Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons

Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will decrease due to the construction and operation of large water diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which will further exacerbate saltwater intrusion in the estuary. In this paper, a nested 1D river network model and a 2D saltwater numerical model are used to associate saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary with different values of discharge at Datong. It is concluded that 13 000 m3/s is the critical discharge at Datong for preventing saltwater intrusion and controlling the volume of water transferred by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Furthermore, based on the analysis of river discharge from Datong to Xuliujing and in consideration of the influence of all of the water diversion projects, operation schemes are proposed for the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project for different hydrological years.

Geological conditions and key rock mechanics issues in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

In terms of special geological conditions of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the classification method for surrounding rocks is discussed by combining with the construction method of tunnel boring machine （TBM）. The classification standard of surrounding rocks is put forward on the basis of physical simulations and engineering practices. Damage, deformation and evolution of surrounding rocks induced by TBM excavation are discussed. Meanwhile, the long-term deformation mechanisms and stability of surrounding rocks are also studied. On this basis, a three-dimensional constitutive model for interbedded sandstone slate and a fiat shell-joint element-foundation system for calculating internal forces of segment lining are established. The deformation features of surrounding rocks of deep and steep interbedded sandstone slate and their influences on internal forces of segment lining are presented. Finally, the design methods of segment lining constructed in deep and steep flysch are proposed.

Forecasting Loss of Ecosystem Service Value Using a BP Network: A Case Study of the Impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project on the Ecological Environmental in Xiangfan, Hubei Province, China

Objective To recognize and assess the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on the ecological environment of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, situated in the water-out area, and develop sound scientific countermeasures. Methods A three-layer BP network was built to simulate topology and process of the eco-economy system of Xiangfan. Historical data of ecological environmental factors and socio-economic factors as inputs, and corresponding historical data of ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP as target outputs, were presented to train and test the network. When predicted input data after 2001 were presented to trained network as generalization sets, ESVs and GDPs of 2002, 2003, 2004... till 2050 were simulated as output in succession. Results Up to 2050, the area would have suffered an accumulative total ESV loss of RMB 104.9 billion, which accounted for 37.36% of the present ESV. The coinstantaneous GDP would change asynchronously with ESV, it would go through an up-to-down process and finally lose RMB89.3 billion, which accounted for 18.71% of 2001. Conclusions The simulation indicates that ESV loss means damage to the capability of socio-economic sustainable development, and suggests that artificial neural networks (ANNs) provide a feasible and effective method and have an important potential in ESV modeling.

Water Security Situation in Haihe River Basin after South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The over-exploitation of water resources in the Haihe River Basin （HRB） has now become a serious problem. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that many local rivers and lakes are drying up and the total amount of over-exploited groundwater has reached over 1000×10^8m^3. It is important to note that the exploitation of water resources in HRB was reasonable before 1979. After 1980, however, over-exploitation happened with an annual average amount of 40×10^8m^3. Both the dry season and rapid economic growth in HRB took place at the same time. Therefore, the over-exploitation of water in HRB was actually the negative result of the conjunction of a continuous dry season and rapid economic growth. So the over-exploitation would not be as serious as it is today if either of the above two stopped. After the first stage of south-to-north water transfer project, the water shortage problem in HRB could be eased for the following reasons： firstly, water transfer project will bring to the Basin 60x108m3 water resources; secondly, a wet season will come back eventually according to natural law of climate variability; finally, its agricultural and industrial use and total water consumption all have decreased from the peak value, so that the groundwater table will raise certainly and ecological water in rivers and lakes that were dried-up will be partly restored. In the future, the main problem of water resources security in HRB will include water pollution, operation risk of the south-to-north water transfer project, groundwater pollution and engineering geological hazards that may be brought by groundwater rise. The proposed countermeasures are as follows： keeping strengthening water demand management, raising water price as well as subsidies for the low- income family and improving other water related policies, preventing and dealing with water pollution seriously and getting fully prepared for the operation of south-to-north water transfer project.

