Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.

Incidence, Mortality, and Epidemiology of Leukemia in South Asia: An Ecological Study

Background: Nowadays cancer is a buzzword in every corner of the world. Back a few decades, cancer was not that much known to the people of South Asia let alone known of Leukemia. Many countries in the South Asian region are designated as developing countries. Hence, the deficiency of diagnosis system, treatment, management, and lack of knowledge about leukemia in this region are major problems. Therefore, the incidence rate, mortality rate, and several deaths are increasing day by day. Methods: This cross-sectional study is aimed to investigate the incidence and mortality of leukemia in South Asian Countries for the year 2020 by acquiring data from the global cancer project (GLOBOCAN2020) accessible at https://gco.iarc.fr. Results: In South Asia, 1,733,573 cancer cases were documented in 2020 where 62,163 cases were leukemia related. The highest incidence rate was reported in Pakistan (4.3 in 1,000,000) and Sri Lanka (4.1 in 1,000,000) and the lowest in Bangladesh (1.8 in 1,000,000) and Nepal (2.0 in 1,000,000). On the other hand, 1,124,875 death had been reported in 2020, where 45,707 (4.1%) death was associated with leukemia. Pakistan (3.4 in 1,000,000) and Maldives (3.1 in 1,000,000) had the highest death and lowest in Bangladesh (1.4 in 1,000,000) and Nepal (1.5 in 1,000,000). Adults aged from 60 - 85 years old have the highest rate of incidence and mortality rate in all countries except Nepal. Conclusions: Leukemia is one of the major concerning cancer of all ages people in South Asia, the situation and related risk factors information can be helpful to reduce death through proper treatment.

Views of South Asian Physicians on Climate Related Health Effects: A Multinational Cross-Sectional Pilot Study

Background: South Asian populations are vulnerable to poor health outcomes associated with climate due to the region’s complex topography, poverty, lack of education, and population density. Physicians, being highly trusted members of society, can help mitigate climate change effects in their countries. Objectives: The present study assessed perceptions of physicians from four South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Pakistan). We hypothesized that physicians from these countries will be aware and knowledgeable about health effects of climate change. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey of physicians between March and July 2022. Data of 201 physicians was analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and Dunn’s post hoc method. Results: Physicians from four South Asian countries were attuned to the health risks associated with climate change. A majority of physicians (86.6%) believed that climate change would make health conditions in their countries more severe or frequent (Bangladesh 83.3%;Bhutan 70%;India 91% and Pakistan 90.8%). The most common health effect related to climate change was illnesses related to reduced outdoor air quality (54.3%). Common barriers to discuss climate change with patients from all four countries were physicians’ lack of knowledge (strongly agree, 13.8%;agree 47.7%) in how to approach the issue with patients, lack of time (strongly agree, 12%;agree, 48%) and their perception that patients were not interested in knowing about climate change (strongly agree, 8.6%;agree, 42.6%). More than half (56.2%) of the physicians reported no training (Bangladesh, 51.7%;Bhutan, 80%;India, 44.6%;Pakistan, 63.1%) and approximately 30% reported less than 20 hours of training (Bangladesh, 28.3%;Bhutan, 15.0%;India, 39.3%;Pakistan, 27.7%) in climate-change-related health effects. Conclusion: While additional large-scale research is needed to understand the trends observed in our pilot study, our findings identify the need to introduce interventions to improve physicians’ knowledge of the health impacts of climate crisis.

Seasonal Variation and Heat Preference of the South Asia High

By use of the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data, the seasonal variation of the South Asia high (SAH) is analyzed. The influences of temporal and spatial variations of the middle and upper level atmospheric temperatures, the visible heat sources, and the diabatic heating rates in the whole atmospheric column on the seasonal variation of the SAH are discussed. Results show that the SAH has two seasonal balancing modes, one of which is the land high in summer and the other the ocean high in winter. The land high itself can be divided into two patterns as well, that is the Tibetan high and the Iranian high. Heating fields have important impacts on the seasonal variation of the SAH. The SAH is a warm high and its center has the property of heat preference, usually locating over or moving to an area with relatively larger heating rates. The annual cycle of the SAH is mainly controlled by the seasonal process of the latent and sensible heating in South Asia. Strong shortwave radiative heating in the north at high latitudes and over the Tibetan Plateau also has an effects on the northward movement and maintenance of the SAH. The cooling effect of infrared radiation is an important cause in weakening the SAH.

The Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean on South Asian High in Boreal Summer

The tropical Indian Ocean （TIO） is warmer than normal during the summer when or after the El Nio decays. The present study investigates the impact of TIO SST on the South Asian High （SAH） in summer. When the TIO is warmer, the SAH strengthens and its center shifts southward. It is found that the variations in the SAH cannot be accounted for by the precipitation anomaly. A possible mechanism is proposed to explain the connection between the TIO and SAH： warmer SST in the TIO changes the equivalent potential temperature （EPT） in the atmospheric boundary layer （ABL）, alters the temperature profile of the moist atmosphere, warms the troposphere, which produces significant positive height anomaly over South Asia and modifies the SAH. An atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM5, which has a reasonable prediction skill in the TIO and South Asia, was selected to test the effects of TIO SST on the SAH. The experiment with idealized heating over the TIO reproduced the response of the SAH to TIO warming. The results suggest that the TIO-induced EPT change in the ABL can account for the variations in the SAH.

Towards safe injection practices for prevention of hepatitis C transmission in South Asia: Challenges and progress

AIM: To summarize the available information about injection use and its determinants in the South Asian region. METHODS: We searched published and unpublished literature on injection safety in South Asia published during 1995-2016 using the keywords "injection" "unsafe injection" and "immunization injection" and combined these with each of the countries and/or their respective states or provinces in South Asia. We used a standardized questionnaire to abstract the following data from the articles: the annual number of injections per capita, the proportion of injections administered with a reused syringe or needle, the distribution of injections with respect to prescribers and providers and determinants of injection use. RESULTS: Although information is very limited for certain countries(i.e., Bhutan, Maldives and Sri Lanka), healthcare injection use is very common across South Asia, with cross-country rates ranging from 2.4 to 13.6 injections/person/year. Furthermore, recent studies show that 5% to 50% of these injections are provided with reused syringes, thus creating potential to transmission of blood-borne pathogens. Qualified and unqualified practitioners, especially in the private sector, are the major drivers behind injection use, but patients also prefer injections, especially among the rural, poor or uneducated in certain countries. According to available data, Pakistan and India have recently taken steps towards achieving safe injection. Potential interventions include the introduction of reuse prevention devices, and patient-, community- and patient/community and provider-centered interventionsto change population and practitioner behavior. CONCLUSION: Injection use is common in South Asian countries. Multilevel interventions aiming at patients, providers and the healthcare system are needed to reduce injection use and reuse.

Analysis of the Simulated Climatic Characters of the South Asia High with a Flexible Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM

The ability of a climate model to reproduce the climatic characters of the South Asia High （SAH） is assessed by analyzing the 110-yr output of a Flexible Coupled GCM, version 0 （FGCM-0）. Comparing the results of FGCM-0 with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the major findings show that FGCM-0 has better results in simulation of the geopotential height field at 100 hPa, and reproduces fairly the main atmospheric circulation centers. However, there are still some differences in the simulated results compared with the reanalysis data. The coupled model also successfully reproduces the mean seasonal variation of the SAH, that is, it moves from the Pacific Ocean to the Asian continent, remaining over the Tibetan Plateau from winter to summer, and then withdraws from the Tibetan Plateau to the Pacific Ocean from summer to winter. However, such observed relationships between the SAH positions and the summer precipitation patterns cannot be fairly reproduced in the FGCM-0.

SSR Analysis on Diversity of AA Genome Oryza Species in the Southeast and South Asia

To investigate genetic diversities among the AA genome Oryza species in the Southeast and South Asia, a total of 428 accessions of the AA genome Oryza species were genotyped using 36 simple sequence repeats (SSR) markers distributed throughout the rice genome. All of the 36 SSR markers generated polymorphic bands, revealing 100% polymorphism. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 17 with the mean of 8.6. The Nei's genetic diversity index (He) ranged from 0.337 at RM455 to 0.865 at RM169 with an average value of 0.650. The genetic diversity of the AA genome Oryza species in the Southeast Asia was obviously higher than that in the South Asia. Among the detected Oryza species in the South and Southeast Asia, O. rufipogon showed the highest genetic diversity. Meanwhile, a higher genetic differentiation (Fst) was found among the detected Oryza species in the Southeast Asia than in the South Asia. The Fst value between O. nivara and O. sativa was the highest. The results from the number of specific alleles, specific loci, and allele frequency confirmed the greater genetic variation among the detected species. In addition, the specific allele in RM161 displayed higher frequency (0.193), suggesting its important function in identifying Oryza species of AA genome.

