Statistical Study of the Geoeffectivity of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections Associated with X-Class Flares during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.

Ascending phase of solar cycle 25 tilts the current El Nino-Southern oscillation transition

自2020年初夏,赤道太平洋地区出现拉尼娜现象并持续两年半多(以下简称2020拉尼娜),对其未来演变的预测引起了很多关注,考虑到11年太阳周期活动对热带太平洋SST异常可能存在锁相影响,本研究分析了当前太阳活动周(即第25太阳周(SC25))对目前热带太平洋ENSO现象未来演变的调节作用,基于历史太阳周的统计特征,作者对第25太阳周达到其最大值的时间提出三种可能的情景,并讨论了不同情景下的太阳活动对未来两年ENSO演变的可能影响,第25太阳周的持续上升阶段在一定程度上抑制了当前2023厄尔尼诺现象发展为超级事件.

Distributions and Structure of the Solar Wind during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

To observe the level of interaction between the solar wind and the geomagnetic activity, we analyzed the distribution of the solar wind speeds according to the different classes of geomagnetic activity and the different phases of solar activity. We found that, the magnetic quiet activity reccord 80% of the solar wind speeds V s observed 88% of solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s. The shock activity observes 82% of the solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s. About 70% of the solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s, are observed in the corotating activity class. The cloud shock activity and fluctuating activity classes observed respectively 37% and 55% of the wind speeds V > 450 km/s. Furthermore, slow solar winds are mainly observed at the minimum phase of each solar cycle;but exceptionally the solar maximum phase of solar cycle 24, records a significant rate of slow solar wind. Shock winds are mainly observed around the solar maximum and recurrent winds are mainly observed at the descending phase of the solar cycle. Corotating stable winds and moderate shock winds dominate respectively at the descending phase and at the maximum phase.

Solar cycle variations in equatorial ionospheric zonal electric fields near sunrise

In this study,we investigate the solar cycle dependence of the sunrise ionospheric zonal electric fields at the equator under geomagnetically quiet conditions.Simulations using the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamics General Circulation Model(TIEGCM)reveal that the equatorial eastward electric field at sunrise decreases with the increase in solar activity,independent of longitude,season,and lower atmospheric tides.The solar cycle dependence of the sunrise zonal electric field is mainly related to the zonal wind dynamo.Moreover,this solar cycle dependence of sunrise electric fields at the equator is dominated by the corresponding variation in the F-region dynamo because the response of conductivity and neutral winds near sunrise to increasing solar flux is stronger in the F-region than in the E-region,although the sunrise eastward enhancement of electric fields is mainly driven by the E-region zonal wind dynamo.Specifically,the westward gradient of low-latitude F-region neutral winds near the dawn terminator tends to produce westward electric fields in the equatorial region that are more pronounced at solar maximum,whereas the midlatitude E-region dynamo induces an eastward enhancement of sunrise electric fields at the equator that decreases slightly with increasing solar activity.This study also reveals that the reason the eastward enhancement of equatorial zonal electric fields near dawn and dusk terminators show opposite solar cycle dependence is because of their different generation mechanisms.

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).

24小时城市的国际经验与启示--以伦敦、纽约和东京为例

在全球化与信息化的背景下,城市的运行和生活呈现出全天候的特征,24小时城市理念应运而生。首先,探讨24小时城市的概念、发展历程及推进策略;通过梳理24小时城市发展的4个阶段,揭示其内涵已由单纯促进夜间消费转向兼顾社会公平。其次,以伦敦、纽约和东京为例,剖析经济、政治、文化3种主要动力在24小时城市中的主要作用和特点,并总结出优化空间利用、加强交通配套、改进夜间照明、完善管理体系等关键举措及挑战。最后,提出我国城市应实施以公平和需求为导向的24小时城市战略,在完善顶层设计、整合时空资源的同时,引入多元主体协同治理,探索灵活的管理方式。

Proposed Wave Momentum Source for Generating the 22-Year Solar Cycle

For the 22-year solar cycle oscillation there is no external time dependent source. A nonlinear oscillation, the solar cycle must be generated internally, and Babcock-Leighton models apply an artificial nonlinear source term that can simulate the observations—which leaves open the question of the actual source mechanism for the solar cycle. Addressing this question, we propose to take guidance from the wave mechanism that generates the 2-year Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the Earth atmosphere. Upward propagating gravity waves, eastward and westward, deposit momentum to generate the observed zonal wind oscillation. On the Sun, helioseismology has provided a thorough understanding of the acoustic p-waves, which propagate down into the convective envelope guided by the increasing temperature and related propagation velocity. Near the tachocline with low turbulent viscosity, the waves propagating eastward and westward can produce an axisymmetric 22-year oscillation of the zonal flow velocities that can generate the magnetic solar dynamo. Following the Earth model, waves in opposite directions can generate in the Sun wind and magnetic field oscillations in opposite directions, the proposition of a potential solar cycle mechanism.

