Immiscible water-alternating-gas(WAG) flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the com...Immiscible water-alternating-gas(WAG) flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the complicated phase behavior and various multiphase flow characteristics,gas tends to break through early in production wells in heterogeneous formations because of overriding,fingering,and channeling,which may result in unfavorable recovery performance.On the basis of phase behavior studies,minimum miscibility pressure measurements,and immiscible WAG coreflood experiments,the cubic B-spline model(CBM) was employed to describe the three-phase relative permeability curve.Using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the vector of unknown model parameters of the CBM sequentially,optimization of production performance including pressure drop,water cut,and the cumulative gas-oil ratio was performed.A novel numerical inversion method was established for estimation of the water-oil-gas relative permeability curve during the immiscible WAG process.Based on the quantitative characterization of major recovery mechanisms,the proposed method was validated by interpreting coreflood data of the immiscible WAG experiment.The proposed method is reliable and can meet engineering requirements.It provides a basic calculation theory for implicit estimation of oil-water-gas relative permeability curve.展开更多
This paper relates to the deep research on the Splinc Model Method of KED analysis. With the use of cubic B-splinc function as a link’s transverse deflection interpolation function, the principle of virtual displacem...This paper relates to the deep research on the Splinc Model Method of KED analysis. With the use of cubic B-splinc function as a link’s transverse deflection interpolation function, the principle of virtual displacement is presented as a basic theory for the general formulation of the equations of motion, and thus abandoned the kinematic assumption and the instantaneous structure assumption which arc used in the Spline Model Method. In thc same time, the nonlinear terms sue as coupling terms between thc rigid body motion and elastic deformation arc included. New member’s spline models are established. Mass matrix, Coriolis mass matrix, normal and tangential mass matrix, linear stiffness matrix, nonlinear stiffness matrix and rotation matrix arc derived. The kinematic differential equations of a member and system are deduced in the end. The Newmark direct integration method is used as the solution scheme of the kinematic differential equations to get the periodic response.展开更多
In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity condi...In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed method is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum squared error.展开更多
Active Contour Model or Snake model is an efficient method by which the users can extract the object contour of Region Of Interest (ROI). In this paper, we present an improved method combining Hermite splines curve an...Active Contour Model or Snake model is an efficient method by which the users can extract the object contour of Region Of Interest (ROI). In this paper, we present an improved method combining Hermite splines curve and Snake model that can be used as a tool for fast and intuitive contour extraction. We choose Hermite splines curve as a basic function of Snake contour curve and present its energy function. The optimization of energy minimization is performed by Dynamic Programming technique. The validation results are presented, comparing the traditional Snake model and the HSCM, showing the similar performance of the latter. We can find that HSCM can overcome the non-convex constraints efficiently. Several medical images applications illustrate that Hermite Splines Contour Model (HSCM) is more efficient than traditional Snake model.展开更多
Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Us...Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Using piecewise polynomial interpolation thought,this model can dynamically predict the general trend of time series data.Combined with low-order polynomial,the cubic spline interpolation has smaller error,avoids the Runge phenomenon of high-order polynomial,and has better approximation effect.Meanwhile,prediction is implemented with the newest information according to the rolling and feedback mechanism and fluctuating error is controlled well to improve prediction accuracy in time-varying environment.Case study using the living electricity consumption data of Jiangsu province in 2008 is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.展开更多
In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative m...In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative method the data points on each section curve are calculated and the generalized waterlines and transverse section curves are determined.Then using the non-uniform B-spline expression,the control vertex net of the hull is calculated based on the generalized waterlines and section curves.A ship with tunnel stern was taken as test case.The numerical results prove that the proposed approach for geometry modeling of 3-D ship hull surface is accurate and effective.展开更多
