Relationships between Terrain Features and Forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex terrain.In this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain regions.The terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope angle.The results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of orography.The minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−30%for every 200 m increase in terrain height error.The ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 35.4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill winds.Several sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(30%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.

Rainfall-triggered waste dump instability analysis based on surface 3D deformation in physical model test

Landslide is the second largest natural disaster after earthquake. It is of significance to study the evolution laws and failure mechanism of landslides based on its surface 3D deformation information. Based on the rainfall-triggered waste dump instability model test, we studied the failure mechanisms of the waste dump by integrating surface deformation and internal slope stress and proposed novel parameters for identifying landslide stability. We developed a noncontact measurement device, which can obtain millimeter-level 3D deformation data for surface scene in physical model test;Then we developed the similar materials and established a test model for a waste dump. Based on the failure characteristics of slope surface, internal stress of slope body and displacement contours during the whole process, we divided the slope instability process in model test into four stages: rainfall infiltration and surface erosion, shallow sliding, deep sliding, and overall instability. Based on the obtained surface deformation data, we calculated the volume change during slope instability process and compared it with the point displacement on slope surface. The results showed that the volume change can not only reflect the slow-ultra acceleration process of slope failure, but also fully reflect the above four stages and reduce the fluctuations caused by random factors. Finally, this paper proposed two stability identification parameters: the volume change rate above the slip surface and the relative velocity of volume change rate. According to the calculation of these two parameters in model test, they can be used for study the deformation and failure mechanism of slope stability.

A CFD Model to Evaluate Near-Surface Oil Spill from a Broken Loading Pipe in Shallow Coastal Waters

Oil spills continue to generate various issues and concerns regarding their effect and behavior in the marine environment,owing to the related potential for detrimental environmental,economic and social implications.It is essential to have a solid understanding of the ways in which oil interacts with the water and the coastal ecosystems that are located nearby.This study proposes a simplified model for predicting the plume-like transport behavior of heavy Bunker C fuel oil discharging downward from an acutely-angled broken pipeline located on the water surface.The results show that the spill overall profile is articulated in three major flow areas.The first,is the source field,i.e.,a region near the origin of the initial jet,followed by the intermediate or transport field,namely,the region where the jet oil flow transitions into an underwater oil plume flow and starts to move horizontally,and finally,the far-field,where the oil re-surface and spreads onto the shore at a significant distance from the spill site.The behavior of the oil in the intermediate field is investigated using a simplified injection-type oil spill model capable of mimicking the undersea trapping and lateral migration of an oil plume originating from a negatively buoyant jet spill.A rectangular domain with proper boundary conditions is used to implement the model.The Projection approach is used to discretize a modified version of the Navier-Stokes equations in two dimensions.A benchmark fluid flow issue is used to verify the model and the results indicate a reasonable relationship between specific gravity and depth as well as agreement with the aerial data and a vertical temperature profile plot.

Discontinuity development patterns and the challenges for 3D discrete fracture network modeling on complicated exposed rock surfaces

Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This study presents a systematic outcrop research of fracture pattern variations in a complicated rock slope,and the qualitative and quantitative study of the complex phenomena impact on threedimensional(3D)discrete fracture network(DFN)modeling.As the studies of the outcrop fracture pattern have been so far focused on local variations,thus,we put forward a statistical analysis of global variations.The entire outcrop is partitioned into several subzones,and the subzone-scale variability of fracture geometric properties is analyzed(including the orientation,the density,and the trace length).The results reveal significant variations in fracture characteristics(such as the concentrative degree,the average orientation,the density,and the trace length)among different subzones.Moreover,the density of fracture sets,which is approximately parallel to the slope surface,exhibits a notably higher value compared to other fracture sets across all subzones.To improve the accuracy of the DFN modeling,the effects of three common phenomena resulting from vegetation and rockfalls are qualitatively analyzed and the corresponding quantitative data processing solutions are proposed.Subsequently,the 3D fracture geometric parameters are determined for different areas of the high-steep rock slope in terms of the subzone dimensions.The results show significant variations in the same set of 3D fracture parameters across different regions with density differing by up to tenfold and mean trace length exhibiting differences of 3e4 times.The study results present precise geological structural information,improve modeling accuracy,and provide practical solutions for addressing complex outcrop issues.

