期刊文献+
共找到19篇文章
< 1 >
每页显示 20 50 100
Solar Activity during the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24
1
作者 Aradhna Sharma S. R. Verma 《International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics》 2013年第3期212-216,共5页
Solar activity refers to any natural phenomenon occurring on the sun such as sunspots, solar flare and coronal mass ejection etc. Such phenomena have their roots deep inside the sun, where the dynamo mechanism operate... Solar activity refers to any natural phenomenon occurring on the sun such as sunspots, solar flare and coronal mass ejection etc. Such phenomena have their roots deep inside the sun, where the dynamo mechanism operates and fluid motions occur in a turbulent way. It is mainly driven by the variability of the sun’s magnetic field. The present paper studies the relation between various solar features during January 2009 to December 2011. A good correlation between various parameters indicates similar origin. 展开更多
关键词 solar activity sunspot Number solar Radio Emission Flux CORONAL Mass Ejections solar x-ray BACKGROUND
下载PDF
The Dependence between Solar Flare Emergence and the Average Background Solar X-Ray Flux Emission
2
作者 Yael Peleg Rami Babayew Itzhak Orion 《International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics》 2024年第3期149-161,共13页
Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accura... Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised. 展开更多
关键词 Space Weather solar Flare solar activity sunspotS solar cycle
下载PDF
Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data 被引量:2
3
作者 Qiang Li Miao Wan +2 位作者 Shu-Guang Zeng Sheng Zheng Lin-Hua Deng 《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第7期290-298,共9页
It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the sol... It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value. 展开更多
关键词 Sun:activity Sun:solar cycle prediction Sun:sunspot area Method:deep neural network
下载PDF
Total Solar Flux Intensity at 11.2 GHz as an Indicator of Solar Activity and Cyclicity
4
作者 Juha Kallunki Minttu Uunila 《International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics》 2014年第3期437-444,共8页
In this paper we present an overview of solar radio observations at 11.2 GHz on Mets?hovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during the solar cycles 23 and 24 (2001-2013) both in solar maxima and minimum.... In this paper we present an overview of solar radio observations at 11.2 GHz on Mets?hovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during the solar cycles 23 and 24 (2001-2013) both in solar maxima and minimum. In total, 180 solar radio bursts, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. We compare our data series with other similar data sets. A good correlation can be found between the data series. It is concluded that one can conduct scientifically significant solar radio observations with a low cost instrument as the one presented in this paper. 展开更多
关键词 solar activity solar FLARE solar cycle solar Radio burst
下载PDF
The Additional Criterion for the Determination of the Time of Minimum of a Solar Cycle
5
作者 Habibullo I. Abdussamatov 《Journal of Electromagnetic Analysis and Applications》 2010年第3期128-132,共5页
