In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to ap...In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.展开更多
Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core tempe...Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.展开更多
This paper analyses the relationship of forest fires and sunspots in Hcilongjiang Province in the past 40 ycars(1950-1989). The results indicated that each of the forest fire indexes such as forest Fire rate(y1), time...This paper analyses the relationship of forest fires and sunspots in Hcilongjiang Province in the past 40 ycars(1950-1989). The results indicated that each of the forest fire indexes such as forest Fire rate(y1), times of forest firc(Y2), average forest fire area for one time Y4 (equals the Y5 / Y2) and total forest fire arca(Y5) has a negative correlation with mean annual relative sunspots of the same year; total times of forest fire inside and outside of forest stands( Y3) has a positive correlation with sunspots. The 5 indexes stated above has a similar relation to last year's mean annual relative sunspots.展开更多
Detecting naturally arising structures in data is central to knowledge extraction from data. In most applications, the main challenge is in the choice of the appropriate model for exploring the data features. The choi...Detecting naturally arising structures in data is central to knowledge extraction from data. In most applications, the main challenge is in the choice of the appropriate model for exploring the data features. The choice is generally poorly understood and any tentative choice may be too restrictive. Growing volumes of data, disparate data sources and modelling techniques entail the need for model optimization via adaptability rather than comparability. We propose a novel two-stage algorithm to modelling continuous data consisting of an unsupervised stage whereby the algorithm searches through the data for optimal parameter values and a supervised stage that adapts the parameters for predictive modelling. The method is implemented on the sunspots data with inherently Gaussian distributional properties and assumed bi-modality. Optimal values separating high from lows cycles are obtained via multiple simulations. Early patterns for each recorded cycle reveal that the first 3 years provide a sufficient basis for predicting the peak. Multiple Support Vector Machine runs using repeatedly improved data parameters show that the approach yields greater accuracy and reliability than conventional approaches and provides a good basis for model selection. Model reliability is established via multiple simulations of this type.展开更多
The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the...The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices(ESAI)elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI's yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.展开更多
The decay of sunspot plays a key role in magnetic flux transportation in solar active regions(ARs).To better understand the physical mechanism of the entire decay process of a sunspot,an α-configuration sunspot in AR...The decay of sunspot plays a key role in magnetic flux transportation in solar active regions(ARs).To better understand the physical mechanism of the entire decay process of a sunspot,an α-configuration sunspot in AR NOAA 12411 was studied.Based on the continuum intensity images and vector magnetic field data with stray light correction from Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager,the area,vector magnetic field and magnetic flux in the umbra and penumbra are calculated with time,respectively.Our main results are as follows:(1) The decay curves of the sunspot area in its umbra,penumbra,and whole sunspot take the appearance of Gaussian profiles.The area decay rates of the umbra,penumbra and whole sunspot are-1.56 MSH day^(-1),-12.61 MSH day^(-1) and-14.04 MSH day^(-1),respectively;(2) With the decay of the sunspot,the total magnetic field strength and the vertical component of the penumbra increase,and the magnetic field of the penumbra becomes more vertical.Meanwhile,the total magnetic field strength and vertical magnetic field strength for the umbra decrease,and the inclination angle changes slightly with an average value of about 20°;(3) The magnetic flux decay curves of the sunspot in its umbra,penumbra,and whole sunspot exhibit quadratic patterns,their magnetic flux decay rates of the umbra,penumbra and whole sunspot are-9.84 × 10^(19)Mx day^(-1),-1.59 × 10^(20)Mx day^(-1) and -2.60 × 10^(20)Mx day^(-1),respectively.The observation suggests that the penumbra may be transformed into the umbra,resulting in the increase of the average vertical magnetic field strength and the reduction of the inclination angle in the penumbra during the decay of the sunspot.展开更多
Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an...Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.展开更多
We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the ampli...We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.展开更多
We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attract...We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 (month^- 1). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.展开更多
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo ...We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.展开更多
It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models....It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.展开更多
Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency (0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz) oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations ...Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency (0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz) oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.展开更多
A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of ...A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.展开更多
It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the sol...It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.展开更多
We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light (WL) associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon...We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light (WL) associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.展开更多