Comparative Analysis of Statistical Thickness Models for the Determination of the External Specific Surface and the Surface of the Micropores of Materials: The Case of a Clay Concrete Stabilized Using Sugar Cane Molasses

In this work, four empirical models of statistical thickness, namely the models of Harkins and Jura, Hasley, Carbon Black and Jaroniec, were compared in order to determine the textural properties (external surface and surface of micropores) of a clay concrete without molasses and clay concretes stabilized with 8%, 12% and 16% molasses. The results obtained show that Hasley’s model can be used to obtain the external surfaces. However, it does not allow the surface of the micropores to be obtained, and is not suitable for the case of simple clay concrete (without molasses) and for clay concretes stabilized with molasses. The Carbon Black, Jaroniec and Harkins and Jura models can be used for clay concrete and stabilized clay concrete. However, the Carbon Black model is the most relevant for clay concrete and the Harkins and Jura model is for molasses-stabilized clay concrete. These last two models augur well for future research.

Estimation of surface geometry on combustion characteristics of AP/HTPB propellant under rapid depressurization

The 2D sandwich model serves as a potent tool in exploring the influence of surface geometry on the combustion attributes of Ammonium perchlorate/Hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene(AP/HTPB)propellant under rapid pressure decay.The thickness of the sandwich propellant is derived from slicing the 3D random particle packing,an approach that enables a more effective examination of the micro-flame structure.Comparative analysis of the predicted burning characteristics has been performed with experimental studies.The findings demonstrate a reasonable agreement,thereby validating the precision and soundness of the model.Based on the typical rapid depressurization environment of solid rocket motor(initial combustion pressure is 3 MPa and the maximum depressurization rate is 1000 MPa/s).A-type(a flatter surface),B-type(AP recesses from the combustion surface),and C-type(AP protrudes from the combustion surface)propellant combustion processes are numerically simulated.Upon comparison of the evolution of gas-phase flame between 0.1 and 1 ms,it is discerned that the flame strength and form created by the three sandwich models differ significantly at the beginning stage of depressurization,with the flame structures gradually becoming harmonized over time.Conclusions are drawn by comparison extinction times:the surface geometry plays a pivotal role in the combustion process,with AP protrusion favoring combustion the most.

Analysis of the interaction between bolt-reinforced rock and surface support in tunnels based on convergence-confinement method

To investigate the interaction of the bolt-reinforced rock and the surface support,an analytical model of the convergence-confinement type is proposed,considering the sequential installation of the fully grouted rockbolts and the surface support.The rock mass is assumed to be elastic-brittle-plastic material,obeying the linear Mohr-Coulomb criterion or the non-linear Hoek-Brown criterion.According to the strain states of the tunnel wall at bolt and surface support installation and the relative magnitude between the bolt length and the plastic depth during the whole process,six cases are categorized upon solving the problem.Each case is divided into three stages due to the different effects of the active rockbolts and the passive surface support.The fictitious pressure is introduced to quantify the threedimensional(3D)effect of the tunnel face,and thus,the actual physical location along the tunnel axis of the analytical section can be considered.By using the bolt-rock strain compatibility and the rocksurface support displacement compatibility conditions,the solutions of longitudinal tunnel displacement and the reaction pressure of surface support along the tunnel axis are obtained.The proposed analytical solutions are validated by a series of 3D numerical simulations.Extensive parametric studies are conducted to examine the effect of the typical parameters of rockbolts and surface support on the tunnel displacement and the reaction pressure of the surface support under different rock conditions.The results show that the rockbolts are more effective in controlling the tunnel displacement than the surface support,which should be installed as soon as possible with a suitable length.For tunnels excavated in weak rocks or with restricted displacement control requirements,the surface support should also be installed or closed timely with a certain stiffness.The proposed method provides a convenient alternative approach for the optimization of rockbolts and surface support at the preliminary stage of tunnel design.

