Effects of Infrastructure Investment on Structural Change and Productivity Growth in China

The rapid growth of infrastructure investment is a salient feature of China’s economy since the reform and opening-up in 1978,contributing to not only the aggregate demand but also the structural change and productivity growth on the supply-side.This paper builds a multi-sector general equilibrium model to show how infrastructure investment influences structural change through price,investment and income effects,and influences productivity growth through the intensive and extensive marginal effects.By quantifying the model with China’s economy for the period 1981-2017,the paper finds that the infrastructure investment restrained the rise of services,but boosted productivity growth over the period.The policy implication is that China should ramp up infrastructure investment to increase productivity as it pursues high-quality development,but give priority to new infrastructure and public-interest infrastructure to promote industrial structural upgrade.

Causes of the exchange rate with the U.S. trade deficit

With debate that the U.S. trade deficit is due to overestimate exchange rate of RMB, the paper pointed out that exchange rate is not the main factor for the formation of balance of payments on trade. U.S. trade deficit is largely due to the current international monetary system, international division of labor and the trade structure determined by it, low savings rates and other factors.

Artificial Intelligence,Structural Change and Labor Income Share

Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.

中国OFDI对外贸高质量发展的影响路径研究

外贸高质量发展是现代化经济体系建设的重要内容。本文从外贸规模、外贸结构、外贸竞争力和外贸可持续性4个层面构建了外贸高质量发展的评价指标体系,并采用熵值法对OFDI促进外贸高质量发展的产业路径和技术路径展开理论和实证分析。研究表明:我国OFDI能显著促进外贸高质量发展;产业结构升级和技术进步的中介效应显著存在。为推动我国外贸实现高质量发展,政府应进一步完善相关政策措施,促进企业对外直接投资,不断深化产业转型、技术创新等保障机制改革;企业则应加大对自身技术的研发投入,加大对知识和技术密集型行业的对外投资,并加强企业之间的合作交流。

Climate Change and Green Growth:A Perspective of the Division of Labor

This paper presents a new research agenda on climate change and green growth from the perspective of the division of labor in classical economics. The paper covers three major dimensions of green growth （i.e. carbon emissions, environmental proteetion and material resources use） and some related important topics, as well as the fresh policy implications of the new research agenda, Typical marginal analysis in a given structure of the division of labor suggests that ＂green＂ action is a burden to economic development. Therefore, climate negotiation has become a burden-sharing game and has reached a stalemate. New thinking is badly needed to rescue these negotiations and to drive a shift to a new ＂green growth＂ paradigm. The proposed new research agenda represents an effort to create a new narrative on climate change and green growth. Because the new research agenda can theoretically predict the possibility that a more competitive structure of the division of labor could be triggered by ＂＇green ＂＇ policy, it has promising policy implications for various important challenges facing us in the 21st century.

Substrate availability and toxicity shape the structure of microbial communities engaged in metabolic division of labor

Metabolic division of labor(MDOL)represents a widespread natural phenomenon,whereby a complex metabolic pathway is shared between different strains within a community in a mutually beneficial manner.However,little is known about how the composition of such a microbial community is regulated.We hypothesized that when degradation of an organic compound is carried out via MDOL,the concentration and toxicity of the substrate modulate the benefit allocation between the two microbial populations,thus affecting the structure of this community.We tested this hypothesis by combining modeling with experiments using a synthetic consortium.Our modeling analysis suggests that the proportion of the population executing the first metabolic step can be simply estimated by Monod-like formulas governed by substrate concentration and toxicity.Our model and the proposed formula were able to quantitatively predict the structure of our synthetic consortium.Further analysis demonstrates that our rule is also applicable in estimating community structures in spatially structured environments.Together,our work clearly demonstrates that the structure of MDOL communities can be quantitatively predicted using available information on environmental factors,thus providing novel insights into how to manage artificial microbial systems for the wide application of the bioindustry.

