Optimization and coordination of South-to-North Water Diversion supply chain with strategic customer behavior

The South-to-North Water Diversion （SNWD） Project is a significant engineering project meant to solve water shortage problems in North China. Faced with market operations management of the water diversion system, this study defined the supply chain system for the SNWD Project, considering the actual project conditions, built a decentralized decision model and a centralized decision model with strategic customer behavior （SCB） using a floating pricing mechanism （FPM）, and constructed a coordination mechanism via a revenue-sharing contract. The results suggest the following： （1） owing to water shortage supplements and the excess water sale policy provided by the FPM, the optimal ordering quantity of water resources is less than that without the FPM, and the optimal profits of the whole supply chain, supplier, and external distributor are higher than they would be without the FPM; （2） wholesale pricing and supplementary wholesale pricing with SCB are higher than those without SCB, and the optimal profits of the whole supply chain, supplier, and external distributor are higher than they would be without SCB; and （3） considering SCB and introducing the FPM help increase the optimal profits of the whole supply chain, supplier, and external distributor, and improve the efficiency of water resources usage.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Penalty model for delay of bidding section construction period in South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Project from perspective of programs

According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,

IMPACTS OF THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECTS (MIDDLE ROUTE)ON THE WATER ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE HANJIANG RIVER

In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well as their impacts on the environment of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The results showed that the 95×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme will cause less erosion and water level decrease than the 15×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme. Using a water diversion scheme of 95×10 8m 3, the decrease of water quantity can impact the river hydrodynamic regime substantially and the environments of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River will be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to develop new water resources or build projects to meet the need of the environment and the needs for navigation.

Impact of the eastern water diversion from the south to the north project on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary in China

The south to the north project (WDP) on the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is studied by the improved three-dimensionai (3D) numerical model.The net unit width flux in the Changjiang Estuary as well as the sectional salt flux is calculated in the North Branch (NB),the South Branch (SB),the North Channel (NC),the South Channel (SC),the North Passage (NP) and the South Passage (SP),respectively.The net seaward water flux in the SB is reduced,and the net water flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is enhanced after the eastern WDP.Under the mean river discharge condition in the dry season,the net salt flux spilling over from the NB to the SB is increased by 2.09 t/s and 0.52 t/s during the spring and neap tides,respectively,due to the eastern WDP.The saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary is enhanced by the eastern WDP.Compared with that during the spring tide,the net water diversion ratio during the neap tide in the NC is smaller,and thus the enhancement of the saltwater intrusion by the eastern WDP is smaller in the NC,and larger in the NP and the SP.The tidally averaged surface salinity at the water intakes of the Dongfengxisha Reservoir,the Chenhang Reservoir and the Qingcaosha Reservoir rises both during the spring and neap tides.

Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons

Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will decrease due to the construction and operation of large water diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which will further exacerbate saltwater intrusion in the estuary. In this paper, a nested 1D river network model and a 2D saltwater numerical model are used to associate saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary with different values of discharge at Datong. It is concluded that 13 000 m3/s is the critical discharge at Datong for preventing saltwater intrusion and controlling the volume of water transferred by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Furthermore, based on the analysis of river discharge from Datong to Xuliujing and in consideration of the influence of all of the water diversion projects, operation schemes are proposed for the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project for different hydrological years.

The variation of DOM during long distance water transport by the China South to North Water Diversion Scheme and impact on drinking water treatment

In this study,samples were taken from three locations,upstream to downstream,along the central route project of the China South to North Water Diversion(SNWD)scheme in summer and winter.These were used to reveal the variations of dissolved organic matter(DOM)during the water transfer process,and the effects of these variations on drinking water treatment and disinfection by-products formation potential(DBPs-FP).The results showed that polysaccharides accumulate in summer and reduce in winter with flow distance,which has an important effect on the overall properties of DOM,as well as on the performance of coagulation,ultrafiltration,and the formation of DBPs.Humic substances,and their hydrophilic content,also increased in summer and decreased in winter with flow distance.In contrast,the concentration of small organic substances(MW≤1000 Da)increased in both summer and winter with flow distance,which affected both nanofiltration(NF)membrane fouling and DBPs-FP.The results provide a useful case study of spatial and temporal changes in raw water DOM during long distance water transfer and their impact on the treatment and quality of drinking water from the SNWD.

