Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, ...Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.展开更多
The new energy industry is strongly supported by the state,and accurate forecasting of stock price can lead to better understanding of its development.However,factors such as cost and ease of use of new energy,as well...The new energy industry is strongly supported by the state,and accurate forecasting of stock price can lead to better understanding of its development.However,factors such as cost and ease of use of new energy,as well as economic situation and policy environment,have led to continuous changes in its stock price and increased stock price volatility.By calculating the Lyapunov index and observing the Poincarésurface of the section,we find that the sample of the China Securities Index Green Power 50 Index has chaotic characteristics,and the data indicate strong volatility and uncertainty.This study proposes a new method of stock price index prediction,namely,EWT-S-ALOSVR.Empirical wavelet decomposition extracts features from multiple factors affecting stock prices to form multiple sub-columns with features,significantly reducing the complexity of the stock price series.Support vector regression is well suited for dealing with nonlinear stock price series,and the support vector machine model parameters are selected using random wandering and picking elites via Ant Lion Optimization,making stock price prediction more accurate.展开更多
文摘Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.
基金Key Research Project in Universities of Henan Province(No.24B480012)Science and Technology of Henan Province of China(No.182400410419)+1 种基金the Foundation for Fostering the National Foundation of Pingdingshan University(No.PXY-PYJJ-2016006)National Science and Technology Council,Taiwan(MOST 111-2410-H-161-001).
文摘The new energy industry is strongly supported by the state,and accurate forecasting of stock price can lead to better understanding of its development.However,factors such as cost and ease of use of new energy,as well as economic situation and policy environment,have led to continuous changes in its stock price and increased stock price volatility.By calculating the Lyapunov index and observing the Poincarésurface of the section,we find that the sample of the China Securities Index Green Power 50 Index has chaotic characteristics,and the data indicate strong volatility and uncertainty.This study proposes a new method of stock price index prediction,namely,EWT-S-ALOSVR.Empirical wavelet decomposition extracts features from multiple factors affecting stock prices to form multiple sub-columns with features,significantly reducing the complexity of the stock price series.Support vector regression is well suited for dealing with nonlinear stock price series,and the support vector machine model parameters are selected using random wandering and picking elites via Ant Lion Optimization,making stock price prediction more accurate.
