Insights into some large-scale landslides in southeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The southeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(SMQTP)is of a typical large landslide-prone area due to intense tectonic activity,deeply incised valleys,high geostress and frequent earthquakes.To gain insights into large landslides in southeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,an area covering 3.34×105 km2 that extends 80e150 km on both sides of the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridors(G318)was used to examine the spatial distribution and corresponding characteristics of landslides.The results showed that the study area contains at least 629 large landslides that are mainly concentrated on 7 zones(zones IeVII).Zones IeVII are in the southern section of the Longmenshan fault zone(with no large river)and sections with Dadu River,Jinsha River,Lancang River,Nujiang River and Yarlung Zangbo River.There are more landslides in the Jinsha River section(totaling 186 landslides)than the other sections.According to the updated Varnes classification,408 large landslides(64.9%)were recognized and divided into 4 major types,i.e.flows(275 cases),slides(58 cases),topples(44 cases)and slope deformations(31 cases).Flows,which consist of rock avalanches and iceerock avalanches,are the most common landslide type.Large landslide triggers(178 events,28.3%)are also recognized,and earthquakes may be the most common trigger.Due to the limited data,these landslide type classifications and landslide triggers are perhaps immature,and further systematic analysis is needed.

Joint Inversion of the 3D P Wave Velocity Structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle under the Southeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau Using Regional Earthquake and Teleseismic Data

The special seismic tectonic environment and frequent seismicity in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau show that this area is an ideal location to study the present tectonic movement and background of strong earthquakes in China's Mainland and to predict future strong earthquake risk zones. Studies of the structural environment and physical characteristics of the deep structure in this area are helpful to explore deep dynamic effects and deformation field characteristics, to strengthen our understanding of the roles of anisotropy and tectonic deformation and to study the deep tectonic background of the seismic origin of the block＇s interior. In this paper, the three-dimensional （3D） P-wave velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle under the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is obtained via observational data from 224 permanent seismic stations in the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces and from 356 mobile China seismic arrays in the southern section of the north-south seismic belt using a joint inversion method of the regional earthquake and teleseismic data. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the P-wave velocity anomalies in the shallow upper crust is closely related to the surface geological structure, terrain and lithology. Baoxing and Kangding, with their basic volcanic rocks and volcanic clastic rocks, present obvious high-velocity anomalies. The Chengdu Basin shows low-velocity anomalies associated with the Quaternary sediments. The Xichang Mesozoic Basin and the Butuo Basin are characterised by low- velocity anomalies related to very thick sedimentary layers. The upper and middle crust beneath the Chuan-Dian and Songpan-Ganzi Blocks has apparent lateral heterogeneities, including low-velocity zones of different sizes. There is a large range of low-velocity layers in the Songpan-Ganzi Block and the sub-block northwest of Sichuan Province, showing that the middle and lower crust is relatively weak. The Sichuan Basin, which is located in the western margin of the Yangtze platform, shows high-velocity characteristics. The results also reveal that there are continuous low-velocity layer distributions in the middle and lower crust of the Daliangshan Block and that the distribution direction of the low-velocity anomaly is nearly SN, which is consistent with the trend of the Daliangshan fault. The existence of the low-velocity layer in the crust also provides a deep source for the deep dynamic deformation and seismic activity of the Daliangshan Block and its boundary faults. The results of the 3D P-wave velocity structure show that an anomalous distribution of high-density, strong-magnetic and high-wave velocity exists inside the crust in the Panxi region. This is likely related to late Paleozoic mantle plume activity that led to a large number of mafic and ultra-mafic intrusions into the crust. In the crustal doming process, the massive intrusion of mantle-derived material enhanced the mechanical strength of the crustal medium. The P-wave velocity structure also revealed that the upper mantle contains a low-velocity layer at a depth of 80-120 km in the Panxi region. The existence of deep faults in the Panxi region, which provide conditions for transporting mantle thermal material into the crust, is the deep tectonic background for the area＇s strong earthquake activity.