基于优化DRASTIC模型的地下水污染风险评价研究-以山东省辖南水北调区域为例

基于南水北调工程对沿线区域提出的水质保障要求及生态可持续发展的需要,对地下水的污染防范和治理已成为研究重点。为查明山东省辖南水北调沿线地区的地下水污染风险,通过对地下水污染源荷载、生态脆弱性以及功能价值三个方面的评价构建地下水污染风险评价体系。通过污染物毒性、排放量及排放可能性对污染荷载进行定量、定性的分析;引入土地利用、土壤氧气含量等数据优化DRASTIC体系,构建DRASTOL模型;利用InVEST模拟的生境质量、夜间灯光系数以及研究区敏感的地下水F-、SO42-等评价因子评估地下水功能价值。发现研究区地下水污染荷载结果整体较低,脆弱性中等偏高,功能价值中等偏低。叠加处理3个结果得到地下水污染风险数据分布状态,整体中等偏下。其中较高、高等级污染风险区域总面积约为7444.88 km^(2),占比约为20.17%,主要分布在菏泽市中部,济宁市中部、西南部,枣庄市西北部,泰安市中部、东部,钢城区南部,该区域地下水位埋深较浅,自然环境下较大的降水易携带地表污染物渗入地下;富水性强、工业及采矿用地密集且排放的污染物毒性较强;高强度的社会经济活动易产生较多污染物,多因素综合影响导致该区域地下水的污染风险指数较高。

基于πPS-FBG传感技术的激光超声水下铝板缺陷检测研究

为实现水下金属构件在线服役状态的在线评估,搭建了一套基于激光超声和π相移光纤布拉格光栅(πPS-FBG)的水下板材缺陷检测系统.为了研究水下激光超声传播规律,以6061铝合金板材为测试样品,进行了不同水深下的激光超声探测实验.与空气中超声传播相比,实验发现水下πPS-FBG多接收到一个超声波信号,此信号是激光第一次与水面作用产生的纵波信号.随着激励源与πPS-FBG传感距离的增加,超声信号在时域上也延迟增加;πPS-FBG接收的激光激励的首个超声波信号的波速为2871.91 m/s,缺陷反射波的波速为2911.02 m/s,其与铝板中超声表面波的速度接近,两者的相对误差分别为1.3%和0.03%.改变激励源与缺陷的距离,发现缺陷的定位精度与缺陷距离无关,缺陷位置的定位相对误差随着距离的增大而逐渐减小.本研究为水下金属构件的在线服役状态检测提供了一种潜在应用技术(包括在南水北调工程中),对于提高水下结构的安全性和可靠性具有一定意义.

HEC-RAS模型在南水北调中线洪水推求中的运用

为提高南水北调中线工程防洪度汛科学性,提升防汛抢险决策水平,有效计算交叉河流过流情况,最大限度减少南水北调交叉河道洪水造成的人员伤亡和工程损失,保障工程正常运行,开展南水北调中线工程交叉河道水文计算工作非常有必要。以南水北调中线交叉河道净肠河倒虹吸河道计算为例,运用HEC-RAS水动力模型对净肠河倒虹吸河道水文复核,根据24小时洪水情况,对交叉河道断面部位洪水流量及水位进行计算,复核验算结论超标洪水问题,为南水北调工程防洪度汛提供信息支撑,以期对其他类似工程科学预防,避免水毁、减小损失能够有所帮助。