IMPACTS OF MONTHLY ANOMALIES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTH ASIA ON THE ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON AND RAINFALL IN EASTERN CHINA

The impact of strong(weak) intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) over South China Sea(SCS) and South Asia(SA)in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010.It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer.The study shows that in June and July cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SCS.In August,however,strong(weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA.In June and August cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SA while a strong(weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic(cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July.Besides,in June the strong(weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS,while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak.The impacts of the strong(weak)ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July,which favors less(more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River.However,the impacts are not so apparent in August.In South Asia,the strong(weak) ISO in July results in less(more)rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin.The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July.

Observed Diurnal Cycle of Summer Precipitation over South Asia and East Asia Based on CMORPH and TRMM Satellite Data

The characteristics of the summer precipitation diurnal cycle over South Asia and East Asia during 2001–13 are investigated based on the high spatiotemporal resolution estimates of the CPC(Climate Prediction Center) Morphing(CMORPH) technique. The results show that summer precipitation over South Asia and East Asia possesses a remarkable diurnal cycle, with obvious regional differences. Over the coastal areas, plateau, and high mountains, summer precipitation peaks in the late afternoon; while over low altitude areas, such as valleys, basins, and inshore seas, it peaks during midnight to early morning. In addition to these general features consistent with previous studies, the high resolution CMORPH technique can depict finer regional details, such as the less coherent phase pattern over a few regions. Besides, through comparative analysis of the diurnal cycle strength and precipitation fields, the authors find that for humid areas the summer precipitation diurnal cycle is especially significant over Southeast China, the Sichuan Basin, Hainan Province, Taiwan Province, the Philippines, and Indonesia. And it is relatively weak over the south of Northeast China, central East China, Yunnan Province, the central Indian Peninsula, and most oceanic areas. Comparisons between two satellite datasets—those of the CMORPH and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) 3B42 products—are also presented. For summer precipitation and the main diurnal cycle features, the results from both products agree over most regions, except a few areas, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau.

COMPARISONS OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE SOUTH ASIA HIGH BETWEEN NCEP/NCAR AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATASETS

Comparisons of the west Pacific subtropical high with the South Asia High are made using the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF 500 hPa and 100 hPa monthly boreal geopotential height fields for the period 1961-2000. Discrepancies are found for the time prior to 1980. The west Pacific subtropical high in the NCEP/NCAR data is less intense than in ECMWF data before 1980. The range and strength of the west Pacific subtropical high variation described by the NCEP/NCAR data are larger than those depicted by ECMWF data. The same situation appears in the 100-hPa geopotential field. These discoveries suggest that the interdecadal variation of the two systems as shown by the NCEP/NCAR data may not be true. Besides, the South Asia High center in the NCEP/NCAR data is obviously stronger than in the ECMWF data during the periods 1969, 1979-1991 and 1992-1995. Furthermore, the range is larger from 1992 to 1995.

Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models

This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036e2065) and far-future (2066e2095) periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4
C during winter than of 4.9
C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly subregion within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM uncertainty among the downscaled multi-RCMs. Finally, the RCM related uncertainty is found to be large for the projected changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the hilly sub-regions within HKH by the end of this century, suggesting that improving the regional processes and feedbacks in RCMs are essential for narrowing the uncertainty, and for providing more reliable regional climate change projections suitable for impact assessments in HKH region.

Analysis of South Asian Monsoons within the Context of Increasing Regional Black Carbon Aerosols

South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon(BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model.The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons.The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere,a result that is consistent with previous studies.Pre-monsoon(March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies,particularly for some coastal regions of India.The summer(June-July-August) rainfall anomalies were negative over the northern Himalayas,Myanmar,southern China,and most of the regions below 20°N due to the decrease in temperature gradients induced by the absorption of radiation by BC aerosols.The vertical wind speed anomalies indicated that these regions experienced less convection,which reduces the precipitation efficiency of the monsoon system in South Asia.

