Spatiotemporal analysis of drought variability based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.

Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）, based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spa- tial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has oc- curred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has in- creased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, -26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Nino effect.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Shandong Province,China and Their Relationship with Food Loss

Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.

Assessment of Future Drought in Southwest China Based on CMIP5 Multimodel Projections

In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.

SPEI_(PM)-based research on drought impact on maize yield in North China Plain

The calculation method of potential evapotranspiration（PET） was improved by adopting a more reliable PET estimate based on the Penman-Monteith equation into the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（SPEI） in this study（SPEI PM）. This improvement increased the applicability of SPEI in North China Plain（NCP）. The historic meteorological data during 1962–2011 were used to calculate SPEI PM. The detrended yields of maize from Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Beijing, and Tianjin provinces/cities of NCP were obtained by linear sliding average method. Then regression analysis was made to study the relationships between detrended yields and SPEI values. Different time scales were applied, and thus SPEI PM was mentioned as SPEI PMk-j（k=time scale, 1, 2, 3, 4,…, 24 mon; j=month, 1, 2, 3,..., 12）, among which SPEI PM3-8 reflected the water condition from June to August, a period of heavy precipitation and vigorous growth of maize in NCP. SPEI PM3-8 was highly correlated with detrended yield in this region, which can effectively evaluate the effect of drought on maize yield. Additionally, this relationship becomes more significant in recent 20 yr. The regression model based on the SPEI series explained 64.8% of the variability of the annual detrended yield in Beijing, 45.2% in Henan, 58.6% in Shandong, and 54.6% in Hebei. Moreover, when SPEI PM3-8 is in the range of –0.6 to 1.1, –0.9 to 0.8 and –0.8 to 2.3, the detrended yield increases in Shandong, Henan and Beijing. The yield increasing range was during normal water condition in Shandong and Henan, where precipitation was abundant. It indicated that the field management matched well with local water condition and thus allowed stable and high yield. Maize yield increase in these two provinces in the future can be realized by further improving water use efficiency and enhancing the stress resistance as well as yield stability. In Hebei and Beijing, the precipitation is less and thus the normal water condition cannot meet the high yield target. Increasing of water input and improving water use efficiency are both strategies for future yield increase. As global climate change became stronger and yield demands increased, the relationship between drought and maize yield became much closer in NCP too. The research of drought monitoring method and strategies for yield increase should be enhanced in the future, so as to provide strong supports for food security and agricultural sustainable development in China.

Daily SPEI Reveals Long-term Change in Drought Characteristics in Southwest China

Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) has been developed to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1960 to 2016, revealing the variability in drought characteristics across Southwest China. Daily data from142 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the daily SPEI at the annual and seasonal time scale. The Mann-Kendall test and the trend statistics were then applied to quantify the significance of drought trends, with the following results. 1) The regionally averaged intensity and duration of all-drought and severe drought showed increasing trends, while the intensity and duration of extreme drought exhibited decreasing trends. 2) Mixed(increasing/decreasing) trends were detected, in terms of intensity and duration, in the three types of drought events. In general, no evidence of significant trends(P < 0.05) was detected in the drought intensity and duration over the last 55 years at the annual timescale. Seasonally, spring was characterized by a severe drought trend for all drought and severe drought conditions, while extreme drought events in spring and summer were very severe. All drought intensities and durations showed an increasing trend across most regions, except in the northwestern parts of Sichuan Province. However, the areal extent of regions suffering increasing trends in severe and extreme drought became relatively smaller. 3) We identified the following drought hotspots: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from the 1960 s to the 1990 s, respectively. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guizhou Province in the 1970 s and 1980 s, and Yunnan Province in the 2000 s. Finally, this paper can benefit operational drought characterization with a day-to-day drought monitoring index, enabling a more risk-based drought management strategy in the context of global warming.

Analysis of spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Luanhe River Basin using different drought indices

Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index （sc-PDSI） were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to 1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following： the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.

