A two-year field experiment(2012–2013) was conducted to investigate the effects of two tillage methods and five maize straw mulching patterns on the yield, water consumption,and water use efficiency(WUE) of spring ma...A two-year field experiment(2012–2013) was conducted to investigate the effects of two tillage methods and five maize straw mulching patterns on the yield, water consumption,and water use efficiency(WUE) of spring maize(Zea mays L.) in the northern Huang–Huai–Hai valley of China. Compared to rotary tillage, subsoil tillage resulted in decreases in water consumption by 6.3–7.8% and increases in maize yield by 644.5–673.9 kg ha-1, soil water content by 2.9–3.0%, and WUE by 12.7–15.2%. Chopped straw mulching led to higher yield,soil water content, and WUE as well as lower water consumption than prostrate whole straw mulching. Mulching with 50% chopped straw had the largest positive effects on maize yield, soil water content, and WUE among the five mulching treatments. Tillage had greater influence on maize yield than straw mulching, whereas straw mulching had greater influence on soil water content, water consumption, and WUE than tillage. These results suggest that 50% chopped straw mulching with subsoil tillage is beneficial in spring maize production aiming at high yield and high WUE in the Huang–Huai–Hai valley.展开更多
High-temperature stress (HTS) at the grain-filling stage in spring maize (Zea mays L.) is the main obstacle to increasing productivity in the North China Plain (NCP). To solve this problem, the physiological mec...High-temperature stress (HTS) at the grain-filling stage in spring maize (Zea mays L.) is the main obstacle to increasing productivity in the North China Plain (NCP). To solve this problem, the physiological mechanisms of HTS, and its causes and impacts, must be understood. The HTS threshold of the duration and rate in grain filling, photosynthetic characteristics (e.g., the thermal stability of thylakoid membrane, chlorophyll and electron transfer, photosynthetic carbon assimilation), water status (e.g., leaf water potential, turgor and leaf relative water content) and signal transduction in maize are reviewed. The HTS threshold for spring maize is highly desirable to be appraised to prevent damages by unfavorable temperatures during grain filling in this region. HTS has negative impacts on maize photosynthesis by damaging the stability of the thylakoid membrane structure and degrading chlorophyll, which reduces light energy absorption, transfer and photosynthetic carbon assimilation. In addition, photosynthesis can be deleteriously affected due to inhibited root growth under HTS in which plants decrease their water-absorbing capacity, leaf water potential, turgor, leaf relative water content, and stomatal conductance. Inhibited photosynthesis decrease the supply of photosynthates to the grain, leading to falling of kernel weight and even grain yield. However, maize does not respond passively to HTS. The plant transduces the abscisic acid (ABA) signal to express heat shock proteins (HSPs), which are molecular chaperones that participate in protein refolding and degradation caused by HTS. HSPs stabilize target protein configurations and indirectly improve thylakoid membrane structure stability, light energy absorption and passing, electron transport, and fixed carbon assimilation, leading to improved photosynthesis. ABA also induces stomatal closure to maintain a good water status for photosynthesis. Based on understanding of such mechanisms, strategies for alleviating HTS at the grain-filling stage in spring maize are summarized. Eight strategies have the potential to improve the ability of spring maize to avoid or tolerate HTS in this study, e.g., adjusting sowing date to avoid HTS, breeding heat-tolerance varieties, and tillage methods, optimizing irrigation, heat acclimation, regulating chemicals, nutritional management, and planting geometric design to tolerate HTS. Based on the single technology breakthrough, a com- prehensive integrated technical system is needed to improve heat tolerance and increase the spring maize yield in the NCP.展开更多