Listed examples of virus transmission epidemics that can be strongly transmitted through the air<span "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">caused by sunspot change...Listed examples of virus transmission epidemics that can be strongly transmitted through the air<span "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">caused by sunspot change cycle</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">analyzed the mechanism that promotes the generation of new viruses. From the schematic diagram of the changes in the combined force of the hydrodynamic effect of the sun sweeping the earth and the sweeping force, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">we </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">obtain the </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">places that are prone to light vortices are 30 degrees north latitude and 30 degrees</span><span "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">south latitude on the east coast of the mainland creatively</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">The curved continental lines are perfect, the range of the light vortex generated is more obviously, and the effect is stronger. And the curved continental lines are perfect, the range of the light vortex generated is more obviously, and the effect is stronger. It is inferred that the light vortex produces the special amplified energy so</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> that can</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> make the virus mutate to produce a new highly infectious novel coronavirus. The earliest known place and time of the novel coronavirus origin are consistent with the reasoning of the new theory. Because the radius and frequency of the light vortex are different, the resulting virus strains are also different. Moreover, the fatality rate in the light vortex area is much higher than that in the non-light vortex area, indicating that the virus</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">’</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s toxicity and lethality are higher in the light vortex area, so it can explain why Russia, India, and countries in the African equatorial region mortality are much lower than the United States, Italy, Spain and Brazil. Finally, preventive and recommended measures are proposed.</span>展开更多
Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that (...Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that (1) the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; (2) the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; (3) the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.展开更多
Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the e...Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show (1) for 46 months (94%) of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri - Di plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level a = 5%, and for 36 months (73%) the fitting is even better, for a = 1%; (2) time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; (3) the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log/~ = 0.704 lnDi - 0.291.展开更多
The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (R z ) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parame...The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (R z ) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about 8 and 13 months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with R z , of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with R z based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays between the flare parameters with respect to R z , aa to the flare parameters, and aa to R z at their peaks in a solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model (82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively). These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help us to understand the mechanism of solar flares and to improve the prediction of the solar flares.展开更多
文摘In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.
文摘Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.
文摘This paper analyses the relationship of forest fires and sunspots in Hcilongjiang Province in the past 40 ycars(1950-1989). The results indicated that each of the forest fire indexes such as forest Fire rate(y1), times of forest firc(Y2), average forest fire area for one time Y4 (equals the Y5 / Y2) and total forest fire arca(Y5) has a negative correlation with mean annual relative sunspots of the same year; total times of forest fire inside and outside of forest stands( Y3) has a positive correlation with sunspots. The 5 indexes stated above has a similar relation to last year's mean annual relative sunspots.
文摘Detecting naturally arising structures in data is central to knowledge extraction from data. In most applications, the main challenge is in the choice of the appropriate model for exploring the data features. The choice is generally poorly understood and any tentative choice may be too restrictive. Growing volumes of data, disparate data sources and modelling techniques entail the need for model optimization via adaptability rather than comparability. We propose a novel two-stage algorithm to modelling continuous data consisting of an unsupervised stage whereby the algorithm searches through the data for optimal parameter values and a supervised stage that adapts the parameters for predictive modelling. The method is implemented on the sunspots data with inherently Gaussian distributional properties and assumed bi-modality. Optimal values separating high from lows cycles are obtained via multiple simulations. Early patterns for each recorded cycle reveal that the first 3 years provide a sufficient basis for predicting the peak. Multiple Support Vector Machine runs using repeatedly improved data parameters show that the approach yields greater accuracy and reliability than conventional approaches and provides a good basis for model selection. Model reliability is established via multiple simulations of this type.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11573065 and 11633008)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices(ESAI)elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI's yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11973084,11873087,12003066 and 11527804)Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science under number 202205AG070009+5 种基金Yunnan Science Foundation of China under number:202201AT070194Youth Innovation Promotion Association,CAS(No.2019061)CAS“Light of West China”ProgramYunnan Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars(No.202001AV070004)Key Research and Development Project of Yunnan Province under number 202003AD150019Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by YNAST.9。