制造业数字化与劳动收入份额变动

制造业数字化转型能够改变劳动力市场格局,对收入分配产生重要影响。以1995—2018年45个国家17个制造业部门为样本,考察制造业数字化对劳动收入份额的影响。研究发现:制造业数字化对劳动收入份额的影响呈现“倒U型”特征,这种特征在发达国家中比较突出,在发展中国家中不明显;相比于国外投入,国内投入数字化对劳动收入份额的“倒U型”影响较早达到拐点;制造业数字化与直接出口、间接出口以及再进口活动的劳动收入份额分别呈抑制、促进和“倒U型”关系。机制检验显示,制造业数字化主要通过工资率效应和价值链分工效应对劳动收入份额产生“倒U型”影响。进一步分析发现,制造业数字化能够缩小高-低技能和中-高技能劳动者的工资差距。拓展性分析表明,资本-劳动比和行业竞争程度的提高均使劳动收入份额由升转降的拐点提前。研究可为推动制造业数字化转型与完善收入分配制度提供重要启示。

数据要素市场化对中国企业全球价值链分工的影响

选取中国工业企业数据和海关贸易数据,实证考察数据要素市场化对企业全球价值链分工的影响以及作用机制。研究结果显示,数据要素市场化可显著促进企业深度参与全球价值链分工;机制检验结果表明,产业结构升级效应和技术创新效应是数据要素市场化驱动企业深度参与全球价值链分工的重要渠道;异质性检验表明,数据要素市场化对非东部地区企业全球价值链分工的促进作用更明显。有鉴于此,应持续深化数据要素市场化改革、加快建设现代产业体系、大力发展数智经济核心产业、实施差异化发展战略,以期提高企业嵌入全球价值链分工体系的附加价值。

“钟摆逻辑”:有限结构化的村务工作模式——基于湖北S村的经验研究

我国村级组织具有复杂性,在村务工作的组织模式、规范要求和具体内容等层面存在较大差异。研究发现,基层的村务工作呈现出明显的“钟摆逻辑”,即面对常规任务和特殊任务采取不同的应对方式。在处理常规任务时,运用分工合作的模式,将任务进行条线分割,主要采用坐班制、固定工作场所及规则治理等手段;而面对特殊任务时,则结成“行动班子”,以团结合作、工作动员等方式来应对。这种在常态模式与动员模式之间的切换使得村务工作处于有限结构化的状态,有助于提升基层治理效能。

《家庭、私有制和国家的起源》中的女性解放思想及其当代启示

恩格斯的经典著作《家庭、私有制和国家的起源》不仅从两种生产、性别分工、家庭形式演变等多个层面揭示了妇女受压迫被奴役的原因,而且从发展生产力、女性参与社会劳动、家务劳动社会化多个角度展示了妇女解放的路径。面对当前妇女解放仍然存在的不平衡不充分问题,应以恩格斯提出的妇女解放思想为理论基点,从大力发展生产力,发挥女性在社会生产中的重要作用,探索家务劳动社会化的可能路径等角度出发,积极推动女性解放事业的发展,助力中华民族伟大复兴。

税制结构变动与地区产出波动——来自劳动力市场的灵活性

《十四五规划纲要》指出,完善税制结构体系是必要的,但幅度必须适当。检验2000—2018年我国税制结构变动与地区产出波动的影响机制以及就业结构对其的重要调节作用。研究发现:以直接税占比、间接税占比、房产税占比衡量的税制结构变动会负向影响地区产出,且各影响因素的作用有明显的差异;税制结构变动对产出的影响,表现为明显的区域异质性,对于不同经济属性、地理区位的省份,其影响效果存在明显的不同;税制结构变动显著的通过就业渠道影响地区产出变动。在调整税制结构的过程中,政策执行者需要采取配套的就业措施,以减轻在优化税制结构过程中,提高各税种比例所造成的效率损失。