Numerical simulations of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC)from OMIP experiments and its sensitivity to surface forcing

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC)plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the Earth’s climate system and is also a key metrical tool to verify oceanic general circulation models.Two OMIP(Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 1 and 2)simulations with LICOM3(version 3 of the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model)developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),are compared in this study.Both simulations well reproduce the fundamental characteristics of the AMOC,but the OMIP1 simulation shows a significantly stronger AMOC than the OMIP2 simulation.Because the LICOM3 configurations are identical between these two experiments,any differences between them must be attributed to the surface forcing data.Further analysis suggests that sea surface salinity(SSS)differences should be mainly responsible for the enhanced AMOC in the OMIP1 simulation,but sea surface temperature(SST)also play an unignorable role in modulating AMOC.In the North Atlantic,where deep convection occurs,the SSS in OMIP1 is more saline than that in OMIP1.We find that in the major region of deep convection,the change of SSS has more significant effect on density than the change of SST.As a result,the SSS was more saline than that in OMIP2,leading to stronger deep convection and subsequently intensify the AMOC.We conduct a series of numerical experiments with LICOM3,and the results confirmed that the changes in SSS have more significant effect on the strength of AMOC than the changes in SST.

Elucidating Dominant Factors Affecting Land Surface Hydrological Simulations of the Community Land Model over China

In order to compare the impacts of the choice of land surface model(LSM)parameterization schemes,meteorological forcing,and land surface parameters on land surface hydrological simulations,and explore to what extent the quality can be improved,a series of experiments with different LSMs,forcing datasets,and parameter datasets concerning soil texture and land cover were conducted.Six simulations are run for the Chinese mainland on 0.1°×0.1°grids from 1979 to 2008,and the simulated monthly soil moisture(SM),evapotranspiration(ET),and snow depth(SD)are then compared and assessed against observations.The results show that the meteorological forcing is the most important factor governing output.Beyond that,SM seems to be also very sensitive to soil texture information;SD is also very sensitive to snow parameterization scheme in the LSM.The Community Land Model version 4.5(CLM4.5),driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters(referred to as CMFD_CLM4.5_NEW),significantly improved the simulations in most cases over the Chinese mainland and its eight basins.It increased the correlation coefficient values from 0.46 to 0.54 for the SM modeling and from 0.54 to 0.67 for the SD simulations,and it decreased the root-mean-square error(RMSE)from 0.093 to 0.085 for the SM simulation and reduced the normalized RMSE from 1.277 to 0.201 for the SD simulations.This study indicates that the offline LSM simulation using a refined LSM driven by newly developed observation-based regional meteorological forcing and land surface parameters can better model reginal land surface hydrological processes.

Energy-efficient joint UAV secure communication and 3D trajectory optimization assisted by reconfigurable intelligent surfaces in the presence of eavesdroppers

We consider a scenario where an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV),a typical unmanned aerial system(UAS),transmits confidential data to a moving ground target in the presence of multiple eavesdroppers.Multiple friendly reconfigurable intelligent surfaces(RISs) help to secure the UAV-target communication and improve the energy efficiency of the UAV.We formulate an optimization problem to minimize the energy consumption of the UAV,subject to the mobility constraint of the UAV and that the achievable secrecy rate at the target is over a given threshold.We present an online planning method following the framework of model predictive control(MPC) to jointly optimize the motion of the UAV and the configurations of the RISs.The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated via computer simulations.

Analytical Modeling and Mechanism Analysis of Time-Varying Excitation for Surface Defects in Rolling Element Bearings

Surface defects,including dents,spalls,and cracks,for rolling element bearings are the most common faults in rotating machinery.The accurate model for the time-varying excitation is the basis for the vibration mechanism analysis and fault feature extraction.However,in conventional investigations,this issue is not well and fully addressed from the perspective of theoretical analysis and physical derivation.In this study,an improved analytical model for time-varying displacement excitations(TVDEs)caused by surface defects is theoretically formulated.First and foremost,the physical mechanism for the effect of defect sizes on the physical process of rolling element-defect interaction is revealed.According to the physical interaction mechanism between the rolling element and different types of defects,the relationship between time-varying displacement pulse and defect sizes is further analytically derived.With the obtained time-varying displacement pulse,the dynamic model for the deep groove bearings considering the internal excitation caused by the surface defect is established.The nonlinear vibration responses and fault features induced by surface defects are analyzed using the proposed TVDE model.The results suggest that the presence of surface defects may result in the occurrence of the dual-impulse phenomenon,which can serve as indexes for surface-defect fault diagnosis.