Tree ring based drought variability in Northwest Tajikistan since 1895 AD

Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Central Asia.Forest trees are ecologically significant in the local environment,and therefore the tree ring analysis can provide a clear record of regional historical climate.This study analyzed the correlation between the tree ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica Komarov and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Northwest Tajikistan,based on 56 tree ring samples collected from Shahristan in the Pamir region.Climate data including precipitation,temperature and the SPEI were downloaded from the Climate Research Unit(CRU)TS 4.00.The COFECHA program was used for cross-dating,and the ARSTAN program was used to remove the growth trend of the tree itself and the influence of non-climatic factors on the growth of the trees.A significant correlation was found between the radial growth of J.turkestanica trees and the monthly mean SPEI of February–April.The monthly mean SPEI sequence of February–April during the period of 1895–2016 was reconstructed,and the reconstruction equation explained 42.5%of the variance.During the past 122 a(1895–2016),the study area has experienced three wetter periods(precipitation above average):1901–1919,1945–1983 and 1995–2010,and four drier periods(precipitation below average):1895–1900,1920–1944,1984–1994 and 2011–2016.The spatial correlation analysis revealed that the monthly mean SPEI reconstruction sequence of February–April could be used to characterize the large-scale dry-wet variations in Northwest Tajikistan during the period of 1895–2016.This study could provide comparative data for validating the projections of climate models and scientific basis for managing water resources in Tajikistan in the context of climate change.

Drought variability and its connection with large-scale atmospheric circulations in Haihe River Basin

Drought is one of the most widespread and devastating extreme climate events when water availability is significantly below normal levels for a long period.In recent years,the Haihe River Basin has been threatened by intensified droughts.Therefore,characterization of droughts in the basin is of great importance for sustainable water resources management.In this study,two multi-scalar drought indices,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)with potential evapotranspiration calculated by the PenmaneMonteith equation and the standardized precipitation index(SPI),were used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics from 1961 to 2017 in the Haihe River Basin.In addition,the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were used to further explore the potential links between drought trends and climatic anomalies.An increasing tendency in drought duration was detected over the Haihe River Basin with frequent drought events occurring in the period from 1997 to 2003.The results derived from both SPEI and SPI demonstrated that summer droughts were significantly intensified.The analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns indicated that the intensified summer droughts could be attributed to the positive geopotential height anomalies in Asian mid-high latitudes and the insufficient water vapor fluxes transported from the south.©2021 Hohai University.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Meteorological drought in semi-arid regions:A case study of Iran

Drought occurs in almost all climate zones and is characterized by prolonged water deficiency due to unbalanced demand and supply of water,persistent insufficient precipitation,lack of moisture,and high evapotranspiration.Drought caused by insufficient precipitation is a temporary and recurring meteorological event.Precipitation in semi-arid regions is different from that in other regions,ranging from 50 to 750 mm.In general,the semi-arid regions in the west and north of Iran received more precipitation than those in the east and south.The Terrestrial Climate(TerraClimate)data,including monthly precipitation,minimum temperature,maximum temperature,potential evapotranspiration,and the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)developed by the University of Idaho,were used in this study.The PDSI data was directly obtained from the Google Earth Engine platform.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)on two different scales were calculated in time series and also both SPI and SPEI were shown in spatial distribution maps.The result showed that normal conditions were a common occurrence in the semi-arid regions of Iran over the majority of years from 2000 to 2020,according to a spatiotemporal study of the SPI at 3-month and 12-month time scales as well as the SPEI at 3-month and 12-month time scales.Moreover,the PDSI detected extreme dry years during 2000-2003 and in 2007,2014,and 2018.In many semi-arid regions of Iran,the SPI at 3-month time scale is higher than the SPEI at 3-month time scale in 2000,2008,2014,2015,and 2018.In general,this study concluded that the semi-arid regions underwent normal weather conditions from 2000 to 2020.In a way,moderate,severe,and extreme dry occurred with a lesser percentage,gradually decreasing.According to the PDSI,during 2000-2003 and 2007-2014,extreme dry struck practically all hot semi-arid regions of Iran.Several parts of the cold semi-arid regions,on the other hand,only experienced moderate to severe dry from 2000 to 2003,except for the eastern areas and wetter regions.The significance of this study is the determination of the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought in semi-arid regions of Iran using strongly validated data from TerraClimate.

Comprehensive drought monitoring in Yunnan Province, China using multisource remote sensing data

Development of drought monitoring techniques is important for understanding and mitigating droughts and for rational agricultural management. This study used data from multiple sources, including MOD13 A3, TRMM 3 B43, and SRTMDEM, for Yunnan Province, China from 2009 to 2018 to calculate the tropical rainfall condition index(TRCI), vegetation condition index(VCI), temperature condition index(TCI), and elevation factors. Principal component analysis(PCA) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) were used to construct comprehensive drought monitoring models for Yunnan Province. The reliability of the models was verified, following which the drought situation in Yunnan Province for the past ten years was analysed. The results showed that:(1) The comprehensive drought index(CDI) had a high correlation with the standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, temperature vegetation dryness index, and CLDAS(China Meteorological Administration land data assimilation system), indicating that the CDI was a strong indicator of drought through meteorological, remote sensing and soil moisture monitoring.(2) The droughts from 2009 to 2018 showed generally consistent spatiotemporal changes. Droughts occurred in most parts of the province, with an average drought frequency of 29% and four droughtprone centres.(3) Monthly drought coverage during 2009 to 2014 exceeded that over 2015 to 2018. January had the largest average drought coverage over the study period(61.92%). Droughts at most stations during the remaining months except for October exhibited a weakening trend(slope > 0). The CDI provides a novel approach for drought monitoring in areas with complex terrain such as Yunnan Province.