In high mountainous areas, the development and distribution of alpine permafrost is greatly affected by macroand micro-topographic factors. The effects of latitude, altitude, slope, and aspect on the distribution of p...In high mountainous areas, the development and distribution of alpine permafrost is greatly affected by macroand micro-topographic factors. The effects of latitude, altitude, slope, and aspect on the distribution of permafrost were studied to understand the distribution patterns of permafrost in Wenquan on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Cluster and correlation analysis were performed based on 30 m Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) data and field data obtained using geophysical exploration and borehole drilling methods. A Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model (MARS) was developed to simulate permafrost spatial distribution over the studied area. A validation was followed by comparing to 201 geophysical exploration sites, as well as by comparing to two other models, i.e., a binary logistic regression model and the Mean Annual Ground Temperature model (MAGT). The MARS model provides a better simulation than the other two models. Besides the control effect of elevation on permafrost distribution, the MARS model also takes into account the impact of direct solar radiation on permafrost distribution.展开更多
For accurate prediction of the deformation of cable in the towed system,a new finite element model is presented that provides a representation of both the bending and torsional effects.In this paper,the cubic spline i...For accurate prediction of the deformation of cable in the towed system,a new finite element model is presented that provides a representation of both the bending and torsional effects.In this paper,the cubic spline interpolation function is applied as the trial solution.By using a weighted residual approach,the discretized motion equations for the new finite element model are developed.The model is calculated with the computation program complier by Matlab.Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the numerical schemes.The results of numerical simulation are stable and valid,and consistent with the mechanical properties of the cable.The model can be applied to kinematics analysis and the design of ocean cable,such as mooring lines,towing,and ROV umbilical cables.展开更多
In the investigation of disease dynamics, the effect of covariates on the hazard function is a major topic. Some recent smoothed estimation methods have been proposed, both frequentist and Bayesian, based on the relat...In the investigation of disease dynamics, the effect of covariates on the hazard function is a major topic. Some recent smoothed estimation methods have been proposed, both frequentist and Bayesian, based on the relationship between penalized splines and mixed models theory. These approaches are also motivated by the possibility of using automatic procedures for determining the optimal amount of smoothing. However, estimation algorithms involve an analytically intractable hazard function, and thus require ad-hoc software routines. We propose a more user-friendly alternative, consisting in regularized estimation of piecewise exponential models by Bayesian P-splines. A further facilitation is that widespread Bayesian software, such as WinBUGS, can be used. The aim is assessing the robustness of this approach with respect to different prior functions and penalties. A large dataset from breast cancer patients, where results from validated clinical studies are available, is used as a benchmark to evaluate the reliability of the estimates. A second dataset from a small case series of sarcoma patients is used for evaluating the performances of the PE model as a tool for exploratory analysis. Concerning breast cancer data, the estimates are robust with respect to priors and penalties, and consistent with clinical knowledge. Concerning soft tissue sarcoma data, the estimates of the hazard function are sensitive with respect to the prior for the smoothing parameter, whereas the estimates of regression coefficients are robust. In conclusion, Gibbs sampling results an efficient computational strategy. The issue of the sensitivity with respect to the priors concerns only the estimates of the hazard function, and seems more likely to occur when non-large case series are investigated, calling for tailored solutions.展开更多
Accurate prediction of compressive strength of concrete is one of the key issues in the concrete industry. In this paper, a prediction method of fly ash-slag concrete compressive strength based on multiple adaptive re...Accurate prediction of compressive strength of concrete is one of the key issues in the concrete industry. In this paper, a prediction method of fly ash-slag concrete compressive strength based on multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) is proposed, and the model analysis process is determined by analyzing the principle of this algorithm. Based on the Concrete Compressive Strength dataset of UCI, the MARS model for compressive strength prediction was constructed with cement content, blast furnace slag powder content, fly ash content, water content, reducing agent content, coarse aggregate content, fine aggregate content and age as independent variables. The prediction results of artificial neural network (BP), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and multiple nonlinear regression (MnLR) were compared and analyzed, and the prediction accuracy and model stability of MARS and RF models had obvious advantages, and the comprehensive performance of MARS model was slightly better than that of RF model. Finally, the explicit expression of the MARS model for compressive strength is given, which provides an effective method to achieve the prediction of compressive strength of fly ash-slag concrete.展开更多
