Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we invest...Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.展开更多
This paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of heavy rainfall in China from 1951 to 2000.The results showed that since 1980s,the occurrence frequency of rainfall and major storm disasters increased signi...This paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of heavy rainfall in China from 1951 to 2000.The results showed that since 1980s,the occurrence frequency of rainfall and major storm disasters increased significantly in Sichuan Province.In 1990s,Hebei heavy rainfall frequency and major storm disasters had increased remarkably.Heavy rainfall occurred mainly from May to August.The heavy storm largely took place from April to September.Catastrophic rains occurred in October in 1990s.Liaoning and Hubei Provinces had undergone the most amounts of heavy storms in 1950s.Jiangxi Province had undergone the most amounts in 1960s and Shandong in 1970s,Sichuan in 1980s and Hebei in 1990s.展开更多
Based on the hourly observation data of heavy rainfall at Changbei Airport from 2011 to 2018,the main characteristics of heavy rainfall at the airport were analyzed. The results show that the heavy rainfall at Changbe...Based on the hourly observation data of heavy rainfall at Changbei Airport from 2011 to 2018,the main characteristics of heavy rainfall at the airport were analyzed. The results show that the heavy rainfall at Changbei Airport often occurred from April to August,most in June,mostly from the evening to midnight. Visibility and runway visual range( RVR) were often affected by the heavy rainfall,but the proportion of weather processes below the take-off and landing standards was relatively small. The main influencing factors of heavy rainfall were low vortex shear,front,high trough and subtropical high edge. The changing characteristics of meteorological elements in the high-centroid rainfall processes were more obvious,and they had greater impact on flight.展开更多
The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast China.Environmental conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shea...The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast China.Environmental conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more challenging.Based on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit distance.In this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are synthesized.It is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the CVC.The highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast quadrant.This can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this region.Furthermore,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the CVC.When NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water vapor.Additionally,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these environments.These findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.展开更多
Water vapor content, instability, and convergence conditions are the key to short-duration heavy rainfall forecasting. It is necessary to understand the large-scale atmospheric environment characteristics of short- du...Water vapor content, instability, and convergence conditions are the key to short-duration heavy rainfall forecasting. It is necessary to understand the large-scale atmospheric environment characteristics of short- duration heavy rainfall by investigating the distribution of physical parameters for different hourly rainfall intensities. The observed hourly rainfall data in China and the NCEP final analysis (FNL) data during 1 May and 30 September from 2002 to 2009 are used. NCEP FNL data are 6-hourly, resulting in sample sizes of 1573370, 355346, and 11401 for three categories of hourly rainfall (P) of no precipitation (P 〈 0.1 mm h-1), ordinary precipitation (0.1≤ P 〈 20 mm h-1), and short-duration heavy rainfall (P ≥ 20.0 mm h-1), respectively, by adopting a temporal matching method. The results show that the total precipitable water (PWAT) is the best parameter indicating the hourly rainfall intensity. A PWAT of 28 mm is necessary for any short-duration heavy rainfall. The possibility of short-duration heavy rainfall occurrence increases with PWAT, and a PWAT of 59 mm is nearly sufficient. The specific humidity is a better indicator than relative humidity. Both 700- and 850-hPa relative humidity greater than 80% could be used to determine whether or not it is going to rain, but could not be used to estimate the rainfall intensity. Temperature and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature are also reasonable indicators of short-duration heavy rainfall. Among the atmospheric instability parameters, the best lifted index (BLI) performs best on the short- duration rainfall discrimination; the next best is the K index (KI). The three rainfall categories are not well recognized by total totals (TT) or the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa (DT85). Three- quarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred with BLI less than -0.9, while no short-duration heavy rainfall occurred when BLI was greater than 2.6. The minimum threshold of KI was 28.1 for short-duration heavy rainfall. The importance of dynamic conditions was well demonstrated by the 925- and 850-hPa divergence. The representativeness of 925-hPa divergence is stronger than that of 850 hPa. Three-quarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred under a negative divergence environment. However, both the best convective potential energy (BCAPE) and vertical wind shear were unable to discriminate the hourly rainfall intensities.展开更多
Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV),as an important indicator of atmospheric water vapor,can be derived from Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)observations with the advantages of high precision and all-weather capacit...Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV),as an important indicator of atmospheric water vapor,can be derived from Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)observations with the advantages of high precision and all-weather capacity.GNSS-derived PWV with a high spatiotemporal resolution has become an important source of observations in mete-orology,particularly for severe weather conditions,for water vapor is not well sampled in the current meteorological observing systems.In this study,an empirical atmospheric weighted mean temperature(Tm)model for Guilin is estab-lished using the radiosonde data from 2012 to 2017.Then,the observations at 11 GNSS stations in Guilin are used to investigate the spatiotemporal features of GNSS-derived PWV under the heavy rainfalls from June to July 2017.The results show that the new Tm model in Guilin has better performance with the mean bias and Root Mean Square(RMS)of−0.51 and 2.12 K,respectively,compared with other widely used models.Moreover,the GNSS PWV estimates are validated with the data at Guilin radiosonde station.Good agreements are found between GNSS-derived PWV and radiosonde-derived PWV with the mean bias and RMS of−0.9 and 3.53 mm,respectively.Finally,an investigation on the spatiotemporal characteristics of GNSS PWV during heavy rainfalls in Guilin is performed.It is shown that variations of PWV retrieved from GNSS have a direct relationship with the in situ rainfall measurements,and the PWV increases sharply before the arrival of a heavy rainfall and decreases to a stable state after the cease of the rainfall.It also reveals the moisture variation in several regions of Guilin during a heavy rainfall,which is significant for the moni-toring of rainfalls and weather forecast.展开更多
An extra-large landslide occurred on June 19,2021,on the footwall slope of the Nanfen Open-pit Iron Mine in Liaoning Province,China,with a volume of approximately 1.2×107 m3.To elucidate the causative factors,dev...An extra-large landslide occurred on June 19,2021,on the footwall slope of the Nanfen Open-pit Iron Mine in Liaoning Province,China,with a volume of approximately 1.2×107 m3.To elucidate the causative factors,development process,and destructive mechanisms of this catastrophic landslide,comprehensive field tests,investigations,and laboratory experiments were conducted.Initially,the heavily weathered rock mass of the slope was intersected by faults and joint fissures,facilitating rainwater infiltration.Moreover,the landslide contained a substantial clay mineral with highly developed micro-cracks and micro-pores,exhibiting strong water-absorption properties.As moisture content increased,the rock mass underwent softening,resulting in reduced strength.Ultimately,continuous heavy rainfall infiltration amplified the slope's weight,diminishing the weak structural plane's strength,leading to fracture propagation,slip plane penetration,and extensive tensile-shear and uplift failure of the slope.The study highlights poor geological conditions as the decisive factor for this landslide,with continuous heavy rainfall as the triggering factor.Presently,adverse environmental factors persistently affect the landslide,and deformation and failure continue to escalate.Hence,it is imperative to urgently implement integrated measures encompassing slope reinforcement,monitoring,and early-warning to real-time monitor the landslide's deformation and deep mechanical evolution trends.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41975138,41905047,42030610)the High-level Science and Technology Journals Projects of Guangdong Province(2021B1212020016)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515010814,2021A1515011415)Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020M01)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)。
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.
文摘This paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of heavy rainfall in China from 1951 to 2000.The results showed that since 1980s,the occurrence frequency of rainfall and major storm disasters increased significantly in Sichuan Province.In 1990s,Hebei heavy rainfall frequency and major storm disasters had increased remarkably.Heavy rainfall occurred mainly from May to August.The heavy storm largely took place from April to September.Catastrophic rains occurred in October in 1990s.Liaoning and Hubei Provinces had undergone the most amounts of heavy storms in 1950s.Jiangxi Province had undergone the most amounts in 1960s and Shandong in 1970s,Sichuan in 1980s and Hebei in 1990s.
基金Supported by Meteorological Science and Technology Project of Jiangxi Province(17302005151714)。
文摘Based on the hourly observation data of heavy rainfall at Changbei Airport from 2011 to 2018,the main characteristics of heavy rainfall at the airport were analyzed. The results show that the heavy rainfall at Changbei Airport often occurred from April to August,most in June,mostly from the evening to midnight. Visibility and runway visual range( RVR) were often affected by the heavy rainfall,but the proportion of weather processes below the take-off and landing standards was relatively small. The main influencing factors of heavy rainfall were low vortex shear,front,high trough and subtropical high edge. The changing characteristics of meteorological elements in the high-centroid rainfall processes were more obvious,and they had greater impact on flight.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175017 and 42305013)China Meteorological Administration Special Innovation and Development Program(CXFZ2022J059,CXFZ2022J003,CXFZ2023J013,and CXFZ2024J021)+2 种基金China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team Fund(CMA2022ZD07)China Meteorological Administration Youth Innovation Team Fund(CMA2024QN05)Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2023Z019)。
文摘The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast China.Environmental conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more challenging.Based on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit distance.In this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are synthesized.It is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the CVC.The highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast quadrant.This can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this region.Furthermore,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the CVC.When NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water vapor.Additionally,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these environments.These findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.
