Multi-Scale Location Attention Model for Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Disease Incidence

Due to the increasingly severe challenges brought by various epidemic diseases,people urgently need intelligent outbreak trend prediction.Predicting disease onset is very important to assist decision-making.Most of the exist-ing work fails to make full use of the temporal and spatial characteristics of epidemics,and also relies on multi-variate data for prediction.In this paper,we propose a Multi-Scale Location Attention Graph Neural Networks(MSLAGNN)based on a large number of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)patient electronic medical records research sequence source data sets.In order to understand the geography and timeliness of infec-tious diseases,specific neural networks are used to extract the geography and timeliness of infectious diseases.In the model framework,the features of different periods are extracted by a multi-scale convolution module.At the same time,the propagation effects between regions are simulated by graph convolution and attention mechan-isms.We compare the proposed method with the most advanced statistical methods and deep learning models.Meanwhile,we conduct comparative experiments on data sets with different time lengths to observe the predic-tion performance of the model in the face of different degrees of data collection.We conduct extensive experi-ments on real-world epidemic-related data sets.The method has strong prediction performance and can be readily used for epidemic prediction.

Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Root Zone Soil Moisture Using Multivariate Relevance Vector Machines

Root zone soil moisture at one and two meter depths are forecasted four days into the future. In this article, we propose a new multivariate output prediction approach to root zone soil moisture assessment using learning machine models. These models are known for their robustness, efficiency, and sparseness;they provide a statistically sound approach to solving the inverse problem and thus to building statistical models. The multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) is used to build a model that forecasts soil moisture states based upon current soil moisture and soil temperature conditions. The methodology combines the data at different depths from 5 cm to 50 cm, the largest of which corresponds to the depth at which the soil moisture sensors are generally operational, to produce soil moisture predictions at larger depths. The MVRVM test results for soil moisture predictions at 1 m and 2 m depth on the 4th day are excellent with RMSE = 0.0131 m3/m3 for 1 m;and RMSE = 0.0015 m3/m3 for 2 m forecasted values. The statistics of predictions for 4th day (CoE = 0.87 for 1 m and CoE = 0.96 for 2 m) indicate good model generalization capability and computations show good agreement with actual measurements with R2 = 0.88 and R2 = 0.97 for 1 m and 2 m depths, respectively. The MVRVM produces good results for all four days. Bootstrapping is used to check over/under-fitting and uncertainty in model estimates.

Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatio-Temporal Graph Traffic Flow Prediction in Bangkok:An Application of a Continuous Convolutional Neural Network

The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on WVMD and Spatio-Temporal Dual-Stream Network

As the penetration ratio of wind power in active distribution networks continues to increase,the system exhibits some characteristics such as randomness and volatility.Fast and accurate short-term wind power prediction is essential for algorithms like scheduling and optimization control.Based on the spatio-temporal features of Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)data,it proposes the WVMD_DSN(Whale Optimization Algorithm,Variational Mode Decomposition,Dual Stream Network)model.The model first applies Pearson correlation coefficient(PCC)to choose some NWP features with strong correlation to wind power to form the feature set.Then,it decomposes the feature set using Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD)to eliminate the nonstationarity and obtains Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs).Here Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA)is applied to optimise the key parameters of VMD,namely the number of mode components K and penalty factor a.Finally,incorporating attention mechanism(AM),Squeeze-Excitation Network(SENet),and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit(BiGRU),it constructs the dual-stream network(DSN)for short-term wind power prediction.Comparative experiments demonstrate that the WVMD_DSN model outperforms existing baseline algorithms and exhibits good generalization performance.The relevant code is available at https://github.com/ruanyuyuan/Wind-power-forecast.git(accessed on 20 August 2024).

