Early Warning of Snow Disaster in Pasturing Areas of Inner Mongolia

Using ground and remote sensing monitoring, and national standards of snow disaster monitoring evaluation standards, quantitative evaluation of snow disaster was realized. Threshold of animal husbandry weather forecast indexes were applied to establish snow disaster early warning for different grasslands in pasturing areas of Inner Mongolia, and make the grade distribution map of snow disaster early warning. The forecast results basically met the real conditions, it proved that this forecast method was capable of evaluating scale and influence degree of snow disaster. However, the snow disaster grade forecast deviated from the real conditions for the influence of weather forecast accuracy rate.

Risk analysis of snow disaster in the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Snow disaster is one of the top ten natural disasters worldwide, and the most se- vere natural disaster to affect the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the hazard harmfulness data collected from historical records and data collected from entities affected by this hazard in 2010, a comprehensive analysis of the 18 indexes of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was conducted, encompassing the hazard harmfulness, the amount of physical exposure the hazard-bearing entities face, the sensitivity to the hazard, and the capacity to respond to the disaster. The analysis indicates that： （1） areas at high-risk of snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are located in certain areas of the counties of Yecheng and Pishan in the Xinjiang region; （2） areas at medium-risk of snow disaster are found between the Gangdise Mountains and the Himalayas in the central-western part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the southeastern part of the southern Qinghai Plateau; （3） the risk of snow disaster is generally low throughout the large area to the south of 30°N and the re- gion on the border of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Overall, the risk of snow disaster in high-altitude areas of the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is higher than that at the edge of the plateau.

The Large Scale Circulation of the Snow Disaster in Southern China in the Beginning of 2008

This study analyzed the heaviest snowfalls or icy-rainfalls occurring in southern China from January to the beginning of February 2008.The results are summarized as follows：the disaster was induced by the persistent front of warm/cold air masses in southern China,which displayed an interaction between the weather systems in higher and lower latitudes.There was an adjustment for circulation at hemisphere scale during mid January by a variation of sign of the Arctic Oscillation（AO）index from negative to positive.The long lasting precipitation well coincided with a blocking situation centered near 80°E from mid January to the beginning of February.A diagnostic analysis indicates that stationary waves with an energy dispersion accompanying the blocking high propagated from upstream region in high latitudes to the south of the Yangtze River,which formed a maintaining energy source for the cyclonic circulation in situ.This resulted in that the large mass of cold air in high latitudes could not easily invade into the south but slowly shifted southward.On the other hand,the sea surface temperature（SST）over the warm pool of the western Pacific increased with a new history record due to the effect of the strong La Nina episode,which also blocked the cold air mass from the north.The blocking high collapsed around 30 January and the energy source for the local cyclonic circulation was cut off.Thus,the precipitation in southern China ceased after 1 February.

Changes in the food supply capacity of alpine grassland ecosystem:A dialectic synthesis of natural and anthropogenic drivers

Grassland-based animal husbandry and livestock production is the main contributor to livelihood creation for herdsmen.By using the structural dynamics method,this study quantified the changes in the food supply capacity(FSC)of alpine grassland ecosystem and sensitivity to significant variables.The findings indicated that:i)Natural factors were the dominated forces affecting FSC,and their contribution was 71.3%.Of these natural elements,the net primary productivity(NPP)and precipitation were the largest contributors,accounting for approximately 35%.The sensitivity index of the FSC to NPP and precipitation during grassland growing season were 4.1 and 1.9 respectively.On the contrary,human factors like warm shed area,density of road,capacity for access to information,contributed to 28.7%of the total FSC.ii)More intense snow disaster had a larger negative impact on FSC.Snow disaster can cause dramatic reduction in FSC,with a loss rate of 27.6%and with none intense disaster more negative impacts,iii)The continuing increase of FSC in the past 30 years from 1984 to 2014 was due to the significant increase of precipitation and NPP in the growing season of alpine grassland.Evidently,successful adaptation to climate change was critical to combat the climatic adversely impact on FSC.Typically,strengthening information dissemination,road accessibility and knowledge popularization of local residents'disaster reduction should be place high priority for improving FSC。