The Dependence between Solar Flare Emergence and the Average Background Solar X-Ray Flux Emission

Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.

The energetic relationship among geoeffective solar flares, associated CMEs and SEPs

Major solar eruptions （flares, coronal mass ejections （CMEs） and solar energetic particles （SEPs）） strongly influence geospace and space weather. Currently, the mechanism of their influence on space weather is not well understood and requires a detailed study of the energetic relationship among these eruptive phenomena. From this perspective, we investigate 30 flares （observed by RHESSI）, followed by weak to strong geomagnetic storms. Spectral analysis of these flares suggests a new power-law relationship （r - 0.79） between the hard X-ray （HXR） spectral index （before flarepeak） and linear speed of the associated CME observed by LASCO/SOHO. For 12 flares which were followed by SEP enhancement near Earth, HXR and SEP spectral analysis reveals a new scaling law （r - 0.9） between the hardest X-ray flare spectrum and the hardest SEP spectrum. Furthermore, a strong correlation is obtained between the linear speed of the CME and the hardest spectrum of the corresponding SEP event （r - 0.96）. We propose that the potentially geoeffective flare and associated CME and SEP are well-connected through a possible feedback mechanism, and should be regarded within the framework of a solar eruption. Owing to their space weather effects, these new results will help improve our current understanding of the Sun-Earth relationship, which is a major goal of research programs in heliophysics.

WITHDRAWN: High-Resolution Radiometer for Remote Sensing of Solar Flare Activity from Low Earth Orbit Satellites

This article has been withdrawn at the request of the author(s) and/or editor. The Publisher apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause.

The Effect of Solar Activity on the Annual Precipitation in the Beijing Area

Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.

Total Solar Flux Intensity at 11.2 GHz as an Indicator of Solar Activity and Cyclicity

In this paper we present an overview of solar radio observations at 11.2 GHz on Mets?hovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during the solar cycles 23 and 24 (2001-2013) both in solar maxima and minimum. In total, 180 solar radio bursts, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. We compare our data series with other similar data sets. A good correlation can be found between the data series. It is concluded that one can conduct scientifically significant solar radio observations with a low cost instrument as the one presented in this paper.

Analyzing Dominant 13.5 and 27 day Periods of Solar Terrestrial Interaction:A New Insight into Solar Cycle Activities

Our analysis presents an explanation of the Sun–Earth coupling mechanism during declining phase of a solar cycle,and how the dominant 13.5 and 27 day periods play roles in the coupling mechanism which led to intense terrestrial magnetic storms during this declining phase compared to the rising phase of a solar cycle.Moreover,it is observed that while the 27 day period gets strongly modulated in the rising phase,the 13.5 day period modulation is more prominent during the declining phase.It is suggested that out of the 27 and 13.5 day periods of Sun–Earth interaction,the preferred period of modulation happens to be the one which is more dominant for the less random or quieter system participating in the coupling.It is reported for the first time that the 13.5 day period is more prominent in the Sun–Earth interaction during the declining phase of a solar cycle,as it is the most dominant period of Earth's magnetic system,which happens to be more persistent as a dynamical system and hence quieter or more receptive than the Sun.

Multi-wavelength study of energetic processes during solar flare occurrence

This paper is an attempt to understand the physical processes occurring in different layers of the solar atmosphere during a solar flare.For a complete understanding of the flare,we must analyze multiwavelength datasets,as emission at different wavelengths originates from different layers in the solar atmosphere.Also,flares are transient and localized events observed to occur at all longitudes.With these considerations,we have carried out multi-wavelength analysis of two representative flare events.One event occurred close to the center of the solar disk and the other occurred close to the limb.In the former case,we examine emission from the lower layers of the solar atmosphere.Therefore the chromosphere,transition region and also photospheric magnetogram can be analyzed.On the other hand,in the near-limb event,coronal features can be clearly examined.In this paper,the first event studied is the M1.1 class flare from the active region NOAA 10649 located at S10 E14 and the second event is the M1.4 class flare from the active region 10713 located at S12 W90.In both cases,we have acquired excellent multi-wavelength data sets.The observations from multi-instrumental data clearly demonstrate that flares occur in the vicinity of sunspots.These are regions of strong magnetic field with mixed polarity.

Cosmic Ray Associated with Coronal Index and Solar Flare Index during Solar Cycle 22 - 23

We study the relation between monthly average counting rates of the cosmic ray intensity (CRI) observed at Moscow Neutron Monitoring Station, solar flare index (SFI) and coronal index during the solar cycles 22 and 23, for the period 1986-2008. The long-term behaviour of various solar activity parameters: sunspot numbers (SSN), solar flare index (Hα flare index), coronal index (CI) in relation to the duration of solar cycles 22 and 23 is examined. We find that the correlation coefficient of CRI with the coronal index as well as Hα flare index is relatively large anti-correlation during solar cycle 22. However, the monthly mean values of sunspot number, Hα flare index, and coronal index are well positively correlated with each other. We have analyzed the statistical analysis of the above parameters using of linear model and second order polynomial fits model.

