The core of the presentation that I propose treats about the application of principal component analysis for the estimation of the future earnings of the Segregated Funds. The Segregated Funds are the pools of assets ...The core of the presentation that I propose treats about the application of principal component analysis for the estimation of the future earnings of the Segregated Funds. The Segregated Funds are the pools of assets which have been using in the Italian Insurance Market since mid 80＇s for managing the ＂with profit＂ business, also known as business with ＂discretionary participation feature＂ according to IFRS4 since the income attributable to the policyholders is composed by the net realised gains less a fee and by a minimum guarantee, if any. The discretion of the Management of the Entity lays on the decision on whether and when to realise both the financial gains and the financial losses of the underlying investments. This strategy is tied by the need to manage an appropriate ALM, from the rules included in the local legislation as well as by the policy about the solvency margin （for example a minimum solvency ratio to fulfil that is conditional upon the value of income attributed that year）. The fee can not be changed, i.e., is not discretionary, the minimum granted could be fixed on annual basis-sometimes paid on cash recurrently-or could be promised only at expiration or sometimes promised at expiration or in advance only for death and disability. In case of years so adverse that the Entity is not able to avoid earnings too low, sometimes the entity delivers an additional bonus, in order to compensate their policyholders, which is based above a full discretion. Principal components are used in finance as well as in other fields such as genetic. You can see some of these applications in two of the references advised below. The purposes of the technique of principal components are （1） to increase objectivity of results and their verifiability by third parties such as auditors, （2） make speeder the time spent for the analytical calculations （i.e., runs of the actuarial models） and （3） to render the relationship between the asset composition and the their earnings effectively used for the best estimate liabilities through their contribution in forecasting future cash flows.展开更多
文摘The core of the presentation that I propose treats about the application of principal component analysis for the estimation of the future earnings of the Segregated Funds. The Segregated Funds are the pools of assets which have been using in the Italian Insurance Market since mid 80＇s for managing the ＂with profit＂ business, also known as business with ＂discretionary participation feature＂ according to IFRS4 since the income attributable to the policyholders is composed by the net realised gains less a fee and by a minimum guarantee, if any. The discretion of the Management of the Entity lays on the decision on whether and when to realise both the financial gains and the financial losses of the underlying investments. This strategy is tied by the need to manage an appropriate ALM, from the rules included in the local legislation as well as by the policy about the solvency margin （for example a minimum solvency ratio to fulfil that is conditional upon the value of income attributed that year）. The fee can not be changed, i.e., is not discretionary, the minimum granted could be fixed on annual basis-sometimes paid on cash recurrently-or could be promised only at expiration or sometimes promised at expiration or in advance only for death and disability. In case of years so adverse that the Entity is not able to avoid earnings too low, sometimes the entity delivers an additional bonus, in order to compensate their policyholders, which is based above a full discretion. Principal components are used in finance as well as in other fields such as genetic. You can see some of these applications in two of the references advised below. The purposes of the technique of principal components are （1） to increase objectivity of results and their verifiability by third parties such as auditors, （2） make speeder the time spent for the analytical calculations （i.e., runs of the actuarial models） and （3） to render the relationship between the asset composition and the their earnings effectively used for the best estimate liabilities through their contribution in forecasting future cash flows.