基金Supported by the Meteorological Integration and Application of Key Techniques(CMAGJ2013Z04)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406002 and GYHY201206004)National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430106)
文摘Water vapor content, instability, and convergence conditions are the key to short-duration heavy rainfall forecasting. It is necessary to understand the large-scale atmospheric environment characteristics of short- duration heavy rainfall by investigating the distribution of physical parameters for different hourly rainfall intensities. The observed hourly rainfall data in China and the NCEP final analysis (FNL) data during 1 May and 30 September from 2002 to 2009 are used. NCEP FNL data are 6-hourly, resulting in sample sizes of 1573370, 355346, and 11401 for three categories of hourly rainfall (P) of no precipitation (P 〈 0.1 mm h-1), ordinary precipitation (0.1≤ P 〈 20 mm h-1), and short-duration heavy rainfall (P ≥ 20.0 mm h-1), respectively, by adopting a temporal matching method. The results show that the total precipitable water (PWAT) is the best parameter indicating the hourly rainfall intensity. A PWAT of 28 mm is necessary for any short-duration heavy rainfall. The possibility of short-duration heavy rainfall occurrence increases with PWAT, and a PWAT of 59 mm is nearly sufficient. The specific humidity is a better indicator than relative humidity. Both 700- and 850-hPa relative humidity greater than 80% could be used to determine whether or not it is going to rain, but could not be used to estimate the rainfall intensity. Temperature and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature are also reasonable indicators of short-duration heavy rainfall. Among the atmospheric instability parameters, the best lifted index (BLI) performs best on the short- duration rainfall discrimination; the next best is the K index (KI). The three rainfall categories are not well recognized by total totals (TT) or the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa (DT85). Three- quarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred with BLI less than -0.9, while no short-duration heavy rainfall occurred when BLI was greater than 2.6. The minimum threshold of KI was 28.1 for short-duration heavy rainfall. The importance of dynamic conditions was well demonstrated by the 925- and 850-hPa divergence. The representativeness of 925-hPa divergence is stronger than that of 850 hPa. Three-quarters of short-duration heavy rainfall occurred under a negative divergence environment. However, both the best convective potential energy (BCAPE) and vertical wind shear were unable to discriminate the hourly rainfall intensities.
基金the National Natural Foundation of China(41704027,41664002,41864002)the Guangxi Natural Science Foundation of China(2017GXNSFBA198139,2017GXNSFDA198016,2018GXNSFAA281182,2018GXNSFAA281279)the“Ba Gui Scholars”program of the provincial government of Guangxi,and the Open Fund of Hunan Natural Resources Investigation and Monitoring Engineering Technology Research Center(No:2020-9).
文摘Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV),as an important indicator of atmospheric water vapor,can be derived from Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)observations with the advantages of high precision and all-weather capacity.GNSS-derived PWV with a high spatiotemporal resolution has become an important source of observations in mete-orology,particularly for severe weather conditions,for water vapor is not well sampled in the current meteorological observing systems.In this study,an empirical atmospheric weighted mean temperature(Tm)model for Guilin is estab-lished using the radiosonde data from 2012 to 2017.Then,the observations at 11 GNSS stations in Guilin are used to investigate the spatiotemporal features of GNSS-derived PWV under the heavy rainfalls from June to July 2017.The results show that the new Tm model in Guilin has better performance with the mean bias and Root Mean Square(RMS)of−0.51 and 2.12 K,respectively,compared with other widely used models.Moreover,the GNSS PWV estimates are validated with the data at Guilin radiosonde station.Good agreements are found between GNSS-derived PWV and radiosonde-derived PWV with the mean bias and RMS of−0.9 and 3.53 mm,respectively.Finally,an investigation on the spatiotemporal characteristics of GNSS PWV during heavy rainfalls in Guilin is performed.It is shown that variations of PWV retrieved from GNSS have a direct relationship with the in situ rainfall measurements,and the PWV increases sharply before the arrival of a heavy rainfall and decreases to a stable state after the cease of the rainfall.It also reveals the moisture variation in several regions of Guilin during a heavy rainfall,which is significant for the moni-toring of rainfalls and weather forecast.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52074295)the State Key Laboratory for GeoMechanics and Deep Underground Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology,Beijing(Grant No.SKLGDUEK202217).
文摘An extra-large landslide occurred on June 19,2021,on the footwall slope of the Nanfen Open-pit Iron Mine in Liaoning Province,China,with a volume of approximately 1.2×107 m3.To elucidate the causative factors,development process,and destructive mechanisms of this catastrophic landslide,comprehensive field tests,investigations,and laboratory experiments were conducted.Initially,the heavily weathered rock mass of the slope was intersected by faults and joint fissures,facilitating rainwater infiltration.Moreover,the landslide contained a substantial clay mineral with highly developed micro-cracks and micro-pores,exhibiting strong water-absorption properties.As moisture content increased,the rock mass underwent softening,resulting in reduced strength.Ultimately,continuous heavy rainfall infiltration amplified the slope's weight,diminishing the weak structural plane's strength,leading to fracture propagation,slip plane penetration,and extensive tensile-shear and uplift failure of the slope.The study highlights poor geological conditions as the decisive factor for this landslide,with continuous heavy rainfall as the triggering factor.Presently,adverse environmental factors persistently affect the landslide,and deformation and failure continue to escalate.Hence,it is imperative to urgently implement integrated measures encompassing slope reinforcement,monitoring,and early-warning to real-time monitor the landslide's deformation and deep mechanical evolution trends.