Study of Relation between Torrential Rain Days in Fuxin and Sunspot Cycle

The quasi 11-year cycle of sunspot activities and torrential rain days in Fuxin during 1951-2005 were studied.As was shown in the results,the relative number of sunspots and the torrential rain days in the sunspot cycle of trough value were significantly related with a correlation coefficient of 0.842.At the same time,the correlation coefficient between torrential rain days in Fuxin and the relative number of sunspots of certain year within the sunspot cycle of trough value reached 0.737.It was clear that the torrential rain days in Fuxin were closely related with solar activity.The conclusion would provide the favorable climate background and basis for the study of regularity of rainstorm outbreak,monitoring and forecasting of torrential rain and regularity of agricultural drought and flood.

Solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms

We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms （Dst ≤ -100 nT）, including intense storms at the level of -200 nT〈 Dst ≤ -100 nT, great storms at -300 nT〈 Dst ≤-200 nT, and super storms at Dst ≤ -300 nT, which occurred during the period of 1957-2006, based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Statistics show that the majority （82%） of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst≤ -100 nT that occurred in the study pe- riod were intense geomagnetic storms, with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms. It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle, and about 73% in the descending one. Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms, 79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak, or in the three years after it. The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred, during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years af- ter it, is investigated. Finally, the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.

Testing the effect of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic storm indices on Galactic cosmic ray flux variation with automatically-selected Forbush decreases

Forbush decrease(FD),discovered by Scott E.Forbush about 80 years ago,is referred to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in Galactic cosmic ray(GCR)flux,presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field(IMF).It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appears to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships.The method of selection and validation of FD events is very important to cosmic ray(CR)scientists.We have deployed new computer software to determine the amplitude and timing of FDs from daily-averaged CR data at Oulu Neutron Monitor station.The code selected 230 FDs between 1998 and 2002.In an attempt to validate the new FD automated catalog,the relationship between the amplitude of FDs,and IMF,solar wind speed(SWS)and geomagnetic storm indices(Dst,kp,ap)is tested here.A two-dimensional regression analysis indicates significant linear relationship between large FDs(CR(%)≤-3)and solar wind data and geomagnetic storm indices in the present sample.The implications of the relationship among these parameters are discussed.

日地L5太阳探测工程概述

南京大学联合中国气象局、上海航天技术研究院等单位共同建议的日地L5太阳探测工程——“羲和二号”,将在国际上首次发射一颗人造探测器至日地系统第5个拉格朗日点,通过精测矢量磁场、揭示三维爆发和精准预警预报,解答“活动区磁场的产生演化及其与太阳爆发的物理联系”和“太阳爆发的传播规律及其与灾害性空间天气的关系”这2个太阳物理和空间天气领域亟待解决的重大科学和应用问题。本文重点阐述“羲和二号”的科学与应用目标,简要介绍其科学载荷和初步方案。联合日地连线方向上的太阳探测,“羲和二号”的实施将开启我国太阳立体探测时代,拓展人类对太阳爆发机制的理解,为空间天气预警预报带来革命性突破。

The correlation between expansion speed and magnetic field in solar flare ribbons

In this paper, we study the correlation between the expansion speed of two-ribbon flares and the magnetic field measured in the ribbon location, and compare such correlation for two events with different magnetic configurations. These two events are: an M1.0 flare in the quiet sun on September 12, 2000 and an X2.3 flare in Active Region NOAA 9415 on April 10, 2001. The magnetic configuration of the M1.0 flare is simple, while that of X2.3 event is complex. We have derived a power-law correlation between the ribbon expansion speed (V r) and the longitudinal magnetic field (Bz) with an empirical relationship V r = A×Bz-δ, where A is a constant and δ is the index of the power-law correlation. We have found that δ for the M1.0 flare in the simple magnetic configuration is larger than that for the X2.3 flare in the complex magnetic configuration.

恒星超级耀斑的研究进展

太阳耀斑是太阳系内最剧烈能量释放现象之一,其在数十分钟之内可以释放高达1025 J的能量。随着观测技术的发展,在恒星上也观测到类似的耀发事件,其典型强度是太阳耀斑的10∼10^(4)倍,被称为超级耀斑。研究恒星超级耀斑及其爆发机制,不仅在理解恒星内部结构、演化与磁场活动性质等方面起到重要的作用,而且对探究太阳系外行星宜居性和系外生命具有重要意义。首先扼要介绍了太阳耀斑及其相关磁活动现象、恒星磁场以及恒星超级耀斑;然后从恒星超级耀斑的筛选、能量计算、恒星黑子、耀斑参数与恒星参数的统计关系等方面叙述了对恒星超级耀斑的探测手段以及研究成果,并与太阳耀斑理论与相关物理过程进行对比,以探讨两者之间的相似性以及与现有理论的联系;最后进行了总结,并对将来可能开展的相关工作进行展望。

EFFECTS OF SOLAR FLARE ON THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE

The SME satellite data of solar UV radiation and mesospheric ozone during solar flare in 1982 are analyzed.The results show that the Ha line index used in the solar flare classification is not a proper parameter for studying the effects of solar activity on the photochemical process in the middle atmosphere.