3D v_P and v_S models of southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau from joint inversion of body-wave arrival times and surface-wave dispersion data

A new 3D velocity model of the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern （SE） margin of the Tibetan plateau was obtained by joint inversion of body- and sur- face-wave data. For the body-wave data, we used 7190 events recorded by 102 stations in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The surface-wave data consist of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves obtained from ambient noise cross-correlation analysis recorded by a dense array in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The joint inversion clearly improves the Vs model because it is constrained by both data types. The results show that at around 10 km depth there are two low-velocity anomalies embedded within three high-velocity bodies along the Longmenshan fault system. These high-velocity bodies correspond well with the Precambrian massifs, and the two located to the northeast of 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake are associated with high fault slip areas during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock gap between 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with low-velocity anomalies, which also acts as a barrier zone for ruptures of two earthquakes. Generally large earthquakes （M 〉 5） in the region occurring from 2008 to 2015 are located around the high-velocity zones, indicating that they may act as asperities for these large earthquakes. Joint inversion results also clearly show that there exist low-velocity or weak zones in the mid-lower crust, which are not evenly distributed beneath the SE margin of Tibetan plateau.

New Discovery of Holocene Activity along the Weixi-Qiaohou Fault in Southeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau and its Neotectonic Significance

Objective The lateral extrusion eastward of the Tibetan Plateau leads to the formation of the Sichuan–Yunnan block, which is the most representative active block in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, characterized by strong and frequent seismicity(Li Ping et al., 1975; Zhang Peizhen et al., 2003; Li Yong et al., 2017). Its eastern boundary is composed of sinistral faults including the Xianshuihe, Xiaojiang faults, etc., and the western

New insights of the Cenozoic Rotational Deformation of Crustal Blocks on the Southeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau and its Tectonic Implications

Objective The lateral extrusion of southeastern edge of the crustal materials around the Tibetan Plateau since the Oligocene is believed to be one of the main inducements of-1300 km latitudinal crustal convergence in the Tibetan Plateau, since the collision of India and Eurasia in the Paleogene. Two end-member models were used to describe the process of lateral extrusion of crustal material on the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The ＂tectonic escape＂ model suggests the Indochina Block, Chuandian Fragment and Shan-Thai Block have experienced lateral extrusion along strike-slip fault systems, and the ＂crustal flow＂ model suggests that the upper crust has undergone southeastward escape in the form of ductile deformation, driven by viscous lower crustal flow channels. In addition, the GPS observations surrounding the Tibetan Plateau indicate that crustal materials currently experience clockwise rotation around the Eastern Himalaya syntaxis. This work conducted paleomagnetic studies in the Cretaceous and Paleogene red-beds along the southeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau,

Modeling the Dynamic Gravity Variations of Northeastern Margin of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau by Using Bicubic Spline Interpolation Function

In this paper, the spatial-temporal gravity variation patterns of the northeastern margin of Qinghal-Xizang （Tibet） Plateau in 1992 - 2001 are modeled using bicubic spline interpolation functions and the relations of gravity change with seismicity and tectonic movement are discussed preliminarily. The results show as follows： ① Regional gravitational field changes regularly and the gravity abnormity zone or gravity concentration zone appears in the earthquake preparation process; ②In the significant time period, the gravity variation shows different features in the northwest, southeast and northeast parts of the surveyed region respectively, with Lanzhou as its boundary;③The gravity variation distribution is basically identical to the strike of tectonic fault zone of the region, and the contour of gravity variation is closely related to the fault distribution.

Seismic Strain Energy Release of Active Faults in the Southeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Using the methods of the Gutenberg magnitude energy empirical formula and the Benioff seismic strain energy release curve,we make a systematic study on seismic strain energy release of historical earthquakes in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1500.This paper provides a periodic table of the earthquake strain energy release in the fault zones and the fault block areas.The study shows that seismic strain energy release is strong in the east and south,and weak in the west and north.The overall seismic strain energy release of the Yushu-Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system is consistent with the quasi-periodic pattern.The seismic cycle of some fault zones and fault block areas shows synchronization to a certain extent.The risk cannot be ignored in the current large release period of seismic strain energy in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.Local seismic risk analysis shows that seismic risk is very high on the Anninghe-Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones.These dangerous zones need follow-up research.In future,it is necessary to combine different research methods to improve the reliability of seismic risk assessment.