Price Analysis of Water Supply for South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from the viewpoint of economic policies. It is considered that if the project is assigned as a profitable one and built depending on commercial loan from bank completely or mostly, the water price will be too high to be undertaken by users,and if the project places the public good at first while considering the economic benefit, its investment mainly relies on the state (national or local governments) appropriation and self-raised funds and a little from the bank loan on favorable terms, the price determined according to the principle of satisfying the cost and reasonable profit will be relatively lower and can be undertaken by the users in the North China where water shortage is serious. The problem of higher water price of agricultural irrigation to the north of the Yellow River can be tackled by taking measures such as "compensating agriculture by industry" according to foreign practical experiences and relevant suggestions.

Water-saving potential evaluation of water-receiving regions in Shandong province on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China

Taking 13 water-receiving areas on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(ERSNWDP)in Shandong Province as the study area,and comparing it with Jiangsu Province on the ERSNWDP and the Middle Route of the South-to-North(MRSNWDP),the current water-saving potential of the water-receiving areas within the municipalities of Shandong was analyzed.Different water-saving scenarios were constructed and analyzed with key water-saving indexes in various industries.These indexes include the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water,total water consumption of industrial sectors with an added value of over 10000 RMB,average leakage rate of the urban public water supply pipe network and the penetration rate of water-saving appliances.Based on the scenarios,comprehensive water-saving potential of the 13 water-receiving area cities was calculated.The results show that the water-saving potential of the study area is at a relative high level.However,some cities still have a certain amount of water-saving potential for agriculture and industry to be elevated.Under the recommended water-saving scenario,the water-saving potential is 1.134 billion m3,accounting for 5.33%of the current total water consumption,of which 460 million m3 is in agriculture,600 million m3 in industry,is and 74.20 million m3 in urban domestic sector.Comprehensive water-saving measures for the study area were proposed from the aspects of agricultural,industrial and domestic water uses.Agricultural and industrial water saving are more significant.The major cities for agricultural water saving include Jining City,Heze City,Weifang City and Jinan City;the focus cities of industrial water saving mainly include Weihai City,Jining City and Qingdao City and etc.;the key water-saving areas for urban use mainly include Zaozhuang City,Jining City and Heze City.

The Evaluation of the Integrated Risk for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project Using the Bayesian Network Theory

南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为"较低"。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。

Simulation of Transport Channel in China's Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The unsteady flow in the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Channel was simulated numerically using an implicit solution procedure for the Saint Venant equations. An equivalent roughness was used to simulate the effect of many transfer structures on the water levels in the main channel. Various gate operating and control methods were analyzed to study the response to disturbances produced by varying the flow rates through the Tianjin outlet. The results show that when the inflow at the head changes in the same way as the sum of the flow rates through all the outlets, the transition time and the fluctuation of the water levels using the timed gate operation method are less than when using the simultaneous gate operation method, but the variations of the gate openings and flow rates through each control gate are much larger. The flow disturbances produced by the Tianjin outlet can be rectified within several channel sections and the transition time can be greatly shortened by allowing the water levels immediately upstream of the control gates to vary within proscribed ranges, rather than being held constant.

Ecological assessment of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation on eastern route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

To evaluate the ecological effects of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation on the eastern route of the Southto-NorthWater Transfer Project,species composition,coverage,height,and biomass of wetland communities at 22 sites of the study area on the shore of Nansi Lake in April and May 2007 were investigated.The wetlands under investigation were divided into platform fields,transition zones,and shallow water zones according to differences in elevations,water levels,and human activities.The species richness index,Shannon-Wiener index,Simpson index,and Pielou Evenness index were adopted to delineate and discuss the ecological effects of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation in 22 quadrates.Results showed that the species richness of the wetland areas after 2 years’rehabilitation amounted to 47 of 24 families,higher than 25 of 20 families in areas without rehabilitation.The biodiversity index and abundance index of rehabilitated areas were also higher than those of platform fields and fish ponds where there was no rehabilitation.In addition,the Shannon-Wiener index,Simpson index,and community evenness index of platform fields in rehabilitated wetland areas were 1.619,0.745,and 0.860,respectively,higher than those of the platform fields before rehabilitating.The results suggested that the constructed lakeshore wetland played an important role in protecting the diversity of species.

