This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We ...This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using second generation tests which allow cross section dependency among series and panel unit root test based on structural break advanced by Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro and Lopez-Bazo （2005）. We find series as a stationary process with structural breaks according to Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, while we find series as unit root process with second generation panel unit root test. According to the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, we find the evidence of absence of hysteresis in analyzed countries. As a result, temporary shocks have temporary effects on unemployment instead of permanent effect. Structural factors can affect the natural rate of unemployment and, therefore, unemployment would be stationary around a process that is subject to structural breaks. So, there still exists a unique natural rate of unemployment to which the economy eventually will converge.展开更多
This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean...This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169~ C （10 yr） - 1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data -- much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865~C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43.展开更多
In this article, the unit root test for AR（p） model with GARCH errors is considered. The Dickey-Fuller test statistics are rewritten in the form of self-normalized sums, and the asymptotic distribution of the test s...In this article, the unit root test for AR（p） model with GARCH errors is considered. The Dickey-Fuller test statistics are rewritten in the form of self-normalized sums, and the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is derived under the weak conditions.展开更多
A great deal of economic problems are related to detecting the stability of time series data,where the main interest is in the unit root test.In this paper,we consider the unit root testing problem with errors being l...A great deal of economic problems are related to detecting the stability of time series data,where the main interest is in the unit root test.In this paper,we consider the unit root testing problem with errors being long-memory processes with the LARCH structure.A new test statistic is developed by using the random weighted bootstrap method.It turns out that the proposed statistic has a chisquared distribution asymptotically regardless of the process being stationary or nonst at ionary,and with or without an intercept term.The simulation results show that the statistic has a desired finite sample performance in terms of both size and power.A real data application is also given relying on the inflation rate data of 17 countries.展开更多
In this article, we use the unrestricted two-regime autoregressive threshold model to test both nonlinearity and stationarity of China's real exchange rate against its Hong Kong and Macao special administrative re...In this article, we use the unrestricted two-regime autoregressive threshold model to test both nonlinearity and stationarity of China's real exchange rate against its Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions(SARs). Our main finding is that China's real exchange rate is neither linear nor stationary, indicating that the purchasing power parity does not hold between China Mainland and its two SARs, which implies, to certain extent, the three economies may not meet the condition of constituting an optimal currency area.展开更多
在全球气候变化和高强度人类活动的共同影响下,许多流域天然水循环过程受到破坏。径流序列呈现明显的非平稳特性,给水资源规划、管理、预测和调控带来一定的挑战。揭示径流序列的非平稳特性可以有效应对全球气候变化下的复杂水问题,对...在全球气候变化和高强度人类活动的共同影响下,许多流域天然水循环过程受到破坏。径流序列呈现明显的非平稳特性,给水资源规划、管理、预测和调控带来一定的挑战。揭示径流序列的非平稳特性可以有效应对全球气候变化下的复杂水问题,对降低水文分析难度和提高径流预测精度具有十分重要的意义。研究以汾河上游兰村站为研究对象,分析该站1958-2016年年径流和月径流序列是否平稳。首先从随机水文学角度,采用Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析法识别径流序列的趋势、突变和周期特征。在此基础上,从统计水文学角度引入Ng-Perron单位根检验方法。通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验和散点图法选择合适的检验方程,对径流序列进行广义最小二乘法(Generalized Least Squares,GLS)退势,并利用修正的信息准则(Modified information criterion,MIC)计算最优时间滞后阶数,判别径流序列是否具有非平稳性。结果显示,径流序列存在趋势、突变和周期成分,为非平稳径流序列。同时Ng-Perron单位根检验表明,该站年、月径流序列在1%显著性水平上具有非平稳特性。相较传统单位根检验方法,Ng-Perron单位根检验采用更为稳健的修正检验统计量,显著调整小样本情况下水平扭曲的现象,具有更好检验水平和功效,因而可以得到更合理的检验结果。研究成果为径流序列非平稳性检验理论的进一步改进及径流预测模型发展与应用提供参考。展开更多
文摘This study tests the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment in fifteen OECD countries by using panel unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We apply annual unemployment rates covering 1985-2008 periods. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using second generation tests which allow cross section dependency among series and panel unit root test based on structural break advanced by Carrion-i-Silvestre, Barrio-Castro and Lopez-Bazo （2005）. We find series as a stationary process with structural breaks according to Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, while we find series as unit root process with second generation panel unit root test. According to the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. （2005） test, we find the evidence of absence of hysteresis in analyzed countries. As a result, temporary shocks have temporary effects on unemployment instead of permanent effect. Structural factors can affect the natural rate of unemployment and, therefore, unemployment would be stationary around a process that is subject to structural breaks. So, there still exists a unique natural rate of unemployment to which the economy eventually will converge.