In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubi...In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.展开更多
基金the financial support of the Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects of China (Grant No. 2011ZX05010-002)the Important Science and Technology Specific Projects of Petro China (Grant No. 2014E-3203)
文摘Immiscible water-alternating-gas(WAG) flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the complicated phase behavior and various multiphase flow characteristics,gas tends to break through early in production wells in heterogeneous formations because of overriding,fingering,and channeling,which may result in unfavorable recovery performance.On the basis of phase behavior studies,minimum miscibility pressure measurements,and immiscible WAG coreflood experiments,the cubic B-spline model(CBM) was employed to describe the three-phase relative permeability curve.Using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the vector of unknown model parameters of the CBM sequentially,optimization of production performance including pressure drop,water cut,and the cumulative gas-oil ratio was performed.A novel numerical inversion method was established for estimation of the water-oil-gas relative permeability curve during the immiscible WAG process.Based on the quantitative characterization of major recovery mechanisms,the proposed method was validated by interpreting coreflood data of the immiscible WAG experiment.The proposed method is reliable and can meet engineering requirements.It provides a basic calculation theory for implicit estimation of oil-water-gas relative permeability curve.
文摘This paper relates to the deep research on the Splinc Model Method of KED analysis. With the use of cubic B-splinc function as a link’s transverse deflection interpolation function, the principle of virtual displacement is presented as a basic theory for the general formulation of the equations of motion, and thus abandoned the kinematic assumption and the instantaneous structure assumption which arc used in the Spline Model Method. In thc same time, the nonlinear terms sue as coupling terms between thc rigid body motion and elastic deformation arc included. New member’s spline models are established. Mass matrix, Coriolis mass matrix, normal and tangential mass matrix, linear stiffness matrix, nonlinear stiffness matrix and rotation matrix arc derived. The kinematic differential equations of a member and system are deduced in the end. The Newmark direct integration method is used as the solution scheme of the kinematic differential equations to get the periodic response.
文摘In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed method is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum squared error.
文摘Active Contour Model or Snake model is an efficient method by which the users can extract the object contour of Region Of Interest (ROI). In this paper, we present an improved method combining Hermite splines curve and Snake model that can be used as a tool for fast and intuitive contour extraction. We choose Hermite splines curve as a basic function of Snake contour curve and present its energy function. The optimization of energy minimization is performed by Dynamic Programming technique. The validation results are presented, comparing the traditional Snake model and the HSCM, showing the similar performance of the latter. We can find that HSCM can overcome the non-convex constraints efficiently. Several medical images applications illustrate that Hermite Splines Contour Model (HSCM) is more efficient than traditional Snake model.
基金This work has been supported by the National 863 Key Project Grant No. 2008AA042901, National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No.70631003 and No.90718037, Foundation of Hefei University of Technology Grant No. 2010HGXJ0083.
文摘Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Using piecewise polynomial interpolation thought,this model can dynamically predict the general trend of time series data.Combined with low-order polynomial,the cubic spline interpolation has smaller error,avoids the Runge phenomenon of high-order polynomial,and has better approximation effect.Meanwhile,prediction is implemented with the newest information according to the rolling and feedback mechanism and fluctuating error is controlled well to improve prediction accuracy in time-varying environment.Case study using the living electricity consumption data of Jiangsu province in 2008 is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
基金The Special Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(No.20050248037)The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10572094)
文摘In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative method the data points on each section curve are calculated and the generalized waterlines and transverse section curves are determined.Then using the non-uniform B-spline expression,the control vertex net of the hull is calculated based on the generalized waterlines and section curves.A ship with tunnel stern was taken as test case.The numerical results prove that the proposed approach for geometry modeling of 3-D ship hull surface is accurate and effective.