IMPACT OF THE HEATING OVER SOUTH ASIA UPON THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER WEST-PACIFIC

A case is reported, during which the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific (hereafter, SHWP in abbreviation) shifted northwestward and met-yu at Chaniiang River valley ended. Several numerical experiments onSHWP activity influenced by the heating over south Asia monsoon area are carried out, and the statistic significance of the results is checked. The results indicate that the enhancement of positive heating over South Asia willmotivate a wave-like series of anomaly centers, which propagate northeastward from the maximum heating center.so that a strong positive potential height anomaly center will set up from North China to Japan at Day X resultingin the enhancement of SHWP. Comparison of the influence upon SHWP by the heating over south Asia monsoonarea with that over ITCZ area south to SHWP is also carried out. It is pointed out that the heating over South Asiamonsoon area tends to favor SHWP north\vard movement while the heating over ITCZ area tends to thvor SHWPwestward stretching. As for the time to begin to influence on SHWP, the heating over south Asia monsoon areafavors the enhancement of SHWP atter Day 3 while that over ITCZ south to SHWP effects atter Day 5.

Adherence to cardiovascular medications in the South Asian population:A systematic review of current evidence and future directions

AIM: To review methods of assessing adherence and strategies to improve adherence to cardiovascular disease(CVD) medications,among South Asian CVD patients. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of English language studies that examined CVD medication adherence in South Asian populations from 1966 to April 1,2015 in SCOPUS and Pub Med. Working in duplicate,we identified 61 studies. After exclusions,26 studies were selected for full text review. Of these,17 studies were included in the final review. We abstracted data on several factors including study design,study population,method of assessing adherence and adherence rate. RESULTS: These studies were conducted in India(n = 11),Pakistan(n = 3),Bangladesh(n = 1),Nepal(n = 1) and Sri Lanka(n = 1). Adherence rates ranged from 32%-95% across studies. Of the 17 total publications included,10 focused on assessing adherence to CVD medications and 7 focused on assessing the impact of interventions on medication adherence. The validated Morisky Medication Adherence Scale(MMAS) was used as the primary method of assessing adherence in five studies. Three studies used validated questionnaires similar to the MMAS,and one study utilized Medication Event Monitoring System caps,with the remainder of the studies utilizing pill count and self-report measures. As expected,studies using non-validated self-report measures described higher rates of adherence than studies using validated scale measurements and pill count. The included intervention studies examined the use of polypill therapy,provider education and patient counseling to improve medication adherence. CONCLUSION: The overall medication adherence rates were low in the region,which suggest a growing need for future interventions to improve adherence.

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 100-hPa SOUTH ASIA HIGH AND MEI-YU IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

By analyzing the change of an index for the characteristics of South Asia High and variations of upper-air troughs in 2002–2005,we studied the impact of South Asia high on the beginning and ending of the Mei-yu(i.e.sustained rain corresponding to the ripening season of plum)in Jiangsu province.Statistic verification is conducted on the relationships between the index and the Mei-yu season in 1991–2005 to examine the impacts of the SAH characteristics index on a rain intensity index of Mei-yu and regional distribution of a characteristics index for different annual patterns of Mei-yu.Historical composite is performed of the 100-hPa circulation field for these patterns using the 100-hPa geopotential height of Northern Hemisphere from 2002 to 2005 and 45-year NCEP reanalysis to study the difference in the circulation for different patterns of Mei-yu.Diagnostic and statistic conclusions,which share much in common,have been obtained as follows.(1)The characteristics preceding to and the advancement/retreat of SAH and the movement of westerly troughs are the factors that influence the onset time of the Mei-yu season;after the Mei-yu onset,the progression/withdrawal of SAH and how farther east it extends are determining how long the Mei-yu lasts and when it ends.(2)During the Mei-yu,the general 100-hPa circulation situation and average characteristics of the SAH are well corresponding to the characteristics of the season and annual patterns of Mei-yu.In addition,the averages of the SAH ridgeline and east-extending index for June,July and the Mei-yu season have some implications to the forecast of the index of Mei-yu intensity.These conclusions can be served as powerful means in determining the starting/ending dates, duration and annual pattern of the Mei-yu season.

Relation among Summer Rainfall in South Shandong and High Pressure in South Asia and Atmospheric Circulation