The sunspot number is becoming an increasingly insufficiently reliable parameter for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the prolonged and deep minimum of the 23rd solar cycle. Moreover, t... The sunspot number is becoming an increasingly insufficiently reliable parameter for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the prolonged and deep minimum of the 23rd solar cycle. Moreover, the sunspot number does not quantitatively reflect physical processes and is a practically conventional qualitative “noisy” parameter. Introduction of an additional criterion for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle is becoming particularly topical due to the upcoming common descent of the level of the 2-secular cycle, when the amplitude of sunspot activity variation will sequentially decrease during several subsequent cycles (after the 23rd cycle). We propose the adoption of the smoothed minimal level of the total solar irradiance (TSI) as an additional physically justified criterion for the determination of the time of minimum of a solar cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity. The minimal level of the monthly average values of the TSI smoothed for 13 months when the last two of its values exceed the preceding value at the point of minimum will additionally indicate the time of minimum of a cycle. The additional criterion has been successfully used for the determination of the time of minima of the preceding 21st and 22nd cycles. 展开更多
关键词 SUN solar cycle solar cycle Minimum TSI sunspot activity
下载PDF
Periodicity of sunspot activity in the modern solar cycles 被引量:7
6
作者 LIKejun SUTongwei LIANGHongfei 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2004年第21期2247-2252,共6页
Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper, periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly m... Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper, periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly mean val- ues of the three indices in the time interval of May 1874 to May 2004 by use of the wavelet transform. Their global power spectra and local power spectra are given while the statistical tests of these spectra are taken into account. The main results are (1) the local wavelet power spectrum of the sunspot number seems like that of the sunspot area, indicat- ing that the periodicity of the both indices is similar. The local power spectrum of the sunspot unit area resembles the local power spectra of the previous two indices, but looks more complicated. (2) the possible periods in sunspot activity are about 10.6 (or 10.9 years for the sunspot unit area), 31, and 42 years, and the period of about 10.6 years is statisti- cally significant in the considered time. For the periods of about 31 and 42 years, their power peaks are under the 95% confidence level line but over the mean red-noise spectral line, and for the other rest periods, their power peaks are even under the mean red-noise spectral line, which are sta- tistically insignificant. (3) the local power of the three periods is higher in the late stage than in the early stage of the con- sidered time. (4) the period characteristics of the three indi- ces, shown in the global power spectra and the local power spectra, are similar but there is difference in detail. 展开更多
关键词 太阳黑子数 太阳活动周期 太阳黑子区域 能谱
原文传递
Radio Signatures of Sunspot NOAA 12192
7
作者 Minttu Uunila Juha Kallunki 《International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics》 2014年第4期649-655,共7页