南水北调中线工程高填方渠道PS-InSAR形变监测

南水北调工程在缓解我国北方地区的水资源紧张状况与改善当地环境方面发挥了重要作用,作为国之重器,保障其安全运营是南水北调工程的重中之重。利用PS-InSAR技术,对2016年10月—2017年6月间南水北调中线工程叶县文庄村高填方渠道进行形变监测。结果表明,渠道东岸约1 km的边坡存在明显变形,最大形变量达到36 mm。对渠道东岸和4个重点监测断面进行纵横断面分析,发现渠道东岸呈现整体性不均匀沉降,且越靠近水域,渠道变形越大,反之则越小。进一步将PS-InSAR监测结果与二等水准数据对比验证,两者超过87%的均方根误差小于±2 mm,且在形变趋势和量值上均高度一致。本研究可为以高填方、深挖方为特征的南水北调渠道安全监测及灾害防治提供可靠的技术支持。

Computing payment for ecosystem services in watersheds: An analysis of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion in China

Payment for ecosystem services （PES） has attracted considerable attention as an economic incentive for promoting natural resource management recently. As emphasis has been placed on using the incentive-based mechanism by the central government, rapid progress on PES research and practice has been achieved. However PES still faces many difficulties. A key issue is the lack of a fully-fledged theory and method to clearly define the design scope, accounting and feasibility of PES criteria. An improved watershed criteria model was developed in light of research on PES practices in China, investigations on the water source area for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion and ecosystem services outflows theory. The basic principle of assessment is the direct and opportunity cost for ecological conservation and environmental protection in the water source area deduct nationally-financed PES and internal effect. Then the scope and the criteria methods were determined, and internal effect was put forward to define benefits brought from water source area. Finally, Shiyan City, which is the main water source area for the Project of Water Diversion, was analyzed by this model and its payment was calculated. The results showed that： （1） during 2003–2050, the total direct cost and opportunity cost would reach up to 262.70 billion and 256.33 billion Chinese Yuan （CNY, 2000 constant prices）, i.e., 50.61% and 49.38% of total cost, respectively; （2） Shiyan City would gain 0.23, 0.06 and 0.03 CNY/m3 in 2014–2020, 2021–2030, and 2031–2050, respectively.

Potential Ecological Benefits of the Middle Route for the South-North Water Diversion Project

This paper presents a study of the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion Project. The middle route runs through the Northern China plain, where the water shortages are the most severe. There is not only a shortage of water for human usage, but also a shortage of ecological water. Although the current plan for the middle route is strictly focused on supplying water for residential and industrial use, the water can also potentially be used for ecological purposes. This paper evaluates the potential ecological benefits that can be brought to the fragile ecology in northern China by the middle route, in addition to the water supplied to residences and industry. The study describes ecological benefits of the middle route project, such as mitigation of groundwater extraction in the region and positive influences on the climate, the ecological uses of the middle route project itself, such as creating artificial niches along the channel and directly using the channel for ecological purposes, and the ecological uses of the water along the middle route such as diversion of the water into dyer channels that have suffered from drought conditions for decades.

On conservation and development of architecture and environment in the construction of large-scale national infrastructure——Exemplified by the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project

The water-diverting route project’s characteristics,natural landscapes,and histories and humanism of the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project were systemically analyzed through proposing and studying the canal culture routes,the water resources heritage corridors,the landscape and recreation corridors,and the town economic corridors.The station areas along the water-diverting route were scientifically zoned and graded through quantitative and qualitative synthetic methods.Both planning compendiums and construction controlling methods were proposed based on the project grades of points,lines,and areas.Conservation and development of architecture and environment in the large-scale national infrastructure construction were explored systemically.Theories and methods of developing harmonious water-supplying functions,ecological functions,landscape effects,and cultural effects of large-scale water resources were examined.

南水北调中线工程水源区耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿研究--以南阳市为例

南水北调中线工程水源区耕地面源污染治理不仅要依靠先进的科学技术,还需要农户的积极参与。采用TPB理论构建水源区耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿理论分析框架,剖析农户参与意愿的影响因素并提出研究假说;构建结构方程模型,利用问卷调研收集数据,对水源区耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿进行实证检验。研究结果表明,水源区耕地面源污染治理农户参与意愿较高,行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制等潜变量对农户参与意愿均存在正向影响,且潜变量之间也存在相关关系。因此,建议加大水源区耕地面源污染治理重要性的宣传力度,提升农户对于耕地面源污染的认知程度,增加农户的经济收入,增强地方政府的支持力度,多渠道提升水源区耕地面源污染治理的农户参与意愿。