Soil-water characteristic surface model of soil-rock mixture

The relationship between the water content or saturation of unsaturated soils and its matrix suction is commonly described by the soilwater characteristic curve(SWCC).Currently,study on the SWCC model is focused on fine-grained soils like clay and silty soils,but the SWCC model for grinding soil-rock mixture(SRM)is less studied.Considering that the SRM is in a certain compaction state in the actual project,this study established a surface model with three variables of coupling compaction degree-substrate suction-moisture content based on the Cavalcante-Zornberg soil-water characteristic curve model.Then,the influence of each fitting parameter on the curve was analyzed.For the common SRM,the soil-water characteristic test was conducted.Moreover,the experimental measurements exhibit remarkable consistency with the mode surface.The analysis shows that the surface model intuitively describes the soil-water characteristics of grinding SRM,which can provide the SWCC of soils with bimodal pore characteristics under specific compaction degrees.Furthermore,it can reflect the influence of compaction degrees on the SWCC of rock-soil mass and has a certain prediction effect.The SWCC of SRM with various soil-rock ratios have a double-step shape.With the increase in compaction degree,the curves as a whole tend toward decreasing mass moisture content.The curve changes are mainly concentrated in the large pore section.

Contact Angle Prediction Model for Underwater Oleophobic Surfaces Based on Multifractal Theory

Traditional microstructure scale parameters have difficulty describing the structure and distribution of a roughmaterial’s surface morphology comprehensively and quantitatively. This study constructs hydrophilic and underwateroleophobic surfaces based on polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) using a chemical modification method, and the fractaldimension and multifractal spectrum are used to quantitatively characterize the microscopic morphology. A new contactangle prediction model for underwater oleophobic surfaces is established. The results show that the fractal dimension ofthe PVDF surface first increases and then decreases with the reaction time. The uniformity characterized by the multifractalspectrum was generally consistent with scanning electron microscope observations. The contact angle of water droplets onthe PVDF surface is negatively correlated with the fractal dimension, and oil droplets in water are positively correlated.When the fractal dimension is 2.0975, the new contact angle prediction model has higher prediction accuracy. Themaximum and minimum relative deviations of the contact angle between the theoretical and measured data are 18.20%and 0.72%, respectively. For water ring transportation, the larger the fractal dimension and spectral width of the materialsurface, the smaller the absolute value of the spectral difference, the stronger the hydrophilic and oleophobic properties, andthe better the water ring transportation stability.

An accurate analytical surface potential model of heterojunction tunnel FET

Based on the accurate and efficient thermal injection method, we develop a fully analytical surface potential model for the heterojunction tunnel field-effect transistor(H-TFET). This model accounts for both the effects of source depletion and inversion charge, which are the key factors influencing the charge, capacitance and current in H-TFET. The accuracy of the model is validated against TCAD simulation and is greatly improved in comparison with the conventional model based on Maxwell–Boltzmann approximation. Furthermore, the dependences of the surface potential and electric field on biases are well predicted and thoroughly analyzed.

Effect of Fibre Size on Mechanical Properties and Surface Roughness of PLA Composites by Using Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM)

Naturalfibre as a reinforcing agent has been widely used in many industrial applications.Nevertheless,several factors need to be considered,such as the size and weight percentage of thefibre used in binding.Using fused deposition modelling(FDM),this factor was investigated by varying the size of naturalfibre as the responding variable with afixed weight percentage of kenaffibre.The process of modifying the naturalfibre in terms of size might increase the dispersion of kenaffibre in the polymer matrix and increase the adhesion bonding between thefibre and matrix of composites,subsequently improving the interfacial bonding between these two phases.In this paper,the effect offibre size was evaluated by performing the mechanical test,Scanning Electron Micrograph(SEM)to observe the morphology of the composites,and also by surface analysis.The surface roughness was visualised using a 3D profilometer and thefigure was illustrated as colour shading in the image.The composite withfibre size≤100μm displayed better tensile andflexural strength,compared to other sizes.In conclusion,by reducing the size of thefibre,the composites could develop high strength performance for industrial applications.

On the long-term memory characteristic in land surface air temperatures:How well do CMIP6 models perform?

