Spatial-temporal Changes of Vegetation Cover in Guizhou Province, Southern China

Guizhou Province is an important karst area in the world and a fragile ecological area in China. Ecological risk assessment is very necessary to be conducted in this region. This study investigates different characteristics of the spatial-temporal changes of vegetation cover in Guizhou Province of Southern China using the data set of SPOT VEGETATION(1999–2015) at spatial resolution of 1-km and temporal resolution of 10-day. The coefficient of variation, the Theil-Sen median trend analysis, and the Mann-Kendall test are used to investigate the spatial-temporal change of vegetation cover and its future trend. Results show that: 1) the spatial distribution pattern of vegetation cover in Guizhou Plateau is high in the east whereas low in the west. The average annual normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from west to east is higher than that from south to north. 2) Average annual NDVI improved obviously in the past 17 years. The growth rate of average annual NDVI is 0.028/10 yr, which is slower than that of vegetation in the country(0.048/10 yr) from 1998 to 2007. Average annual NDVI in karst area is lower than that in non-karst area. However, the growing rate of average annual NDVI in karst area(0.030/10 yr) is faster than that in non-karst area(0.023/10 yr), indicating that vegetation coverage increases more rapidly in karst area. 3) Vegetation coverage in the study area is stable overall, but fluctuates in the local scales. 4) Vegetation coverage presents a continuous increasing trend. The Hurst exponent of NDVI in different vegetation types has an obvious threshold in various elevations. 5) The proportion of vegetation cover with sustainable increase is higher than that of vegetation cover with sustainable decrease. The improvement in vegetation cover may expand to most parts of the study area.

Quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics in the Zoige Plateau from 2001 to 2020

Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these vegetation dynamics remain unclear.Therefore,clarifying how and why the vegetation on the Zoige Plateau changed can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region.Here,we investigate NDVI trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation greenness and distinguish the relative effects of climate changes and human activities on vegetation changes by utilizing residual trend analysis and the Geodetector.We find a tendency of vegetation greening from 2001 to 2020,with significant greening accounting for 21.44%of the entire region.However,browning area expanded rapidly after 2011.Warmer temperatures are the primary driver of vegetation changes in the Zoige Plateau.Climatic variations and human activities were responsible for 65.57%and 34.43%of vegetation greening,and 39.14%and 60.86%of vegetation browning,respectively,with browning concentrated along the Yellow,Black and White Rivers.Compared to 2001-2010,the inhibitory effect of human activity and climate fluctuations on vegetation grew dramatically between 2011 and 2020.

Changes of coastline and tidal flat and its implication for ecological protection under human activities: Take China’s Bohai Bay as an example

The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecological environment changes and even global changes.Based on field measurements,combined with Linear Regression(LR)model and Inverse Distance Weighing(IDW)method,this paper presents detailed analysis on the change history and trend of the shoreline and tidal flat in Bohai Bay.The shoreline faces a high erosion chance under the action of natural factors,while the tidal flat faces a different erosion and deposition patterns in Bohai Bay due to the impact of human activities.The implication of change rule for ecological protection and recovery is also discussed.Measures should be taken to protect the coastal ecological environment.The models used in this paper show a high correlation coefficient between observed and modeling data,which means that this method can be used to predict the changing trend of shoreline and tidal flat.The research results of present study can provide scientific supports for future coastal protection and management.

Age Structure and Change Trend of Tobacco Farmers:A Case Study of Shashi Town,Liuyang City,Hunan Province

Taking the tobacco-growing area of Shashi Town,Liuyang City as the object,the number of registered,newly added and resigned tobacco farmers in each year,average age,number and proportion of tobacco farmers of different ages,number and proportion of tobacco farmers born in different eras,as well as planting scale and planting history of flue-cured tobacco in the last 10 years were analyzed statistically.The results showed that the number of tobacco farmers in Shashi Town showed a rapid decline trend from 2012 to 2018,while the average age continuously increased,and the average planting scale rose in a wave like way.From 2019 to 2021,the decline rate of the number of tobacco farmers slowed down,and the average planting scale continuously increased,while the aging of tobacco farmers accelerated.Meantime,the birth years of tobacco farmers were further concentrated in the 1960s,and they were mainly at the age of 50-59.The tobacco industry in Shashi Town of Liuyang City is facing the crisis of aging tobacco farmers and no successor of flue-cured tobacco planting,and it is predicted that the next 5-10 years will continue the change trend from 2019 to 2021.