To identify a strategy for earlier sowing and harvesting of spring maize(Zea mays L.) in an alternative maize–maize double cropping system, a 2-year field experiment was performed at Quzhou experimental station of Ch...To identify a strategy for earlier sowing and harvesting of spring maize(Zea mays L.) in an alternative maize–maize double cropping system, a 2-year field experiment was performed at Quzhou experimental station of China Agricultural University in 2014 and 2015. A short-season cultivar, Demeiya number 1(KX7349), was used in the experiment. Soil temperature to 5 cm depth in the early crop growth stage, crop growth, crop yield, and water use of different treatments(plastic film-mulched raised bed(RF) and flat field without plastic film mulching(CK) in 2014; RF, plastic film-mulched flat field(FF), and CK in 2015)were measured or calculated and compared. Soil temperature in the film-mulched treatments was consistently higher than that in CK(1.6–3.5 °C in average) during the early growth stage. Crops in plastic film-mulched treatments used 214 fewer growing-degree days(GDDs) in 2014 and 262 fewer GDDs in 2015. In 2014, the RF treatment yielded 32.7%higher biomass than CK, although its 9.4% higher grain yield was not statistically significant. Also, RF used 17.9% less water and showed 33.1% higher water use efficiency(WUE) than CK. In 2015, RF and FF showed 56.2% and 49.5% higher yield, 15.0% and 4.5%lower water use(ET), and 63.4% and 75.7% higher WUE, respectively, than CK. RF markedly increased soil temperature in the early crop season, accelerated crop growth, reduced ET,and greatly increased crop yield and WUE. Compared with FF, RF had no obvious effect on crop growth rate, although soil temperature during the period between sowing and stem elongation was slightly increased. However, RF resulted in lower ET and higher WUE than FF. Effects of RF on soil water dynamics as well as its cost-effectiveness remain topics for further study.展开更多
The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast ...The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC.展开更多
Agricultural production plays an important role in affecting atmospheric nitrous oxide (N20) concentrations. Field measurements were conducted in Dalian City, Liaoning Province in Northeast China from two consecutiv...Agricultural production plays an important role in affecting atmospheric nitrous oxide (N20) concentrations. Field measurements were conducted in Dalian City, Liaoning Province in Northeast China from two consecutive years (2009 and 2010) to estimate NzO emissions from a spring maize field, a main cropping system across the Chinese agricultural regions. The observed flux data in conjunction with the local climate, soil and management information were utilized to test a process-based model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC), for its applicability for the cropping system. The validated DNDC was then used for exploring strategies to reduce N20 emissions from the target field. The results showed that the major N20 pulse emissions occurred with duration of about 3-5 d after fertilizer application in both years 2009 and 2010, which on average accounted for about 60% of the total N20 emissions each year. Rainfall and fertilizer application were the major factors influencing the N20 emissions from spring maize field. The average N20 flUXeS from the CK (control plot, without fertilization) and FP (traditional chemical N fertilizer) treatments were 23.1 and 60.6 gg m-2 h-~ in 2009, respectively, and 21.5 and 64.3 gg m-2 h-~ in 2010, respectively. The emission factors (EFs) of the applied N fertilizer (270 kg N ha-1) as N20- N were 0.62% in 2009 and 0.77% in 2010, respectively. The comparison of modeled daily NzO emission fluxes against observations indicated that the DNDC model had a good performance even if without adjusting the internal parameters. The modeled results showed that management practices such as no-till, changing timing or rate of fertilizer application, increasing residue incorporation, and other technically applicable measures could effectively reduce N20 emissions from the tested fields. Our study indicated that avoiding application of N fertilizers at heavy rainfall events or splitting the fertilizer into more applications would be the most feasible approaches to reduce N20 emissions from spring maize production in Northeast China.展开更多
Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to me...Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)-1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.展开更多
