Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Geological conditions and key rock mechanics issues in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

In terms of special geological conditions of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the classification method for surrounding rocks is discussed by combining with the construction method of tunnel boring machine （TBM）. The classification standard of surrounding rocks is put forward on the basis of physical simulations and engineering practices. Damage, deformation and evolution of surrounding rocks induced by TBM excavation are discussed. Meanwhile, the long-term deformation mechanisms and stability of surrounding rocks are also studied. On this basis, a three-dimensional constitutive model for interbedded sandstone slate and a fiat shell-joint element-foundation system for calculating internal forces of segment lining are established. The deformation features of surrounding rocks of deep and steep interbedded sandstone slate and their influences on internal forces of segment lining are presented. Finally, the design methods of segment lining constructed in deep and steep flysch are proposed.

Eco-environmental benefit assessment of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme——the middle route project

This paper assess the eco-environmental benefits that may come from the middle route project of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme(SNWT) with principles and methods of eco-economics and planning reports of SNWT's middle route project. Some benefits were calculated in monetary units. To make sure that the results can be comparable with normal monetary indices, concrete assessment objects and the parameters are prudently selected according to the major characteristics of the project and its water import region. Primary assessment revealed that in different project construction stages, the benefit could be more than 13 07 billion RMB Yuan in 2010 and 19 79 billion RMB Yuan in 2030, respectively. The monetary value tends to increase with social-economic development. To realize these potential benefits, however, calls for more endeavors.

Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons

Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will decrease due to the construction and operation of large water diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which will further exacerbate saltwater intrusion in the estuary. In this paper, a nested 1D river network model and a 2D saltwater numerical model are used to associate saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary with different values of discharge at Datong. It is concluded that 13 000 m3/s is the critical discharge at Datong for preventing saltwater intrusion and controlling the volume of water transferred by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Furthermore, based on the analysis of river discharge from Datong to Xuliujing and in consideration of the influence of all of the water diversion projects, operation schemes are proposed for the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project for different hydrological years.

Forecasting Loss of Ecosystem Service Value Using a BP Network: A Case Study of the Impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project on the Ecological Environmental in Xiangfan, Hubei Province, China

Objective To recognize and assess the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on the ecological environment of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, situated in the water-out area, and develop sound scientific countermeasures. Methods A three-layer BP network was built to simulate topology and process of the eco-economy system of Xiangfan. Historical data of ecological environmental factors and socio-economic factors as inputs, and corresponding historical data of ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP as target outputs, were presented to train and test the network. When predicted input data after 2001 were presented to trained network as generalization sets, ESVs and GDPs of 2002, 2003, 2004... till 2050 were simulated as output in succession. Results Up to 2050, the area would have suffered an accumulative total ESV loss of RMB 104.9 billion, which accounted for 37.36% of the present ESV. The coinstantaneous GDP would change asynchronously with ESV, it would go through an up-to-down process and finally lose RMB89.3 billion, which accounted for 18.71% of 2001. Conclusions The simulation indicates that ESV loss means damage to the capability of socio-economic sustainable development, and suggests that artificial neural networks (ANNs) provide a feasible and effective method and have an important potential in ESV modeling.

Price Analysis of Water Supply for South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from the viewpoint of economic policies. It is considered that if the project is assigned as a profitable one and built depending on commercial loan from bank completely or mostly, the water price will be too high to be undertaken by users,and if the project places the public good at first while considering the economic benefit, its investment mainly relies on the state (national or local governments) appropriation and self-raised funds and a little from the bank loan on favorable terms, the price determined according to the principle of satisfying the cost and reasonable profit will be relatively lower and can be undertaken by the users in the North China where water shortage is serious. The problem of higher water price of agricultural irrigation to the north of the Yellow River can be tackled by taking measures such as "compensating agriculture by industry" according to foreign practical experiences and relevant suggestions.

