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云南地区6级以上强震时间分布特征及其概率预测模型研究 被引量:12
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作者 苏有锦 李忠华 《地震研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2011年第1期1-7,共7页
系统分析了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的间隔时间分布特征;运用M≥5.0地震目录,基于G—R关系的年发生率和泊松分布模型,构建了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的概率预测模型;结合间隔时间分布统计特征和概率预测模型,对... 系统分析了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的间隔时间分布特征;运用M≥5.0地震目录,基于G—R关系的年发生率和泊松分布模型,构建了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的概率预测模型;结合间隔时间分布统计特征和概率预测模型,对云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震,建立了具有概率水平的三级预测预警指标:C(黄)、B(橙)、A(红)。 展开更多
关键词 6级以上强震 间隔时间 分布特征 概率预测模型 预测预警指标 云南地区
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2003年大姚6.2和6.1级地震的断层形变异常特征 被引量:3
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作者 刘强 余庆坤 《地震研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2004年第4期301-307,共7页
探索由跨断层短水准短基线资料提取断层形变异常参数R值 ,并借助时空动态演化图像的方法 ,分析处理云南地区 1 997~ 2 0 0 3年跨断层短水准短基线资料 ,通过对该区域MS≥ 6 0级强震震例的定量分析 ,提取大姚6 2和 6 1级地震断层... 探索由跨断层短水准短基线资料提取断层形变异常参数R值 ,并借助时空动态演化图像的方法 ,分析处理云南地区 1 997~ 2 0 0 3年跨断层短水准短基线资料 ,通过对该区域MS≥ 6 0级强震震例的定量分析 ,提取大姚6 2和 6 1级地震断层形变异常特征。结果表明 ,R值出现异常后的 1~ 2 0个月内 ,该区域发生MS≥ 6级强震概率较高 ,R值对预测该区域MS≥ 6 0级强震具有一定的应用价值。 展开更多
关键词 断层形变 异常参数R值 Ms≥6.0级地震 云南地区
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Study on the Genesis of the Yongsheng Earthquake with M_S6.0 on October 27, 2001 被引量:1
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作者 Zhou Guangquan 1)2), Su Youjin 1) and Wang Shaojin 1) 1)Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China 2)School of Earth & Space Science, University of Science & Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China 《Earthquake Research in China》 2003年第4期364-375,共12页
On October 27, 2001, a large earthquake with M S6.0, named the Yongsheng earthquake, occurred along the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghai fault in Yongsheng County, Yunnan Province. It is the largest event to occur alon... On October 27, 2001, a large earthquake with M S6.0, named the Yongsheng earthquake, occurred along the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghai fault in Yongsheng County, Yunnan Province. It is the largest event to occur along the Chenghai fault in the last 200 years. The seismo-geological survey shows that the seismogenic fault, which is the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghai fault, takes left-lateral strike-slip as its dominant movement pattern. According to differences in vertical motion, motion time, landforms and scales, the Chenhai fault can be divided into eight segments. The Jinshajiang segment has a vertical dislocation rate of 0.4 mm/a, far lower than the mean rate of the Chenghai fault, about 2.0 mm/a. It’s deduced that the two sides of Jinshajiang segment “stuck" tightly and hindered the strike-slip of the Chenghai fault. The strong earthquake distribution before this event shows that the Jinshajiang segment was in the seismic gap. The Chenghai fault, as a boundary of tectonic sub-blocks, makes the Northwest Yunnan block and the Middle Yunnan block move clockwise, and their margins move oppositely along the Chenghai fault. In the motion process of the Chenghai fault, structural hindrance and the seismic gap of strong earthquakes are propitious to the concentration and accumulation of structure stress. As a result, the Yongsheng M S6.0 earthquake occurred. The Sujiazhuang-Shangangfu segment is similar to the Jinshajiang segment with a low vertical motion rate of 0.3 mm/a and in the seismic gap. So it’s postulated that the segment may become a new structure hindrance, and the Yongsheng M S6.0 earthquake may trigger the occurrence of future large earthquakes along this segment. 展开更多
关键词 Block motion Vertical dislocation rate strong earthquake activity Genesis of the earthquakes Yongsheng M S6.0 earthquake
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