Crustal Structure of the Chuan-Dian Block Revealed by Deep Seismic Sounding and its Implications for the Outward Expansion of the East Tibetan Plateau

The Chuan-Dian Block(CDB)is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,with a complex geological structure and active regional faults.The present tectonic condition with strong crustal deformation is closely related to the ongoing collision of the India and Eurasia plates since 65 Ma.The study of the crustal structure of this area is key to revealing the evolution and deep geodynamics of the lateral collision zone of the Tibetan Plateau.Deep seismic sounding is the most efficient method with which to unravel the velocity structure of the whole crust.Since the 1980s,19 deep seismic sounding profiles have been captured within the CDB area.In this study,we systematically integrate the research results of the 19 profiles in this area,then image the 3D crustal velocity,by sampling with a 5 km spacing and 2D/3D Kriging interpolation.The results show the following.(1)The Moho depth in the study area deepens from 30 km in the south to 66 km in the north,whereas there is no apparent variation from west to east.The Pn wave velocity is higher in stable tectonic units,such as 7.95 km/s in the Lanping-Simao block and 7.94 km/s in the western margin of the Yangtze block,than in active or mobile tectonic units,such as 7.81 km/s in the Baoshan block,7.72 km/s in the Tengchong block and 7.82 km/s in the Zhongdian block.(2)The crustal nature of the Tengchong block,the northern Lanping-Simao block and the Zhongdian block reflects a type of orogenic belt,having relatively strong tectonic activities,whereas the crustal nature of the central Lanping-Simao block and the western margin of the Yangtze block represents a type of platform.The different features of the upper-middle crust velocity,Moho depth and Pn wave velocity to both sides of the Red River fault zone and the Xianshuihe fault zone,reflect that they are clearly ultra-crustal.(3)Based on the distribution of the low velocity zones in the crust,the crustal material of the Tibetan Plateau is flowing in a NW–SE direction to the north of 26°N and to the west of 101°E,then diverting to flowing eastwards to the east of 101°E.

青藏高原东南缘自然地理对铁路交通廊道提出的挑战

位于青藏高原东南缘的川藏交通廊道将面临极其复杂的工程环境,全线复杂结构桥梁、超长深埋隧道众多、长大坡道客货共线运行,使其安全高效建设和长期稳定运营面临巨大挑战。首先阐释青藏高原东南缘地形地貌、气候环境、新构造活动以及自然灾害等方面的特征与规律;深入分析高原东南缘独特自然地理对川藏交通廊道提出的挑战及应对策略;最后提出如何改进和强化轨道结构来应对面临的挑战。研究结果表明:①沿线区域大地貌格局以高山峡谷为主体,具山高、坡陡、谷深的险峻地形和极致地貌景观;②沿线各地具有气候垂直分带明显和区域差异大等特点,灾害性天气如雷暴、冰雹、大风、大雪及暴雨频现;③沿线行经青藏高原周缘挤压转换造山带以及向东和南东方向“逃逸”的侧向挤出地体群,区域断裂构造极为发育,断裂活动性强,具有强构造应力和高地热;④沿线区域为高灾害风险区,尤以强震、地震滑坡、高位远程滑坡、冰湖溃决以及大型滑坡堵江事件等致灾因子危险性高;⑤建议采取增加钢轨重量和采用合金轨、强化无缝线路结构稳定性以及轮轨系统动力学性能合理匹配等措施改进和强化现行轨道结构。

青藏高原东南缘金沙江下游新生代构造与地貌演化

青藏高原东南缘发育数十万平方千米的广阔地貌过渡带与大面积低起伏地貌面,独特的地貌提供了解读高原构造拓展与地表隆升时间、过程以及机制的理想窗口。为揭示青藏高原东南缘新生代构造变形响应和地貌演化过程,通过构造解析、构造地貌以及低温热年代学数据分析对金沙江下游流域进行综合研究。结果表明青藏高原东南缘早在始新世即已处于北西向为主的区域性挤压条件下而发生广泛褶皱变形。尽管始新世存在区域性变形响应,但青藏高原东南缘金沙江下游地区在古近纪为低海拔丘陵地貌,地表隆升幅度极为有限。晚渐新世—早中新世研究区总体处于长期的低剥蚀速率环境,促进了低海拔平缓地貌的形成。晚新近纪以来,青藏高原东南缘发生区域性缩短变形与显著地表隆升,大型水系同步下蚀,共同塑造形成现今较高海拔的低起伏地貌面与深切峡谷并存的特征性地貌。研究结果支持青藏高原东南缘晚新近纪以来的隆升与地壳构造缩短及增厚密切相关,而中下地壳塑性流动增厚机制并非必不可少。

