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The Relation among the Solar Activity, the Total Ozone, QBO, NAO, and ENSO by Wavelet-Based Multifractal Analysis
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作者 Fumio Maruyama 《Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics》 2018年第6期1301-1314,共14页
There is an increasing interest in the relation between the solar activity and climate change. As for the solar activity, a fractal property of the sunspot number was studied by many works. In general, a fractal prope... There is an increasing interest in the relation between the solar activity and climate change. As for the solar activity, a fractal property of the sunspot number was studied by many works. In general, a fractal property was observed in the time series of dynamics of complex systems. The purposes of this study are to investigate the relations among the solar activity, total ozone, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from a view of multi-fractality. To detect the changes of multifractality, we examined the multifractal analysis on the time series of the solar 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7 flux), total ozone, QBO, NAO, and Ni?o3.4 indices. During the period 1950 and 2010, for the F10.7 flux and QBO index, the matching in monofractality or multifractality is observed and the increase and decrease of multifractality is similar;that is the change of multifractality is similar. In the same way, it is very similar, during the period 1985 and 2010, for the QBO and the total ozone, and during the period 1950 and 2010, for the QBO, and NAO and for the QBO, and Ni?o3.4. Compared to Ni?o3.4, the multifractality of NAO and QBO was strong and it turns out that they are undergoing unstable change. The relation among the solar activity, total ozone, QBO, NAO, and ENSO was clarified by the methods of fractal analysis and the wavelet coherence. These findings will contribute to the research of the relation between the solar activity and climate change. 展开更多
关键词 solar radio flux Total Ozone QBO NAO ENSO Wavelet MULTIFRACTAL
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Solar Influences on the North Atlantic Oscillation by Wavelet-Based Multifractal Analysis
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作者 Fumio Maruyama Kenji Kai Hiroshi Morimoto 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2018年第8期133-150,共18页
There is increasing interest in the relation between the solar activity and climate change. Regarding the solar activity, the fractal property of the sunspot number (SSN) has been studied by many previous works. In ge... There is increasing interest in the relation between the solar activity and climate change. Regarding the solar activity, the fractal property of the sunspot number (SSN) has been studied by many previous works. In general, fractal properties have been observed in the time series of the dynamics of complex systems. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the solar activity, total ozone, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from a viewpoint of multi-fractality. To detect the changes of multifractality, we performed the wavelets analysis, and plotted the τ-function derived from the wavelets of these time series. We showed that the solar activity relate to the NAO, by observing the matching in monofractality or multifractality of these indices. When the SSN increased and the solar activity was stable, the NAO also became stable. When the SSN became maximum, the fractality of the SSN, F10.7 flux, geomagnetic aa, and NAO indices changed from multifractality to monofractality and those states became stable for most of the solar cycles. When the SSN became maximum, the fluctuations became large and multifractality became strong, and a change from multifractal to monofractal behavior was observed in the SSN, F10.7 flux, geomagnetic aa, and NAO indices. The strong interactions of the solar flux, geomagnetic activity, total ozone, and NAO occur in the SSN maximum. The strong interactions were inferred from the similarity of fractality changes and the wavelet coherence. The influence of the solar activity on the NAO was shown from a viewpoint of multi-fractality. These findings will contribute to the research on the effects of the solar activity on climate change. 展开更多
关键词 The SUNSPOT Number solar radio flux GEOMAGNETIC Activity Total OZONE NAO Wavelet MULTIFRACTAL
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Solar Activity during the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24
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作者 Aradhna Sharma S. R. Verma 《International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics》 2013年第3期212-216,共5页
Solar activity refers to any natural phenomenon occurring on the sun such as sunspots, solar flare and coronal mass ejection etc. Such phenomena have their roots deep inside the sun, where the dynamo mechanism operate... Solar activity refers to any natural phenomenon occurring on the sun such as sunspots, solar flare and coronal mass ejection etc. Such phenomena have their roots deep inside the sun, where the dynamo mechanism operates and fluid motions occur in a turbulent way. It is mainly driven by the variability of the sun’s magnetic field. The present paper studies the relation between various solar features during January 2009 to December 2011. A good correlation between various parameters indicates similar origin. 展开更多
关键词 solar Activity SUNSPOT Number solar radio Emission flux CORONAL Mass Ejections solar X-Ray BACKGROUND
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海口中层大气温度变化特性的Rayleigh激光雷达观测研究
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作者 龚少华 杨洁 +14 位作者 杨国韬 徐寄遥 李发泉 丁宗华 王钰茹 陈伟鹏 彭鸿雁 符运良 曲佚 刘汉军 沈振江 孙书娟 吴伟 羊大立 程学武 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第5期1876-1887,共12页
中层大气温度变化的探测与研究是当前气候变化研究课题的一个组成部分,本文基于海南激光雷达2010—2020年间的长期观测,通过对中层大气Rayleigh散射信号的反演,探讨了海口(19.9°N,110.3°E)上空中层大气(32~64 km)温度变化特性... 中层大气温度变化的探测与研究是当前气候变化研究课题的一个组成部分,本文基于海南激光雷达2010—2020年间的长期观测,通过对中层大气Rayleigh散射信号的反演,探讨了海口(19.9°N,110.3°E)上空中层大气(32~64 km)温度变化特性.研究结果显示,中层大气温度呈周期性变化趋势,年、半年、季节变化幅度最大值分别为6.0、3.8、1.7 K,平流层顶位于42~51 km高度,日平均温度最高为~262 K.平流层温度主要表现为年变化趋势,半年和季节变化不明显;平流层顶和低中间层温度变化趋势具有年和半年变化特征,季节变化不明显.在太阳活动性发生明显变化的周期里,平流层顶温度的年际变化趋势对辐射通量F10.7指数变化有较明显的响应;而在太阳活动平静的年份里,温度变化趋势与太阳辐射通量变化的相关性不明显. 展开更多
关键词 海南岛 Rayleigh激光雷达 中层大气温度 太阳辐射通量F10.7
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基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法
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作者 雷蕾 崔延美 +1 位作者 钟秋珍 师立勤 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第2期212-218,共7页