Jovian Planet Influence on the Forcing of Sunspot Cycles

The history of our solar system has been greatly influenced by the fact that there is a large gas giant planet, Jupiter that has a nearly circular orbit. This has allowed relics of the early solar system formation to still be observable today. Since Jupiter orbits the Sun with a period of approximately 12 years, it has always been thought that this could be connected to the nearly 11-year periodic peak in the number of sunspots observed. In this paper, the Sun and planets are considered to be moving about a center of mass point as the different planets orbit the Sun. This is the action of gravity that holds the solar system together. The center of mass for the Jupiter-Sun system actually lies outside the Sun. The four gas giant planets dominate such effects and the four gas giant Jovian planets can be projected together to determine an effective distance from the Sun’s center. Taken together these effects do seem to function as a sunspot forcing factor with a periodicity very close to 11 years. These predictions are made without consideration of any details of what is happening in the interior of the Sun. From these estimates, sunspot cycle 25 will be expected to peak in about September-October of 2025. Sunspot cycle 26 should peak in the year March of 2037.

The Dependence between Solar Flare Emergence and the Average Background Solar X-Ray Flux Emission

Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.

Seasonal Variations of Solar Wind Parameters during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

In this paper, we analyzed diurnal and annual seasonal variations of solar wind parameters such as interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), proton density (N), solar wind speed (V) and solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdym), during the solar cycles 23 and 24. Our study shows that strong geomagnetic disturbances are observed at the equinoxes during both solar cycles. The highest proton densities are observed at solstices during both solar cycles. The greatest solar wind speeds are observed at the equinoxes of solar cycle 23 and at the solstices of solar cycle 24. The highest solar wind dynamic pressures are observed at the solstices of both solar cycles. We also observed an asymmetrical evolution of the seasonal diurnal values of the solar wind parameters during the two cycles, except for the proton density. Our investigations also highlight the fact that the seasonal diurnal values of the solar wind parameters are significant at solar cycle 23 compared to solar cycle 24 characterized by a global weak in solar plasma conditions since the deep minimum that followed the solar cycle 23 leading to an absence of a persistent polar coronal hole. The drop observed in polar field and solar winds parameters during solar cycle 24 is reproduced on seasons (solstices and equinoxes). The solar cycle 23 and 24 appear to be two magnetically opposite solar cycles regardless the time scales.

Photometric and Statistical Analysis of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) for the Peak of Solar Cycle 24

The major solar energetic particle events for the peak of solar cycle (24) for years (2012-2015) are analyzed by using the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons (ERNE) detectors and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on board SOHO. It is found that the number of events which satisfies the required condition was 82 events. LASCO give information about Central Position Angle (CPA), Angular Width (AW), the speed of associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their basic features which cataloged in a data base SOHO/LASCO. The logarithmic intensity-time profile of SEP for the peak of solar cycle (24) was provided by ERNE, and from this profile the injection time, width, speed and onset time were estimated. All results that arise from these photometric analysis were statistically analyzed by using the statistical program SPSS (version 19). It have been concluded that 90% of these events were halo (360°) CPA, 1% of North West, 4% South West and 2% North East and South East, as well as it was found that 39% gradual events and 29% impulsive events while 32% were not clear events, and also the acceleration of the energetic particle is not only in the interplanetary but also in the location of the event. We found from the statistical analysis for these events that the acceleration is inversely proportional to speed and the relationship between them is not relevant and also the speed increase in two regions, from year 2012 and 2014. This confirms that the peak of solar cycle (24) really is double peak. All these investigations were employed as data base for the space agencies to protect the solar wind.