Effects of Drought on Net Primary Productivity:Roles of Temperature,Drought Intensity,and Duration

Northeast China has experienced frequent droughts over the past fifteen years. However, the effects of droughts on net primary productivity(NPP) in Northeast China remain unclear. In this paper, the droughts that occurred in Northeast China between 1999 and 2013 were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI). The NPP standardized anomaly index(NPP-SAI) was used to evaluate NPP anomalies. The years of 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2007 were further investigated in order to explore the influence of droughts on NPP at different time scales(3, 6, and 12 months). Based on the NPP-SAI of normal areas, we found droughts overall decreased NPP by 112.06 Tg C between 1999 and 2013. Lower temperatures at the beginning of the growing season could cause declines in NPP by shortening the length of the growing season. Mild drought or short-term drought with higher temperatures might increase NPP, and weak intensity droughts intensified the lag effects of droughts on NPP.

A Multi-scale Perspective on Drought Monitoring and Assessment for the Pearl River Basin

It is accepted that climate change has a great impact on water cycle and regional water balance,and thus it would change the formation and evolution conditions of drought in some degree. By using data at 42 meteorological stations of the Pearl River Basin,the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index（ SPEI） at different time scales was calculated. Based on the SPEIs of 1- 12 months,a newly proposed index for drought--Joint Drought Index（ JDI） was established under the multi-scale perspective through the copula function. Since short-term SPEIs are essential for the identification of emerging droughts and long-term SPEIs are useful for prolonged droughts,the JDI,which integrates all the usefull informations of drought and can thus form an overall judgement,is superior than the single SPEI in drought monitoring. By the forcast evaluation system and comparison to the actual drought,the accuracy and effectiveness of JDI in drought monitoring were verified. In general,JDI can be used as a new ideal index for future drought monitoring and assessment. Additionly,we analyzed the spatio-temperal characteristics of drought across the Pearl River Basin using the JDI. The results indicate that mild drought was the most frequent drought occurred in the Pearl River Basin over the past half century,and moderate drought followed. Severe drought and extreme drought would appear occasionally while exceptional drought could hardly be found. A dry-wet-dry interdecadal variation pattern had been found from the 1960 s to the 2000 s. Since the 21 stcentury,an obvious trend toward drought can be observed in the whole basin,especially in the Xijiang subbasin,which,consequently,poses an increasing challenge for the water resource planning and management.

Response of Vegetation Cover Change to Drought at Different Time-scales in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region,China

Dominated by an arid and semiarid continental climate,the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region(BTSSR)is a typical ecologically fragile region with frequently occurring droughts.To provide information for regional vegetation protection and drought prevention,we assessed the relations between vegetation cover change(measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)at different time-scales,in different growth stages,in different subregions and for different vegetation types based on the Pearson's correlation coefficient in the BTSSR from 2000 to 2017.Results showed that 88.19%of the vegetated areas experienced increased NDVI in the growing season;48.3%of the vegetated areas experi-enced significantly increased NDVI(P<0.05)and were mainly in the south of the BTSSR.During the growing season,a wetter climate contributed to the increased vegetation cover from 2000 to 2017,and NDVI anomalies were closely related to SPEI.The maximum correlation coefficient in the growing season(Rmax)was significantly positive(P<0.05)in 97.84%of the total vegetated areas.In the vegetated areas with significantly positive Rmax,pixels with short time-scales(1-3 mon)accounted for the largest proportion(33.9%).The sensitivity of vegetation to the impact of drought rose first and then decreased in the growing season,with a peak in July.Compared with two subregions in the south,subregions in the north of the BTSSR were more sensitive to the impacts of drought variations,especially in the Xilingol Plateau and Wuzhumuqin Basin.All four major vegetation types were sensitive to the effects of drought variations,especially grasslands.The time-scales of the most impacting droughts varied with growth stages,regions,and vegetation types.These results can help us understand the relations between vegetation and droughts,which are important for ecological restoration and drought prevention.

