Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

The Grad-Shafranov reconstruction in twenty years: 1996–2016

We review and summarize the applications of the Grad-Shafranov(GS) reconstruction technique to space plasma structures in the Earth's magnetosphere and in the interplanetary space. We organize our presentations following the branches of the "academic family tree" rooted on Prof. Bengt U. ? Sonnerup, the inventor of the GS method. Special attentions are paid to validations of the GS reconstruction results via(1) the direct validation by co-spatial in-situ measurements among multiple spacecraft, and(2) indirect validation by implications and interpretations of the physical connection between the structures reconstructed and other related processes. For the latter, the inter-comparison and interconnection between the large-scale magnetic flux ropes(i.e., Magnetic Clouds) in the solar wind and their solar source properties are presented. In addition, we also summarize various GS-type(or-like) reconstruction and an extension of the GS technique to toroidal geometry. In particular,we point to a possible advancement with added complexity of "helical symmetry" and mixed helicity, in the hope of stimulating interest in future development. We close by offering some thoughts on appreciating the scientific merit of GS reconstruction in general.