小江断裂带巧家段晚第四纪走滑速率研究

鲜水河-小江左旋走滑断裂系是调节青藏高原东南部物质向东南挤出的大型边界断裂。云南巧家断裂作为小江断裂带北段,其晚第四纪走滑速率是认识川滇地块东部边界应变调节方式的关键。本文利用无人机航摄和地面激光扫描技术,获取了该断裂段穿过金沙江河谷区红路和蒙姑两处的高分辨率地形数据,恢复出断层错动T2和T3两期阶地陡坎上缘的左旋位错量分别为120±5~128±1 m和193±1~202±1 m。根据T3中次生碳酸盐的AMS-14C法测年结果,结合已有的类似阶地年龄数据,并经气候曲线校正后认为,区域上T2和T3被废弃应分别发生在冰后期和末次盛冰期末期,时间为8.5~11.2 ka BP和18.6~21.4 ka BP。据此估算,小江断裂带巧家段的晚第四纪平均走滑速率为10~13 mm/a。进一步统计分析小江断裂带的晚第四纪走滑速率,发现巧家至宜良以北的段落,总体保持着10~15 mm/a的高走滑速率。但从宜良向南,断裂走滑速率出现了分段递减的特征,至建水以南快速减小到中-北段的近十分之一。小江断裂带中-北段的高走滑速率以及向南的分段式递减现象,反映在宜良以北,小江断裂带的走滑剪切作用是调节川滇地块向东南旋转-挤出运动的主要方式,但向南伴随变形分解作用,调节方式转变为了伸展、旋转和逆冲等多种方式共存的复杂形式。因此,进一步精细化定量限定川滇地块东部边界断裂的应变分解作用,是深入认识青藏高原物质挤出方式及其机制的关键。

MT约束的青藏高原东南缘上地幔热结构研究——以兰坪-贵阳剖面为例

青藏高原东南缘是青藏高原软弱物质运移的关键位置,研究其深部结构有助于理解青藏高原的扩张机制.本文利用穿过青藏高原东南缘的一条起始于兰坪—思茅块体,穿过川滇菱形块体,终止于华南块体的长约750 km的大地电磁测深(MT)剖面的电阻率结构,基于上地幔矿物和熔融体温度与电导率的关系,获得了研究区上地幔温度结构与熔融百分比分布.结果表明,采用随深度变化的含水熔融上地幔矿物组分模型才能合理地获得整个上地幔温度;上地幔全岩含水量约4.69(40 km深度)~0.13 wt%(150 km深度),矿物熔融百分比约0~1.4%之间,并在70 km深度附近出现了较明显的局部熔融带;上地幔温度位于400~1300℃之间,随深度加深而逐渐增加;70 km以浅的温度表现出相对强烈的横向变化,且川滇和兰坪—思茅块体的上地幔温度和矿物熔融百分比的深度平均值明显高于华南块体.

Source rupture characteristics of the September 5,2022 Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquake at the Xianshuihe fault zone in southwest China

On September 5,2022,at Beijing time 12:52 p.m.,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake struck Luding County,GarzêTibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The epicenter of the earthquake was at the intersection of the Sichuan-Yunnan,Bayankala,and South China blocks.The tectonic background is extremely complex,and strong earthquakes occur frequently.Based on a predetermined focal location and focal mechanism solution for the earthquake,we reversed the focal depth and rupture process of the earthquake by fitting the teleseismic P and SH waves recorded by the global seismic network.The results show that the focal depth is 16 km,with the main rupture having a length of about 45 km near the epicenter,with a maximum displacement of 1.02 m.Although the rupture mainly propagates from the north–northwest(NNW)to the south–southeast(SSE)along the fault strike,there is a small-scale rupture slip zone at shallow depths in the north–northeast(NNE)direction along the epicenter of the seismogenic fault.This rupture image corresponds to the cluster distribution of aftershocks in the NNW and SSE directions starting from the epicenter,corresponding to the distribution of recorded landslides.The earthquake occurred on the Moxi fault,located in the southeastern section of the Xianshuihe fault.The major tectonic feature in this area is the southeastward movement of the Chuandian block relative to the Bayanhar block.

