An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, th...An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.展开更多
During the upward period of solar cycle 23, the imaging riometer at Zhongshan, Antarctica (geomag. lat. 74.5°S) was used to study the solar proton events and the X-ray solar flares which are associated with the a...During the upward period of solar cycle 23, the imaging riometer at Zhongshan, Antarctica (geomag. lat. 74.5°S) was used to study the solar proton events and the X-ray solar flares which are associated with the absorption events. In our study, the relationship between the absorption intensity and X-ray flux is found in a power form which is consistent with the theoretical result. The imaging riometer absorption data at Ny-Alesund, Svalbard reconfirm the above relationship. We also argue that only M-class flares can generate a significant daytime absorption.展开更多
This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the...This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.展开更多
Solar eruptive activities,mainly including solar flares,coronal mass ejections(CME),and solar proton events(SPE),have an important impact on space weather and our technosphere.The short-term solar eruptive activity pr...Solar eruptive activities,mainly including solar flares,coronal mass ejections(CME),and solar proton events(SPE),have an important impact on space weather and our technosphere.The short-term solar eruptive activity prediction is an active field of research in the space weather prediction.Numerical,statistical,and machine learning methods are proposed to build prediction models of the solar eruptive activities.With the development of space-based and ground-based facilities,a large amount of observational data of the Sun is accumulated,and data-driven prediction models of solar eruptive activities have made a significant progress.In this review,we briefly introduce the machine learning algorithms applied in solar eruptive activity prediction,summarize the prediction modeling process,overview the progress made in the field of solar eruptive activity prediction model,and look forward to the possible directions in the future.展开更多
基金supported by the Young Researcher Grant of National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2011CB811406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10733020, 10921303, 11003026 and 11078010)
文摘An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation ofChina (Grant No. 49639160), the major project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KJ951-1-305) and the Oceanic Youth Foundation of State Oceanic Administration (Grant No. 98605).
文摘During the upward period of solar cycle 23, the imaging riometer at Zhongshan, Antarctica (geomag. lat. 74.5°S) was used to study the solar proton events and the X-ray solar flares which are associated with the absorption events. In our study, the relationship between the absorption intensity and X-ray flux is found in a power form which is consistent with the theoretical result. The imaging riometer absorption data at Ny-Alesund, Svalbard reconfirm the above relationship. We also argue that only M-class flares can generate a significant daytime absorption.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10373017 & 5067702)
文摘This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.
基金Science and Technology Facilities Council(STFC,Grant No.ST/M000826/1)National Research Development and Innovation Office(OTKA,Grant No.K142987)Hungary for enabling this research+4 种基金ST/S000518/1,PIA.CE.RI.2020-2022 Linea 2,CESAR 2020-35-HH.0,and UNKP-224-II-ELTE-186 grantsthe support from ISSI-Beijing for their project“Step forward in solar flare and coronal mass ejection(CME)forecasting”supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0560000)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2021YFA1600504)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11873060)。
文摘Solar eruptive activities,mainly including solar flares,coronal mass ejections(CME),and solar proton events(SPE),have an important impact on space weather and our technosphere.The short-term solar eruptive activity prediction is an active field of research in the space weather prediction.Numerical,statistical,and machine learning methods are proposed to build prediction models of the solar eruptive activities.With the development of space-based and ground-based facilities,a large amount of observational data of the Sun is accumulated,and data-driven prediction models of solar eruptive activities have made a significant progress.In this review,we briefly introduce the machine learning algorithms applied in solar eruptive activity prediction,summarize the prediction modeling process,overview the progress made in the field of solar eruptive activity prediction model,and look forward to the possible directions in the future.