2-D NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOODING EFFECTS CAUSED BY SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

Since the General Channel designed for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has to cross many rivers and streams flowing from west to east, there are potentially serious effects additional flooding on the western side of the project alignment. Therefore, a 2-D numerical model for forecasting basin flood disasters was established and verified using historical flood data. The model was applied to researching the interaction between the proposed Project and flooding events for 5 streams in the Anyang River reach as a representative case study. Simulated results indicate that the model could correctly forecast the flood, submerged area and depths, and water surface elevations along the left side of the channel. The discharge capacity and location of hydraulic structures in the transfer canal alignment were analyzed. Then adjustments to the dimensions and positioning of proposed hydraulic structures were recommended at intersections, especially the addition of a channel to transfer flood water from one stream to another, which can effectively limit the sluice and protect the Anyang City from flooding.

Optimal Operation for Baoying Pumping Station in East Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer

Baoying pumping station is a part of source pumping stations in East Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer in China. Aiming at the characteristics of head varying, and making use of the function of pump adjustable blade, mathematical models of pumping station optimal operation are established and solved with genetic algorithm. For different total pumping discharge and total pumping volume of water per day, in order to minimize pumping station operation cost, the number and operation duties of running pump units are respectively determined at different periods of time in a day. The results indicate that the saving of electrical cost is significantly effected by the schemes of adjusting blade angles and time-varying electrical price when pumping certain water volume of water per day, and compared with conventional operation schemes （namely, the schemes of pumping station operation at design blade angles based on certain pumping discharge）, the electrical cost is saved by 4.73%-31.27%. Also, compared with the electrical cost of conventional operation schemes, the electrical cost is saved by 2.03%-5.79% by the schemes of adjusting blade angles when pumping certain discharge.

Quantitative standard of eco-compensation for the water source area in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China

The Middle Route Project(MRP)of the Southto-North Water Transfer Scheme(SNWT)in China will require a very large financial expenditure to ensure the water supply and the associated water quality to northern China.An eco-compensation mechanism between the water service source areas and its beneficiaries is essential.This paper establishes an analytic framework of ecocompensation standard for the protection of the water source area,including both the calculation of ecocompensation based on opportunity cost method(OCM)and calculation of the burden sharing of eco-compensation between the water source area and the external water reception area based on the deviation square method(DSM).Taking Shiyan City,Hubei Province in China as a case study,our results show that the eco-compensation in the first-phase of MRP for the water source area in Shiyan,Hubei Province should be 1.63×10^(10) CNY,about four times of planned eco-construction investment budget(4.33×10^(9) CNY).In addition,the burden sharing of eco-compensation varied greatly in terms of different methods.It would be better to integrate the results of different single-factor burden sharing methods by determining the corresponding weighting coefficient with DSM and form one unanimous consent result by the interested parties.

Research on Expansive Soils Encountered in Middle Route Project of South-to-north Water Transfer Canal

The main canal of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer totals more than 1 240 km in length. In Henan Province and Hebei Province, there will be a section of more than 120 km passing through an expansive soils area. Expansive soils is a special kind of tenacious clay, which swells when meeting with water and shrinks when losing water. With complicated mechanical properties, it changes with the variation of water content. As a result, expansive soils become the key object of study on unsaturated soils mechanics for the project. From the status of study on unsaturated soils at home and abroad, this paper covers an analysis on stability analysis method of expansive soils slope, determination of expansive soils strength, rational design of canal slope ratio and support, and forecast of landslide for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer.

Estimating minimum ecological water required of the western route first stage project of China＇s south-to-north water transfer scheme for water exporting rivers