青藏高原东南缘盐源—宁蒗盆地的三维大地电磁成像及对油气资源勘探的启示

盐源—宁蒗盆地位于青藏高原东南缘,沉积了志留系龙马溪组和泥盆系坡脚组两套富有机质页岩,为油气的富集成藏奠定了基本条件。然而,该盆地内的富有机质页岩层系的分布及岩体的发育情况不清楚,严重制约了该地区油气资源前景的认识。为此,作者在盐源—宁蒗盆地部署了网度为10km×20 km大地电磁测深工作,获得了高质量的大地电磁数据集,并利用三维反演构建了该盆地高精度的三维电性结构模型。在此基础上.

青藏高原东南缘地震活动与地壳运动所反映的块体特征及其动力来源

通过分析青藏高原东南缘活动断裂带的活动特征和GPS资料显示的现今地壳形变场,辅以历史地震及地表破裂、震源机制解类型等资料,将青藏高原东南缘地区分成了11个次级块体.其中包括了西秦岭次级块体、阿坝次级块体、龙门山次级块体、藏东次级块体、雅江次级块体,香格里拉次级块体、滇中次级块体、保山次级块体、景谷次级块体、勐腊次级块体和西盟次级块体;并利用这些次级块体内的GPS站点速率计算出了这些块体现今运动情况及各块体之间断裂的滑动速率,分析认为各次级块体均受到了一种来自其相邻块体的主要应力作用而发生了旋转,其中保山次级块体、藏东次级块体、雅江次级块体、香格里拉次级块体、滇中次级块体的旋转尤为显著;同样,相邻块体之间的边界断裂带也呈现了相应的挤压或拉张活动特征,而藏东次级块体与雅江次级块体、雅江次级块体与滇中次级块体之间的挤压最为明显.利用上述结果,本文讨论了该地区的现今地壳形变特征,认为刚性块体的挤出作用与重力滑塌作用并存于该区域内,下地壳"管道流"的拖曳作用是该地区刚性块体挤出作用和重力滑塌的主要原因,另外缅甸板块相对于自身的逆时针旋转作用在其北部引起的拉张作用也是重要因素之一.

青藏高原东南缘大理地区近地层微气象特征及能量交换分析

利用2008年1月-2010年2月青藏高原东南缘大理站的长期观测资料,初步分析了该地区近地层基本气象要素、辐射通量和湍流通量的日变化和季节变化。结果表明,各参数均表现出显著的日循环结构和干、湿季变化特征。近地层的风速、气温和动量通量等均在早晨最小、午后最大;相对湿度、地表温度等均是湿季高于干季。近地层2m高度处的盛行风向,白天以东东南风和东风为主,夜间以静风和偏西风为主,并且盛行风向转变与日出、日落时间有较好的对应关系。地表辐射四分量最高值出现在正午,最低值出现在日出前。除向上短波辐射通量干季大于湿季外,其他辐射分量都是湿季大于干季。地表反照率表现出非对称的"U"形分布,早晨最大、傍晚次之及中午最小。早晚地表反照率差异可能是由于露水、东西两面山体不同程度遮挡以及云的影响造成的。感热、潜热通量全年有相似的日变化过程,变化幅度随季节变化,但潜热通量明显大于感热通量,表明地气热量交换中,感热作用小,潜热输送占主导地位。感热通量一天之中约在20:00出现最小值,这主要是由于风速减弱和地气温差回升影响热量交换系数造成的。地面对大气的加热作用明显,主要是以潜热方式加热大气;地面全年均为大气热源,白天表现为强热源,夜间则表现为较弱的冷源。