LONG AND DEEP DIVERSION TUNNELS OF 1^(ST) STAGE PROJECT IN WEST ROUTE OF SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

West Route of South-North Water Transfer Project,situated in southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is a giant project,which will deliver 17 billion m3 of water from the main stream and tributaries upstream of the Yangtze River to the upper reaches of the Yellow River. It is to be constructed in 3 stages, of which the 1st stage project includes delivering 4 billion m3 of water by gravity from two tributaries of Yalong River and three tributaries of Dadu River. The project consists of 5 dams,7 tunnels and a channel in series,with the dam height of 63～123 m and water transfer length of 260.3 km,of which the tunnels measure 244.1 km. The special climatic,environmental and geologic conditions make the project much more complicated in construction,especially 3 tunnels with the length longer than 50 km each create challenges to the technical requirements of engineering survey,design and construction.

Evolution trend of the water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project in China

To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.

Simulation of Transport Channel in China's Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The unsteady flow in the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Channel was simulated numerically using an implicit solution procedure for the Saint Venant equations. An equivalent roughness was used to simulate the effect of many transfer structures on the water levels in the main channel. Various gate operating and control methods were analyzed to study the response to disturbances produced by varying the flow rates through the Tianjin outlet. The results show that when the inflow at the head changes in the same way as the sum of the flow rates through all the outlets, the transition time and the fluctuation of the water levels using the timed gate operation method are less than when using the simultaneous gate operation method, but the variations of the gate openings and flow rates through each control gate are much larger. The flow disturbances produced by the Tianjin outlet can be rectified within several channel sections and the transition time can be greatly shortened by allowing the water levels immediately upstream of the control gates to vary within proscribed ranges, rather than being held constant.

Computing payment for ecosystem services in watersheds: An analysis of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion in China

Payment for ecosystem services （PES） has attracted considerable attention as an economic incentive for promoting natural resource management recently. As emphasis has been placed on using the incentive-based mechanism by the central government, rapid progress on PES research and practice has been achieved. However PES still faces many difficulties. A key issue is the lack of a fully-fledged theory and method to clearly define the design scope, accounting and feasibility of PES criteria. An improved watershed criteria model was developed in light of research on PES practices in China, investigations on the water source area for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion and ecosystem services outflows theory. The basic principle of assessment is the direct and opportunity cost for ecological conservation and environmental protection in the water source area deduct nationally-financed PES and internal effect. Then the scope and the criteria methods were determined, and internal effect was put forward to define benefits brought from water source area. Finally, Shiyan City, which is the main water source area for the Project of Water Diversion, was analyzed by this model and its payment was calculated. The results showed that： （1） during 2003–2050, the total direct cost and opportunity cost would reach up to 262.70 billion and 256.33 billion Chinese Yuan （CNY, 2000 constant prices）, i.e., 50.61% and 49.38% of total cost, respectively; （2） Shiyan City would gain 0.23, 0.06 and 0.03 CNY/m3 in 2014–2020, 2021–2030, and 2031–2050, respectively.

Potential Ecological Benefits of the Middle Route for the South-North Water Diversion Project

This paper presents a study of the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion Project. The middle route runs through the Northern China plain, where the water shortages are the most severe. There is not only a shortage of water for human usage, but also a shortage of ecological water. Although the current plan for the middle route is strictly focused on supplying water for residential and industrial use, the water can also potentially be used for ecological purposes. This paper evaluates the potential ecological benefits that can be brought to the fragile ecology in northern China by the middle route, in addition to the water supplied to residences and industry. The study describes ecological benefits of the middle route project, such as mitigation of groundwater extraction in the region and positive influences on the climate, the ecological uses of the middle route project itself, such as creating artificial niches along the channel and directly using the channel for ecological purposes, and the ecological uses of the water along the middle route such as diversion of the water into dyer channels that have suffered from drought conditions for decades.

Coupling interaction between biodiversity and aquatic habitat area in Western Route Project vicinity

The Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will divert water from the upper Yangtze River and its tributaries, the Dadu River and Yalong River, to the upper Yellow River. The project may ease the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin. However, it may also have some effects on the ecosystem in the upper Yangtze River Basin. Benthic invertebrates play an important role in the river ecosystem, particularly in the circulation of materials and nutrition. Benthic invertebrates are widely used to quickly assess river ecosystems because of their rapid response to changes in the water environment. The diversity of benthic invertebrates is closely associated with the aquatic habitat area. This study examined this interaction by sampling the benthic invertebrates in an expanding area. The conclusions are that the diversity of benthic invertebrates begins to decrease when the aquatic habitat area is reduced to 45% of the original area, and decreases dramatically when the aquatic habitat area is reduced to 10% of the original area. The aquatic habitat area should be kept at more than 45% of the original area in order to maintain the significant diversity of benthic invertebrates.