In this paper, we present an overview of radio signatures of sunspot NOAA 12192 measured with various instruments with frequencies of 37 GHz, 11.2 GHz and 200 - 400 MHz at Aalto University Metsahovi Radio Observatory ... In this paper, we present an overview of radio signatures of sunspot NOAA 12192 measured with various instruments with frequencies of 37 GHz, 11.2 GHz and 200 - 400 MHz at Aalto University Metsahovi Radio Observatory (MRO). The data were observed during October 20 - 29, 2014. In total, 12 solar radio bursts at 11.2 GHz and 8 at 200 - 400 MHz, with varying intensities and properties, were observed. Radio brightening was captured in several solar radio maps. NOAA 12192 is the largest observed sunspot during solar cycle 24. We show that this exceptional radio brightening belongs to the strongest category including less than 5% of radio brightenings ever measured at MRO. 展开更多
关键词 solar activity solar FLARE solar cycle solar RADIO burst
下载PDF
基于小波变换的郑州降雨量与太阳黑子活动关系分析 被引量:5
8
作者 祁诗阳 沈宸 +2 位作者 刘小标 张梦娇 马新明 《现代地质》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期184-196,共13页
为探究太阳黑子活动与地区降雨量的关联性,采用连续小波变换方法,分析了1980年以来郑州地区(新郑站点)降雨量和太阳黑子数的数据变化,并对不同时段两者的相关性进行研究;进一步对两者进行交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析,并根据两者关系... 为探究太阳黑子活动与地区降雨量的关联性,采用连续小波变换方法,分析了1980年以来郑州地区(新郑站点)降雨量和太阳黑子数的数据变化,并对不同时段两者的相关性进行研究;进一步对两者进行交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析,并根据两者关系通过太阳黑子数观测值对降雨量进行预测。结果表明:(1)不同时段降雨量和太阳黑子数的相关性存在正负差异的现象。降雨量的第一主周期尺度是21 a,在此主周期尺度下得到14 a主周期;太阳黑子数的第一主周期尺度是16 a,在此主周期尺度下得到11 a主周期(与经验值相符)。降雨量与太阳黑子数的主周期相差了3 a,因此导致两者的相关性在不同时段存在正负差异。(2)降雨量与太阳黑子数在1992—2008年的8~12 a时间尺度上关联性显著,且降雨量比太阳黑子数存在规律性的时间滞后,两者在2~4 a和7~10 a的时间尺度上关联性较好;降雨量比太阳黑子数分别在1991—2004年和2006—2013年这两个时间段上呈现规律性的滞后,两者在其他时间段的各时间尺度上关联性不明显。(3)根据延迟年数经验公式,由太阳黑子数观测值对降雨量进行预测,最近的降雨量峰年在2022年附近,与2021年郑州“7·20”特大暴雨的发生时间相近,而下一个降雨量极小年在2028年前后,且随着时间的推移极端旱涝情况可能会愈加严重。 展开更多
关键词 小波变换 降雨量 太阳黑子 太阳活动周期
下载PDF
Starspots, stellar cycles and stellar flares: Lessons from solar dynamo models 被引量:3
9
作者 Amab Rai Choudhuri 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第1期1-16,共16页
In this review, we discuss whether the present solar dynamo models can be extrapolated to explain various aspects of stellar activity. We begin with a summary of the following kinds of data for solar-like stars:(i) da... In this review, we discuss whether the present solar dynamo models can be extrapolated to explain various aspects of stellar activity. We begin with a summary of the following kinds of data for solar-like stars:(i) data pertaining to stellar cycles from Ca H/K emission over many years;(ii) X-ray data indicating hot coronal activity;(iii) starspot data(especially about giant polar spots); and(iv) data pertaining to stellar superflares. Then we describe the current status of solar dynamo modelling—giving an introduction to the flux transport dynamo model, the currently favoured model for the solar cycle. While an extrapolation of this model to solar-like stars can explain some aspects of observational data, some other aspects of the data still remain to be theoretically explained. It is not clear right now whether we need a different kind of dynamo mechanism for stars having giant starspots or producing very strong superflares. 展开更多
关键词 sunspotS solar dynamo solar cycle stellar dynamo stellar activity
原文传递
Normalization of sunspot cycles and eigen mode analysis
10
作者 徐文耀 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 2002年第z1期4-11,共8页
The smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of the previous 22 complete sunspot cycles are normalized in time domain, and then an eigen mode analysis is carried out to draw the principle factors (or components) in the cycles... The smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of the previous 22 complete sunspot cycles are normalized in time domain, and then an eigen mode analysis is carried out to draw the principle factors (or components) in the cycles. The results show that the main characteristics of the solar cycles can be described fairly well by the first 5 eigen modes. The obtained eigen modes are used to predict the declining phase of cycle 23 on the basis of the data prior to its maximum. The prediction indicates that cycle 23 will last for 127 months to December 2006, with the minimum of 6.2. 展开更多
关键词 sunspot solar cycle EIGEN mode analysis prediction of solar activity.
原文传递
青海德令哈地区近400年来的降水量变化与太阳活动 被引量:41
11
作者 黄磊 邵雪梅 《第四纪研究》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第2期184-192,共9页
使用多种数学统计方法分析了德令哈地区降水量变化与太阳活动之间的关系,发现近 400年来降水量的长期变化与太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和太阳黑子周期上升支长度之间存在着较好的反相关关系,当SCL偏短、太阳黑子周期上升支长度偏短时,太阳... 使用多种数学统计方法分析了德令哈地区降水量变化与太阳活动之间的关系,发现近 400年来降水量的长期变化与太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和太阳黑子周期上升支长度之间存在着较好的反相关关系,当SCL偏短、太阳黑子周期上升支长度偏短时,太阳活动偏强,德令哈地区降水量偏多,反之偏少。功率谱和小波分析发现降水量序列中存在着与太阳活动的多种周期相一致的周期,对降水量与太阳活动在不同时间尺度上周期变化之间的关系进行了详细分析。交叉小波分析发现太阳活动主要在百年左右尺度的周期变化上影响德令哈地区降水量的长期变化,太阳活动周期变化的信号越强,对降水量变化的影响越大。文章最后对太阳活动影响德令哈地区降水量变化的可能机制进行了探讨。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 太阳活动 太阳黑子周期长度
下载PDF
太阳22周峰年若干特点 被引量:1
12
作者 曹莹 李维宝 《云南天文台台刊》 CSCD 1995年第2期19-25,共7页
本文讨论了第22太阳活动周的下列重要特点:1.呈现双峰,并在双峰期的槽中又突起孤立的单峰。2.黑子面积峰值滞后相对数峰值的仅占16.67%;黑子面积与相对数同步占58.33%;二者峰值不能对应占25%。3.1986年... 本文讨论了第22太阳活动周的下列重要特点:1.呈现双峰,并在双峰期的槽中又突起孤立的单峰。2.黑子面积峰值滞后相对数峰值的仅占16.67%;黑子面积与相对数同步占58.33%;二者峰值不能对应占25%。3.1986年10月以后,纬度≥30°的有半影的黑子群共出现87群;延迟在峰年期间出现的有53群,占60.92%;对应有M级以上X射线爆发的活动区18个,占20.69%。这一现象与“蝴蝶图”规律不符。 展开更多
关键词 太阳活动周 黑子 X射线爆发 双峰期
下载PDF
21、22、23太阳活动周上升期太阳黑子资料的分析 被引量:1
13
作者 吴琴娣 宋谊 《紫金山天文台台刊》 北大核心 1999年第2期151-153,共3页
本文分析了第21 、22 、23 太阳活动周的上升期23 个月( 月均值) 太阳黑子资料。结果表明:太阳黑子相对数和面积南北不对称。23 周的太阳黑子相对数和面积(23 个月的平均) 高于22 周,但低于21 周。我们估计第23... 本文分析了第21 、22 、23 太阳活动周的上升期23 个月( 月均值) 太阳黑子资料。结果表明:太阳黑子相对数和面积南北不对称。23 周的太阳黑子相对数和面积(23 个月的平均) 高于22 周,但低于21 周。我们估计第23 周峰年为2000 年3 月或1999 年12 月。 展开更多
关键词 太阳活动周 太阳黑子 活动峰年 太阳活动
下载PDF
太阳黑子的世纪周期及对24、25活动周的预报 被引量:3
14
作者 褚哲 聂清香 张军 《天文学进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第2期179-187,共9页
太阳活动除了具有公认的11a周期以外,还存在着一个80~120 a变化的世纪周期,也称为Gleissberg周期。使用傅里叶变换和小波分析的方法,分析了1700~2008年的年均黑子数世纪周期的变化规律。得到结果:在太阳活动世纪周期的低谷期,所对应1... 太阳活动除了具有公认的11a周期以外,还存在着一个80~120 a变化的世纪周期,也称为Gleissberg周期。使用傅里叶变换和小波分析的方法,分析了1700~2008年的年均黑子数世纪周期的变化规律。得到结果:在太阳活动世纪周期的低谷期,所对应11 a太阳周的极大年和极小年的黑子数目都比其他太阳周的低。在这300多年里,世纪周期的周期长度也有变化。由世纪周期的变化趋势,预测第24、25太阳活动周将处于世纪周期的低谷期。通过对以前3个世纪周期的谷期黑子数求平均的方法,得到第24、25太阳周极大年年均黑子数为63.6±21.1,极小年的为2.2±2.1。这些结果有助于理解当前太阳活动反常宁静这一现象。 展开更多
关键词 太阳活动周 世纪周期 黑子数 太阳预报
下载PDF
第23至24周太阳质子事件的统计特征 被引量:2
15
作者 白铁男 乐贵明 赵浩峰 《空间科学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2017年第6期649-658,共10页
第23至24太阳活动周(1997-2016年)期间太阳质子事件的强度统计分析表明,1997-2016年期间总共发生了128个太阳质子事件,其中峰值通量范围为10~99 pfu,100~999 pfu,1000~2999 pfu及>3000 pfu的事件分别占55.15%,27.94%,9.56%,7.35%.太... 第23至24太阳活动周(1997-2016年)期间太阳质子事件的强度统计分析表明,1997-2016年期间总共发生了128个太阳质子事件,其中峰值通量范围为10~99 pfu,100~999 pfu,1000~2999 pfu及>3000 pfu的事件分别占55.15%,27.94%,9.56%,7.35%.太阳质子事件的不对称性分析表明,不同强度太阳质子事件东西不对称性的程度不相同,其中1000~2999pfu事件的不对称性最强,而3000pfu以上事件的不对称性最弱.第23周期间,太阳质子事件主要发生在太阳活动周两个峰值之间和最大峰值之后的口时段,而第24周太阳质子事件主要发生在太阳活动周最大峰值之前. 展开更多
关键词 太阳黑子 质子事件 不对称性 太阳活动周
下载PDF
阜新夏季异常降水在太阳活动周期的规律研究 被引量:5
16