Detecting Climate Change Trend, Size, and Change Point Date on Annual Maximum Time Series Rainfall Data for Warri, Nigeria

The study focused on the detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426, with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and 0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF) modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.

Comparative Analysis of Climatic Change Trend and Change-Point Analysis for Long-Term Daily Rainfall Annual Maximum Time Series Data in Four Gauging Stations in Niger Delta

The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.

Spatial-Temporal Changes of Soil Organic Carbon During Vegetation Recovery at Ziwuling, China

To probe the processes and mechanisms of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes during forest recovery, a 150-yearchronosequence study on SOC was conducted for various vegetation succession stages at the Ziwuling area, in the centralpart of the Loess Plateau, China. Results showed that during the 150 years of local vegetation rehabilitation SOC increasedsignificantly (P < 0.05) over time in the initial period of 55-59 years, but slightly decreased afterwards. Average SOCdensities for the 0-100 cm layer of farmland, grassland, shrubland and forest were 4.46, 5.05, 9.95, and 7.49 kg C m-3,respectively. The decrease in SOC from 60 to 150 years of abandonment implied that the soil carbon pool was a sink forCO2 before the shrubland stage and became a source in the later period. This change resulted from the spatially variedcomposition and structure of the vegetation. Vegetation recovery had a maximum effect on the surface (0-20 cm) SOCpool. It. was concluded that vegetation recovery on the Loess Plateau could result in significantly increased sequestrationof atmospheric CO2 in soil and vegetation, which was ecologically important for mitigating the increase of atmosphericconcentration of CO2 and for ameliorating the local eco-environment.

Tupu methods of spatial-temporal pattern on land use change:a case study in the Yellow River Delta

Comprehensive study on land-use change of spatial pattern and temporal process is the key component in LUCC study nowadays. Based on the theories and methods of Geo-information Tupu (Carto-methodology in Geo-information, CMGI), integration of spatial pattern and temporal processes of land-use change in the Yellow River Delta (YRD) are studied in the paper, which is supported by ERDAS and ARC/INFO software. The main contents include: (1) concept models of Tupu by spatial-temporal integration on land-use change, whose Tupu unit is synthesized by "Spatial·Attribute·Process" features and composed of relatively homogeneous geographical unit and temporal unit; (2) data sources and handling process, where four stages of spatial features in 1956, 1984, 1991, and 1996 are acquired; (3) integration of series of temporal-spatial Tupu, reconstruction series of "Arising" Tupu, spatial-temporal Process Tupu and the spatial temporal Pattern Tupu on land-use change by remap tables; (4) Pattern Tupu analysis on land-use change in YRD during 1956-1996; and (5) spatial difference of the Pattern Tupu analysis by dynamic Tupu units. The various landform units and seven sub-deltas generated by the Yellow River since 1855 are different. The Tupu analysis on land-use in the paper is a promising try on the comprehensive research of "spatial pattern of dynamic process" and "temporal process of spatial pattern" in LUCC research. The Tupu methodology would be a powerful and efficient tool on integrated studies of spatial pattern and temporal process in Geo-science.

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differences of Land Use Changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 1975-2005

Regional land use changes are an important part of global changes.The research on land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China attracts a lot of attention owing to the Three Gorges Dam building.The Three Gorges Reservoir Area becomes one of the important research areas.This study analyzed the transforming processes and traits of each land use type and the regional differences of land use changes during the past 30 years,summarized the distribution of different land use types in different buffer zones and regresses the equation areas and different buffer distances based on buffer analyses and regression analyses,and then analyzed the transforming rules in different buffer distances,got the optimal influence distances.The research results indicate that,(1) cultivated land lies at the northwest of the reservoir and was decreasing,however,the construction land was increasing,especially the urban construction land,a large number of land was flooded because of the reservoir water level rise;(2) urban area was sprawling quickly in developed and neighboring areas,and a great deal of cultivated land and a considerable amount of grassland were occupied;in the earlier time,rural settlements occupied lots of cultivated land and a sum of forestry land in the later time;(3) the optimum influenced distances for cultivated land and forestry land were 10-35 km,and for urban and rural settlements were in 5-20 km.Overall,this research can reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes during the 30 years,and it is helpful for urban planning and land use planning in the reservoir area.