A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide

Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the “landslide probability judgement factor” can be worked out through grading and overlapping “geological condition influenc- ing factor” and “rainfall influencing factor”, by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rain- fall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of “two factors” grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

Survey on Research of RNN-Based Spatio-Temporal Sequence Prediction Algorithms

In the past few years,deep learning has developed rapidly,and many researchers try to combine their subjects with deep learning.The algorithm based on Recurrent Neural Network(RNN)has been successfully applied in the fields of weather forecasting,stock forecasting,action recognition,etc.because of its excellent performance in processing Spatio-temporal sequence data.Among them,algorithms based on LSTM and GRU have developed most rapidly because of their good design.This paper reviews the RNN-based Spatio-temporal sequence prediction algorithm,introduces the development history of RNN and the common application directions of the Spatio-temporal sequence prediction,and includes precipitation nowcasting algorithms and traffic flow forecasting algorithms.At the same time,it also compares the advantages and disadvantages,and innovations of each algorithm.The purpose of this article is to give readers a clear understanding of solutions to such problems.Finally,it prospects the future development of RNN in the Spatio-temporal sequence prediction algorithm.

FP-STE: A Novel Node Failure Prediction Method Based on Spatio-Temporal Feature Extraction in Data Centers

The development of cloud computing and virtualization technology has brought great challenges to the reliability of data center services.Data centers typically contain a large number of compute and storage nodes which may fail and affect the quality of service.Failure prediction is an important means of ensuring service availability.Predicting node failure in cloud-based data centers is challenging because the failure symptoms reflected have complex characteristics,and the distribution imbalance between the failure sample and the normal sample is widespread,resulting in inaccurate failure prediction.Targeting these challenges,this paper proposes a novel failure prediction method FP-STE(Failure Prediction based on Spatio-temporal Feature Extraction).Firstly,an improved recurrent neural network HW-GRU(Improved GRU based on HighWay network)and a convolutional neural network CNN are used to extract the temporal features and spatial features of multivariate data respectively to increase the discrimination of different types of failure symptoms which improves the accuracy of prediction.Then the intermediate results of the two models are added as features into SCSXGBoost to predict the possibility and the precise type of node failure in the future.SCS-XGBoost is an ensemble learning model that is improved by the integrated strategy of oversampling and cost-sensitive learning.Experimental results based on real data sets confirm the effectiveness and superiority of FP-STE.

Spatio-Temporal Cellular Network Traffic Prediction Using Multi-Task Deep Learning for AI-Enabled 6G

Spatio-temporal cellular network traffic prediction at wide-area level plays an important role in resource reconfiguration,traffic scheduling and intrusion detection,thus potentially supporting connected intelligence of the sixth generation of mobile communications technology(6G).However,the existing studies just focus on the spatio-temporal modeling of traffic data of single network service,such as short message,call,or Internet.It is not conducive to accurate prediction of traffic data,characterised by diverse network service,spatio-temporality and supersize volume.To address this issue,a novel multi-task deep learning framework is developed for citywide cellular network traffic prediction.Functionally,this framework mainly consists of a dual modular feature sharing layer and a multi-task learning layer(DMFS-MT).The former aims at mining long-term spatio-temporal dependencies and local spatio-temporal fluctuation trends in data,respectively,via a new combination of convolutional gated recurrent unit(ConvGRU)and 3-dimensional convolutional neural network(3D-CNN).For the latter,each task is performed for predicting service-specific traffic data based on a fully connected network.On the real-world Telecom Italia dataset,simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal through prediction performance measure,spatial pattern comparison and statistical distribution verification.

Attention-based spatio-temporal graph convolutional network considering external factors for multi-step traffic flow prediction

Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network. Since traffic flow data has complex spatio-temporal correlation and non-linearity, existing prediction methods are mainly accomplished through a combination of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and a recurrent neural network. The combination strategy has an excellent performance in traffic prediction tasks. However, multi-step prediction error accumulates with the predicted step size. Some scholars use multiple sampling sequences to achieve more accurate prediction results. But it requires high hardware conditions and multiplied training time. Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of traffic flow and influence of external factors, we propose an Attention Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network considering External Factors (ABSTGCN-EF) for multi-step traffic flow prediction. This model models the traffic flow as diffusion on a digraph and extracts the spatial characteristics of traffic flow through GCN. We add meaningful time-slots attention to the encoder-decoder to form an Attention Encoder Network (AEN) to handle temporal correlation. The attention vector is used as a competitive choice to draw the correlation between predicted states and historical states. We considered the impact of three external factors (daytime, weekdays, and traffic accident markers) on the traffic flow prediction tasks. Experiments on two public data sets show that it makes sense to consider external factors. The prediction performance of our ABSTGCN-EF model achieves 7.2%–8.7% higher than the state-of-the-art baselines.