作者 马晓刚 李凝 +3 位作者 张旭 赵连伟 李冬梅 李辑 《灾害学》 CSCD 2017年第3期107-111,共5页
利用1951-2015年太阳黑子相对数和阜新夏季降水,分析研究了基于太阳活动周期的阜新夏季异常降水规律。结果表明:太阳活动周期内阜新夏季异常降水偏多年略多于夏季降水异常偏少年;夏季异常降水距平百分率极大值为99.5%,极小值为-52.7%;... 利用1951-2015年太阳黑子相对数和阜新夏季降水,分析研究了基于太阳活动周期的阜新夏季异常降水规律。结果表明:太阳活动周期内阜新夏季异常降水偏多年略多于夏季降水异常偏少年;夏季异常降水距平百分率极大值为99.5%,极小值为-52.7%;太阳黑子谷值年周期内阜新夏季降水异常偏多和偏少年发生几率均比太阳黑子峰值年周期内的大;夏季降水异常偏多年最大几率为0.6,异常偏少年最大几率为0.67;太阳黑子峰值年周期内的M、M+1年多连续发生夏季降水异常偏少;太阳黑子谷值年周期内的m-1、m年多连续发生夏季降水异常偏多;太阳黑子峰值年周期内阜新夏季平均降水量的最小值年在M年;太阳黑子谷值年周期内阜新夏季平均降水量的最大值年在m-1年;太阳活动周期内阜新夏季降水量存在2~3年的准周期变化;阜新夏季降水的准对称轴在太阳黑子峰值年(M)、谷值年(m)附近;太阳活动周期内的阜新夏季平均降水量与太阳黑子相对数成反相关;太阳黑子峰值年后少雨向多雨转折年平均在M+2年;太阳黑子谷值年后多雨向少雨转折年平均在m+3年。 展开更多
关键词 太阳黑子 太阳活动周期 夏季 异常降水 规律 辽宁阜新
下载PDF
A method to predict amplitude and date of maximum sunspot number 被引量:1
17
作者 HAN YanbenBeijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2000年第14期1287-1290,共4页
A method to predict the amplitude and date of the maximum sunspot number is introduced. The regression analysis of the relationship between the variation rate of monthly sunspot numbers in the initial stage of solar c... A method to predict the amplitude and date of the maximum sunspot number is introduced. The regression analysis of the relationship between the variation rate of monthly sunspot numbers in the initial stage of solar cycles and both of the maximum and the time-length of ascending period of the cycle showed that they are closely correlative. In general, the maximum will be larger and the ascending period will be shorter when the rate is larger. The rate of sunspot numbers in the initial 2 years of the 23rd cycle is thus analyzed based on these grounds and the maximum of the cycle is predicted. For the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers, the maximum will be about 139.2 ±18.8 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.31 ±0.42 years, that is to say, the maximum will appear around the spring of the year 2000. For the mean monthly ones, the maximum will be near 170.1±22.9 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.42 ±0.46 years, that is to say, the appearing date of the maximum 展开更多
关键词 solar activity prediction sunspot number 23rd solar cycle.
原文传递
异常的第24太阳活动周——新千年的第一个完整的太阳活动周 被引量:14
18
作者 李可军 冯雯 梁红飞 《中国科学:物理学、力学、天文学》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第10期1293-1301,共9页
介绍自2007年下半年到现在的非常低的太阳活动状况:无黑子活动天数为16太阳活动周以来最多,不排除24周的无黑子天数是现代黑子周内最多的可能;高纬度(>35°)黑子的纬度为12周最低;从2003年11月~2008年9月,较高纬度(>20°... 介绍自2007年下半年到现在的非常低的太阳活动状况:无黑子活动天数为16太阳活动周以来最多,不排除24周的无黑子天数是现代黑子周内最多的可能;高纬度(>35°)黑子的纬度为12周最低;从2003年11月~2008年9月,较高纬度(>20°)每月没有黑子或只有1个黑子,共计持续了58个月,也为12周以来第一次观测到;太阳风速度、太阳风压、10cm电磁波辐射、太阳极区磁场、太阳总光度辐射等参量都为有观测资料以来的最低.对于这种极低太阳活动的现象,介绍了从当前的日震观测给予的解释、也从Gleissberg周期的长尺度、超长太阳活动周期尺度给予了解释.依据目前的观测,我们确定24黑子活动周于2008年11月开始.综合多种经典太阳活动预报方法给出的对24周太阳活动水平的预报,以及美国国家航空航天局和美国国家海洋大气局对24周的未来发展趋势的预报,认为24周太阳活动水平估计比23周将要弱30%左右.异常的24太阳活动周为太阳物理和日地关系物理研究带来机遇. 展开更多
关键词 太阳物理 黑子活动 太阳周 太阳活动
原文传递
第24太阳周将是一个低太阳周? 被引量:5
19
作者 王家龙 《科学通报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第23期3664-3668,共5页
提出了一个简单实用的对太阳黑子数平滑月均值做比较的方法,考虑了国际黑子数的实际计数精度和已有实测数据时间序列特征,利用实测数据与本文推导出的比较黑子数大小的公式,估算出2009年1月至2009年4月太阳黑子数平滑月均值的范围,判断... 提出了一个简单实用的对太阳黑子数平滑月均值做比较的方法,考虑了国际黑子数的实际计数精度和已有实测数据时间序列特征,利用实测数据与本文推导出的比较黑子数大小的公式,估算出2009年1月至2009年4月太阳黑子数平滑月均值的范围,判断出第24周可能起始于2008年12月.然后用我们发展的相似周方法与相似位相概念做出了分别适用于预报第24周上升相的时间长度和极大黑子数值的统计公式,预测出第24周将在2013年9月至2014年5月期间出现平滑月均黑子数为60~80的最高峰,该值远低于第23周的120.8的高峰. 展开更多
关键词 太阳活动周 黑子数 第24太阳周预测
原文传递
上一页 1 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部