Spatial-temporal changes of tidal flats in the Huanghe River Delta using Landsat TM/ETM+ images

Integrating remote sensing, geographic information system (GIS) and fractal theory, change characteristics of tidal flats and tidal creeks in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Delta over the period of 1986-2001 were discussed. The results show that evolutions of tidal flats throughout the Huanghe River Delta are influenced by various factors, and that progressive succession and regression of tidal flats concur in different coastal segments of the delta. Human activities have played an increasingly important role in the succession process of tidal flats. Due to land reclamation in coastal zones of the delta in the last 15 years, lots of tidal flats were occupied, the artificial coastline migrated seaward (the maximum change rate was 0.8 kmyr-1) and tidal creeks became sparser (the highest decreasing rate of length of tidal creeks was 14.9 kmyr-1). Except for two coastal segments from the Tiaohe Estuary to the 106 Station and from the south of the Huanghe River mouth to the north of the Xiaodao River Estuary, fractal dimension values of tidal creeks in the remaining coastal segments of the delta decreased. In addition, the time dimension, sediment fluxes into the sea, waves and tidal-currents have profound influences on the evolution process of tidal flats. Four types of tidal flats-river-dominated tidal flats, tide-dominated tidal flats, wave-dominated tidal flats and man-dominated tidal flats can be identified. Owing to the intensification of human activities in coastal zones of the delta, man-dominated tidal flats have become the main kind of tidal flats.

Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinity≥0.3 wt% (NaCl)eq) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity ≥3.5 wt% (NaCl)eq) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type, lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas, the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover, it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects.

Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration （ET0 ） （estimated by the Penman-Monteith method） were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen＇s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the ET0 change and each climatic variable＇s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in ETo. The radiative component of total ET0 increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total ETo than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season （from April to October）. The sensitivity analysis showed that ETo in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature （11.8%）, followed by wind speed （-7.3%） and relative humidity （4.8%）. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on ET0 over the past 59 years.

Trend Analysis in Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Anomaly Index in the Context of Climate Change in Southern Togo

Rainfall and temperature are climatic variables mostly affected by global warming. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend analysis in annual temperature and rainfall in the Southern Togo for the 1970-2014 period. Daily and annual rainfall and temperature were collected from four weather stations at Atakpame, Kouma-Konda, Lome, and Tabligbo. The temperature variability was determined by the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and the annual rainfall variability was determined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Mann-Kendall statistical test for the mean annual, mean annual minimum and maximum temperature from 1970 to 2014 showed significant warming trends for all stations except Kouma-Konda where mean annual maximum temperature had exhibited non significant cooling trend (P = 0.01). For Standardized Precipitation Index in the 12-month time scale, dry tendency dominates Atakpamé (55.7%) and Kouma-Konda (55.5%) while wet tendency dominates slightly Lomé (50.9%) and Tabligbo (51.4%). The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in standardized anomaly index at all the sites, prejudicial to rainfed agriculture practiced by about 90% of Togolese crop growers. The trend analysis in the climate variables indicated a change in climate that necessitates some specific actions for resources management sustainability and conservation.

Changes of spring wind erosion based on wind erosion climate factor in the black soil region of Northeast China

The dry and windy climate and low ground cover in spring in the black soil region of Northeast China make the soil strongly affected by wind erosion,which seriously threatens the food security and ecological security of this region.In this paper,based on the daily observation data of 124 meteorological stations in study area from 1961 to 2020,seasonal and monthly wind erosion climate factor(C)in spring(March to May)were calculated by using the method proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),the wind erosion characterization in spring were systematically analyzed based on C by various statistical analysis methods.The results showed that in the past 60 years,spring wind erosion climate factor(CSp)and monthly C of the whole region and each province(region)all showed highly significant decreasing trend,but they began to show rebounded trend in the middle or late 2000s.CSp of the study area showed a significant upward trend since 2008 with an increase of 4.59(10a)^(-1).The main contributors to this upward trend are the changes of C in March and in April.For the four provinces(regions),CSp in Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia all showed rebounded since 2008,2011,2008 and 2009,respectively.The rebounded trend of CSp in eastern Inner Mongolia was the most obvious with a tendency rate of 11.27(10a)^(-1),and its mutation occurred after 1984.The rebound trend of CSp in Heilongjiang Province takes the second place,with a trend rate of 4.72(10a)^(-1),but there’s no obvious time mutation characteristics.The spatial characteristics of CSpand monthly C are similar,showing decreasing characteristics centered on the typical black soil belt of Northeast China.Compared with 1961-1990,in the period from 1991 to 2020,the proportion of high value areas(CSp>35,monthly C>10)has decreased to varying degrees,while the proportion of low value areas(CSp≤10,monthly C≤4)has increased.The trends of seasonal and monthly C in 82.2%~87.7%of the stations show significant decreases at 95%confidence level.CSp is closely related to wind speed at 2m height,temperature difference,minimum temperature and precipitation in the same period,of which the correlation between CSp and wind speed is the strongest,indicating that the main control factor for CSp in the study area is wind speed,but the impact of the change of temperature and precipitation on CSp cannot be ignored.