Grain Yield Prediction of Henan Province Based on Spatio-temporal Regression Model

By using correlation analysis method,regression analysis method and time sequence method,we combine time and space,to establish grain yield spatio-temporal regression prediction model of Henan Province and all prefecture-level cities.At first,we use the grain yield in prefecture-level cities of Henan in the year 2000 and 2005,to establish regression model,and then taking the grain yield in one year as independent variable,we predict the grain yield in the fifth year afterwards.Taking the dependent variable value as independent variable again,we predict the grain yield at an interval of the same years,and based on this,predict year by year forward until the year we need.The research shows that the grain yield of Henan Province in the year 2015 and 2020 is 59.849 6 and 67.929 3 million t respectively,consistent with the research results of other scholars to some extent.

STTG-net:a Spatio-temporal network for human motion prediction based on transformer and graph convolution network

In recent years,human motion prediction has become an active research topic in computer vision.However,owing to the complexity and stochastic nature of human motion,it remains a challenging problem.In previous works,human motion prediction has always been treated as a typical inter-sequence problem,and most works have aimed to capture the temporal dependence between successive frames.However,although these approaches focused on the effects of the temporal dimension,they rarely considered the correlation between different joints in space.Thus,the spatio-temporal coupling of human joints is considered,to propose a novel spatio-temporal network based on a transformer and a gragh convolutional network(GCN)(STTG-Net).The temporal transformer is used to capture the global temporal dependencies,and the spatial GCN module is used to establish local spatial correlations between the joints for each frame.To overcome the problems of error accumulation and discontinuity in the motion prediction,a revision method based on fusion strategy is also proposed,in which the current prediction frame is fused with the previous frame.The experimental results show that the proposed prediction method has less prediction error and the prediction motion is smoother than previous prediction methods.The effectiveness of the proposed method is also demonstrated comparing it with the state-of-the-art method on the Human3.6 M dataset.

Spatio-Temporal Wind Speed Prediction Based on Variational Mode Decomposition

Improving short-term wind speed prediction accuracy and stability remains a challenge for wind forecasting researchers.This paper proposes a new variational mode decomposition(VMD)-attention-based spatio-temporal network(VASTN)method that takes advantage of both temporal and spatial correlations of wind speed.First,VASTN is a hybrid wind speed prediction model that combines VMD,squeeze-and-excitation network(SENet),and attention mechanism(AM)-based bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM).VASTN initially employs VMD to decompose the wind speed matrix into a series of intrinsic mode functions(IMF).Then,to extract the spatial features at the bottom of the model,each IMF employs an improved convolutional neural network algorithm based on channel AM,also known as SENet.Second,it combines BiLSTM and AM at the top layer to extract aggregated spatial features and capture temporal dependencies.Finally,VASTN accumulates the predictions of each IMF to obtain the predicted wind speed.This method employs VMD to reduce the randomness and instability of the original data before employing AM to improve prediction accuracy through mapping weight and parameter learning.Experimental results on real-world data demonstrate VASTN’s superiority over previous related algorithms.

