced their speeds by at least 5 mph 30 seconds after receiving such an alert. Segmenting this analysis by speed found that of vehicles traveling at or above 70 mph at the time of alerting, 26% reduced speeds by at least 5 mph. These speed reductions suggest drivers taking actional measures after receiving alerts. Future studies will involve further analysis on the impact of the types of alerts shown, roadway characteristics and overall traffic conditions on truck speeds passing through work zones.

出口放缓与国内市场一体化:基于1999—2019年中国商品市场的研究

出口放缓这一现象开始于2008年金融危机,受全球经济低迷和外部需求紧缩的冲击,中国进入了出口放缓的阶段。随着中美“脱钩”愈演愈烈,叠加紧张的国际地缘政治局势,未来中国出口贸易下行的压力依然较大。中国出口放缓的经济效应值得关注。文章以商品市场为例,利用1999—2019年省级出口贸易和商品价格数据,考察了中国出口放缓对国内市场一体化的影响。为了缓解可能存在的内生性问题,文章采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS),估计结果发现,出口放缓会倒逼和加快地区间市场一体化的进程。在采用更换解释变量、缩尾处理、长差分检验和更换工具变量等方法后,文章的结果保持稳健。异质性分析的结果表明,这一效应尤其表现在沿海、加工贸易占比高和国有经济占比低的省份。文章还使用省份铁路货运量数据进行拓展性分析,结果显示,在一省的出口放缓后,其省内,以及它与其他省份间的铁路货运量均显著增加。文章的研究结果表明,构建统一开放和竞争有序的全国大市场是中国出口放缓后经济发展的内在要求,各地要顺势而为,破除行政边界对经济活动的束缚,为盘活国内循环创造有利条件。

Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate it.Here,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown.The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown.They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration.This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal scales.In contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural variabilities.Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases(GHGs)and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures(GMSTs).Due to interactions with natural variability,rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales.Here,by analyzing observed and model-simulated data,we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing.We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one.This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability.Moreover,the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

China's Growth Slowdown:Labor Supply,Productivity,or What?

There has been much discussion of the sources of China's growth slowdown but little formal econometric analysis of this question.Chen and Groenewold(2019)show that the slowdown was primarily supply-driven,but they stopped short of identifying specific supply variables.This paper extends their analysis and distinguishes several potential supply components:labor supply,productivity,and capital accumulation.Our results confirm their main conclusion that supply dominates the explanation of the slowdown.A model with two supply factors(labor supply and productivity)reveals that both components contribute to the slowdown,although productivity makes the greater contribution.However,when capital stock is added to the model,the decline in the capital accumulation rate becomes an important factor in the growth slowdown,to some extent replacing the effects of both labor supply and productivity.

Prospects for economic growth in China:putting slowdown in perspective

The slowdown of Chinese economic growth has triggered a great deal of public debate.This paper points out that theoretical projections usually lag behind facts.Economists and policymakers should focus on the reasons and logic behind these projections instead of the specific numbers.In fact,many theories on the reasons for slowing Chinese economic growth are questionable.The Chinese economy will not be doomed by a reduced growth rate.If China can carry forward a new round of reforms,focus more on the accumulation of human capital,and play a more proactive role in global governance,the Chinese economy will acquire benefits from these measures and massive potential for growth will be unleashed.China is very likely to enjoy the fourth consecutive decade-maybe even longer-of strong growth.

About Slight Slowdown

Fears of a "double-dip" recession are haunting the world economy.But a "double-dip" recession is quite unlikely in China as long as the Chinese Government can properly deal with the real estate market, control credit expansion and stabilize the stock

Growth Rate of China's Metal Trade Expected to Slowdown

According to preliminary statistics,China’simport & export of non-ferrous metals areexpected to experience a slowdown in 2004,especially in the growth rate of export,andeven a zero growth rate will show up in the firstquarter.The factors that will affect the importand export of non-ferrous metals in 2004 havebeen analyzed as follows:as the adjustedexport tax refund rates became effectivestarting from January 1st,2004,the end of 2003had seen large amount of non-ferrous export

Troika slowdown of the textile industry in Jan.~Jul.

The data show that, since 2012, influenced by factors like outside need sluggish, domestic demand slowdown, and domestic and foreign cotton spreads widening, China’s textile industry continues the trend of slowing economic growth in the last year, the growth rate of production, exports, investment and other major economic indicators continued to slow down, the e ectiveness declined. Specific performance: production slowdown; domestic consumption growth rate dropped; negative growth in the number of

Slowdown in the First-8-Months Profit Growth of the Textile Industry

Slowdown in Profit Growth According to data collected from statistics-worthy Chinese textile enterprises surveyed by National Bureau of Statistics of China, from Jan. to Aug., 2010, the total profits reached CNY128.649 billion, up 52.42

Export growth slowdown from January to April

January to April this year, the economic operation of China’s textile industry overall in slowdown trend, the growth rate of output of major products fell significantly, exports and profits were greatly affected, the textile industry is facing great operating pressure. The export side, Japan, EU, U.S. textile and garment export growth has slowed down, the market

Continued slowdown of export growth in Oct.

According to customs statistics,in October of 2011,China’s textile and apparel trade reached 21.53 billion U.S.dollars,up 11.1%,in which exports $ 19.65 billion,a year on year increase of 10.4%,yet a month on month decline