基于易经地理思想的国家空间治理结构顶层设计

以国土空间治理能力现代化助推高质量发展,是保障中华民族伟大复兴、推进中国式现代化的必然要求。本文在继承和发展易经地理思想的基础上,构建了“太极空间治理结构模型”,确定山海关为“东亚太极点”。中国国家空间治理结构的顶层设计,应围绕“山海关”而层层展开。在中央核心区,按照“东亚陆海中心+陆地屏障+海洋屏障”的环首都治理结构,将北京扩容至山海关,河北省扩容至大兴安岭中央主峰,天津直辖市扩容至渤海海峡。在四方支撑区,各布局1个直辖市(上海、重庆、天骄、威虎),并增设云北省,扼控各方向的关键节点。在外围屏障区,增设澎湖、昆仑2大直辖市和楼兰、北庭2大特别行政区,形成最有利于中国长治久安的边疆治理结构。

基于职能分工的地熊蜂飞行能力的差异分析

【目的】熊蜂是一种社会性昆虫,不同级型以及同一级型不同生理阶段具有不同的职能分工。其中,飞行能力是影响不同生理阶段熊蜂传粉和交配等职能的一个重要因素。本研究旨在探究职能分工和体重对地熊蜂Bombus terrestris飞行能力的影响,为地熊蜂的高效生产和利用提供理论依据。【方法】利用飞行磨对地熊蜂蜂王、工蜂和雄蜂3种级型以及不同生理阶段的蜂王(处女王、滞育王和产卵王)在24 h内的飞行距离、飞行速度和飞行时间等飞行能力进行测定,分析飞行能力与职能、体重、飞行后体重下降量之间的相关性。【结果】在24 h吊飞试验中,地熊蜂雄蜂的累计飞行距离、累计飞行时间、最大飞行距离和最长飞行时间均显著高于工蜂和蜂王的,雄蜂和蜂王的平均飞行速度和最大飞行速度也显著高于工蜂的,即相同条件下工蜂飞行能力最差。不同生理阶段的蜂王的飞行能力存在显著差异,处女王的累计飞行距离、累计飞行时间、最大飞行距离、最长飞行时间、平均飞行速度和最大飞行速度均显著高于滞育王和产卵王的,后二者在飞行距离和飞行速度方面无显著差异。三型蜂中,蜂王和工蜂的累计飞行距离和累计飞行时间均与体重呈显著正相关,但平均飞行速度与体重无显著相关性;雄蜂飞行能力与体重无显著相关性,但累计飞行距离和累计飞行时间与飞行后体重下降量呈显著正相关;在蜂王的不同生理阶段,处女王的累计飞行距离和累计飞行时间与体重呈显著正相关,滞育王和产卵王累计飞行距离和累计飞行时间与飞行后体重下降量呈正相关。【结论】地熊蜂飞行能力的差异与阶段性的职能改变密切相关,且不同级型和生理阶段的地熊蜂的飞行能力分别与体重和飞行后体重下降量有一定的相关性。研究结果为地熊蜂在生产中的优选优育和应用提供了一定的理论基础。

Labor Market Dynamics and Structural Change： Evidence from China

Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals these differences through restoring a long-period, individual-level panel dataset from China＇s Urban Household Survey for 1986-2009. We find that both for people who started working for the first time and those who switched jobs, the sector choice depends on personal characteristics. In particular, women and people with higher educational attainment or a previous white- collar job are more likely to join the tertiary sector and less likely to join the primary sector. These effects are substantial even if the macroeconomic variables used in conventional structural change theories are controlled. They are also robust in various periods and at more detailed industry levels. Our research suggests that it is important to pay greater attention to the labor composition when mal^ng policy related to economic structural change.

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Labor income shares （LIS） in economic development： an empirical study based on China＇s sectoral-level data

Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.