Agricultural climatic resources (such as light,temperature,and water) are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization ca...Agricultural climatic resources (such as light,temperature,and water) are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 (0.25° ×0.25°) during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index (Isr),an average efficacy suitability index (Ise),and an average resource utilization index (K),are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.展开更多
【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避...【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避灾以及保障其高产稳产提供科学依据。【方法】选取东北地区春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域,基于ISIMIP输出的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.53种气候情景的1981—2060年逐日气象资料以及53个农业气象观测站1981—2014年春玉米生育期资料,选取作物水分亏缺指数(crop water deficit index,CWDI)为农业干旱指标,分析东北地区春玉米不同生育时期不同等级干旱时空分布特征,选择最优概率理论分布函数进行干旱指数序列的概率估算,基于信息扩散理论估算得到各点春玉米不同等级干旱风险,构建干旱风险指数,评估未来不同气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及未来各等级风险区的空间格局变化。【结果】(1)1981—2014年东北地区春玉米全生育期干旱指数总体呈西南高东北低的特征,表现为内蒙古东四盟(57.3%)>黑龙江省(40.6%)>辽宁省(39.5%)>吉林省(38.9%)。(2)研究区域春玉米生育中期干旱指数整体高于生育前期和生育后期。其中,2030s和2050s研究区域春玉米生育前期干旱风险概率为轻旱>中旱≈重旱>特旱,生育中期干旱风险概率为特旱>重旱>轻旱≈中旱,生育后期干旱风险概率轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱。(3)1981—2060年,SSP1-2.6低排放情景下,东北地区春玉米较高等级干旱风险发生概率将减少,极高和较高干旱风险区明显向西南收缩,2030s和2050s面积占比分别减少5.4%和9.6%、0.8%和2.5%;而SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5两个高排放情景下,较高等级干旱风险发生概率增加,且较高干旱风险区向东北扩张,2050s面积占比分别增加8.5%和9.7%。【结论】基于干旱风险指数的未来干旱风险时空分布格局中,东北春玉米干旱风险呈现由西南向东北减少的特征,且未来SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,较高干旱风险区向东北方向扩张,需关注作物关键生育时期提出针对性的防御措施。展开更多
Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are st...Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model (SPAM) has been developed for presenting spa- tio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980-2010. The simulated results indicated that (1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48~N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation (less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation (mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m); (2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, espe- cially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; (3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.展开更多
基金supported by the National Maize Industry Technology R&D Center,Ministry of Agriculture(CRRS-02)the National Key Technology R&D Program of China(2011BAD16B14and 2013BAD07B04)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31401342)the National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB150401)
文摘A two-year field experiment(2012–2013) was conducted to investigate the effects of two tillage methods and five maize straw mulching patterns on the yield, water consumption,and water use efficiency(WUE) of spring maize(Zea mays L.) in the northern Huang–Huai–Hai valley of China. Compared to rotary tillage, subsoil tillage resulted in decreases in water consumption by 6.3–7.8% and increases in maize yield by 644.5–673.9 kg ha-1, soil water content by 2.9–3.0%, and WUE by 12.7–15.2%. Chopped straw mulching led to higher yield,soil water content, and WUE as well as lower water consumption than prostrate whole straw mulching. Mulching with 50% chopped straw had the largest positive effects on maize yield, soil water content, and WUE among the five mulching treatments. Tillage had greater influence on maize yield than straw mulching, whereas straw mulching had greater influence on soil water content, water consumption, and WUE than tillage. These results suggest that 50% chopped straw mulching with subsoil tillage is beneficial in spring maize production aiming at high yield and high WUE in the Huang–Huai–Hai valley.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Fundation of China (31571601)the Special Scientific Research Fund of Agricultural Public Welfare Profession of China (201503121-11)