基金supported financially by the Special Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2008FY110200)partially by Open Programme of State Key Laboratory(No.SKLFSE201009)
文摘In high mountainous areas, the development and distribution of alpine permafrost is greatly affected by macroand micro-topographic factors. The effects of latitude, altitude, slope, and aspect on the distribution of permafrost were studied to understand the distribution patterns of permafrost in Wenquan on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Cluster and correlation analysis were performed based on 30 m Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) data and field data obtained using geophysical exploration and borehole drilling methods. A Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model (MARS) was developed to simulate permafrost spatial distribution over the studied area. A validation was followed by comparing to 201 geophysical exploration sites, as well as by comparing to two other models, i.e., a binary logistic regression model and the Mean Annual Ground Temperature model (MAGT). The MARS model provides a better simulation than the other two models. Besides the control effect of elevation on permafrost distribution, the MARS model also takes into account the impact of direct solar radiation on permafrost distribution.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China(Grant No.2010CDB10804)
文摘For accurate prediction of the deformation of cable in the towed system,a new finite element model is presented that provides a representation of both the bending and torsional effects.In this paper,the cubic spline interpolation function is applied as the trial solution.By using a weighted residual approach,the discretized motion equations for the new finite element model are developed.The model is calculated with the computation program complier by Matlab.Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the numerical schemes.The results of numerical simulation are stable and valid,and consistent with the mechanical properties of the cable.The model can be applied to kinematics analysis and the design of ocean cable,such as mooring lines,towing,and ROV umbilical cables.
文摘In the investigation of disease dynamics, the effect of covariates on the hazard function is a major topic. Some recent smoothed estimation methods have been proposed, both frequentist and Bayesian, based on the relationship between penalized splines and mixed models theory. These approaches are also motivated by the possibility of using automatic procedures for determining the optimal amount of smoothing. However, estimation algorithms involve an analytically intractable hazard function, and thus require ad-hoc software routines. We propose a more user-friendly alternative, consisting in regularized estimation of piecewise exponential models by Bayesian P-splines. A further facilitation is that widespread Bayesian software, such as WinBUGS, can be used. The aim is assessing the robustness of this approach with respect to different prior functions and penalties. A large dataset from breast cancer patients, where results from validated clinical studies are available, is used as a benchmark to evaluate the reliability of the estimates. A second dataset from a small case series of sarcoma patients is used for evaluating the performances of the PE model as a tool for exploratory analysis. Concerning breast cancer data, the estimates are robust with respect to priors and penalties, and consistent with clinical knowledge. Concerning soft tissue sarcoma data, the estimates of the hazard function are sensitive with respect to the prior for the smoothing parameter, whereas the estimates of regression coefficients are robust. In conclusion, Gibbs sampling results an efficient computational strategy. The issue of the sensitivity with respect to the priors concerns only the estimates of the hazard function, and seems more likely to occur when non-large case series are investigated, calling for tailored solutions.
文摘Accurate prediction of compressive strength of concrete is one of the key issues in the concrete industry. In this paper, a prediction method of fly ash-slag concrete compressive strength based on multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) is proposed, and the model analysis process is determined by analyzing the principle of this algorithm. Based on the Concrete Compressive Strength dataset of UCI, the MARS model for compressive strength prediction was constructed with cement content, blast furnace slag powder content, fly ash content, water content, reducing agent content, coarse aggregate content, fine aggregate content and age as independent variables. The prediction results of artificial neural network (BP), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and multiple nonlinear regression (MnLR) were compared and analyzed, and the prediction accuracy and model stability of MARS and RF models had obvious advantages, and the comprehensive performance of MARS model was slightly better than that of RF model. Finally, the explicit expression of the MARS model for compressive strength is given, which provides an effective method to achieve the prediction of compressive strength of fly ash-slag concrete.
文摘In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.