TEC Variability during Fluctuating Events at Koudougou Station during Solar Cycle 24

This paper deals with TEC variability during fluctuating geomagnetic events (FE) during solar cycle 24 at Koudougou station (lat: 12o15'N;Geo long: -2o20'E). The study was done by comparing TEC variations during FE days with those of quiet days (QA). Comparison was made taking into account solar phases’ and seasons’ influences. FE’s and QA’s TEC curves are characterized by dome profiles. All graphs show two troughs, one in the morning (0500 LT) and the second in the evening (around 2000 LT) and a peak around 1400 LT during all solar phases and winter months and around 1500 LT for the remaining seasons. Both troughs are caused by the decrease of the photo ionization and an increase of the recombination phenomena, as well for FE as for QA periods. FE cause positive storms during all solar phases as well as during seasons and some negative storms during spring and summer months and minimum and maximum solar phases.

Anomalous pattern of ocean heat content during different phases of the solar cycle in the tropical Pacific

Solar radiation is a forcing of the climate system with a quasi-11-year period.As a quasi-period forcing,the influence of the phase of the solar cycle on the ocean system is an interesting topic of study.In this paper,the authors investigate a particular feature,the ocean heat content（OHC）anomaly,in different phases of the total solar irradiance（TSI） cycle.The results show that almost opposite spatial patterns appear in the tropical Pacific during the ascending and declining phases of the TSI cycle.Further analysis reveals the presence of the quasi-decadal（11-year） solar signal in the SST,OHC and surface zonal wind anomaly field over the tropical Pacific with a high level of statistical confidence（95%）.It is noted that the maximum centers of the ocean temperature anomaly are trapped in the upper ocean above the main pycnocline,in which the variations of OHC are related closely with zonal wind and ocean currents.

Impacts of the Diurnal Cycle of Solar Radiation on Spiral Rainbands

Based on idealized numerical simulations, the impacts of the diurnal cycle of solar radiation on the diurnal variation of outer rainbands in a tropical cyclone are examined. It is found that cold pools associated with precipitation-driven downdrafts are essential for the growth and propagation of spiral rainbands. The downdrafts result in surface outflows, which act as a lifting mechanism to trigger the convection cell along the leading edge of the cold pools. The diurnal cycle of solar radiation may modulate the diurnal behavior of the spiral rainbands. In the daytime, shortwave radiation will suppress the outer convection and thus weaken the cold pools. Meanwhile, the limited cold pool activity leads to a strong modification of the moisture field, which in turn inhibits further convection development.

Influences of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

This paper inspects possible influence of solar cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. We also discussed the mechanism that would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-2010).The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earth-quakes and the solar activity. It was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima. The calculations showed that events increasing during solar maxima most in the Pacific, South America or Arabian until 1900. Since there were few records during these three centuries we needed addi-tional analysis on modern data. We took the last four solar cycles events (1950-2010) and made similar calculations. The results agreed with the former calculations. It might be that the mecha-nism for the Sun-Earth connection relies on the solar wind speed. In both records (1600-1900) and (1950-2010) the results showed a significant increase in earthquakes events in some of the tectonic plates linked to solar maxima. The So-lar wind energy striking the Earth’s magneto-sphere affects the entire environment because the pressure on the region increases and the magnetosphere shrinks sometimes four Earth’s radii. This sudden compression causes earth-quakes in specific plates. During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different pattern according to the geological feature on earth’s surface less frequently. Solar driven events include coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal holes, which are at a maximum during the descending phase of solar activity. The tectonic are important because there is he-terogeneity in the crust and the tectonic stress depends on each region. The geo-effectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth and for the CMEs an additional factor is their velocity. The influence of these solar events could be detected from electromagnetic varia-tions on the ground prior the earthquakes. The goal in this research was to show the solar events influenced the earthquakes and seis-mologic events following some special display and also how the Sun’s activity played to make earthquakes increase. This paper discussed details of this mechanism, calculations and as-sociated factors.