南水北调西线工程水源区可调水量“十问”

南水北调西线工程是我国“四横三纵”国家水网主骨架尚待建设的最后一环,而水源区可调水量是西线工程规划论证面临的焦点和难点问题。本文从水资源本底条件与演变趋势,生态环境与经济社会发展需水,调蓄水库与输水工程规模,调水对水源区及其下游水资源开发利用、水生态环境、水力发电、航运等方面影响的角度,提出了与水源区可调水量相关的10个问题;以长江上游分布式水文模型为基础,建立了南水北调西线工程水源区可调水量模拟分析模型,力图系统、定量地回答所提问题。本文的主要研究结论有:在仅考虑满足水源区河道内外生态环境和经济社会需水的前提下,“上线+下线”组合方案多年平均可调水量为1.59×10^(10)m^(3),“完全下线”方案在建设岗托水库进行联调时,多年平均可调水量将达到1.74×10^(10)m^(3);在综合考虑调水对水源区水平衡、水力发电和航运影响及其可接受程度后,南水北调西线水源区可调水量为1.22×10^(10)~1.26×10^(10)m^(3)。长远来看,应谋划西南片区水网与国家水网主骨架、“大动脉”的连接与融合,在减小南水北调西线工程调水影响的同时,提高南水北调西线工程的整体供水能力以及对气候变化等外部条件的适应性。

南水北调中线冬季冰情变化特征及输水能力提升策略研究

南水北调中线工程冰期输水能力受限已成为制约工程安全运行和社会效益发挥的巨大障碍。认识和辨析通水以来中线干渠冬季水温冰情演变规律及影响机理,是中线干渠冬季输水能力提升亟需解决的关键问题。本文基于2011—2023年中线干渠连续12个冬季的气象、水力、冰情等原型观测资料,分析了中线干渠水温冰情时空分布本底和特征规律,明晰了影响中线干渠冰凌生消的关键因素,针对性提出了冬季输水能力提升的相关应对策略。分析表明:通水以来冰情发生的范围和时间相比理论预想偏小、偏短,冰凌影响区为七里河倒虹吸至北拒马河暗渠段,冰塞风险区为滹沱河倒虹吸至北拒马河暗渠段,多年平均冰厚15 cm,历史极端冰塞厚2.9 m,冰凌壅水最高值0.73 m;干渠冬季水温由南向北递减,依次出现岸冰、流冰和冰盖,日均气温转负后相应的断面平均测量水温在2.5、1.0和0.25℃左右,且沿程水温下降速率与流量和气温呈负相关,即增大输水流量可减缓水温下降速度;影响冰凌生消的关键因素是气温、流量、太阳辐射和风速,典型年如2016年的严重冰情与1月低累计负积温、大输水流量和短时寒潮叠加有关,漕河等渡槽失温快产冰量大与风速密切相关。基于上述分析,未来可考虑结合气象、水情、冰情实时监测和智能预警预报,建立水温-水量-水力协同调控和动态调度技术体系,重点从缩短冰期输水时长、降低冰情影响范围、优化关键控制指标和挖潜渠道防冰塞性能等多方面全面提升南水北调中线工程冬季输水能力。

水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的关键科学问题

变化环境下极端气象水文事件频发,长江、黄河面临同枯风险。在国家水网建设背景下,为提高长江、黄河同枯的极端不利情景下黄河流域水资源安全保障能力,本文分析了长江、黄河两大流域水资源安全面临的现实问题,识别了变化环境下大型流域枯水遭遇—水危机形成—跨流域调水潜力—多线路成网互济—极端枯水下水资源安全保障中亟需破解的关键科学问题,构建了水网布局下黄河流域应对极端枯水的总体研究框架,提出该领域重点研究方向包括:变化环境下长江、黄河极端枯水遭遇规律与空间变异机制,水危机风险多链路传导与复合影响定量评估,极端枯水下跨流域调水挖潜增供,长江和黄河跨流域联合调配与多线路互济精细化调控、极端枯水下流域水资源韧性提升优化调控等。