[Objective] The aim was to study the relation among summer rainfall in south Shandong and high pressure in South Asia and atmospheric circulation.[Method] Taking the precipitation in south Shandong along the Yellow River and Huaihe River,using the NCEP/NCAR data and summer rainfall data in south Shandong in summer from 1961 to 2005,the characteristics of high pressure in South Asia and atmospheric circulation in drought year and flood year in summer in south Shandong Province were expounded.The mechanism of 100 hPa pressure in South Asian influencing precipitation in south Shandong Province was discussed.The interaction of different equipment,different altitude and different system of atmosphere circulation in low and high layer was expounded.[Results] The first mode of EOF decomposition of precipitation in summer in south Shandong Province explained above 63% variances and reflected universal form of precipitation.The difference of central position of the central position of height field of high pressure in South Asia in drought and flood year was small.But the wind field center was inconsistent.As the area of SAH was smaller and its eastern ridge line stretched to the Western Pacific between the middle of south Shandong and Changjiang Estuary,flood summer occurred when there was an unusual cyclone lied in the east of 90° E and south of Lake Baikal.The area of SAH was larger and its eastern ridge line stretching to the Western Pacific over Changjiang Estuary,drought summer occurred,when there was an unusual anticyclone lied in the east of 90° E and south of Lake Baikal.SAH and summer rainfall also had close relationship with Tele-connection Patterns over the Eurasia continent and EAP Tele-connection.When the height anomaly was in '+-+' form in the north of the Caspian Sea,around Lake Baikal and Kamchatka,and when the height anomaly in East Asia-West Pacific area was in '-+' form from low altitude to high altitude,there was much precipitation in summer;and conversely,it was drought in summer in south Shandong.[Conclusion] It provided the oretical basis for summer rainfall in south Shandong.

Characteristics of South Asia High in Summer in 2010 and Its Relationship with Rainbands in China

The characteristics of the South Asia high (SAH) and subtropical westerly jets in the summer of 2010 and their relationship with the changes in rainband in China were analyzed. As shown by the results, the SAH in the upper troposphere extended northward relatively late in June 2010. Correspondingly, the subtropical westerly jets on the north side of the SAH jumped northward comparatively late, thus delaying the formation of a strong divergence field in the upper air over the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley. This was one of the main causes for the late onset of plum rains in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley. In July, there was a vertical structure consisting of upper-level divergence and low-level convergence near the subtropical westerly jets on the north side of the SAH and in the air stream dispersal area on the northeast side of the eastward-extending SAH, which was the dynamic mechanism bringing about frequent and extremely heavy rainstorms during the plum rain period in this year. The SAH in the upper troposphere affected the subtropical high in the lower stratosphere, and thereby led to changes in the main rainband location in China.

FURTHER RESEARCH ON MECHANISM OF TBO IN SOUTH ASIAN MONSOON REGION

The results of this study prove that there is significant troposphere biennial oscillation(TBO) in the South Asian climate, especially with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In order to explore the mechanism of TBO in the South Asian region, we defined a unified South Asian monsoon index to depict South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) and South Asian winter monsoon(SAWM) and the transition features between SASM and SAWM. Through further analysis, the connection between the abnormity of SASM and SAWM was discovered. Normally, a strong SAWM is beneficial for a weak SASM later, while a weak SAWM favors a strong SASM. Meanwhile, a strong SASM is favorable for a weak SAWM and a weak SAWM always happens after a weak SASM. Such results suggest the evolution of the South Asian monsoon, which may be an important mechanism to excite TBO in South Asia.

Public health preparedness and responses to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic in South Asia:a situation and policy analysis

Like rest of the world,the South Asian region is facing enormous challenges with the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.The socio-economic context of the eight South Asian countries is averse to any longterm lockdown program,but the region still observed stringent lockdown close to two months.This paper analyzed major measures in public health preparedness and responses in those countries in the pandemic.The research was based on a situation analysis to discuss appropriate plan for epidemic preparedness,strategies for prevention and control measures,and adequate response management mechanism.Based on the data from March 21 to June 26,2020,it appeared lockdown program along with other control measures were not as effective to arrest the exponential growth of fortnightly COVID-19 cases in Afghanistan,Bangladesh,India,Nepal and Pakistan.However,Bhutan,Maldives and Sri Lanka have been successfully limiting the spread of the disease.The in-depth analysis of prevention and control measures espoused densely populated context of South Asia needs community-led intervention strategy,such as case containment,in order to reverse the growing trend,and adopt the policy of mitigation instead of suppression to formulate COVID-19 action plan.On the other hand,mechanism for response management encompassed a four-tier approach of governance to weave community-led local bodies with state,national and international governance actors for enhancing the countries’emergency operation system.It is concluded resource-crunch countries in South Asia are unable to cope with the disproportionate demand of capital and skilled health care workforce at the time of the pandemic.Hence,response management needs an approach of governance maximization instead of resource maximization.The epidemiologic management of population coupled with suitable public health prevention and control measures may be a more appropriate strategy to strike a balance between economy and population health during the time of pandemic.