To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based...To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.展开更多
The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) is a well-established loss-rate model to estimate runoff. It combines watershed parameters and climatic factors in one entity curve number (CN). The CN exhibits an i...The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) is a well-established loss-rate model to estimate runoff. It combines watershed parameters and climatic factors in one entity curve number (CN). The CN exhibits an inherent seasonality beyond its spatial variability, which cannot be accounted for by the conventional methods. In the present study, an attempt has been made to determine the CN for different months of monsoon season with an objective to evaluate the impact of monthly CN on runoff estimation for Ozat catchment (Gujarat State, India). The standard CN and month wise CN were determined by three procedures, viz, the median, geometric mean and standard asymptotic fit using gauged rainfall and runoff. This study shows that the predictive capability of CN determination methods can be improved by using monthly CN. Refined Willmott’s index (dr) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to assess and validate the performance of each method. The asymptotic fit CN method with monthly CN resulting dr from 0.46 to 0.49 and MAE from 1.13 mm to 1.18 mm was judged to be more consistent with the existing commonly used CN methods in terms of runoff estimation for the study area.展开更多
密云区是北京重要的地表饮用水源地,准确模拟地表径流量,对于分析泥沙和污染物的运移十分重要。近年来,学者们运用径流曲线数(soil conservation service curve number,SCS-CN)模型计算本区地表径流量,但预报精度不理想;未考虑降雨过程...密云区是北京重要的地表饮用水源地,准确模拟地表径流量,对于分析泥沙和污染物的运移十分重要。近年来,学者们运用径流曲线数(soil conservation service curve number,SCS-CN)模型计算本区地表径流量,但预报精度不理想;未考虑降雨过程和雨强对于产流过程的影响,可能是造成预报误差的重要原因。该文利用密云石匣小流域5个坡面径流小区共201场降雨产流资料,提出次产流径流曲线数计算方法,以改进SCS-CN模型并分析改进后模型模拟效果。结果表明,次产流径流曲线数与多年平均径流曲线数的比值和最大30 min降雨量与次雨量的比值之间呈显著幂函数递增关系,据此提出计算次产流径流曲线数的幂函数方程,以改进SCS-CN模型。当曲线数为0.02时,改进后模型模拟效果最好,效率系数为0.693,明显高于未改进的SCS-CN模型。改进后模型对裸地和耕地的产流模拟效果较好,但对林地的产流模拟效果不理想。今后需在深入分析产流机理的基础上,进一步提出与土壤特性有关的模型参数优化方法。展开更多
Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runo...Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.展开更多
Kaynasli District in the western Black Sea region of Turkey has long been vulnerable to frequent flood damage due to the establishment of settlements within and around stream channels without regard to fluctuating pea...Kaynasli District in the western Black Sea region of Turkey has long been vulnerable to frequent flood damage due to the establishment of settlements within and around stream channels without regard to fluctuating peakstreamflow frequencies. The aim of this research was to determine the measures needed to protect the towns and villages from this type of damage. Daily total precipitation data for 1975–2010 were analysed, and rainfall-runoff models developed to estimate the potential yearly maximum discharge from each stream of sub-watersheds dominated by forests and/or agriculture. This was then calculated for different frequencies of the yearly maximum discharge. Flood analysis and mapping was modified via the one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering CentersRiver Analysis System software to produce potential maximum discharge and geometric data for Kaynasli Creek. As the main creek of the sub-watershed, its crosssection was shown to be insufficient and incapable of containing the maximum discharge at the 100-year frequency presumed for the watershed, and subsequently was seen as having a high level of casualty risk. It was concluded that the one dimensional model could be useful, but 2D models were more suitable for these types of watersheds.展开更多
Rural Ethiopia has significant untapped potential for hydro and solar energy generation systems.However,challenges arise from seasonal variations and unfavourable topographic positions of flowing rivers,hindering the ...Rural Ethiopia has significant untapped potential for hydro and solar energy generation systems.However,challenges arise from seasonal variations and unfavourable topographic positions of flowing rivers,hindering the efficient exploitation of these resources.Despite the country’s abundance in hydro and solar energy resources,>75%of the population still lack access to electricity from the national grid.This work deals with energy resource potential assessment and techno-economic analysis of micro hydro-photovol-taic(PV)hybrid systems,considered in the case study of Goda Warke village,located in the Yaya Gulele district.A novel framework is proposed that utilizes the Natural Resource Soil Conservation Service curve number method to assess the energy potential of micro-hydro energy in ungauged basins,specifically at the exit point of the Girar River basin catchment.The average monthly flow rate in the basin is 0.975 m3/s,while the area exhibits a solar radiation potential of 5.39 kWh/m^(2)/day.Energy policy promotes expanding ac-cess to modern energy sources and utilization of indigenous energy resources.Simulation results indicate that the hydro/PV/diesel generator(DG)/battery and hydro/PV/battery systems are the most optimal choices based on net present cost,with the inclusion of a DG for economic comparison.Micro-hydro energy covers most of the electric load in the area,achieving a capacity factor of 47.5%.The cost of energy and net present cost were found to be sensitive to variables such as the price of diesel fuel,pipe head loss,and the growth of the village load.The optimized system demonstrated a hydro energy potential of 1405.37 MWh/year and a PV energy output of 274.04 MWh/year,resulting in a levelized cost of energy of 0.0057 and 0.049$/kWh for the hydro and PV components,respectively.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.51278239)
文摘To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.
