A Simulation Study of Hierarchical Bayesian Fusion Spatial Small Area Model for Binary Outcome under Spatial Misalignment

Simulation (stochastic) methods are based on obtaining random samples θ5 from the desired distribution p(θ) and estimating the expectation of any function h(θ). Simulation methods can be used for high-dimensional distributions, and there are general algorithms which work for a wide variety of models. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been important in making Bayesian inference practical for generic hierarchical models in small area estimation. Small area estimation is a method for producing reliable estimates for small areas. Model based Bayesian small area estimation methods are becoming popular for their ability to combine information from several sources as well as taking account of spatial prediction of spatial data. In this study, detailed simulation algorithm is given and the performance of a non-trivial extension of hierarchical Bayesian model for binary data under spatial misalignment is assessed. Both areal level and unit level latent processes were considered in modeling. The process models generated from the predictors were used to construct the basis so as to alleviate the problem of collinearity between the true predictor variables and the spatial random process. The performance of the proposed model was assessed using MCMC simulation studies. The performance was evaluated with respect to root mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and coverage probability of corresponding 95% CI of the estimate. The estimates from the proposed model perform better than the direct estimate.

Constructing Statistical Intervals for Small Area Estimates Based on Generalized Linear Mixed Model in Health Surveys

Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) has been widely used in small area estimation for health indicators. Bayesian estimation is usually used to construct statistical intervals, however, its computational intensity is a big challenge for large complex surveys. Frequentist approaches, such as bootstrapping, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, are also applied but not evaluated in terms of the interval magnitude, width, and the computational time consumed. The 2013 Florida Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data was used as a case study. County-level estimated prevalence of three health-related outcomes was obtained through a GLMM;and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were generated from bootstrapping and MC simulation. The intervals were compared to 95% credential intervals through a hierarchial Bayesian model. The results showed that 95% CIs for county-level estimates of each outcome by using MC simulation were similar to the 95% credible intervals generated by Bayesian estimation and were the most computationally efficient. It could be a viable option for constructing statistical intervals for small area estimation in public health practice.

A Comparison of Hierarchical Bayesian Models for Small Area Estimation of Counts

Small area estimation (SAE) tackles the problem of providing reliable estimates for small areas, i.e., subsets of the population for which sample information is not sufficient to warrant the use of a direct estimator. Hierarchical Bayesian approach to SAE problems offers several advantages over traditional SAE models including the ability of appropriately accounting for the type of surveyed variable. In this paper, a number of model specifications for estimating small area counts are discussed and their relative merits are illustrated. We conducted a simulation study by reproducing in a simplified form the Italian Labour Force Survey and taking the Local Labor Markets as target areas. Simulated data were generated by assuming population characteristics of interest as well as survey sampling design as known. In one set of experiments, numbers of employment/unemployment from census data were utilized, in others population characteristics were varied. Results show persistent model failures for some standard Fay-Herriot specifications and for generalized linear Poisson models with (log-)normal sampling stage, whilst either unmatched or nonnormal sampling stage models get the best performance in terms of bias, accuracy and reliability. Though, the study also found that any model noticeably improves on its performance by letting sampling variances be stochastically determined rather than assumed as known as is the general practice. Moreover, we address the issue of model determination to point out limits and possible deceptions of commonly used criteria for model selection and checking in SAE context.

Combining multiple imperfect data sources for small area estimation:a Bayesian model of provincial fertility rates in Cambodia

Demographic estimation becomes a problem of small area estimation when detaileddisaggregation leads to small cell counts.The usual difficulties of small area estimation are compounded when the available data sources contain measurement errors.We present a Bayesianapproach to the problem of small area estimation with imperfect data sources.The overall modelcontains separate submodels for underlying demographic processes and for measurement processes.All unknown quantities in the model,including coverage ratios and demographic rates,are estimated jointly via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.The approach is illustrated usingthe example of provincial fertility rates in Cambodia.

BLUP Estimation of Linear Mixed-effects Models with Measurement Errors and Its Applications to the Estimation of Small Areas

The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with measurement errors in the covariates. The empirical BLUP estimator of the linear combination of the fixed and random effects and its approximate conditional MSE are derived. The application to the estimation of small area is provided. Simulation study shows good performance of the proposed estimators.