JJI甚低频台站信号对太阳耀斑事件的响应特性

太阳耀斑发生时,日地空间的X射线通量会随之增大,进而影响到地球电离层的电子密度分布,导致地球-电离层波导状态发生改变,因此接收到的甚低频(VLF,Very Low Frequency)信号会表现出对应的扰动现象.2017年9月8日,位于湖北省内武汉和随州两站点的VLF接收机分别监测到与X射线太阳耀斑相关的来自日本宫崎县(130°49′E,32°04′N)的JJI甚低频台站信号(22.2 kHz)的振幅异常事件.分析当日的数据发现JJI信号的振幅对不同的太阳耀斑出现不同的响应类型,而且对于同一个耀斑,两地的信号响应类型不尽相同.通过统计2017—2019年间与太阳耀斑相关的JJI信号振幅扰动事件,发现两接收站点的JJI信号响应类型都与耀斑强度及其发生时间存在一定的关系,且呈现出四种响应类型,即两次上升下降型、先上升后下降型、下降型和上升型,但是四种响应类型的事件占比不同.拟合结果表明信号的扰动幅度与X射线通量的积分成正相关,但是两站点的线性拟合斜率存在差异.JJI信号到武汉和随州均属于近似沿纬度方向的短距离传播,且两接收站点相距较近,因此两传播路径大致相似.研究两路径上JJI信号对太阳耀斑响应的差异性有助于理解VLF信号的传播以及探索其在太阳活动监测方面的应用.

太阳活动周期及其数学描述

概述和分析了太阳活动周期的研究进展,太阳活动呈现非常复杂的周期性,其周期性范围从几天至上百年,11年周期意义比较大,也比较明显;几天至几个月的周期性可能发生在太阳活动高峰期,155天或更短的周期存在,对中期预报有帮助;几年左右的周期对气象学的研究有作用;"蒙德极小期"是否存在至今还没有定论。对太阳活动11年周期的数学描述虽然很多,从效果上看,一般情况下,参数较多的函数计算量很大,误差相对较小;参数少的函数相比参数多的函数误差大,但计算量小;目前还没有一个非常理想的函数,能够对每个活动周都能很好的描述且误差很小。

关于常α线性无力场的边界积分表示公式

本文基于颜毅华所给太阳磁场的边界积分表示式,提出了一个新的直接边界积分公式,该公式仅仅由边界上的已知磁场值确定空间点的磁场值,且用新的公式计算磁场具有计算速度快、精度高的显著优点。此外,我们还对颜所提模型的渐近性条件进行了探讨,以例予说明该模型的渐近性条件仅是充分的。

1996-2008年期间活动区与耀斑活动的特征分析

在1996—2008年期间,可见日面共出现3067个活动区,其中活动区面积S满足10μh≤S≤90μh(μh为太阳半球面积的百万分之一)的活动区数量占活动区总数的58.52%,100μh≤S≤490μh的活动区数量占活动区总数的31.43%,而S≥500μh的活动区数量仅约占活动区总数的6%,S≥1000μh的活动区数量仅约占活动区总数的1%,面积为0的活动区约占活动区总数的4%.1996—2008年期间,除面积低于50μh的活动区外,不同面积活动区的数量占该年活动区总数比例的最大值通常都在太阳活动峰年之后,即相对太阳黑子数平滑月均值都有一定的延迟.在1997—2008年期间,至少能够产生一个A级耀斑的活动区数量为1408个,而在此期间,共产生了7706个C级耀斑、1141个M级耀斑和110个X级耀斑.C级耀斑在1~8A波段流量的积分值为22.711 J·m^(-2),M级耀斑在1~8 A波段流量的积分值为29.443 J·m^(-2),X级耀斑在1~8 A波段流量的积分值为36.178 J·m^(-2).第23太阳活动周期间,南半球的耀斑活动比北半球强.

1996—2002年太阳耀斑的统计分析

分析了1996—2002年南北半球的太阳黑子相对数和南北半球太阳X射线耀斑级别(简称Imp)≥M1.0的太阳X射线耀斑的特征和不对称性.分析结果表明,南北半球的太阳耀斑活动的程度交替上升,在2001年7月以前北半球的太阳耀斑活动强于南半球, 2001年7月开始耀斑活动逐渐以南半球为主.本文还逐月分析了1996—2001年南北半球的耀斑指数. 2000年7月为第23周太阳指数最大的一个月、与第23周太阳黑子相对数最大月均值吻合.