文摘The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) is a well-established loss-rate model to estimate runoff. It combines watershed parameters and climatic factors in one entity curve number (CN). The CN exhibits an inherent seasonality beyond its spatial variability, which cannot be accounted for by the conventional methods. In the present study, an attempt has been made to determine the CN for different months of monsoon season with an objective to evaluate the impact of monthly CN on runoff estimation for Ozat catchment (Gujarat State, India). The standard CN and month wise CN were determined by three procedures, viz, the median, geometric mean and standard asymptotic fit using gauged rainfall and runoff. This study shows that the predictive capability of CN determination methods can be improved by using monthly CN. Refined Willmott’s index (dr) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to assess and validate the performance of each method. The asymptotic fit CN method with monthly CN resulting dr from 0.46 to 0.49 and MAE from 1.13 mm to 1.18 mm was judged to be more consistent with the existing commonly used CN methods in terms of runoff estimation for the study area.
基金This project is supported by the Major Science and Technology Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China(ZDZX2018054)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067013).
文摘Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.
文摘Kaynasli District in the western Black Sea region of Turkey has long been vulnerable to frequent flood damage due to the establishment of settlements within and around stream channels without regard to fluctuating peakstreamflow frequencies. The aim of this research was to determine the measures needed to protect the towns and villages from this type of damage. Daily total precipitation data for 1975–2010 were analysed, and rainfall-runoff models developed to estimate the potential yearly maximum discharge from each stream of sub-watersheds dominated by forests and/or agriculture. This was then calculated for different frequencies of the yearly maximum discharge. Flood analysis and mapping was modified via the one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering CentersRiver Analysis System software to produce potential maximum discharge and geometric data for Kaynasli Creek. As the main creek of the sub-watershed, its crosssection was shown to be insufficient and incapable of containing the maximum discharge at the 100-year frequency presumed for the watershed, and subsequently was seen as having a high level of casualty risk. It was concluded that the one dimensional model could be useful, but 2D models were more suitable for these types of watersheds.
文摘Rural Ethiopia has significant untapped potential for hydro and solar energy generation systems.However,challenges arise from seasonal variations and unfavourable topographic positions of flowing rivers,hindering the efficient exploitation of these resources.Despite the country’s abundance in hydro and solar energy resources,>75%of the population still lack access to electricity from the national grid.This work deals with energy resource potential assessment and techno-economic analysis of micro hydro-photovol-taic(PV)hybrid systems,considered in the case study of Goda Warke village,located in the Yaya Gulele district.A novel framework is proposed that utilizes the Natural Resource Soil Conservation Service curve number method to assess the energy potential of micro-hydro energy in ungauged basins,specifically at the exit point of the Girar River basin catchment.The average monthly flow rate in the basin is 0.975 m3/s,while the area exhibits a solar radiation potential of 5.39 kWh/m^(2)/day.Energy policy promotes expanding ac-cess to modern energy sources and utilization of indigenous energy resources.Simulation results indicate that the hydro/PV/diesel generator(DG)/battery and hydro/PV/battery systems are the most optimal choices based on net present cost,with the inclusion of a DG for economic comparison.Micro-hydro energy covers most of the electric load in the area,achieving a capacity factor of 47.5%.The cost of energy and net present cost were found to be sensitive to variables such as the price of diesel fuel,pipe head loss,and the growth of the village load.The optimized system demonstrated a hydro energy potential of 1405.37 MWh/year and a PV energy output of 274.04 MWh/year,resulting in a levelized cost of energy of 0.0057 and 0.049$/kWh for the hydro and PV components,respectively.
