Study on Potential Strong Earthquake Risks Around the Mabian Area,Southern Sichuan

Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years, we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area, southern Sichuan, and identified the risky fault-segments for potential future. The method of analysis is a combination of activity background of historical strong earthquakes mainly show ~ （ 1 ） The spatial distribution of b-values strong and large earthquakes in the spatial distribution of b-values with and current seismicity. Our results indicates significant heterogeneity in the studied area, which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress levels along various fault zones and segments. （2） Three anomalously low b-value areas with different dimensions were identified along the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone. These anomalies can be asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels. Two asperities are located in the north of Mabian county, in Lidian town in western Muchuan county, and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone. These two areas represent potential large earthquake seismogenic sites around the Mabian area in the near future. Besides them, the third relatively smaller asperity is identified at southern Suijiang, as another potential strong- earthquake source. （3） An asperity along the southwestern segment of the Longquanshan fault zone indicates the site of potential moderate-to-strong earthquakes. （4） The asperity along the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu fault has potential for a moderate-strong earthquake.

Analysis and study of the large earthquake risk in Yanqing-Huailai basin

On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combined to study the earthquake risk of the basin comprehensively. Meanwhile, the comparison of deep structures between the basin and some other earthquake regions such as the Xingtai area is made. It is thought that there is the background of deep structures for occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes in the Yanqing Huailai basin and its periphery, and the possibility for an M =7 earthquake to occur there cannot be excluded.

Study of Finite Element Modeling of Strong Earthquake Activities and Its Preliminary Application—Taking Southwest China as an Example

Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Using this model, the stress adjustment in the whole of the Southwest China region in response to the stress change due to strong earthquake occurrence is studied. The preliminary result shows that many strong earthquakes occurred in areas where the stress heightened after the last strong earthquake. So, the finite element model set up in this paper is useful for judging the regions where strong earthquakes are likely to occur in future.

Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault

Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segments behave differently in their Holocene slip rates and paleo-earthquake activities, with obviously higher paleo-seismic activity on the Huashixia segment than on Maqin segment. As many as four strong Holocene earthquakes are identified on the Huashixia segment from trenching and geomorphic studies. The recurrent interval for the latest three earthquakes are at about 500 a and 640 a, respectively. On the Maqin segment, at least three paleo-earthquake events can be defined from trenching, with a recurrent interval for the latest two events at about 1000 a. M = 7.5 earthquakes on Huashixia segment recur at every 411 a to 608 a with a characteristic slip at 5.75±0.57 m. Although the Maqin segment is less active, its accumulated strain energy during the long time period since last earthquake occurred (about 1070 a BP) deserves enough notice on its future earthquake probabilities.

Retrospection on the Conclusions of Earthquake Tendency Forecast before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake

The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass Ms8. 1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002- 2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning＇er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.

Active tectonic deformation and its seismic-geological significance of boundary faults of the Daxing Uplift and Langgu-Dachang Depression,Beijing Plain,China

Boundary faults of the Daxing Uplift and Langgu-Dachang Depression are located in the southeastern region of the Beijing Plain and directly control the sedimentation,tectonic evolution,and strong seismic activity of the plain.The Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake of Ms 8.0 occurred in 1679,but the active tectonic deformation characteristics of the boundary have been rarely discussed.In this study,the active tectonic deformation characteristics of the Daxing Uplift and Langgu-Dachang Depression boundary rupture were investigated by collecting and analyzing the results of previous works,supplementing three shallow-seismicexploration control lines at locations where the data are lacking,and carrying out borehole combined profile exploration and optically stimulated luminescence dating at local breakpoints.Results show that the Daxing Uplift and Langgu-Dachang Depression boundary faults constitute an active tectonic deformation zone with~50 km distance between Mafang and Niubaotun towns and then extends to both ends to form a deep and large fault that cuts through the earth’s crust.The activity of the Daxing Uplift eastern boundary fault may be divided into two sections near Anding town,with the early-to-middle Late Pleistocene gradually weakening in the northwest and the Holocene gradually weakening in the southwest.Moreover,the activity of the Xiadian fault may be divided into two sections near the Chaobai River:the Holocene gradually weakening in the northwest and the early-to-middle Late Pleistocene gradually weakening in the southwest.The boundary fault of the Daxing Uplift and Langgu-Dachang Depression has an~43 km seismic gap around Niubaotun town,which has a high risk of Ms 6.0-7.0 earthquakes.This investigation into the active tectonic deformation characteristics of the boundary fault of the Daxing Uplift and Langgu-Dachang Depression is crucial for analyzing the strong earthquake rupture behavior and the future risk of strong earthquakes in this area.It also contributes greatly to the study of the tectonic pattern evolution of the North China Plain and Beijing Plain.