Small area estimation with subgroup analysis

In this article,a new unit level model based on a pairwise penalised regression approach is proposed for problems in small area estimation(SAE).Instead of assuming common regression coefficients for all small domains in the traditional model,the new estimator is based on a subgroup regression model which allows different regression coefficients in different groups.The alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM)algorithm is used to find subgroups with different regression coefficients.We also consider pairwise spatial weights for spatial areal data.In the simulation study,we compare the performances of the new estimator with the traditional small area estimator.We also apply the new estimator to urban area estimation using data from the National Resources Inventory survey in Iowa.

Analysis on the Green Space System Planning of Small Cities in Mountainous Areas

With the urban green space system planning of small cities in mountainous areas as the study object,the planning practices are analyzed and studied to summarize the common characteristics of urban green space system planning in those small cities.Being combined with relevant national standards and regulations,the problems that those small cities are faced with in their urban green space system planning are analyzed,then corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to resolve problems in the practical planning.

Estimating Poverty in Greece in Small Geographical Areas

In this paper, the Small Area methods are presented. We use this method to produce estimates of poverty in Greece, at county （NUTS3） level. This is succeeded by combining survey data from EU-SILC 2013 with auxiliary data derived from the 2011 Census. In the application section, we adopt the Fay and Herriot model and we provide estimates for the percentage of Greek population under the poverty line in 2013 and also the mean equivalized income. Using Fay and Herriot model the percentages of poverty and the mean equivalized income changed in several areas. Also, the standard deviations of the estimates were improved in all prefectures.

Mathematical Model of Small Water-plane Area Twin-hull and Application in Marine Simulator

Small water-plane area twin-hull（SWATH） has drawn the attention of many researchers due to its good sea-keeping ability.In this paper,MMG＇s idea of separation was used to perform SWATH movement modeling and simulation;respectively the forces and moment of SWATH were divided into bare hull,propeller,rudder at the fluid hydrodynamics,etc.Wake coefficient at the propellers which reduces thrust coefficient,and rudder mutual interference forces among the hull and propeller,for the calculation of SWATH,were all considered.The fourth-order Runge-Kutta method of integration was used by solving differential equations,in order to get SWATH＇s movement states.As an example,a turning test at full speed and full starboard rudder of ‘Seagull＇ craft is shown.The simulation results show the SWATH＇s regular pattern and trend of motion.It verifies the correctness of the mathematical model of the turning movement.The SWATH＇s mathematical model is applied to marine simulator in order to train the pilots or seamen,or safety assessment for ocean engineering project.Lastly,the full mission navigation simulating system（FMNSS） was determined to be a successful virtual reality technology application sample in the field of navigation simulation.

Resistance and Seakeeping Numerical Performance Analyses of a Semi-Small Waterplane Area Twin Hull at Medium to High Speeds

The hydrodynamic analysis of a new semi-small waterplane area twin hull （SWATH） suitable for various applications such as small and medium size passenger ferries is presented. This may be an attractive crossover configuration resulting from the merging of two classical shapes： a conventional SWATH and a fast catamaran. The final hull design exhibits a wedge-like waterline shape with the maximum beam at the stem; the hull ends with a very narrow entrance angle, has a prominent bulbous bow typical of SWATH vessels, and features full stern to arrange waterjet propellers. Our analysis aims to perform a preliminary assessment of the hydrodynamic performance of a hull with such a complex shape both in terms of resistance of the hull in calm water and seakeeping capability in regular head waves and compare the performance with that of a conventional SWATH. The analysis is performed using a boundary element method that was preliminarily validated on a conventional SWATH vessel.

Landscape Planning & Design of Small Townlet in Ethnic Area

In this study, the overall planning of Ji Townlet in Jianshan Town, Tujia-Miao Autonomous Prefecture was analyzed. The landscape planning & design of small townlets combined with the natural environment, humanist resources and ethnic features in ethnic area were discussed.

Research on Age-friendly Open Spaces Design in Residential Areas of Small Towns

Taking the accelerating aging and newly promoted urbanization as backdrops, this paper, on one side, analyzed the demands for parks, squares, fi tness facilities, chairs, etc. of elders in small towns from perspectives of unique physical, psychological and social features of elders. On the other side, it also tackled the inadequacies of open spaces in small towns. Moreover, it proposed strategies such as creating social activity spaces, cultivating therapeutic green landscapes, constructing diversely secure fi tness spaces and building age integrated environments, etc. for designing age-friendly open spaces in small towns.