文摘High-temperature stress (HTS) at the grain-filling stage in spring maize (Zea mays L.) is the main obstacle to increasing productivity in the North China Plain (NCP). To solve this problem, the physiological mechanisms of HTS, and its causes and impacts, must be understood. The HTS threshold of the duration and rate in grain filling, photosynthetic characteristics (e.g., the thermal stability of thylakoid membrane, chlorophyll and electron transfer, photosynthetic carbon assimilation), water status (e.g., leaf water potential, turgor and leaf relative water content) and signal transduction in maize are reviewed. The HTS threshold for spring maize is highly desirable to be appraised to prevent damages by unfavorable temperatures during grain filling in this region. HTS has negative impacts on maize photosynthesis by damaging the stability of the thylakoid membrane structure and degrading chlorophyll, which reduces light energy absorption, transfer and photosynthetic carbon assimilation. In addition, photosynthesis can be deleteriously affected due to inhibited root growth under HTS in which plants decrease their water-absorbing capacity, leaf water potential, turgor, leaf relative water content, and stomatal conductance. Inhibited photosynthesis decrease the supply of photosynthates to the grain, leading to falling of kernel weight and even grain yield. However, maize does not respond passively to HTS. The plant transduces the abscisic acid (ABA) signal to express heat shock proteins (HSPs), which are molecular chaperones that participate in protein refolding and degradation caused by HTS. HSPs stabilize target protein configurations and indirectly improve thylakoid membrane structure stability, light energy absorption and passing, electron transport, and fixed carbon assimilation, leading to improved photosynthesis. ABA also induces stomatal closure to maintain a good water status for photosynthesis. Based on understanding of such mechanisms, strategies for alleviating HTS at the grain-filling stage in spring maize are summarized. Eight strategies have the potential to improve the ability of spring maize to avoid or tolerate HTS in this study, e.g., adjusting sowing date to avoid HTS, breeding heat-tolerance varieties, and tillage methods, optimizing irrigation, heat acclimation, regulating chemicals, nutritional management, and planting geometric design to tolerate HTS. Based on the single technology breakthrough, a com- prehensive integrated technical system is needed to improve heat tolerance and increase the spring maize yield in the NCP.
基金financially supported by the Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest (No. 201103001)
文摘To identify a strategy for earlier sowing and harvesting of spring maize(Zea mays L.) in an alternative maize–maize double cropping system, a 2-year field experiment was performed at Quzhou experimental station of China Agricultural University in 2014 and 2015. A short-season cultivar, Demeiya number 1(KX7349), was used in the experiment. Soil temperature to 5 cm depth in the early crop growth stage, crop growth, crop yield, and water use of different treatments(plastic film-mulched raised bed(RF) and flat field without plastic film mulching(CK) in 2014; RF, plastic film-mulched flat field(FF), and CK in 2015)were measured or calculated and compared. Soil temperature in the film-mulched treatments was consistently higher than that in CK(1.6–3.5 °C in average) during the early growth stage. Crops in plastic film-mulched treatments used 214 fewer growing-degree days(GDDs) in 2014 and 262 fewer GDDs in 2015. In 2014, the RF treatment yielded 32.7%higher biomass than CK, although its 9.4% higher grain yield was not statistically significant. Also, RF used 17.9% less water and showed 33.1% higher water use efficiency(WUE) than CK. In 2015, RF and FF showed 56.2% and 49.5% higher yield, 15.0% and 4.5%lower water use(ET), and 63.4% and 75.7% higher WUE, respectively, than CK. RF markedly increased soil temperature in the early crop season, accelerated crop growth, reduced ET,and greatly increased crop yield and WUE. Compared with FF, RF had no obvious effect on crop growth rate, although soil temperature during the period between sowing and stem elongation was slightly increased. However, RF resulted in lower ET and higher WUE than FF. Effects of RF on soil water dynamics as well as its cost-effectiveness remain topics for further study.
基金Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-QN202)Global Climate Change Research National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB950304)+1 种基金Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-BR-14)Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GYHY200906018)
文摘The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC.