川西理塘断裂带的空间展布与第四纪左旋走滑活动的遥感影像标志

遥感技术具有宏观性、直观性、时效性以及不受其他外部因素制约的特点,在活动断裂的研究中具有很大的优势。文章在系统总结活动断裂的遥感影像标志的基础上,综合利用Landsat ETM、ALOS、Google earth及ASTER GDEM(ASTER全球数字高程模型)等影像资料,结合前人研究成果及关键地段的野外实地考察,对展布于青藏高原东南缘之藏东-川西高原地区的理塘左旋走滑活动断裂带进行了详细分析与研究,结果显示该断裂带整体呈不连续的北西-南东向弧形展布,全长可达400km左右。根据该断裂的几何展布对其进行分段,自北西向南东可分五段,依次为:卡贡断裂、章德断裂、毛垭坝断裂、理塘断裂及康嘎-德巫断裂。综合分析不同断裂段的影像特征、错断地貌特征及现代地震活动情况表明,整条断裂带南段的毛垭坝-理塘-德巫断裂段的影像特征最明显、最连续,活动性明显较北段显著,这一特征可能暗示青藏高原内部物质向东挤出的速率有自西向东加快的趋势。

青藏高原东南缘气象要素Anusplin和Cokriging空间插值对比分析

选取地形起伏度巨大的青藏高原东南缘为研究区,利用该研究区96个气象站点,结合高程数据,分别采用Cokriging和Anusplin空间插值方法,获取2010年250 m分辨率的年均温度和年累计降水插值曲面。并采用交叉验证方法对比Anusplin与Cokriging插值精度,分析了误差的空间分布特征,重点对比两种插值曲面差异较大的区域精度优劣,评价两种方法在复杂地区的适用性。结果表明,Anusplin在复杂地表的插值表现优于Cokriging,其中Anusplin气温插值的均方差仅为0.82℃,而Cokriging的均方差为1.45℃;两者的降水插值精度基本一致,但Anusplin在气象要素空间异质性大的区域优于Cokriging。因此,与Cokriging相比,Anusplin更适合青藏高原东南缘复杂地表气象要素空间插值。

青藏高原东南缘构造旋转的古地磁学证据

本文在总结青藏高原东南缘近年来地质研究进展的基础上,从古地磁学的角度讨论其新生代以来的构造运动特征.结果表明:相对稳定的欧亚大陆,新生代以来山泰地块发生了约20°～80°顺时针旋转,局部地区旋转量甚至高达135°,且中部地区的旋转量明显高于南北地区;印支地块经历了～30°的顺时针旋转;川滇地块的顺时针旋转量沿102°E经度线由南向北由30°逐渐减小;另一方面,古地磁数据还揭示出山泰地块新生代以来发生了～8°的南向滑移运动.旋转量随时间的变化表明主要构造旋转发生在始新世与中中新世之间,与哀牢山—红河断裂的左行走滑时间相一致.这表明青藏高原东南缘的新生代构造运动具有差异性和复杂性,现今国际流行的挤出逃逸、地壳缩短增厚及下地壳流模式均有其局限性.值得注意的是,青藏高原东南缘可靠的新生代古地磁数据在时空分布上的严重不足,制约了我们对印度与欧亚大陆碰撞在青藏高原东南缘的运动学响应过程的深入探讨和正确理解.因此,进一步对该地区新生代地层开展深入细致的古地磁学等综合研究,无疑具有重要的科学意义.

青藏高原东南缘及邻区近年来地震b值特征

基于青藏高原东南缘空间数据库及系统建立成果的基础上,综合整理青藏高原东南缘地区的1980—2013年地震信息、地震地质资料及国家基础地理信息,通过Arcgis软件及其脚本编写应用,利用空间模型初步实现了区域内1980—2013年地震活动信息的地统计分析。依据区域地震b值与地壳内部应力分布状态的负相关原理,利用b值进行大面积空间与时间扫描方法对青藏高原东南缘当前应力分布特点进行研究。以2°×2°为单元网格将研究区分为若干区,分别对其进行分时间、分单元b值计算,针对重点低b值区形成时空曲线总结大地震发生前b值曲线的时空规律,并结合之前划出的地震围空区对本区地震危险性进行综合性的中长期预测,结果表明:1汶川地震、芦山地震验证大震发生前后b值时间曲线会有水平—负增长—正增长—负增长—水平的曲线变化;2地震震级越大b值负增长的低值危险区形成时间越早,持续时间越久;3汶川大地震前川北出现大面积低b值异常区;4目前b值低值区持续时间较长的区域有:东喜马拉雅构造结、玉树—甘孜断裂、安宁河断裂—则木河断裂—鲜水河断裂—小江断裂和畹町断裂—南汀河断裂,澜沧断裂—景洪断裂与地震空区危险性预测有较多重叠。