太阳耀斑是一种重要的太阳爆发活动现象,表现为近乎全波段的电磁辐射增强。统计表明,太阳活动水平越高,太阳爆发越频繁,耀斑爆发的概率越大。利用1975-2007年10.7 cm流量与耀斑爆发的统计关系,建立了一种可行的全日面爆发耀斑概率的预... 太阳耀斑是一种重要的太阳爆发活动现象,表现为近乎全波段的电磁辐射增强。统计表明,太阳活动水平越高,太阳爆发越频繁,耀斑爆发的概率越大。利用1975-2007年10.7 cm流量与耀斑爆发的统计关系,建立了一种可行的全日面爆发耀斑概率的预报方法,能够实现C,M,X三种级别的耀斑在全日面爆发的概率预报。通过2008-2016年的观测数据,对模型进行了预报性能的评估,得到模型对C,M,X级耀斑发生概率的预报误差均较小,Brier评分误差分别为0.113,0.087,0.012;模型的预报性能均比平均模型有提高,对C,M,X级耀斑发生概率预报的Brier技巧评分分别为0.250,0.106,0.012。在2008-2016年未来1天耀斑预报的模型实测中,模型的预报效果与中国科学院空间环境预报中心的预报效果相当,这说明该模型在实际的空间环境预报中切实可行。 展开更多
关键词 10.7 cm流量 全日面耀斑预报 概率预报
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奇异谱分析在太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预测中的应用 被引量:7
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作者 钟秋珍 刘四清 +1 位作者 何卷雄 龚建村 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第3期199-203,共5页
首次尝试利用信号处理技术奇异谱分析方法预测太阳活动低年未来27天太阳10.7cm射电流量.选取的预报试验时间段是2004年4月30日至5月30日,此试验期内太阳活动水平相对较低.在样本时间序列的构建上,吸取了相似周数据分析思路,采取的是23... 首次尝试利用信号处理技术奇异谱分析方法预测太阳活动低年未来27天太阳10.7cm射电流量.选取的预报试验时间段是2004年4月30日至5月30日,此试验期内太阳活动水平相对较低.在样本时间序列的构建上,吸取了相似周数据分析思路,采取的是23周实时观测数据与其相似周第20周下降年部分数据相结合的方式,既增加了样本长度又避开了太阳活动的活跃期.这31天的预报试验结果表明,大部分情况下,预报值基本上体现出F10.7的变化趋势,平均相对误差为10.5%;比同时期美国空军预测值的平均相对误差小,前者为11.3%,后者为14.6%;除两天外,SSA每一次27天的预报结果的平均相对误差比美国空军(AAF)的要小;对不同的时间提前量而言,AAF提前1天到提前12天的预报准确性较奇异谱分析方法要高,即AAF较短期的预报效果更好. 展开更多
关键词 奇异谱分析 射电流量 中期预测 2004年4月 应用 信号处理技术 相对误差 太阳活动 美国空军 预报试验 时间序列 活动水平 分析思路 观测数据 试验结果 样本长度 变化趋势 预报结果 预报效果 时间段 试验期 23周 活跃期 预报值
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三频段太阳射电望远镜与空间天气 被引量:3
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作者 耿立红 谭程明 +8 位作者 敦金平 章宏 贾彦辉 颜毅华 陈志军 马素丽 刘东浩 杜静 苏仓 《天文研究与技术》 CSCD 2018年第4期380-389,共10页
基于地基望远镜对太阳射电辐射流量进行长期监测是空间天气预报的一种重要手段,用来预报太阳活动引发的地球上的各种扰动。明安图和塔什库尔干两台新的三频段(10.7 cm,6.6 cm和3.3 cm)太阳射电望远镜将服务于我国的空间天气监测和预报,... 基于地基望远镜对太阳射电辐射流量进行长期监测是空间天气预报的一种重要手段,用来预报太阳活动引发的地球上的各种扰动。明安图和塔什库尔干两台新的三频段(10.7 cm,6.6 cm和3.3 cm)太阳射电望远镜将服务于我国的空间天气监测和预报,介绍了系统的结构和设计特性、双噪声源定标方法。系统稳定性优于1%(10 h),灵敏度优于1 sfu。展示了明安图太阳射电望远镜2017年试观测的初步结果。 展开更多
关键词 太阳射电辐射流量 望远镜 F10.7指数 定标 空间天气
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太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅰ) 被引量:10
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作者 刘四清 钟秋珍 +1 位作者 温靖 窦贤康 《空间科学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2010年第1期1-8,共8页
采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效... 采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。 展开更多
关键词 10.7cm射电流量 中期预报 自回归方法
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太阳活动对中山站F2层峰值电子浓度的影响 被引量:1
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作者 徐盛 张北辰 +5 位作者 刘瑞源 郭立新 刘俊明 武业文 胡红桥 黄德宏 《极地研究》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2013年第2期142-149,共8页
利用中山站1995—2006年的电离层垂测数据统计分析了当地电离层F2层峰值电子浓度(NmF2)对太阳活动变化的依赖性,研究发现在中山站NmF2月中值随修正太阳10.7厘米通量指数F10.7P增大而增大,其饱和或放大趋势不明显。除冬季12—16 UT、20—... 利用中山站1995—2006年的电离层垂测数据统计分析了当地电离层F2层峰值电子浓度(NmF2)对太阳活动变化的依赖性,研究发现在中山站NmF2月中值随修正太阳10.7厘米通量指数F10.7P增大而增大,其饱和或放大趋势不明显。除冬季12—16 UT、20—2 UT与夏季2—11 UT以外的绝大部分时刻,两者具有良好的线性关系。NmF2月中值随F10.7P变化斜率随季节、地方时而变化。在日变化中,NmF2随F10.7P变化斜率极大值出现在磁中午附近,明显大于其他时刻,在夜侧变化斜率整体较小,且在分季和冬季的夜侧以及夏季全天,其斜率随地方时变化不大。在年变化中,日侧斜率最大值出现在两分季,冬季次之,夏季最小;而夜侧斜率在夏半年(10月—3月)整体上要大于冬半年(4月—9月)。结合中山站位于极隙区纬度的特殊地理位置,分析了上述NmF2变化特征的可能原因。 展开更多
关键词 电离层 F2层峰值电子浓度 太阳10 7厘米通量指数
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DTM94大气模型及其应用 被引量:1
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作者 蒋虎 黄王成 《云南天文台台刊》 CSCD 1999年第4期30-37,共8页
