Prospect Theory Based Individual Irrationality Modelling and Behavior Inducement in Pandemic Control

Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior.

Comparative study on phase transition behaviors of fractional molecular field theory and random-site Ising model

Fractional molecular field theory(FMFT)is a phenomenological theory that describes phase transitions in crystals with randomly distributed components,such as the relaxor-ferroelectrics and spin glasses.In order to verify the feasibility of this theory,this paper fits it to the Monte Carlo simulations of specific heat and susceptibility versus temperature of two-dimensional(2D)random-site Ising model(2D-RSIM).The results indicate that the FMFT deviates from the 2D-RSIM significantly.The main reason for the deviation is that the 2D-RSIM is a typical system of component random distribution,where the real order parameter is spatially heterogeneous and has no symmetry of space translation,but the basic assumption of FMFT means that the parameter is spatially uniform and has symmetry of space translation.

An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL

Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability(CFP).However,the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts,whichmay be subjective and uncertain.What’smore,the classicCREAMassumes that the CPCs are independent,which is unrealistic.Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation.To address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing,this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific scenarios.To address the issue of dependence modeling,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC,thus modifying the multiplier of the CPCs.The detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable.

Complex adaptive system theory,agent-based modeling,and simulation in dominant technology formation

Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.

Problem-solving model guided by stimulus-organism-response theory:State of mind and coping styles of depressed mothers after cesarean delivery

BACKGROUND The use of a problem-solving model guided by stimulus-organism-response(SOR)theory for women with postpartum depression after cesarean delivery may inform nursing interventions for women with postpartum depression.AIM To explore the state of mind and coping style of women with depression after cesarean delivery guided by SOR theory.METHODS Eighty postpartum depressed women with cesarean delivery admitted to the hospital between January 2022 and October 2023 were selected and divided into two groups of 40 cases each,according to the random number table method.In the control group,the observation group adopted the problem-solving nursing model under SOR theory.The two groups were consecutively intervened for 12 weeks,and the state of mind,coping styles,and degree of post-partum depression were analyzed at the end of the intervention.RESULTS The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and Hamilton Depression Scale-24-item scores of the observation group were lower than in the control group after care,and the level of improvement in the state of mind was higher than that of the control group(P<0.05).The level of coping with illness in the observation group after care(26.48±3.35)was higher than that in the control group(21.73±3.20),and the level of avoidance(12.04±2.68)and submission(8.14±1.15)was lower than that in the control group(15.75±2.69 and 9.95±1.20),with significant differences(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Adopting the problem-solving nursing model using SOR theory for postpartum depressed mothers after cesarean delivery reduced maternal depression,improved their state of mind,and coping level with illness.

Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Solving the Olbers’s Paradox, Explaining the “Red-Shift”, and Challenging the Relativities by “Sun Matters Theory” and “Sun Model of Universe”, an Evolution of the Einstein’s Static Universe Model

Olbers’s paradox, known as the dark night paradox, is an argument in astrophysics that the darkness of the night sky conflicts with the assumption of an infinite and eternal static universe. Big-Bang theory was used to partially explain this paradox, while introducing new problems. Hereby, we propose a better theory, named Sun Matters Theory, to explain this paradox. Moreover, this unique theory supports and extended the Einstein’s static universe model proposed by Albert Einstein in 1917. Further, we proposed our new universe model, “Sun Model of Universe”. Based on the new model and novel theory, we generated innovative field equation by upgrading Einstein’s Field Equation through adding back the cosmological constant, introducing a new variable and modifying the gravitationally-related concepts. According to the Sun Model of Universe, the dark matter and dark energy comprise the so-called “Sun Matters”. The observed phenomenon like the red shift is explained as due to the interaction of ordinary light with Sun Matters leading to its energy and frequency decrease. In Sun Model, our big universe consists of many universes with ordinary matter at the core mixed and surrounded with the Sun Matters. In those universes, the laws of physics may be completely or partially different from that of our ordinary universe with parallel civilizations. The darkness of night can be easily explained as resulting from the interaction of light with the Sun Matters leading to the sharp decrease in the light intensity. Sun Matters also scatter the light from a star, which makes it shining as observed by Hubble. Further, there is a kind of Sun Matters named “Sun Waters”, surrounding every starts. When lights pass by the sun, the Sun Waters deflect the lights to bend the light path. According to the Sun Model, it is the light bent not the space bent that was proposed in the theory of relativities.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

