Seasonal Prediction of the Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2021

The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions,a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern China.However,the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July 2021 and its seasonal predictability are still unknown.Here,the observed northward shift of the WPSH in July 2021 is shown to correspond to a meridional dipole pattern of the 850-hPa geopotential height to the east of China,the amplitude of which became the strongest since 1979.The meridional dipole pattern is two nodes of the Pacific–Japan pattern.To investigate the predictability of the WPSH variation,a 21-member ensemble of seasonal predictions initiated from the end of June 2021 was conducted.The predictable and unpredictable components of the meridional dipole pattern were identified from the ensemble simulations.Its predictable component is driven by positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical western Pacific.The positive precipitation anomalies are caused by positive horizonal advection of the mean moist enthalpy by southwesterly anomalies to the northwestern flank of anticyclonic anomalies excited by the existing La Niña,which is skillfully predicted by the model.The leading mode of the unpredictable component is associated with the atmospheric internal intraseasonal oscillations,which are not initialized in the simulations.The relative contributions of the predictable and unpredictable components to the observed northward shift of the WPSH at 850 hPa are 28.0%and 72.0%,respectively.

Numerical Simulation of the Relationship between the Anomaly of Subtropical High over East Asia and the Convective Activities in the Western Tropical Pacific

In this paper, a close relationship between the intraseasonal variation of subtropical high over East Asia and the convective activities around the South China Sea and the Philippines is analysed from OLR data.This relationship is studied by using the theory of wave propagating in a slowly varying medium and by using a quasi-geoslrophic, linear, spherical model and the IAP-GCM, respectively. The results show that when the SST is warming around the western tropical Pacific or the Philippines, the convective activities are intensified around the Philippines. As a consequence, the subtropical high will be intensified over East Asia. The computed results also show that when the anomaly of convective activities are caused around the Philippines, a teleconnection pattern of circulation anomalies will be caused over South Asia, East Asia and North America.

Impact of Surface Sensible Heating over the Tibetan Plateau on the Western Pacific Subtropical High: A Land–Air–Sea Interaction Perspective

The impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau （SHTP） on the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） with and without air-sea interaction was investigated in this study. Data analysis indicated that SHTP acts as a relatively independent factor in modulating the WPSH anomaly compared with ENSO events. Stronger spring SHTP is usually fol- lowed by an enhanced and westward extension of the WPSH in summer, and vice versa. Numerical experiments using both an AGCM and a CGCM confirmed that SHTP influences the large-scale circulation anomaly over the Pacific, which features a barotropic anticyclonic response over the northwestern Pacific and a cyclonic response to the south. Owing to different background circulation in spring and summer, such a response facilitates a subdued WPSH in spring but an en- hanced WPSH in summer. Moreover, the CGCM results showed that the equatorial low-level westerly at the south edge of the cyclonic anomaly brings about a warm SST anomaly （SSTA） in the equatorial central Pacific via surface warm advection. Subsequently, an atmospheric Rossby wave is stimulated to the northwest of the warm SSTA, which in turn enhances the at- mospheric dipole anomalies over the western Pacific. Therefore, the air-sea feedbacks involved tend to reinforce the effect of SHTP on the WPSH anomaly, and the role of SHTP on general circulation needs to be considered in a land-air-sea interaction framework.

The Interdecadal Variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High as Measured by 500 hPa Eddy Geopotential Height

The interdecadal variation of the summer western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)during1948–2009 is investigated in this study.Compared with most previous works,which focused on the 500 h Pa geopotential height,the interdecadal variation of the horizontal winds,relative vorticity,and eddy geopotential height over the western Pacific are all analyzed.The weakened anticyclone and decreased negative relative vorticity at middle-low levels over the western Pacific suggest that the WPSH weakened during 1979–2009 relative to1948–78.After subtracting the zonal belt mean height between 0°and 40°N,the 500 hP a eddy geopotential height with significant negative anomalies over the western Pacific can correctly depict this weakened interdecadal variation of the WPSH.The illusory westward extension signal reflected by the 500 h Pa geopotential height may derive from the significant increment of the geopotential height at middle and lower latitudes in the late 1970s under global warming.

VARIABILITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SEA TEMPERATURE VARIATION CONSIDERING THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS

By adopting characteristic index data for the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) from the National Climate Center of China, U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) sea surface temperature(SST) data, we studied the WPSH variability considering the background of climate warming by using a Gaussian filter, moving averages, correlation analysis, and synthetic analysis. Our results show that with climate warming over the past 60 years, significant changes in the WPSH include its enlarged area, strengthened intensity,westward extended ridge point and southward expanded southern boundary, as well as enhanced interannual fluctuations in all these indices. The western ridge point of the WPSH consistently varies with temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, but the location of the ridgeline varies independently. The intensity and area of the WPSH were both significantly increased in the late 1980 s. Specifically, the western ridge point started to significantly extend westward in the early 1990 s, and the associated interannual variability had a significant increase in the late 1990 s; in addition, the ridgeline was swaying along the north-south-north direction, and the corresponding variability was also greatly enhanced in the late 1990 s. With climate warming, the SST increase becomes more weakly correlated with the WPSH intensity enhancement but more strongly correlated with the westward extension of the ridge point in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean in winter, corresponding to an expanding WPSH in space. In the northern Pacific in winter, the SST decrease has a weaker correlation with the southerly location of the ridgeline but also a stronger correlation with the westward extension of the ridge point. In the tropical western Pacific in winter, the correlations of the SST decrease with the WPSH intensity enhancement, and the westward extension of the ridge point is strengthened. These observations can be explained by strengthened Hadley circulations, the dominant effects of the southward shift, and additional effects of the weakened ascending branch of the Walker circulation during warm climatological periods,which consequently lead to strengthened intensities, increased areas, and southward expansions of the WPSH in summer.

Different Configurations of Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High and East Asian Westerly Jet in Summer

This study investigates the circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with different configurations of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)and the East Asian westerly jet(EAJ)in summer on interannual timescales.The in-phase configuration of the WNPSH and EAJ is characterized by the westward(eastward)extension of the WNPSH and the southward(northward)shift of the EAJ,which is consistent with the general correspondence between their variations.The out-of-phase configuration includes the residual cases.We find that the in-phase configuration manifests itself as a typical meridional teleconnection.For instance,there is an anticyclonic(cyclonic)anomaly over the tropical western North Pacific and a cyclonic(anticyclonic)anomaly over the mid-latitudes of East Asia in the lower troposphere.These circulation anomalies are more conducive to rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River basin and south Japan than are the individual WNPSH or EAJ.By contrast,for the out-of-phase configuration,the mid-latitude cyclonic(anticyclonic)anomaly is absent,and the lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies feature an anticyclonic(cyclonic)anomaly with a large meridional extension.Correspondingly,significant rainfall anomalies move northward to North China and the northern Korean Peninsula.Further results indicate that the out-of-phase configuration is associated with the developing phase of ENSO,with strong and significant sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific which occur simultaneously during summer and persist into the following winter.This is sharply different from the in-phase configuration,for which the tropical SSTs are not a necessity.

CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSE ANALYSIS OF WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH DURING THE HUAIHE RIVER FLOODS IN 2003

1 INTRODUCTION In summer, different assembly of the intensity, location and vertical structure of the subtropical high and the earlier/later time of its seasonal northwards jump bring about different precipitation patterns over China. Therefore, subtropical high activity and its cause during the occurrence of extreme climatic event over China and the cause of China drought/flood are studied to improve weather forecasting.

Modeling and Diagnostic Studies on the Variations of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific from 1880 to 1999

Index series of Subtropical High over the western Pacific was extended to AD 1880 by using of statistical and modeling method. Reconstructed indices by both methods show good accordance each other. Association of the indices to the rainfall patterns over eastern China indicated the robustness of the reconstructions.