简述了DTM94 大气模型, 并以其旧版本DTM78 为对照进行了初步考察和分析, 其中给出了两种模型的大气密度随地磁指数kp 和太阳辐射流量(Solar Radio Flux) 变化的情况, 并对20d ( 天) 弧长Ajis... 简述了DTM94 大气模型, 并以其旧版本DTM78 为对照进行了初步考察和分析, 其中给出了两种模型的大气密度随地磁指数kp 和太阳辐射流量(Solar Radio Flux) 变化的情况, 并对20d ( 天) 弧长Ajisai 卫星的全球SLR观测资料进行处理, 结果表明DTN94 对近地卫星Ajisai 的精密定轨是十分有利的。 展开更多
关键词 大气模型 DTM94 地磁指数 太阳射电辐射
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全球海温对太阳射电通量异常的响应及其对降水的影响 被引量:2
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作者 周雅清 宋燕 +1 位作者 肖子牛 张红英 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第5期1518-1530,共13页
太阳活动对全球气候的影响一直是人们关心的热门话题,尤其是太阳活动对海温和降水的影响吸引更多学者的目光.本文通过研究全球0~700 m海温对太阳射电通量(Solar Radio Flux,缩写为SRF)的响应,发现全球海温对太阳活动响应具有空间分布不... 太阳活动对全球气候的影响一直是人们关心的热门话题,尤其是太阳活动对海温和降水的影响吸引更多学者的目光.本文通过研究全球0~700 m海温对太阳射电通量(Solar Radio Flux,缩写为SRF)的响应,发现全球海温对太阳活动响应具有空间分布不均匀性特征,显著响应的地区集中在太平洋和南大西洋,显著响应的层次主要在0~200 m.利用响应太阳活动显著区域的海温资料,定义一个响应太阳活动的海温异常指数,研究该指数与同期和滞后1年全球冬夏季降水的相关分布,发现指数高时夏季热带中太平洋降水增多,南北半球中高纬地区降水增加,呈带状分布,南极地区降水显著减少;我国江南东部地区、青藏高原和山东半岛降水减少.冬季热带中部太平洋和东南太平洋地区降水增多,赤道西太平洋降水明显偏少,北极地区降水显著偏多,热带西太平洋和孟加拉湾降水减少,南北两个半球中高纬度地区降水增多;我国华南地区广西和广东西部、海南一带降水增多,东北地区降水减少,青藏高原地区降水显著增加.当海温异常指数低时,情况相反.研究结果表明,海温异常通过影响降水放大了太阳活动的作用.由此推测,在考虑夏季降水的预测问题时,由太阳活动引起的太平洋和大西洋海温异常对降水的影响应该引起重视. 展开更多
关键词 太阳射电通量 海温异常指数 降水 放大作用
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2840MHz太阳射电辐射流量计的升级改造 被引量:1
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作者 杜静 颜毅华 +4 位作者 徐之材 殷兴辉 王威 谭程明 陈志军 《天文研究与技术》 CSCD 2016年第1期52-57,共6页
叙述了国家天文台升级改造后的2 840 MHz太阳射电辐射流量计的设计特点、性能、结构及观测结果。升级改造后的太阳射电辐射流量计将在较高时间分辨率上实时得到2 840 MHz频率上的太阳流量,为太阳物理研究积累丰富的观测数据,是太阳活动... 叙述了国家天文台升级改造后的2 840 MHz太阳射电辐射流量计的设计特点、性能、结构及观测结果。升级改造后的太阳射电辐射流量计将在较高时间分辨率上实时得到2 840 MHz频率上的太阳流量,为太阳物理研究积累丰富的观测数据,是太阳活动监测和预报的重要参数之一。 展开更多
关键词 射电天文 太阳射电辐射流量计 流量观测 辐射计
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Sun's total irradiance reconstruction based on multiple solar indices 被引量:2
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作者 ZHAO Juan HAN YanBen 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第1期179-186,共8页
In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By c... In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By comparing different solar indices associated with TSI during the period 1979 to 2009, several empirical models in the TSI are presented. We verify that the reconstruction model based on the three variables: sunspot number, sunspot area, and solar 10.7 cm radio flux, is the best one. As demonstrated by model calculations, the history of TSI was reconstructed back to 1947 based on 3-indices and to 1874 based on 2-indices, respectively. The reason that the reduced irradiance on the trough during 2006 to 2009 lasts long may be due to the about 85-year cycle of solar activity, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycles), possesses a considerable potential to produce an effective reducing, and holds on a steadily lower level of irradiance. 展开更多
关键词 solar total irradiance sunspot number sunspot area solar 10.7 cm radio flux RECONSTRUCTION
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The Effect of Solar Cycle on Climate of Northeast Asia 被引量:1
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作者 Yan SONG Zhicai LI +3 位作者 Yu GU Kuo-Nan LIOU Xiaoxin ZHANG Ziniu XIAO 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2019年第5期885-894,共10页