Impact of the Small Town Construction on Original Inhabitants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area——A Case Study in Lishu Village, Changling Town, Chongqing Municipality, China

Based on the five-year long dynamic tracking and investigation of the peasant households of the Lishu village, the influences by small town construction on the economy and employment of the original peasant households are discussed. On the one hand, small town construction plays a positive role in adjustment of the industrial structure of the original peasant households and in the transfer of their employment towards non-agricultural industries. On the other hand the economic growth of the original peasant households is not so well sustainable, and is so fluctuating. Moreover, the unbalance of income distribution of the said households has been furthered, and small town construction has made the existing labor surplus of the original peasant households more serious, particularly the women labor surplus.

Utilization and Management of Small Fishery Population Resources in Coastal and Offshore Areas of China

There are numerous types of living resources in coastal and offshore areas of China. In recent years,both the population type and quantity structure have significant changes,and the stock of small fishery population resources is increasing. This population is precious protein resource. It is urgent to study how to take prompt and effective fishing and take full advantage of processing,utilization and management. Traditional utilization methods are limited by many factors. The utilization efficiency is extremely low. The feed conversion rate of some mariculture fishes with fresh small trash fishes as feeds is even as low as 0. 2. Innovative production and management organization model with aquatic enterprises as leaders greatly increases the utilization efficiency of small fish resources with the aid of marine processing mother ship. In order to further accelerate developing and utilizing small fishery population resources in coastal and offshore areas,China should launch survey and utilization researches of small fishery population resources in coastal and offshore areas,formulate practical and feasible laws,regulations and policies,actively encourage and support autonomous innovative management mode of enterprises,and promote effective utilization and management of coastal and offshore fishery resources.

Determination of Carboplatin Dose by Area Under the Curve in Combination Chemotherapy for Senile Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

To preliminarily determine the appropriate dosage of carboplatin （CBP） at AUC of 5 mg-M1^-1·min^-1 in the combination chemotherapy for Chinese senile patients with non-small cell lung cancer （NSCLC）. Thirty-five Chinese senile patients with NSCLC in advanced stage （Ⅲ/Ⅳ） were given 96 cycles of combination chemotherapy. Chemotherapy schedules included Taxol＋CBP, Gemzar＋CBP and NVB＋CBE The dose of CBP was at 5 mg.mL^-1·min^-1 of area under the concentration-time curve （AUC）. Side effects and quality of life were observed before and after the chemotherapy. Myelosuppression was severe and commonly observed. Grade 3/4 of granulocytopenia was found in 47.9% （46/96） of the patients and grade 3/4 of thrombocytopenia was noted in 28.1% （27/96） of the subjects. However, other side effects were slight. The mean score of quality of life （QOL）, according to the criteria of QOL for Chinese cancer patients had reduced 6.8. At 5 mg.mL^-1·min^-1 by AUC, the hematological toxicity of CBP was severe and it had some negative effects on the QOL. The administration of CBP at 5 mg.mL^-1·min^-1 by AUC may be too high for Chinese senile patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核流行特征分析

目的:分析2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核流行特征,为以后更好开展结核病防治工作提供科学依据。方法:通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”的子系统“结核病信息管理系统”,收集2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核患者相关资料,包括性别、年龄、职业、病原学情况、现住址等,采用描述性流行病学方法进行统计分析。结果:2012—2022年石景山区共报告肺结核患者1954例,年均报告发病率为28.60/10万。肺结核报告发病率由2012年的35.70/10万(231例)下降到2022年的21.85/10万(123例),总体呈下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=40.035,P<0.001)。报告肺结核患者中,男性1288例,女性666例,性别比为1.93∶1,男性报告发病率(37.44/10万,1288/3 440 000)高于女性(19.63/10万,666/3 392 000),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=189.416,P<0.001)。0~14岁、15~64岁、≥65岁3个年龄组肺结核报告发病率分别为2.76/10万(19/688 973)、25.69/10万(1372/5 341 527)和69.21/10万(563/813 409),≥65岁年龄组报告发病率明显高于0~14岁和15~64岁年龄组,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=647.183,P<0.001)。职业分布前5位的是离退休人员(33.88%,662/1954)、家务及待业(21.19%,414/1954)、干部职员(9.88%,193/1954)、工人(8.55%,167/1954)、学生及教师(6.14%,120/1954)。第2季度报告肺结核患者例数最多(26.36%,515/1954),其次是第4季度(25.03%,489/1954),第1季度(23.80%,465/1954)最少。结论:2012—2022年北京市石景山区肺结核报告发病率总体呈下降趋势,≥65岁老年人是石景山区肺结核防控的重点人群,应采取有效措施,尽早发现老年患者,及时采取治疗措施。