国际分工及结构转型对就业和收入的影响分析

使用2002-2013年的工业企业数据和进出口贸易数据,重点估计了国际分工及结构转型对就业和收入的影响作用。结果表明,初级加工品分工和设备零部件分工对就业扩张和收入增长均产生正向影响,由设备零部件分工占比上升构成的国际分工结构转型能够产生就业质量效应和收入提升效应。生产率、技术进步和价值链是国际分工结构转型影响劳动力市场就业结构和收入分配的关键因素。国际分工结构转型引起的就业质量效应和收入提升效应均呈现先上升后下降的趋势,并且最终平稳到较低的正常范围,就业质量效应和收入提升效应分别在滞后5期和滞后7期最为突出。研究意味着我国企业想要通过升级国际分工结构层次继而推动就业质量和收入水平的提升,就需要不断扩大在设备零部件国际分工方面的增量影响,还要加强对设备零部件国际分工所含知识产权和科技专利溢出效应的学习吸收能力,以及提高外部知识专利与内部研发技术相结合的创新水准。

齐变效应与场景重构:短视频平台中的“数字劳动时间”

在马克思的时间观中,以人为叙事主体的时间结构包含自由时间与劳动时间的对立。数字劳动时间作为数字时代萌生于时间结构中的新角色,其概念具有特定的意涵,即数字劳动时间在与数字资本的深度融合不再局限于固有的劳动时间框架内,而是弥散于非雇佣劳动者的整个时间结构中,它是以自由时间与劳动时间的张力结构为载体的时间“存在”,这在诸多利益相关方竞逐的短视频平台上表现尤为明显。数字劳动时间在非雇佣劳动者的劳动实践中产生“齐变效应”,表现为时间结构内部的转化、游离和侵占的时间异变等。这些非雇佣劳动者的数字劳动时间同时被技术量化、加速与套利,重构了数字劳动时间的全新场景。因此,为了实现数字劳动时间向人之主体性的复归,需要探索一条冲破数字资本桎梏的路径,实现人的自由而全面的发展。

消亡与存续:从农户生存逻辑重读近代家庭棉纺织业的发展--以江南和华北棉纺织区为例

近代手工棉纺织业在资本主义工业冲击下呈现多层次发展格局,在空间维度上表现为瓦解与持续并存,时间维度上则是在整体衰弱的趋势中出现短暂复苏。除市场和制度等宏观影响因素外,还需从生产决策的主体——农户来考察这一历史变化。人口压力、副业的可选择性与相对收益、家庭消费水平和消费行为以及以性别、代际为基础的家庭劳动分工不同程度地影响农户手工纺织生产决策。是否从事手工纺织是农户基于成本收益计算后的理性决策。

劳动力外出、收入增长与种植业结构调整——基于江苏省农户调查数据的分析

本文使用1997—2010年国家农村固定观察点中江苏省6县(市)11个村镇的农户调查追踪数据,分析了农户家庭劳动力外出、收入增长对种植业结构调整之间的关系和影响程度。研究结果表明,江苏省农户的种植业结构调整近似呈现出周期性波动,户均粮食、经济作物的播种面积呈现剧烈波动,而户均蔬菜的种植面积则呈现不断上升势头;当前农户家庭中的农业生产者多以解决家庭日常农产品消费和出售剩余农产品获利为目标的劳动分工定位,而随着家庭中劳动力外出、家庭总收入及外出收入的增长,反而更易导致农户维持现有的种植业结构不变,且随着生产者年龄增长,其自发地调整种植业结构的力度也不断减弱;提高农户的种植业经济收益对其调整种植业结构具有明显的激励作用,政府在种植业结构调整中扮演着重要角色,利用种植业结构调整中的村庄外部效应对农户决策的正向影响,培养现代职业农民,通过发展种养结合等途径切实提高农户经营收入。

社会分工制度下生产性服务业与制造业关系新探——以江苏省为例

技术进步、分工深化和报酬递增,都是社会分工制度演进的具体表现。本文以江苏省数据为例对社会分工制度下生产性服务业与制造业的关系进行了实证分析,尤其考察了生产性服务业内部各部门对制造业的不同影响。研究结果为社会分工制度及其理论创新与发展提供了实践依据,也为江苏省及各地区产业结构升级与经济发展方式转型提供了政策依据和有益借鉴。