The impact of solar activity on climate system is spatiotemporally selective and usually more significant on the regional scale. Using statistical methods and solar radio flux(SRF) data, this paper investigates the im... The impact of solar activity on climate system is spatiotemporally selective and usually more significant on the regional scale. Using statistical methods and solar radio flux(SRF) data, this paper investigates the impact of the solar11-yr cycle on regional climate of Northeast Asia in recent decades. Significant differences in winter temperature,precipitation, and the atmospheric circulation over Northeast Asia are found between peak and valley solar activity years. In peak years, temperature is higher over vast areas of the Eurasian continent in middle and high latitudes, and prone to producing anomalous high pressure there. Northeast Asia is located to the south of the anomalous high pressure, where the easterlies prevail and transport moisture from the western Pacific Ocean to the inland of East Asia and intensify precipitation there. In valley years, temperature is lower over the Eurasian continent and northern Pacific Ocean in middle and high latitudes, and there maintain anomalous low pressure systems in the two regions. Over the Northeast Asian continent, north winds prevail, which transport cold and dry air mass from the high latitude to Northeast Asia and reduce precipitation there. The correlation coefficient of winter precipitation in Northeast China and SRF reaches 0.4, and is statistically significant at the 99% confidence level based on the Student's t-test. The latent heat flux anomalies over the Pacific Ocean caused by solar cycle could explain the spatial pattern of abnormal winter precipitation of China, suggesting that the solar activity may change the climate of Northeast Asia through air–sea interaction. 展开更多
关键词 solar cycle solar radio flux(SRF) CLIMATE ANOMALIES NORTHEAST ASIA
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Interpretation of solar microwave C type burst spectra in terms of magnetic nonhomogeneity
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作者 姚金兴 于兴凤 魏奉思 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 1997年第12期1325-1330,共0页
The solar radio spectra of the gyro-synchrotron radiation without absorption from mildly relativistic non-thermal electron have been presented using the model with the spherical symmetric nonhomogeneity.These spectra ... The solar radio spectra of the gyro-synchrotron radiation without absorption from mildly relativistic non-thermal electron have been presented using the model with the spherical symmetric nonhomogeneity.These spectra have the following features: (i) Twists and turns of the spectra,which appear at the joint between the medium and high frequencies,(ii) Flux density drop at the lower frequencies.Even if there are no absorption in the radio sources,flux density drop at the lower frequencies is still present because of magnetic nonhomogeneity.(iii) These theoretical spectra belong to C type.This provides us a new interpretation for the observed solar burst C type spectra. 展开更多
关键词 spherical symmetric nonhomogeneity gyro-synchrotron SPECTRA TWISTS and TURNS of SPECTRA flux density drop at lower frequencies solar radio BURST C TYPE spectra.
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