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

DISTRIBUTION OF LOW FREQUENCY WAVES IN NORTH PACIFIC AND INTRASEASONAL ABNORMALITY OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH

By using ECMWF (2. 5°×2. 5°) grid data, analyzing correlation for the summer (June-August) of 1980 (the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) anomalously more to the south), 1988 (the WPSH anomalously more to the north), 1981 (normal) in the west Pacific area, distribution characteristics of the low frequency waves are discussed. The relationship between distribution of the low frequency waves and intraseasonal abnormality of the west subtropical high is also analyzed. There is some discussions:(1)If the WPSH acts anomalously in summer, there is a distinct zonal wave series in the subtropical zone of the north Pacific.(2) One of the important characteristics of the WPSH abnormality is that there are low frequency geopotential high centres from east Pacific and northeast Asia, being combined in the west Pacific area.For different circulation, the combination areas are different, which define the WSPH anomalously more to the north or south.

Simulation of the western North Pacific subtropical high in El Ni?o decaying summers by CMIP5 AGCMs

The performances of CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs） in simulating the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in El Nino decaying summers are examined in this study. Results show that most models can reproduce the spatial pattern of both climatological and anomalous circulation associated with the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers. Most CMIP5 AGCMs can capture the westward shift of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers compared with the climatological location. With respect to the sub-seasonal variation of the WNPSH, the performances of these AGCMs in reproducing the northward jump of the WNPSH are better than simulating the eastward retreat of the WNPSH from July to August. Twenty-one out of twenty-two （20 out of 22） models can reasonably reproduce the northward jump of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers （climatology）, while only 7 out of 22 （8 out of 22） AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the eastward retreat of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers （climatology）. In addition, there is a close connection between the climatological WNPSH location bias and that in El Nino decaying summers.

ANALYSIS OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH DURING A HEAVY RAIN PERIOD OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IN JUNE 2005

The NCEP/NCAR II daily mean reanalysis data and observed precipitation data are employed to investigate the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during the heavy rain period over the southern China in June 2005. Results show that there may exist a relationship between the east-west shift of the WPSH and the process of a southern China heavy rain. The analysis indicates that the vertical motion in the WPSH area is mainly caused by the latent heat release of monsoon rain belts on its northern and southern sides. The vertical motion could cause the accumulation of air mass in the center and west of the WPSH, which leads to its strengthening. The appearance of the northern and southern monsoon rain belts could not only enhance the WPSH by strengthening the descending draft, but also excite the development of positive vorticity and restrict the WPSH's movement in the north-south direction. Moreover, the Indian monsoon rainfall to the west of the WPSH may excite the development of anticyclonic vorticity on its eastern side, which leads to the westward extension of the WPSH.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990.Correspondingly,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990.The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after 1990.The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences.Before 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,respectively.Meanwhile,the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific.After 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,respectively.Overall,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990.Consequently,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH.On the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF MEDIUM-RANGE CHANGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH Ⅱ. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HEATINGSOURCE OVER WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC

Numerical experiments are carried out using a global spectral model to study the role of an ideal heating source over the western tropical Pacific region in a medium-term weather process that marks the western advancement of the subtropical high in mid-June 1979. The result has indicated that the effect of the ideal heating source is evident in about 4 days after the inclusion in the high and the circulation at mid-and high-latitudes over the eastern part of China; the disturbance produced over the tropical ocean first transfers towards the northwest along the easterly flow on the southern edge of the subtropical high and then divides into two branches as it moves over the westerly over the mid-latitude area, one continuing the journey northwestward and the other turning to the northeast by east, resulting in changes in the subtropical high and the westerly through combined action.