On conservation and development of architecture and environment in the construction of large-scale national infrastructure——Exemplified by the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project

The water-diverting route project’s characteristics,natural landscapes,and histories and humanism of the Jiangsu Section of the Eastern Route South-to-North Water Diversion Project were systemically analyzed through proposing and studying the canal culture routes,the water resources heritage corridors,the landscape and recreation corridors,and the town economic corridors.The station areas along the water-diverting route were scientifically zoned and graded through quantitative and qualitative synthetic methods.Both planning compendiums and construction controlling methods were proposed based on the project grades of points,lines,and areas.Conservation and development of architecture and environment in the large-scale national infrastructure construction were explored systemically.Theories and methods of developing harmonious water-supplying functions,ecological functions,landscape effects,and cultural effects of large-scale water resources were examined.

2-D NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOODING EFFECTS CAUSED BY SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

Since the General Channel designed for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has to cross many rivers and streams flowing from west to east, there are potentially serious effects additional flooding on the western side of the project alignment. Therefore, a 2-D numerical model for forecasting basin flood disasters was established and verified using historical flood data. The model was applied to researching the interaction between the proposed Project and flooding events for 5 streams in the Anyang River reach as a representative case study. Simulated results indicate that the model could correctly forecast the flood, submerged area and depths, and water surface elevations along the left side of the channel. The discharge capacity and location of hydraulic structures in the transfer canal alignment were analyzed. Then adjustments to the dimensions and positioning of proposed hydraulic structures were recommended at intersections, especially the addition of a channel to transfer flood water from one stream to another, which can effectively limit the sluice and protect the Anyang City from flooding.

南水北调西线工程水源区气象条件分析

南水北调西线工程是缓解黄河中上游地区水资源短缺的重要举措,但全球气候变化影响水源区的水资源供给和分配,目前对水源区气象特征缺乏整体的认知,其内部气象变化的时空差异和敏感性也需进一步阐明。因此,基于1961—2020年逐日气象数据对水源区降水和气温进行趋势、突变和相关性分析。结果表明:从变化趋势来看,水源区气象要素对全球气候变化响应敏感,降水量以16.14 mm/10 a的速度显著增加,接近我国平均速度的3倍;气温上升速度为0.26℃/10 a,与全国平均速度持平。从时空分布来看,水源区多年平均降水量由东南向西北递减,年内分布变差系数为0.91,降水主要集中在6—9月,占全年的72%;多年平均气温为3.62℃,呈现由北向南递增的趋势,年内气温介于-16.7与16.4℃之间。同时,水源区内部气候敏感性存在差异,降水变化敏感区为水源区靠近两河口和双江口区域,清水河、石渠和色达为气温变化敏感站;敏感站之间存在较强的相关性,其气象条件可能同时剧变,配水策略应避免风险叠加。

MODELING OF WATER DYNAMICS AND POLLUTANT SPREADING IN THE LUOMAHU RESERVOIR FOR WATER TRANSFER FORM SOUTH TO NORTH OF CHINA

Water quality is the key problem of the East-Line Project of Water Transfer from South to North China. In this paper, the principles of a 1D and 2D-integrated mathematical model for describing the dynamics of water in a flow-through river, canals and lakes was worked out. The numerical method and model algorithm were developed. The efficiency of the model was estimated by applying it to studying water dynamics in the Luomahu reservoir and simulating the spreading process of a polluted water mass and the evolution of the concentration. The results of calculations are used to assess water environmental quality and to manage water resource in the Luomahu reservoir and the Jinghang-Canal for the Project of Water Transfer from South to North China.