Classifying rockburst with confidence:A novel conformal prediction approach

The scientific community recognizes the seriousness of rockbursts and the need for effective mitigation measures.The literature reports various successful applications of machine learning(ML)models for rockburst assessment;however,a significant question remains unanswered:How reliable are these models,and at what confidence level are classifications made?Typically,ML models output single rockburst grade even in the face of intricate and out-of-distribution samples,without any associated confidence value.Given the susceptibility of ML models to errors,it becomes imperative to quantify their uncertainty to prevent consequential failures.To address this issue,we propose a conformal prediction(CP)framework built on traditional ML models(extreme gradient boosting and random forest)to generate valid classifications of rockburst while producing a measure of confidence for its output.The proposed framework guarantees marginal coverage and,in most cases,conditional coverage on the test dataset.The CP was evaluated on a rockburst case in the Sanshandao Gold Mine in China,where it achieved high coverage and efficiency at applicable confidence levels.Significantly,the CP identified several“confident”classifications from the traditional ML model as unreliable,necessitating expert verification for informed decision-making.The proposed framework improves the reliability and accuracy of rockburst assessments,with the potential to bolster user confidence.

Prediction model for corrosion rate of low-alloy steels under atmospheric conditions using machine learning algorithms

This work constructed a machine learning(ML)model to predict the atmospheric corrosion rate of low-alloy steels(LAS).The material properties of LAS,environmental factors,and exposure time were used as the input,while the corrosion rate as the output.6 dif-ferent ML algorithms were used to construct the proposed model.Through optimization and filtering,the eXtreme gradient boosting(XG-Boost)model exhibited good corrosion rate prediction accuracy.The features of material properties were then transformed into atomic and physical features using the proposed property transformation approach,and the dominant descriptors that affected the corrosion rate were filtered using the recursive feature elimination(RFE)as well as XGBoost methods.The established ML models exhibited better predic-tion performance and generalization ability via property transformation descriptors.In addition,the SHapley additive exPlanations(SHAP)method was applied to analyze the relationship between the descriptors and corrosion rate.The results showed that the property transformation model could effectively help with analyzing the corrosion behavior,thereby significantly improving the generalization ability of corrosion rate prediction models.

A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

Prediction of treatment response to antipsychotic drugs for precision medicine approach to schizophrenia:randomized trials and multiomics analysis

Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).

ST-LSTM-SA:A New Ocean Sound Velocity Field Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning

The scarcity of in-situ ocean observations poses a challenge for real-time information acquisition in the ocean.Among the crucial hydroacoustic environmental parameters,ocean sound velocity exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability and it is highly relevant to oceanic research.In this study,we propose a new data-driven approach,leveraging deep learning techniques,for the prediction of sound velocity fields(SVFs).Our novel spatiotemporal prediction model,STLSTM-SA,combines Spatiotemporal Long Short-Term Memory(ST-LSTM) with a self-attention mechanism to enable accurate and real-time prediction of SVFs.To circumvent the limited amount of observational data,we employ transfer learning by first training the model using reanalysis datasets,followed by fine-tuning it using in-situ analysis data to obtain the final prediction model.By utilizing the historical 12-month SVFs as input,our model predicts the SVFs for the subsequent three months.We compare the performance of five models:Artificial Neural Networks(ANN),Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM),Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM),ST-LSTM,and our proposed ST-LSTM-SA model in a test experiment spanning 2019 to 2022.Our results demonstrate that the ST-LSTM-SA model significantly improves the prediction accuracy and stability of sound velocity in both temporal and spatial dimensions.The ST-LSTM-SA model not only accurately predicts the ocean sound velocity field(SVF),but also provides valuable insights for spatiotemporal prediction of other oceanic environmental variables.

Product quality prediction based on RBF optimized by firefly algorithm

With the development of information technology,a large number of product quality data in the entire manufacturing process is accumulated,but it is not explored and used effectively.The traditional product quality prediction models have many disadvantages,such as high complexity and low accuracy.To overcome the above problems,we propose an optimized data equalization method to pre-process dataset and design a simple but effective product quality prediction model:radial basis function model optimized by the firefly algorithm with Levy flight mechanism(RBFFALM).First,the new data equalization method is introduced to pre-process the dataset,which reduces the dimension of the data,removes redundant features,and improves the data distribution.Then the RBFFALFM is used to predict product quality.Comprehensive expe riments conducted on real-world product quality datasets validate that the new model RBFFALFM combining with the new data pre-processing method outperforms other previous me thods on predicting product quality.

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.