基金funded by the Special Fund for Agriculture-Scientific Non-Profit Research, China(201103039)the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB417104)by the Basic R&D Operations Special Fund forthe Central Level Non-Profit Research Institute of China(2012-35)
文摘Agricultural production plays an important role in affecting atmospheric nitrous oxide (N20) concentrations. Field measurements were conducted in Dalian City, Liaoning Province in Northeast China from two consecutive years (2009 and 2010) to estimate NzO emissions from a spring maize field, a main cropping system across the Chinese agricultural regions. The observed flux data in conjunction with the local climate, soil and management information were utilized to test a process-based model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC), for its applicability for the cropping system. The validated DNDC was then used for exploring strategies to reduce N20 emissions from the target field. The results showed that the major N20 pulse emissions occurred with duration of about 3-5 d after fertilizer application in both years 2009 and 2010, which on average accounted for about 60% of the total N20 emissions each year. Rainfall and fertilizer application were the major factors influencing the N20 emissions from spring maize field. The average N20 flUXeS from the CK (control plot, without fertilization) and FP (traditional chemical N fertilizer) treatments were 23.1 and 60.6 gg m-2 h-~ in 2009, respectively, and 21.5 and 64.3 gg m-2 h-~ in 2010, respectively. The emission factors (EFs) of the applied N fertilizer (270 kg N ha-1) as N20- N were 0.62% in 2009 and 0.77% in 2010, respectively. The comparison of modeled daily NzO emission fluxes against observations indicated that the DNDC model had a good performance even if without adjusting the internal parameters. The modeled results showed that management practices such as no-till, changing timing or rate of fertilizer application, increasing residue incorporation, and other technically applicable measures could effectively reduce N20 emissions from the tested fields. Our study indicated that avoiding application of N fertilizers at heavy rainfall events or splitting the fertilizer into more applications would be the most feasible approaches to reduce N20 emissions from spring maize production in Northeast China.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41401104)Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(D2015302017)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(2015M570167)Science and Technology Planning Project of Hebei Academy of Science(16101)
文摘Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)-1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201106020)ChinaMeteorological Administration Special Climate Change Research Fund(CCSF201346)
文摘Agricultural climatic resources (such as light,temperature,and water) are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 (0.25° ×0.25°) during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index (Isr),an average efficacy suitability index (Ise),and an average resource utilization index (K),are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.
文摘【目的】干旱是影响中国农业生产的主要自然灾害之一。东北地区作为中国最大的玉米生产基地,气候变化背景下干旱频发重发严重影响玉米的高产稳产。评估未来气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及其空间格局变化,为该地区春玉米防旱避灾以及保障其高产稳产提供科学依据。【方法】选取东北地区春玉米潜在种植区为研究区域,基于ISIMIP输出的SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.53种气候情景的1981—2060年逐日气象资料以及53个农业气象观测站1981—2014年春玉米生育期资料,选取作物水分亏缺指数(crop water deficit index,CWDI)为农业干旱指标,分析东北地区春玉米不同生育时期不同等级干旱时空分布特征,选择最优概率理论分布函数进行干旱指数序列的概率估算,基于信息扩散理论估算得到各点春玉米不同等级干旱风险,构建干旱风险指数,评估未来不同气候情景下东北地区春玉米干旱发生风险及未来各等级风险区的空间格局变化。【结果】(1)1981—2014年东北地区春玉米全生育期干旱指数总体呈西南高东北低的特征,表现为内蒙古东四盟(57.3%)>黑龙江省(40.6%)>辽宁省(39.5%)>吉林省(38.9%)。(2)研究区域春玉米生育中期干旱指数整体高于生育前期和生育后期。其中,2030s和2050s研究区域春玉米生育前期干旱风险概率为轻旱>中旱≈重旱>特旱,生育中期干旱风险概率为特旱>重旱>轻旱≈中旱,生育后期干旱风险概率轻旱>中旱>重旱>特旱。(3)1981—2060年,SSP1-2.6低排放情景下,东北地区春玉米较高等级干旱风险发生概率将减少,极高和较高干旱风险区明显向西南收缩,2030s和2050s面积占比分别减少5.4%和9.6%、0.8%和2.5%;而SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5两个高排放情景下,较高等级干旱风险发生概率增加,且较高干旱风险区向东北扩张,2050s面积占比分别增加8.5%和9.7%。【结论】基于干旱风险指数的未来干旱风险时空分布格局中,东北春玉米干旱风险呈现由西南向东北减少的特征,且未来SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,较高干旱风险区向东北方向扩张,需关注作物关键生育时期提出针对性的防御措施。
基金Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171328, No.41201184, No.41101537 National Basic Program of China, No.2010CB951502
文摘Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model (SPAM) has been developed for presenting spa- tio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980-2010. The simulated results indicated that (1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48~N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation (less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation (mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m); (2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, espe- cially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; (3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.