文摘This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169~ C （10 yr） - 1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data -- much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865~C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(1047112610671176).
文摘In this article, the unit root test for AR（p） model with GARCH errors is considered. The Dickey-Fuller test statistics are rewritten in the form of self-normalized sums, and the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is derived under the weak conditions.
基金supported by the NNSF of China(Grant Nos.11971208 and 11601197)the NNSF of China(Grant No.61973145)+5 种基金the Outstanding Youth Fund Project of the Science and Technology Department of Jiangxi Province(Grant No.20224ACB211003)supported by the Science and Technology Research Project of Education Department of Jiangxi Province(Grant No.GJJ200545)the Postgraduate Innovation Project of Jiangxi Province(Grant No.YC2021–B124)NSSF of China(Grant No.21BTJ035)supported by the National Major Social Science Project of China(Grant No.21&ZD152)Natural Science Project of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.jxsq2023201048)。
文摘A great deal of economic problems are related to detecting the stability of time series data,where the main interest is in the unit root test.In this paper,we consider the unit root testing problem with errors being long-memory processes with the LARCH structure.A new test statistic is developed by using the random weighted bootstrap method.It turns out that the proposed statistic has a chisquared distribution asymptotically regardless of the process being stationary or nonst at ionary,and with or without an intercept term.The simulation results show that the statistic has a desired finite sample performance in terms of both size and power.A real data application is also given relying on the inflation rate data of 17 countries.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71373219)
文摘In this article, we use the unrestricted two-regime autoregressive threshold model to test both nonlinearity and stationarity of China's real exchange rate against its Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions(SARs). Our main finding is that China's real exchange rate is neither linear nor stationary, indicating that the purchasing power parity does not hold between China Mainland and its two SARs, which implies, to certain extent, the three economies may not meet the condition of constituting an optimal currency area.
文摘在全球气候变化和高强度人类活动的共同影响下,许多流域天然水循环过程受到破坏。径流序列呈现明显的非平稳特性,给水资源规划、管理、预测和调控带来一定的挑战。揭示径流序列的非平稳特性可以有效应对全球气候变化下的复杂水问题,对降低水文分析难度和提高径流预测精度具有十分重要的意义。研究以汾河上游兰村站为研究对象,分析该站1958-2016年年径流和月径流序列是否平稳。首先从随机水文学角度,采用Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析法识别径流序列的趋势、突变和周期特征。在此基础上,从统计水文学角度引入Ng-Perron单位根检验方法。通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验和散点图法选择合适的检验方程,对径流序列进行广义最小二乘法(Generalized Least Squares,GLS)退势,并利用修正的信息准则(Modified information criterion,MIC)计算最优时间滞后阶数,判别径流序列是否具有非平稳性。结果显示,径流序列存在趋势、突变和周期成分,为非平稳径流序列。同时Ng-Perron单位根检验表明,该站年、月径流序列在1%显著性水平上具有非平稳特性。相较传统单位根检验方法,Ng-Perron单位根检验采用更为稳健的修正检验统计量,显著调整小样本情况下水平扭曲的现象,具有更好检验水平和功效,因而可以得到更合理的检验结果。研究成果为径流序列非平稳性检验理论的进一步改进及径流预测模型发展与应用提供参考。