It is well known that there is abundant water resources in basin of the Yangtze River, the first largest river in China, which is mainly located in Southern China. However, water resources is very scarce in the basin of the Yellow River, which is mainly located in Northern China. So the western route project of south-north water transfer scheme （WRP-SNWTS） aims to transfer water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River. The area of WRP-SNWT, located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the main areas of Sichuan and the marginal areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has sufficient water resources but fragile ecology and environment. Therefore, it is necessary for WRP-SNWT to analyze the ecology water required. Based on the planning principles of from low elevation to high elevation, from small to large, from short to long and from easy to difficulty, the WRP-SNWT will be constructed through three stage projects. The western route first stage project of the south-north water transfer scheme （WRFST-SNWTS） is planned to transfer 4×10^9m^3/a from six tributaries of the Yalong river and from Dadu river to Jiaqu of Yellow River.. Daqu river and Niqu river are the branches of Xianshui river. Sequ river, Duke river, Make river and Ake river are the branches of Dadu river, which account for 65-70% of the total river run-off. It need more research and the rest run-off can satisfy channel ecology water required. According to analysis ecological water required which mainly satisfy for aquicolous biology in water-exporting region, such as low air temperature. Fish and aquicolous biology main living from May to August, and rivers are iced up from December to March of next year, ecology water required mainly for fish and aquicolous biology. The flow criterion of Tennant method is modified. The ecology water required of WRFSP-SNWTS is estimated by the flow data of Zhuwo gauging station, Zhuba gauging station, Chuosijia gauging station and Zumuzu gauging station. The result show that the ecology water required calculated by modified Tennant less 1 l percent than that of Tennant. This estimating result can supply more water resources for transferring to Yellow River. Meanwhile, this can supply gist for research transferring water of WRFSP-SNWTS.

Spatio-temporal distribution of phytoplankton in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, a water source area for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Middle Route), China

One of the water source areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is the Danjiangkou Reservoir （DJKR）. To understand seasonal variation in phytoplankton composition, abundance and distribution in the DJKR area before water diversion, as well as to estimate potential risks of water quality after water diversion, we conducted an investigation on phytoplankton in the DJKR from August 2008 to May 2009. The investigation included 10 sampling sites, each with four depths of 0.5, 5, 10, and 20 m. In this study, 117 taxa belonging to 76 genera were identified, consisting of diatoms （39 taxa）, green algae （47 taxa）, blue-green algae （19 taxa）, and others （12 taxa）. Annual average phytoplankton abundance was 2.01×10^6 ind./L, and the highest value was 14.72 ×10^6 ind/L （at site 3 in August 2008）. Phytoplankton abundance in front of the Danjiangkou Dam （DJKD） was higher than that of the Danjiang Reservoir Basin. Phytoplankton distribution showed a vertical declining trend from 0.5 m to 20 m at most sites in August 2008 （especially at sites of 1, 2, 4 and 10）, but no distinct pattern in other sampling months. In December 2008 and March 2009, Stephanodiseus sp. was the most abundant species, amounting to 55.23% and 72.34%, respectively. We propose that high abundance ofStephanodiscus sp. may have contributed greatly to the frequent occurrence of Stephanodiscus sp. blooms in middle-low reaches of the Hanjiang River during the early spring of 2009. In comparison with previous studies conducted from 1992 to 2006, annual average phytoplankton density, green algae and blue-green algae species, as well as major nutrient concentrations increased, while phytoplankton diversity indices declined. This indicates a gradual decline in water quality. More research should be conducted and countermeasures taken to prevent further deterioration of water quality in the DJKR.

Critical chain construction with multi-resource constraints based on portfolio technology in South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.

Wet-Dry Runoff Correlation in Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,China

The Western Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an important trans-basin diversion project to transfer water from the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries （water-exporting area）, to the upstream of the Yellow River （water- importing area）. The long-term hydrologieal data from 14 stream gauging stations in the Western Route area and techniques including the pre-whitening approach, non-parametric test, Bayes, law, variance analysis extrapolation, and Wavelet Analysis are applied to identify the streamflow eharacteristics and trends, streamflow time series cross-correlations, wetness-dryness encountering probability, and periodicities that occurred over the last 50 years. The results show that the water-exporting area, water- importing area, and the streteh downstream of the water-exporting have synehronization in high-low flow relationship, whereas they display non- synchronization in long-term evolution. This corresponds to the complicated and variable climate of the plateau region. There is no obvious increasing or decreasing trend in runoff at any gauging station. The best hydrological eompensation probability for rivers where water is diverted is about 25% to lO%, and those rivers influenced significantly by diversion are the Jinsha and Yalong rivers. Proper planning and design of compensation reservoirs for the water-exporting area and stretch downstream of the water- exporting area can increase the hydrological compensation possibility from water-exporting area to the water-importing area, and reduce the impact on the stretch of river downstream of the water- exporting area.

Land Cover Changes and Drivers in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China from 2000 to 2015

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.

Evolution trend of the water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project in China

To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.