Variability of the Critical Frequency foF2 for Equatorial Regions during Solar Cycle’s Minima and Maxima at Ouagadougou and Manila Stations

In this paper we report on the foF2 variabilities for two equatorial regions (Ouagadougou: Lat. 12.4°N;Long. 358.5°E, Dip. 1.43°S;and Manila: Lat. 14°36'15.12''N;Long. 120°58'55.92''E;Dip. 0.6°S) during solar cycles 20 and 21 minima and maxima phases. Many previous works have argued on the diurnal and seasonal variation of foF2 for different solar events conditions for latitudinal position. But there are few investigations for Africa equatorial region longitudinal variation. The present paper’s goal is to outline possible similarity in foF2 behavior between variations for better understanding of physical process lead to some observed phenomenon in Asia-Africa equatorial sector. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the two equatorial ionosonde stations have been used for the present comparative study. The results show significant similarity between the critical frequency (foF2) seasonal variations over the time intervals 1976-1996. During day-time measured data from Manila station are higher than those from Ouagadougou station. That may lie in that Manila is closer to equatorial ionization crest region. During solar minimum phase, the longitudinal variation of foF2 shows two crossing points (11:00 UT and 22:00 UT) between the foF2 profiles form the two stations for all seasons regardless of the solar cycle. However during intense solar activity condition, the number of crossing-point between measured data from Manila and Ouagadougou stations varies by seasons and solar cycle. This phenomenon may be due to the compilations of severe activities (storms, coronal mass ejection, heliosheet fluctuations) during the solar maximum phases.

Synthesis and application of TiO_2 single-crystal nanorod arrays grown by multicycle hydrothermal for dye-sensitized solar cells

TiO2 is a wide band gap semiconductor with important applications in photovoltaic cells. Vertically aligned Tit2 nanorod arrays （NRs） are grown on the fluorine-doped tin oxide （FTO） substrates by a multicycle hydrothermal synthesis process. The samples are characterized by X-ray diffraction （XRD）, scanning electron microscopy （SEM）, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy （HRTEM）, and selected-area electron diffraction （SAED）. It is found that dye-sensitized solar cells （DSSCs） assembled by the as-prepared Tit2 single-crystal NRs exhibit different trends under the condition of different nucleation and growth concentrations. Optimum cell performance is obtained with high nucleation concentration and low growth cycle concentration. The efficiency enhancement is mainly attributed to the improved specific surface area of the nanorod.

论太阳轨道运动不绕过太阳系质心的准2400年周期成因

K指数越大表明行星系统在某一径向方向会合的程度越大.K指数极值标定的太阳轨道运动半径的变化具有凸显的准20 a、179 a、2400 a周期嵌套关系.随时间尺度的增大,K指数极大值不但呈现出显著的准2400 a周期,而且太阳系质心在太阳本体内外持续的时间长度的变化也具有准2400 a周期.这其中隐含太阳轨道运动不绕过太阳系质心的准2400 a周期特殊规律.本文以木星和太阳连线为基准方向,创建了行星会合向量指数K.K向量指数图像清晰地呈现出由13~14个准179 a包络线周期(其中3~4个周期谷值出现K<0)构成的太阳轨道运动不绕过太阳系质心的准2400a周期.这一发现为科学辨识太阳轨道运动特征的复杂性又向前推进一步.

Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data

It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.

Effects of solar radiation modification on the ocean carbon cycle:An earth system modeling study

Solar radiation modification(SRM,also termed as geoengineering)has been proposed as a potential option to counteract anthropogenic warming.The underlying idea of SRM is to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the atmosphere and surface,thus offsetting some amount of global warming.Here,the authors use an Earth system model to investigate the impact of SRM on the global carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry.The authors simulate the temporal evolution of global climate and the carbon cycle from the pre-industrial period to the end of this century under three scenarios:the RCP4.5 CO_(2) emission pathway,the RCP8.5 CO_(2) emission pathway,and the RCP8.5 CO_(2) emission pathway with the implementation of SRM to maintain the global mean surface temperature at the level of RCP4.5.The simulations show that SRM,by altering global climate,also affects the global carbon cycle.Compared to the RCP8.5 simulation without SRM,by the year 2100,SRM reduces atmospheric CO_(2) by 65 ppm mainly as a result of increased CO_(2) uptake by the terrestrial biosphere.However,SRM-induced change in atmospheric CO_(2) and climate has a small effect in mitigating ocean acidification.By the year 2100,relative to RCP8.5,SRM causes a decrease in surface ocean hydrogen ion concentration([H^(+)])by 6% and attenuates the seasonal amplitude of[H^(+)]by about 10%.The simulations also show that SRM has a small effect on globally integrated ocean net primary productivity relative to the high-CO_(2) simulation without SRM.This study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of the effects of SRM on both the physical climate and the global carbon cycle.