The rapid growth of infrastructure investment is a salient feature of China’s economy since the reform and opening-up in 1978,contributing to not only the aggregate demand but also the structural change and productiv...The rapid growth of infrastructure investment is a salient feature of China’s economy since the reform and opening-up in 1978,contributing to not only the aggregate demand but also the structural change and productivity growth on the supply-side.This paper builds a multi-sector general equilibrium model to show how infrastructure investment influences structural change through price,investment and income effects,and influences productivity growth through the intensive and extensive marginal effects.By quantifying the model with China’s economy for the period 1981-2017,the paper finds that the infrastructure investment restrained the rise of services,but boosted productivity growth over the period.The policy implication is that China should ramp up infrastructure investment to increase productivity as it pursues high-quality development,but give priority to new infrastructure and public-interest infrastructure to promote industrial structural upgrade.展开更多
With debate that the U.S. trade deficit is due to overestimate exchange rate of RMB, the paper pointed out that exchange rate is not the main factor for the formation of balance of payments on trade. U.S. trade defici...With debate that the U.S. trade deficit is due to overestimate exchange rate of RMB, the paper pointed out that exchange rate is not the main factor for the formation of balance of payments on trade. U.S. trade deficit is largely due to the current international monetary system, international division of labor and the trade structure determined by it, low savings rates and other factors.展开更多
Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares....Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.展开更多
This paper presents a new research agenda on climate change and green growth from the perspective of the division of labor in classical economics. The paper covers three major dimensions of green growth （i.e. carbon ...This paper presents a new research agenda on climate change and green growth from the perspective of the division of labor in classical economics. The paper covers three major dimensions of green growth （i.e. carbon emissions, environmental proteetion and material resources use） and some related important topics, as well as the fresh policy implications of the new research agenda, Typical marginal analysis in a given structure of the division of labor suggests that ＂green＂ action is a burden to economic development. Therefore, climate negotiation has become a burden-sharing game and has reached a stalemate. New thinking is badly needed to rescue these negotiations and to drive a shift to a new ＂green growth＂ paradigm. The proposed new research agenda represents an effort to create a new narrative on climate change and green growth. Because the new research agenda can theoretically predict the possibility that a more competitive structure of the division of labor could be triggered by ＂＇green ＂＇ policy, it has promising policy implications for various important challenges facing us in the 21st century.展开更多
Metabolic division of labor(MDOL)represents a widespread natural phenomenon,whereby a complex metabolic pathway is shared between different strains within a community in a mutually beneficial manner.However,little is ...Metabolic division of labor(MDOL)represents a widespread natural phenomenon,whereby a complex metabolic pathway is shared between different strains within a community in a mutually beneficial manner.However,little is known about how the composition of such a microbial community is regulated.We hypothesized that when degradation of an organic compound is carried out via MDOL,the concentration and toxicity of the substrate modulate the benefit allocation between the two microbial populations,thus affecting the structure of this community.We tested this hypothesis by combining modeling with experiments using a synthetic consortium.Our modeling analysis suggests that the proportion of the population executing the first metabolic step can be simply estimated by Monod-like formulas governed by substrate concentration and toxicity.Our model and the proposed formula were able to quantitatively predict the structure of our synthetic consortium.Further analysis demonstrates that our rule is also applicable in estimating community structures in spatially structured environments.Together,our work clearly demonstrates that the structure of MDOL communities can be quantitatively predicted using available information on environmental factors,thus providing novel insights into how to manage artificial microbial systems for the wide application of the bioindustry.展开更多
Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals th...Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals these differences through restoring a long-period, individual-level panel dataset from China＇s Urban Household Survey for 1986-2009. We find that both for people who started working for the first time and those who switched jobs, the sector choice depends on personal characteristics. In particular, women and people with higher educational attainment or a previous white- collar job are more likely to join the tertiary sector and less likely to join the primary sector. These effects are substantial even if the macroeconomic variables used in conventional structural change theories are controlled. They are also robust in various periods and at more detailed industry levels. Our research suggests that it is important to pay greater attention to the labor composition when mal^ng policy related to economic structural change.展开更多
Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctu...Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.展开更多
The rural revitalization strategy represents a quantum leap in both the theory and practice of rural development in China,and serves as a crucial solution to address the array of challenges facing rural areas.Multi-di...The rural revitalization strategy represents a quantum leap in both the theory and practice of rural development in China,and serves as a crucial solution to address the array of challenges facing rural areas.Multi-dimensionally,the rural revitalization strategy sets out the general requirements of“building rural areas with thriving businesses,pleasant living environments,good social civility,effective governance,and prosperity,”which echo the measures of new urbanization:efficient,green,humanistic,well-governed,and inclusive.Specifically,“building rural areas with prosperity”aligns with the development requirement of urban-rural dual structure theory;“building rural areas with thriving businesses”meets the development requirement of the industrial division of labor and integration theory;“building rural areas with pleasant living environments and good social civility”follows the development requirement of sustainable development theory;and“building rural areas with effective governance”tallies with the development requirement of rural governance theory.Urbanization theory,urban-rural dual structure theory,the industrial division of labor and integration theory,sustainable development theory,and rural governance theory serve as crucial theoretical references for the rural revitalization strategy,helping make clear its conceptual underpinnings.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)General Program(Grant No.71973156)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province General Program(Grant No.2019A1515011287)。
文摘The rapid growth of infrastructure investment is a salient feature of China’s economy since the reform and opening-up in 1978,contributing to not only the aggregate demand but also the structural change and productivity growth on the supply-side.This paper builds a multi-sector general equilibrium model to show how infrastructure investment influences structural change through price,investment and income effects,and influences productivity growth through the intensive and extensive marginal effects.By quantifying the model with China’s economy for the period 1981-2017,the paper finds that the infrastructure investment restrained the rise of services,but boosted productivity growth over the period.The policy implication is that China should ramp up infrastructure investment to increase productivity as it pursues high-quality development,but give priority to new infrastructure and public-interest infrastructure to promote industrial structural upgrade.