文摘The decay of sunspot plays a key role in magnetic flux transportation in solar active regions(ARs).To better understand the physical mechanism of the entire decay process of a sunspot,an α-configuration sunspot in AR NOAA 12411 was studied.Based on the continuum intensity images and vector magnetic field data with stray light correction from Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager,the area,vector magnetic field and magnetic flux in the umbra and penumbra are calculated with time,respectively.Our main results are as follows:(1) The decay curves of the sunspot area in its umbra,penumbra,and whole sunspot take the appearance of Gaussian profiles.The area decay rates of the umbra,penumbra and whole sunspot are-1.56 MSH day^(-1),-12.61 MSH day^(-1) and-14.04 MSH day^(-1),respectively;(2) With the decay of the sunspot,the total magnetic field strength and the vertical component of the penumbra increase,and the magnetic field of the penumbra becomes more vertical.Meanwhile,the total magnetic field strength and vertical magnetic field strength for the umbra decrease,and the inclination angle changes slightly with an average value of about 20°;(3) The magnetic flux decay curves of the sunspot in its umbra,penumbra,and whole sunspot exhibit quadratic patterns,their magnetic flux decay rates of the umbra,penumbra and whole sunspot are-9.84 × 10^(19)Mx day^(-1),-1.59 × 10^(20)Mx day^(-1) and -2.60 × 10^(20)Mx day^(-1),respectively.The observation suggests that the penumbra may be transformed into the umbra,resulting in the increase of the average vertical magnetic field strength and the reduction of the inclination angle in the penumbra during the decay of the sunspot.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) undergrant numbers 10673031 and 40636031the National Basic Research Program of China 973 undergrant number G2006CB806301.
文摘Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 (month^- 1). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.
基金support through the JC Bose Fellowship(project No.SR/S2/JCB-61/2009)
文摘We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10973020 and 11273031)
文摘It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.
基金partially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federationthe Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Project II.16.3.2)+2 种基金the Program of basic research of the RAS Presidium No.28Goszadanie 2018 (No. 007-00163-18-00 of 12.01.2018)supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)(No. 17-52-80064 BRICS-a)
文摘Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency (0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz) oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.
基金the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,U1931107)the Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province(2018FA035)+3 种基金the NSFC(Nos.11803005 and 11911530690)Shenzhen Technology Project(JCYJ20180306172239618)the NSFC(Grant Nos.11427901,11673038,11773038,11873062 and 11973056)the Open Research Program(KLSA202007)of Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China。
文摘A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant numbers U2031202,U1731124 and U1531247the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China under Grant number 2014FY120300the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant number XXH13505-04。
文摘It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.
文摘We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light (WL) associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.
文摘Listed examples of virus transmission epidemics that can be strongly transmitted through the air<span "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">caused by sunspot change cycle</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">analyzed the mechanism that promotes the generation of new viruses. From the schematic diagram of the changes in the combined force of the hydrodynamic effect of the sun sweeping the earth and the sweeping force, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">we </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">obtain the </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">places that are prone to light vortices are 30 degrees north latitude and 30 degrees</span><span "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">south latitude on the east coast of the mainland creatively</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">The curved continental lines are perfect, the range of the light vortex generated is more obviously, and the effect is stronger. And the curved continental lines are perfect, the range of the light vortex generated is more obviously, and the effect is stronger. It is inferred that the light vortex produces the special amplified energy so</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> that can</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> make the virus mutate to produce a new highly infectious novel coronavirus. The earliest known place and time of the novel coronavirus origin are consistent with the reasoning of the new theory. Because the radius and frequency of the light vortex are different, the resulting virus strains are also different. Moreover, the fatality rate in the light vortex area is much higher than that in the non-light vortex area, indicating that the virus</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">’</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s toxicity and lethality are higher in the light vortex area, so it can explain why Russia, India, and countries in the African equatorial region mortality are much lower than the United States, Italy, Spain and Brazil. Finally, preventive and recommended measures are proposed.</span>
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11003041)the Yunnan Science Foundation of China under grant number2009CD120the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that (1) the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; (2) the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; (3) the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show (1) for 46 months (94%) of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri - Di plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level a = 5%, and for 36 months (73%) the fitting is even better, for a = 1%; (2) time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; (3) the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log/~ = 0.704 lnDi - 0.291.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020, 40890161 and 10921303)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No.2011CB811406)
文摘The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (R z ) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about 8 and 13 months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with R z , of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with R z based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays between the flare parameters with respect to R z , aa to the flare parameters, and aa to R z at their peaks in a solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model (82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively). These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help us to understand the mechanism of solar flares and to improve the prediction of the solar flares.