Gravity-Based Kinetostatic Modeling of Parallel Manipulators Using Screw Theory

The pose accuracy of parallel manipulators(PMs)is a key index to measure their performance.Establishing the grav-ity-based kinetostatic model of a parallel robot provides an important basis for its error composition and accuracy improvement.In this paper,a kinetostatic modeling approach that takes real gravity distribution into consideration is proposed to analyze the influence of gravity on the infinitesimal twist and actuator forces of PMs.First,the duality of the twist screw and constraint wrenches are used to derive the gravity-attached constraint wrenches independent of the external load and the limb stiffness matrix corresponding to the kinematics-based constraint wrenches.Sec-ond,the gravity model of the mechanism is established based on the screw theory and the principle of virtual work.Finally,the analytical formulas of the infinitesimal twist and the actuator force of PMs are obtained,and the influences of the external load,platform gravity,and rod gravity on the stiffness of the mechanism are decoupled.The non-overconstrained 3RPS and overconstrained 2PRU-UPR PMs are taken as examples to verify the proposed method.This research proposes a methodology to analyze the infinitesimal deformation of the mechanism under the influence of gravity.

A novel adaptive temporal-spatial information fusion model based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory

In the field of target recognition based on the temporal-spatial information fusion,evidence the-ory has received extensive attention.To achieve accurate and efficient target recognition by the evi-dence theory,an adaptive temporal-spatial information fusion model is proposed.Firstly,an adaptive evaluation correction mechanism is constructed by the evidence distance and Deng entropy,which realizes the credibility discrimination and adaptive correction of the spatial evidence.Secondly,the credibility decay operator is introduced to obtain the dynamic credibility of temporal evidence.Finally,the sequential combination of temporal-spatial evidences is achieved by Shafer’s discount criterion and Dempster’s combination rule.The simulation results show that the proposed method not only considers the dynamic and sequential characteristics of the temporal-spatial evidences com-bination,but also has a strong conflict information processing capability,which provides a new refer-ence for the field of temporal-spatial information fusion.

The Complex Field Theory and Mass Formation—An Alternative Model to Higgs Mechanism

The electromagnetic force, strong nuclear force, weak nuclear force, and gravitational force are the four fundamental forces of nature. The Standard Model (SM) succeeded in combining the first three forces to describe the most basic building blocks of matter and govern the universe. Despite the model’s great success in resolving many issues in particle physics but still has several setbacks and limitations. The model failed to incorporate the fourth force of gravity. It infers that all fermions and bosons are massless contrary to experimental facts. In addition, the model addresses neither the 95% of the universe’s energy of Dark Matter (DM) and Dark Energy (DE) nor the universe’s expansion. The Complex Field Theory (CFT) identifies DM and DE as complex fields of complex masses and charges that encompasses the whole universe, and pervade all matter. This presumption resolves the issue of failing to detect DM and DE for the last five decades. The theory also presents a model for the universe’s expansion and presumes that every material object carries a fraction of this complex field proportional to its mass. These premises clearly explain the physical nature of the gravitational force and its complex field and pave the way for gravity into the SM. On the other hand, to solve the issue of massless bosons and fermions in the SM, Higgs mechanism introduces a pure and abstractive theoretical model of unimaginable four potentials to generate fictitious bosons as mass donors to fermions and W± and Z bosons. The CFT in this paper introduces, for the first time, a physical explanation to the mystery of the mass formation of particles rather than Higgs’ pure mathematical derivations. The analyses lead to uncovering the mystery of electron-positron production near heavy nuclei and never in a vacuum. In addition, it puts a constraint on Einstein’s mass-energy equation that energy can never be converted to mass without the presence of dense dark matter and cannot be true in a vacuum. Furthermore, CFT provides different perspectives and resolves real-world physics concepts such as the nuclear force, Casimir force, Lamb’s shift, and the anomalous magnetic moment to be published elsewhere.