文摘With debate that the U.S. trade deficit is due to overestimate exchange rate of RMB, the paper pointed out that exchange rate is not the main factor for the formation of balance of payments on trade. U.S. trade deficit is largely due to the current international monetary system, international division of labor and the trade structure determined by it, low savings rates and other factors.
文摘Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.
文摘This paper presents a new research agenda on climate change and green growth from the perspective of the division of labor in classical economics. The paper covers three major dimensions of green growth （i.e. carbon emissions, environmental proteetion and material resources use） and some related important topics, as well as the fresh policy implications of the new research agenda, Typical marginal analysis in a given structure of the division of labor suggests that ＂green＂ action is a burden to economic development. Therefore, climate negotiation has become a burden-sharing game and has reached a stalemate. New thinking is badly needed to rescue these negotiations and to drive a shift to a new ＂green growth＂ paradigm. The proposed new research agenda represents an effort to create a new narrative on climate change and green growth. Because the new research agenda can theoretically predict the possibility that a more competitive structure of the division of labor could be triggered by ＂＇green ＂＇ policy, it has promising policy implications for various important challenges facing us in the 21st century.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFA0902100 and 2021YFA0910300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32161133023,32130004,91951204,and 32170113).
文摘Metabolic division of labor(MDOL)represents a widespread natural phenomenon,whereby a complex metabolic pathway is shared between different strains within a community in a mutually beneficial manner.However,little is known about how the composition of such a microbial community is regulated.We hypothesized that when degradation of an organic compound is carried out via MDOL,the concentration and toxicity of the substrate modulate the benefit allocation between the two microbial populations,thus affecting the structure of this community.We tested this hypothesis by combining modeling with experiments using a synthetic consortium.Our modeling analysis suggests that the proportion of the population executing the first metabolic step can be simply estimated by Monod-like formulas governed by substrate concentration and toxicity.Our model and the proposed formula were able to quantitatively predict the structure of our synthetic consortium.Further analysis demonstrates that our rule is also applicable in estimating community structures in spatially structured environments.Together,our work clearly demonstrates that the structure of MDOL communities can be quantitatively predicted using available information on environmental factors,thus providing novel insights into how to manage artificial microbial systems for the wide application of the bioindustry.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation （Grant No. 71403237）, the Project of Humanities and Social Science of the Ministry of Education in China （Grant No. 14YJC790089）, the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. LQ14G030008）, the Beijing Social Science Foundation （Grant No. 14JGC100）, and the Scientific Research Fund of Zhejiang Provincial Education Department （No. Y201430552）. Rui Mao also thanks the Collaborative Innovation Center for Rural Reform and Development for financial support.
文摘Structural change theories usually assume agents are homogeneous. However, because of demand-side or supply-side heterogeneities, the probability of switching among sectors differs across people. This paper reveals these differences through restoring a long-period, individual-level panel dataset from China＇s Urban Household Survey for 1986-2009. We find that both for people who started working for the first time and those who switched jobs, the sector choice depends on personal characteristics. In particular, women and people with higher educational attainment or a previous white- collar job are more likely to join the tertiary sector and less likely to join the primary sector. These effects are substantial even if the macroeconomic variables used in conventional structural change theories are controlled. They are also robust in various periods and at more detailed industry levels. Our research suggests that it is important to pay greater attention to the labor composition when mal^ng policy related to economic structural change.
基金The authors express their appreciation for the funding support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation program, ＂Research on the Improvement of Chinese Employees＇ Wage and SaIary Formation Mechanisms＂ （project number： 70873022）, the Key Project of the Shanghai Scientific and Technological Innovation Committee （project number： 09ZS 11）, the Young Scholars Program in Social Science Research of the Ministry of Education （project number： 06JC790012）, and the Shanghai Key Project Research Program （project number： B101）. The original draft was presented at the 188th lecture in the Modern Economics Series hosted by the Research Center for the Chinese Socialist Market Economy at Fudan University. We hereby extend our sincere thanks to all the participants and our anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. Needless to say, we are responsible for any errors or omissions in this study.
文摘Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.
基金the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China(No.19ZDA002):"Study of General Secretary Xi Jinping's Thought on and Practice in Poverty Governance"the Summary Project of 2021 Poverty Alleviation and Rural Revitalization Cases of the National Rural Revitalization Administration(No.TC210F06R/15):"Summary Project of Cases of FourVillages inWest China."。
文摘The rural revitalization strategy represents a quantum leap in both the theory and practice of rural development in China,and serves as a crucial solution to address the array of challenges facing rural areas.Multi-dimensionally,the rural revitalization strategy sets out the general requirements of“building rural areas with thriving businesses,pleasant living environments,good social civility,effective governance,and prosperity,”which echo the measures of new urbanization:efficient,green,humanistic,well-governed,and inclusive.Specifically,“building rural areas with prosperity”aligns with the development requirement of urban-rural dual structure theory;“building rural areas with thriving businesses”meets the development requirement of the industrial division of labor and integration theory;“building rural areas with pleasant living environments and good social civility”follows the development requirement of sustainable development theory;and“building rural areas with effective governance”tallies with the development requirement of rural governance theory.Urbanization theory,urban-rural dual structure theory,the industrial division of labor and integration theory,sustainable development theory,and rural governance theory serve as crucial theoretical references for the rural revitalization strategy,helping make clear its conceptual underpinnings.