小区域尺度视角下的丽江市玉河健康特征研究

随着社会发展,工业化、城镇化进程不断加快,河湖生态问题日益突出且呈现更复杂的发展态势,进行河湖健康评价,开展河湖健康问题诊断,针对性地提出河湖生态系统精准治理、生态修复与保护等对策显的尤为迫切.结合丽江市典型河流玉河,以水域岸线状况、水量水质状况、生物状况、社会服务功能等4个准则层为重要抓手,构建11个指标层的河流健康评价体系,将玉河划分为农村段、城镇段、复合段3个小区域尺度进行综合评价,探讨了小区域尺度河流健康评价差异性特征,研究表明:玉河全河段、各分段均处于亚健康状态,玉河农村段、复合段、各城镇段岸线部分指标层、准则层间健康状况差异性显著,主要存在水资源禀赋差,生态流量小,底栖动物少,局部岸线状况较差的问题.

2016-2023年广州市肺结核登记情况及特征分析

目的:分析2016—2023年广州市肺结核的登记情况及特征,对广州市肺结核防控成效进行评估,为制定结核病防控策略提供科学依据。方法:通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”子系统“结核病信息管理系统”,导出2016年1月1日至2023年12月31日期间按广州市现住址登记的所有临床诊断和实验室诊断的肺结核及结核性胸膜炎患者的数据,数据资料包括患者年龄、性别、职业、现住址、诊断结果、疾病类型等信息,采用描述性统计方法及卡方检验进行分析。结果:2016—2023年广州市共累计登记肺结核患者66716例,年平均登记率从2016年的59.12/10万(9922/16783800)降至2023年的35.92/10万(6763/18827000),呈下降趋势(χ^(2)趋势=1999.652,P=0.000);登记肺结核患者中,男性44892例,女性21824例,男女比例为2.1∶1;年龄主要分布在21~30岁(24.18%,16130/66716);各月份均有病例登记,其中以4月份累计登记患者数最多(6234例);年平均登记率最高地区为越秀区(66.73/10万,5477/8207400),最低为番禺区(39.07/10万,8154/20872100);病原学阳性比例最高为番禺区(58.20%,4746/8154),最低为天河区(49.79%,4029/8092);职业分布以家务及待业比例最高(43.18%,28808/66716)。结论:2016—2023年广州市肺结核登记率呈下降趋势,春夏季为高发季节,男性、21~30岁年龄组、越秀区、家务及待业人群是结核病防治的重点人群。

组合光透视下小面积室内封闭空间分割方法

为提高室内空间的优化规划设计能力,提出基于点云数据语义分割的组合光透视下小面积室内封闭空间分割方法。构建小面积室内封闭空间的环境三维信息感知模型,采用室内空间点云提取室内封闭空间图像的坐标信息,结合语义组合特征分割方法将融合空间信息映射到高分辨空间异质单元结构中,引入几何约束的子空间投影特征信息,结合组合光透视的高分辨率分割图模型参数融合方法,提取小面积室内封闭的端元,采用点云数据语义分割方法实现空间分割。结果表明,采用该方法有效实现对复杂室内场景的三维重建,空间分割的均方根误差较低为0.808%,峰值信噪比较高42.156 dB,空间分割速度较快,平均为12.83 ms。

基于HS-Small模型临江深基坑降水变形特性分析

临江深基坑工程地下水随江水位变化呈现长期水位低、汛期水位高的动态特征,坑内降水导致周围地层渗流场趋于复杂,易引发围护结构破坏、坑底管涌和基坑失稳等工程事故。为此,采用基于HS-Small本构模型对深基坑工程的开挖-降水过程进行模拟,分析了降水影响因素(降水深度、方式、速率和止水帷幕)对周围环境变形的敏感性及其相互之间的关系,并将分析结果与实测结果进行对比验证。结果表明,随临江深基坑土方开挖和降水进行,基坑坡顶、坑外土体和周边建筑物沉降变形逐渐增大,其中降水对基坑变形影响更明显;分次降水能有效降低周围建筑物和地表的沉降变形;降水深度建议控制在底板以下0.5~2.0 m;降水速率对周围环境沉降总量影响相对较小,但对沉降速率影响较大,当降水速率达到最优值时对基坑稳定性控制有益;止水帷幕嵌入深度超过30 m后对控制周围建筑沉降效果不明显。研究结果可为类似临江深基坑降水工程设计施工提供借鉴和参考。