Dynamics of Advantageous Mutant Spread in Spatial Death-Birth and Birth-Death Moran Models

The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.

Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model

This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.

Comparisons of Wave Force Model Effects on the Structural Responses and Fatigue Loads of a Semi-Submersible Floating Wind Turbine

The selection of wave force models will significantly impact the structural responses of floating wind turbines.In this study,comparisons of wave force model effects on the structural responses and fatigue loads of a semi-submersible floating wind turbine(SFWT)were conducted.Simulations were performed by employing the Morison equation(ME)with linear or second-order wave kinematics and potential flow theory(PFT)with first-or second-order wave forces.A comparison of regular waves,irregular waves,and coupled wind/waves analyses with the experimental data showed that many of the simulation results and experimental data are relatively consistent.However,notable discrepancies are found in the response amplitude operators for platform heave,tower base bending moment,and tension in mooring lines.PFT models give more satisfactory results of heave but more significant discrepan-cies in tower base bending moment than the ME models.In irregular wave analyses,low-frequency resonances were captured by PFT models with second-order difference-frequency terms,and high-frequency resonances were captured by the ME models or PFT models with second-order sum-frequency terms.These force models capture the response frequencies but do not reasonably predict the response amplitudes.The coupled wind/waves analyses showed more satisfactory results than the wave-only analyses.However,an important detail to note is that this satisfactory result is based on the overprediction of wind-induced responses.

Towards 6D Little String Theory of Particles

A model for particles based on preons in chiral, vector and tensor/graviton supermultiplets of unbroken global supersymmetry is engineered. The framework of the model is little string theory. Phenomenological predictions are discussed.

The Fate of Supersymmetry in Quantum Field Theories

We analyze the significance of supersymmetry in two topological models and the standard model (SM). We conclude that the two topological field theory models favor hidden supersymmetry. The SM superpartners, instead, have not been found.

The “Dead Universe” Theory: Natural Separation of Galaxies Driven by the Remnants of a Supermassive Dead Universe

This article explores the dead universe theory as a novel interpretation for the origin and evolution of the universe, suggesting that our cosmos may have originated from the remnants of a preceding universe. This perspective challenges the conventional Big Bang theory, particularly concerning dark matter, the expansion of the universe, and the interpretation of phenomena such as gravitational waves.

Non-Uniform Pion Tetrahedron Aether and Electron Tetrahedron Model

We propose that the QCD vacuum pion tetrahedron condensate density vary in space and drops to extremely low values in the Kennan, Barger and Cowie (KBC) void in analogy to earth’s atmospheric density drop with elevation from earth. We propose a formula for the gravitation acceleration based on the non-uniform pion tetrahedron condensate. Gravity may be due to the underlying microscopic attraction between quarks and antiquarks, which are part of the vacuum pion tetrahedron condensate. We propose an electron tetrahedron model, where electrons are comprised of tetraquark tetrahedrons, and . The quarks determine the negative electron charge and the or quarks determine the electron two spin states. The electron tetrahedron may perform a high frequency quark exchange reactions with the pion tetrahedron condensate by tunneling through the condensation gap creating a delocalized electron cloud with a fixed spin. The pion tetrahedron may act as a QCD glue bonding electron pairs in atoms and molecules and protons to neutrons in the nuclei. Conservation of valence quarks and antiquarks is proposed.

Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration

In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. .

A Brief Analysis of the Self-correction Model——from the View of Linking Theory

Based on the theory of the post method pedagogy and the teaching practice，this paper proposes a new teaching model，the self-correction model，and explains it from the point of view of linking theory.