南水北调东线江苏段工程供水成本核算研究

围绕南水北调东线江苏段工程,基于规划与实际调水量、淮水利用比例、泵站开机等基本情况,探讨工程最新成本构成与核算方法,核算南水北调东线江苏段工程供水成本。通过分析各项费用、各个区段在单方水总成本中的占比,明晰供水成本结构特征,并对最易影响固定成本与可变成本变化的费用进行了敏感性分析,为相关供水成本体系研究提供参考。

高填方渠堤土劈裂强度及裂隙演化特性

劈裂强度是影响土质边坡稳定性的重要因素之一。由于不同土体的水敏性不同,使得不同含水率下土体的强度和变形存在差异。为探讨不同初始含水率条件下膨胀土和改性土的劈裂强度特性和裂隙演化机制差异,采用粒子图像测速(particle image velocimetry,PIV)技术对南阳市南水北调中线工程高填方渠堤中的膨胀土和改性土进行了一系列劈裂试验,试验结果表明:(1)膨胀土和改性土的荷载-位移曲线具有相同阶段,但不同含水率下的阶段特征有所差异;(2)膨胀土试样的临界含水率和峰值荷载均小于改性土试样,但2种土体的峰值荷载随着含水率的增加呈先增加后减小的变化规律,具有单峰值特征;(3)由位移矢量场可知,膨胀土和改性土试样劈裂破坏时均是主裂隙呈径向垂直,次生裂隙发育,不同初始含水率的膨胀土和改性土试样的裂隙发育形态基本一致。研究结果对类似工程的稳定性防治具有借鉴意义。

南水北调中线涿州站冬季异常低温事件频次分析

为有效揭示南水北调中线工程冬季异常低温事件的发生规律,选取中线总干渠明渠段最北端冬季气温相对最低、冰情严重的涿州气象站为例,基于该站1981~2021年冬季日平均气温数据,在采用标准差阈值法对冬季异常低温事件进行定义和等级划分的基础上,对中线工程近年来的冬季异常低温事件频次变化规律进行了统计分析。结果表明:(1)进入12月份,涿州站日平均气温基本接近0℃,之后逐步降低;在12月下旬至次年的1月中旬,日平均气温达到年度最低,多年平均值基本维持在-4℃上下;而后逐步上升,在2月中旬前后基本恢复至0℃以上。(2) 1981~2021年间,涿州站共发生冬季异常低温事件31次,累计天数251 d,其中1980年代发生次数最多,其次是2000和2010年代,而1990年代发生次数最少,事件发生频次总体呈现下降趋势。(3)在冬季3个月中,1月份发生次数最多,次均发生天数也最长,12月份次之,而2月份发生次数最少,次均发生天数也最短,冬季异常低温事件发生日主要集中在12月下旬至1月上旬及1月中下旬。(4) 1981~2021年,涿州站冬季分别发生一级、二级、三级异常低温事件11,5,15次,其中,一级、三级事件在1月发生次数最多,而二级事件在1月发生次数最少。正式通水至2021年,中线工程共发生冬季异常低温事件3次,且均为三级,对冰期输水影响相对有限。研究成果可为南水北调中线工程冰期输水调度和冰凌灾害防御提供参考。

1981~2021年南水北调中线工程安阳河以北段冬季冷暖变化特征分析

为更好地开展南水北调中线工程冰期输水调度,基于中线工程沿线8个国家气象站点的1981~2021年冬季日平均气温数据,采用气候平均值、气候倾向率等统计方法,并依据国家冷暖冬等级划分标准,在年度尺度上,对安阳河以北段近41 a来冬季冷暖变化气候特征进行了统计分析。结果表明:①1981~2021年,各站冬季平均气温基本为-5~3℃,在空间上整体呈现南高北低的特征,南北温差基本为3~4℃。②1981~2021年,各站冬季平均气温年际变化规律基本一致,整体上均呈现出波动上升的趋势,增温幅度为0.113~0.713℃/(10 a),整体表现为南北升温速率低,中部升温速率高的特点。③从年代际变化来看,1980年代各站冬季平均气温最低,多为偏冷年份,整体上1980,1990和2010年代表现为升温趋势,2010年代升温最为显著,而2000年代则表现为降温趋势。其中,在2000年代和2010年代,各站冬季平均气温波动频繁,且幅度较大,平均气温标准差均超过了1.0℃。④近41 a区域暖冬年共出现12次,主要在1990年代中期以后,区域冷冬年共出现18次,其中,1980年代最多,1990年代最少,自1990年代末期开始,区域冷冬年、暖冬年时常交替出现,而在2014年后,区域暖冬年明显偏多。研究成果可为南水北调中线工程优化冰期输水调度、提升冬季渠道过流能力提供参考。