利用去趋势涨落分析(DFA)方法计算序列的长程记忆性(LTM),以CRUTEM5数据集的结果作为观测参照,评估了60个参与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式对地表气温LTM的再现能力.结果表明:大部分模式可以再现全球平均地表气温序列的LTM特征,其中AWI-ESM-1-1-LR和E3SM-1-0的模拟效果最好;60个模式均能模拟LTM随纬度带的变化;综合来说,全球水平上CNRM-CM6-1和HadGEM3-GC31-LL对地表气温LTM的模拟性能最好;多模式平均相比单一模式模拟性能更好;多模式平均与观测结果的偏差以及模式之间的模拟差异显著体现在赤道和沿海区域,这种偏差可能源于模式对海气耦合过程的模拟差异.

Prediction and sensitivity analysis of the surface quality in Ni60/WC coatings

For laser cladding a large temperature gradient easily weakened the surface quality by generating cracks and irregular coating surfaces,which in turn affected the bearing capacity and corrosion resistance of coatings in the rapid heating and cooling process.The response surface methodology(RSM)was used to predict coating cracks by changing the powder ratio,energy density,and preheating temperature,which obtained the relevant mathematical model.After that,the sensitivity of the crack length to process parameters was analyzed based on the sensitivity analysis method.The effect of Ni60/WC composite powder process parameters on the surface quality was revealed in laser cladding.The crack length first decreased and then increased,and the Smooth decreased with the increased powder ratio.The crack length and Smooth increased with the increased energy density.The crack length decreased and Smooth increased with the increased preheating temperature.Sensitivity analysis showed that the crack length and Smooth were the most sensitive to the powder ratio.Therefore,the process parameters were reasonably selected to control the surface quality.The mathematical model and sensitivity analysis method in the work could improve the surface quality,which provided a theoretical basis for the prediction and control of laser cladding cracks.

The Coordinated Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Arctic Sea Ice on Anomalous Northeast China Cold Vortex Activities with Different Paths during Late Summer

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.

A Land Surface Model(IAP94) for Climate Studies PartI:Formulation and Validation in Off-line Experiments

The IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) land-surface model (IAP94) is described. This model is a comprehensive one with detailed description for the processes of vegetation, snow and soil. Particular attention has been paid to the cases with three water phases in the surface media. On the basis of the mixture theory and the theory of fluid dynamics of porous media, the system of universal conservational equations for water and heat of soil, snow and vegetation canopy has been constructed. On this background, all important factors that may affect the water and heat balance in media can be considered naturally, and each factor and term possess distinct physical meaning. In the computation of water content and temperature, the water phase change and the heat transportation by water flow are taken into account. Moreover, particular attention has been given to the water vapor diffusion in soil for arid or semi-arid cases, and snow compaction. In the treatment of surface turbulent fluxes, the difference between aerodynamic and thermal roughness is taken into account. The aerodynamic roughness of vegetation is calculated as a function of canopy density, height and zero-plane displacement. An extrapolation of log linear and exponential relationship is used when calculating the wind profile within canopy. The model has been validated against field measurements in off-line simulations. The desirable model′s performance leads to the conclusion that the IAP94 is able to reproduce the main physical mechanisms governing the energy and water balances in the global land surface. Part II of the present study will concern the validation in a 3-D experiment coupled with the IAP Two-Level AGCM.

Fractal Prediction Model of Thermal Contact Conductance of Rough Surfaces

The thermal contact conductance problem is an important issue in studying the heat transfer of engineering surfaces, which has been widely studied since last few decades, and for predicting which many theoretical models have been established. However, the models which have been existed are lack of objectivity due to that they are mostly studied based on the statistical methodology characterization for rough surfaces and simple partition for the deformation formats of contact asperity. In this paper, a fractal prediction model is developed for the thermal contact conductance between two rough surfaces based on the rough surface being described by three-dimensional Weierstrass and Mandelbrot fractal function and assuming that there are three kinds of asperity deformation modes： elastic, elastoplastic and fully plastic. Influences of contact load and contact area as well as fractal parameters and material properties on the thermal contact conductance are investigated by using the presented model. The investigation results show that the thermal contact conductance increases with the increasing of the contact load and contact area. The larger the fractal dimension, or the smaller the fractal roughness, the larger the thermal contact conductance is. The thermal contact conductance increases with decreasing the ratio of Young＇s elastic modulus to the microhardness. The results obtained indicate that the proposed model can effectively predict the thermal contact conductance at the interface, which provide certain reference to the further study on the issue of heat transfer between contact surfaces.