Climate Change: Trends and People’s Perception in Nepal

In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts will increase which could put tremendous challenges in water resources management in the coming days. While scientific knowledge on climate threats and changing climate patterns are essential, it is also important to consider the impacts in relation to how the threats are perceived and handled by local people. This paper intends to assess the trend and people’s perception on temperature and precipitation. Three focus groups’ discussion and a total number of 240 households were interviewed during field visit. The collected information was scaled from the least preferred-1 to the most preferred-5 based on their preferences. The trend of mean of annual average, maximum and minimum temperature indicates that the temperature has increased significantly and precipitation intensity and magnitude are also in increasing trend in the monsoon and postmonsoon seasons which may raise the extreme flood events. These facts were verified with the people’s perception. This finding could be useful for formulation of effective flood management policy and plan in this river basin as well as very applicable for other similar areas.

Change Trends of Accumulated Temperature and Effects on Agricultural Production in Shenyang during Recent 58 Years

[Objective] The aim was to study the change trend of accumulated temperature in Shenyang in recent 58 years, as well as its effect on agricultural production. [Method] Based on the surface temperature data in Shenyang, the change trends of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature in Shenyang in recent 58 years were analyzed by means of climatic statistics method, and the effects of accumulated temperature variation on agricultural production were discussed. [Result] In recent 58 years, the first day with temperature ≥0 ℃ advanced 10 d, and the last day put off slightly, while sustained days prolonged 13 d, and ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased by 343 ℃·d; meanwhile, the first day with temperature ≥10 ℃ advanced 9 d, and the last day put off 8 d, while sustained days prolonged 16 d, and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature increased by 370 ℃·d; compared with the first 20 years, sustained days with temperature ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ prolonged 9 d in the last 20 years, and ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature increased by 196 and 202 ℃·d, respectively. In addition, the increase of heat resources affected agricultural production in Shenyang. [Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical foundation for grasping heat resources variation and adjusting agriculture distribution.

CLIMATE CHANGE:LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere （NH） temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and varioas oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series tbr the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external tbrcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

A positive trend in the stability of global offshore wind energy

The recognition on the trend of wind energy stability is still extremely rare,although it is closely related to acquisition efficiency,grid connection,equipment lifetime,and costs of wind energy utilization.Using the 40-year(1979–2018)ERA-Interim data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,this study presented the spatial-temporal distribution and climatic trend of the stability of global offshore wind energy as well as the abrupt phenomenon of wind energy stability in key regions over the past 40 years with the climatic analysis method and Mann-Kendall(M-K)test.The results show the following 5 points.(1)According to the coefficient of variation(C_(v))of the wind power density,there are six permanent stable zones of global offshore wind energy:the southeast and northeast trade wind zones in the Indian,Pacific and Atlantic oceans,the Southern Hemisphere westerly,and a semi-permanent stable zone(North Indian Ocean).(2)There are six lowvalue zones for both seasonal variability index(S_(v))and monthly variability index(M_(v))globally,with a similar spatial distribution as that of the six permanent stable zones.M_(v) and S_(v) in the Arabian Sea are the highest in the world.(3)After C_(v),M_(v) and S_(v) are comprehensively considered,the six permanent stable zones have an obvious advantage in the stability of wind energy over other sea areas,with C_(v) below 0.8,M_(v) within 1.0,and S_(v) within 0.7 all the year round.(4)The global stability of offshore wind energy shows a positive climatic trend for the past four decades.C_(v),M_(v) and S_(v) have not changed significantly or decreased in most of the global ocean during 1979 to2018.That is,wind energy is flat or more stable,while the monthly and seasonal variabilities tend to shrink/smooth,which is beneficial for wind energy utilization.(5)C_(v) in the low-latitude Pacific and M_(v) and S_(v) in both the North Indian Ocean and the low-latitude Pacific have an obvious abrupt phenomenon at the end of the20th century.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Analysis and prediction of glacier evolution trend(2020-2100)in Northern Xinjiang

Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.