Meteorological Drought in Nujiang and Lancang River Basins during Recent 50 Years

Drought is one of the main natural disasters that cause economic loss in the basins of international rivers such as Nujiang and Lancang rivers. Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 31 meteorological stations in Nujiang and Lancang river basins in Yunnan Province during 1965-2013, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) in each of the two bio-climate zones was calculated. In addition, the drought process in annual, seasonal and monthly scale was analyzed respectively to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics and the intensity variation of meteorological drought in Nujiang and Lancang river basins in Yunnan Province. The results showed that there was a significant increasing trend in seasonal(especially winter's) and monthly drought since the late 1970 s; the drought occurred in the two bio-climate zones showed no obvious spatial distinction, and it was synchronized with that occurred throughout Yunnan Province; and in the recent 50 years, the significant increase of drought in the study area may be attributed to the significant rise in temperature, rather than the slight decline of the precipitation.

Tree growth is more limited by drought in rear-edge forests most of the times

Background:Equatorward,rear-edge tree populations are natural monitors to estimate species vulnerability to climate change.According to biogeographical theory,exposition to drought events increases with increasing aridity towards the equator and the growth of southern tree populations will be more vulnerable to drought than in central populations.However,the ecological and biogeographical margins can mismatch due to the impact of ecological factors(topography,soils)or tree-species acclimation that can blur large-scale geographical imprints in trees responses to drought making northern populations more drought limited.Methods:We tested these ideas in six tree species,three angiosperms(Fagus sylvatica,Quercus robur,Quercus petraea)and three gymnosperms(Abies alba,Pinus sylvestris and Pinus uncinata)by comparing rear-edge tree populations subjected to different degrees of aridity.We used dendrochronology to compare the radial-growth patterns of these species in northern,intermediate,and southern tree populations at the continental rear edge.Results and conclusions:We found marked variations in growth variability between species with coherent patterns of stronger drought signals in the tree-ring series of the southern populations of F.sylvatica,P.sylvestris,and A.alba.This was also observed in species from cool-wet sites(P.uncinata and Q.robur),despite their limited responsiveness to drought.However,in the case of Q.petraea the intermediate population showed the strongest relationship to drought.For drought-sensitive species as F.sylvatica and P.sylvestris,southern populations presented more variable growth which was enhanced by cool-wet conditions from late spring to summer.We found a trend of enhanced vulnerability to drought in these two species.The response of tree growth to drought has a marked biogeographical component characterized by increased drought sensitivity in southern populations even within the species distribution rear edge.Nevertheless,the relationship between tree growth and drought varied between species suggesting that biogeographical and ecological limits do not always overlap as in the case of Q.petraea.In widespread species showing enhanced vulnerability to drought,as F.sylvatica and P.sylvestris,increased vulnerability to climate warming in their rear edges is forecasted.Therefore,we encourage the monitoring and conservation of such marginal tree populations.

Interdecadal variation of drought patterns and associated influencing factors in the north-south transitional zone of China

In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood.This study examined the multidecadal changes in drought characteristics(frequency,duration,and severity)and their geographical focal points within China's north-south transitional zone,the Qinling-Daba Mountains(QDM),from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).In addition,a suite of eight scenarios,correlation analysis,and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics.The results indicate the following:(1)From 1960 to 2017,the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency,duration,and severity,the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s,but drought intensified thereafter.Specifically,the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity,while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events.(2)Spatially,the Qinling Mountains,particularly the western Qinling Mountain,exhibited higher drought frequency,duration,and severity than the Daba Mountains.This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain.(3)Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation.Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions,thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes,with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming.The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes,with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation,and vice versa for increased precipitation.

Response of drought to climate extremes in a semi-arid inland river basin in China

Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.

近五十年中国干旱半干旱区正在变湿吗?

Recently, whether drylands of Northwest China(NW) have become wetting has been attracting surging attentions. By comparing the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices(SPEI) derived from two different potential evapotranspiration estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite algorithm(SPEI_th) and the Penman-Monteith equation(SPEI_pm), we try to resolve the controversy. The analysis indicated that air temperature has been warming significantly at a rate of 0.4℃ decade^(-1) in the last five decades and the more arid areas are more prone to becoming warmer. Annual precipitation of the entire study area increased insignificantly by 3.6 mm decade^(-1) from 1970 to 2019 but NW presented significantly increasing trends. Further, the SPEI_th and SPEI_pm demonstrated similar wetting-drying-wetting trends(three phases) in China’s drylands during 1970–2019. The common periodical signals in the middle phase were identified both by SPEI_th and SPEI_pm wavelet analysis. Analysis with different temporal intervals can lead to divergent or even opposite results. The attribution analysis revealed that precipitation is the main climatic factor driving the drought trend transition. This study hints that the wetting trend’s direction and magnitude hinge on the targeted temporal periods and regions.