Projected changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high under six global warming targets

The summer western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) has large influences on the East Asian summer climate. Many studies have focused on the projected changes in the WNPSH, but little is known about the changes under different global warming targets, such as 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. This study investigates the changes in the WNPSH under six global warming targets(1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃,3.0℃, 3.5℃, and 4.0℃) in both the mid-and lower troposphere, using the outputs of CMIP5 model in historical simulations and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The projected changes in the WNPSH, which is measured by multiple variables, show that it changes little under the 1.5℃ target in the mid-troposphere, but weakens and retreats approximately 2.5° in longitude under the 2.0℃ target. It tends to linearly weaken with warming greater than 2.5℃ and shifts eastward by approximately 6.0° in longitude by the 4.0℃ target. Meanwhile, the WNPSH intensifies and extends westward under the 1.5℃ target in the lower troposphere, but changes little with warming rising from 1.5℃ to 2.0℃. It is projected to extend westward by approximately2.0° in longitude by the 4.0℃ target.

ABRUPT CHANGES OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS INTERANNUAL VARIATION DURING LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER

The 500-hPa geopotential height data used in this paper are from NCEP/NCAR data set for the period from 1979 to 1996 (from March to July). Using pentad average, we define the intensity, westernmost ridge point and mean latitude of the subtropical high ridge. Then the wavelet transform and EOF analysis are performed. It is found that there mainly exist three interseasonal abrupt change processes, which correspond to the onset time of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM), the beginning and the end of the Mei-yu respectively. The interannual variation of the subtropical high in late spring and early summer presents quasi-4-year and 8-year periods.

Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high

-Mainly on the basis of the data obtained during PRC/US bilateral TOGA cruises, abnormal variation occurred during the 1986/1987 El Nino is shown in this paper about the thermal structure and circulation of the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean. The effects of the abmormal variation on the subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed. During the El Nino: (1) In the east part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 165° E section are taken as an example), the water wanner than 29 C in the upper layer spread on the longitudinal section and positive temperature anormalies appeared in a large area of the sea surface. (2) In the west part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 137°E section are representative ), the cross section occupied by the upper layer warmer water ( T >28 ℃ ) became shrunk, and the sea surface temperature showed negative amomalies. (3) The eastward flows in the upper layer of the 165°E section strengthened. (4)The northward flow volume of warm water from the origin area of Kuroshio, i. e. , the tropical oceanic area south of 18?0' N and from the west of 130?E to the Philippine coast, decreased. When those kinds of abnomal variation occurred, air divergence on the low level (1 000 hPa) over the Northwest Pacific Ocean was intensified, favourable to the strengthening of subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Diagnosis of the Medium-Range Variation of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific during a Meiyu Process by Three-Dimensional E-P Flux

In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Nifia years with a similar sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the westem Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.

Interdecadal change in Western Pacific Subtropical High and climatic effects

Western North Pacific Subtropical High is a very important atmospheric circulation system influencing the summer climate over eastern China. Its interdecadal change is analyzed in this study. There is a significant decadal shift in about 1979/1980. Since 1980, the Western North Pacific Subtropical High has enlarged, intensified, and shifted southwestward. This change gives rise to an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the South China Sea to western Pacific and thus causes wet anomalies over the Yangtze River valley. During the summers of 1980-1999, the precipitation is 63.9 mm above normal, while during 1958-1979 it is 27.3 mm below normal. The difference is significant at the 99% confidence level as a t-test shown. The southwestward expanding of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High also leads to a significant warming in southern China, during 1980-1999 the summer mean temperature is 0.37篊 warmer than that of the period 1958-1979. The strong warming is primarily due to the clearer skies associated with the stronger downward air motion as the Western North Pacific Subtropical High expanding to the west and controlling southern China. It is also found that the relative percentage of tropical cyclones in the regions south of 20篘 is decreasing since the 1980s, but in the regions north of 20篘 that is increasing at the same time. The Western North Pacific Subtropical High responds significantly to sea surface temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific with a lag of one-two seasons and simultaneously to sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean. The changes in the sea surface temperatures are mainly responsible for the interdecadal variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High.