A Research on the Threshold Effect of Credit Rationingupon the Urban-rural Income Gap in Rural Areas

在剖析了信贷配给与城乡收入差距之间作用机制的基础上,论文构建了信贷配给与城乡收入差距的面板门槛模型,选取3 1 个省市1987年- 201 3年的省级面板数据,运用面板门槛模型估计方法,实证分析信贷配给对城乡收入差距的影响,并且从区域层面进行了比较分析.结果显示：降低信贷配给程度有助于缓解城乡收入差距,而从东部、中部、西部三大区域的实证结果来看,各地区的信贷配给程度的提升对城乡收入差距的扩大有不同程度的影响.最后根据研究结果,提出降低各地区农业信贷配给程度的措施,从而达到缩小城乡收入差距的目的.

Credit Rationing in Medium-small Enterprises Credit Market under Asymmetric Information

Credit rationing has been an objective phenomenon in medium-small enterprises credit market of China. By analyzing the present situation of medium-small enterprises credit market of China, this study gives a new credit rationing model fitting medium-small enterprises credit market of China well. It has been showed in the empirical study that different factor has each different influence on medium-small enterprises credit market; further more, only the change of chastisement factor can make the medium-small enterprises credit market achieve whole success, but other factors can merely get integrant success even though under the most ideal condition.

Does driving-day-based tradable credit scheme outperform license plate rationing? Examination considering transaction cost

This article models a novel driving-day-based tradable credit scheme (DD-TCS) to alleviate urban traffic congestion. In this model, car-using allowances (in terms of the number of days in a month, termed as "credit") are freely and uniformly allocated to all travellers, who are also allowed to trade them in a market according to his/her travel needs (e.g. driving more or fewer days than the free endowment). As opposed to most studies on TCS, this paper explicitly considers the transaction cost (e.g. infor-mation cost of finding potential traders) in the trading market. To assess the feasibility of DD-TCS, we compare it against the license plate rationing (LPR) scheme, which has been practically implemented in many cities such as Beijing and Chengdu in China. Taking the performance of LPR as a benchmark, we quantify the threshold values of the transaction cost in DD-TCS when the two schemes yield equivalent performance (in terms of the total gener-alized cost). In numerical studies, we also compare the DD-TCS and LPR with the no-action case and the congestion pricing case (representing the theoretical optimum). Results show that both DD-TCS and LPR outperform the no-action case under certain conditions. With small trans-action cost, DD-TCS may achieve a lower system cost that can be very close to the ideal optimum. In addition, parameter analysis shows that DD-TCS performs better than LPR in a wide range of transaction cost, where the threshold values appear to account for a considerable portion of the auto travel time. This implies that DD-TCS will be more appealing than LPR in practice because a transaction cost lower than the extremely large threshold values can be easily achieved for the trading market, e.g. via a mobile platform and modern communication techniques.

The Analysis of Credit Using and Rationing under Farmer 's Risk Attitudes Difference

This paper conducts a survey of 237 rural households in Zhangjiagang City,identifies farmers' risk attitude through ELCE method and problem design and empirically studies the relationship between risk attitudes and credit rationing by utilizing Probit and Logit model. The results show that farmers' risk attitude and credit rationing are in a significant positive correlation. The stronger farmers' risk aversion is,the more serious the demanded credit rationing becomes. Such risk attitude determines the risk cost and risk premium,thus affecting the credit behavior and credit rationing degree. In addition,distance between farmers' residence far the city and their land amount have a positive significant influence on credit rationing,while farmers' education level,income,family labor force have a negative significant effect on credit rationing. Based on these findings,the paper further analyzes the relationship between farmers' credit using and credit rationing as to farmers with different risk attitudes. Measures to relieve the farmer's credit rationing must be taken from government,financial institutions and farmers,respectively.

Application of a Multi-Agent System (MAS) to Rational Credit Rating

A Multi-Agent System （ MAS ） is a promising approach to build complex system. This paper introduces the research of the Inner-Enterprise Credit Rating MAS （ IECRMAS）. To raise the rating accuracy, we not only consider the rating-target＇s information, but also focus on the evaluators＇ feature information and propose the rational rating-group formation algorithm based on an anti-bias measurement of the group. We also propose the rational rating individual, which consists of the evaluator and the assistant rating agent. A rational group formation protocol is designed to coordinate autonomous agents to perform the rating job.

Empirical study on the financial repression of rural households＇ debit and credit and the effects on their welfare in less developed regions --Take Suqian city of Jiangsu province as an example

This paper carries out empirical analysis of the ration behavior of rural credit cooperatives in less developed regions in providing loan services to rural households. It also inspects the interaction between rural households＇ demand for credit and the loan supply from rural credit cooperatives with simultaneous discrete model. The performance of supporting agriculture through a new round reform of rural credit cooperatives is doubtable in this sample region.

参与农业产业链对农户信贷配给的影响及机制研究

基于陕西、山东两省1159户农户微观调研数据,在理论分析的基础上,通过Probit模型和中介效应模型,检验了农业产业链影响农户信贷配给的机制及效应。研究发现:参与农业产业链对农户供给型数量配给和需求型价格配给、风险配给及交易成本配给均有明显缓解作用;通过稳健性检验和工具变量法处理内生性问题后,结论依然成立。机制检验表明,参与农业产业链可以通过农业订单、担保措施和农业保险来提高农户抵押担保能力,缓解数量配给;通过增加农业收入、降低生产成本和提升产品质量来提高农户农业经营收益,缓解价格配给;通过减少生产风险、市场风险和自然风险来降低农户农业经营风险,缓解风险配给;通过减少贷款手续、审批时间和贷后检查来降低农户信贷交易成本,缓解交易成本配给。农业产业链对规模异质性农户的信贷配给影响存在差异:农业产业链对规模农户数量配给有显著负向影响,对小农户数量配给影响不显著,对小农户各类需求型信贷配给均有显著负向影响,对规模农户需求型信贷配给的缓解作用仅体现在交易成本配给上。因此,健全农业产业链利益联结和信息共享机制,完善信贷抵押担保功能,是新时期强化乡村振兴金融服务的重要战略选择。

农地经营权强度能缓解新型农业经营主体供给型信贷配给吗?——基于fsQCA方法的路径分析

新型农业经营主体虽然有着强烈的机构贷款需求,但因缺乏有效抵押品,正规金融机构普遍对其施加严格的供给型信贷配给。“三权分置”从法律层面激活农地经营权,是破解供给型信贷配给难题的重要契机。本文从法律维度、事实维度、感知维度对农地经营权强度展开维度化分析,厘清其影响新型农业经营主体供给型信贷配给的作用机理与具体路径,并使用组态视角的模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法进行实证检验。研究发现,新型农业经营主体的供给型信贷配给,既能由法律维度、事实维度和感知维度的农地经营权同时具有较高强度而得以缓解,也能仅凭法律维度或事实维度的农地经营权具有较高强度得以缓解,但感知维度的农地经营权具有较高强度尚不足以单独发挥缓解之效。为进一步释放农地经营权改革的信贷效应,既要完善农地经营权的法律赋权与保障转入农地的实际权利,也要强化主体对农地经营权的安全感知。本文既从理论上深化了对农地经营权强度的理解,揭示了法律赋权、事实拥有、先验认知等不同层面的产权排他性、稳定性和安全性的内涵,也在实践上拓宽了破解供给型信贷配给难题的现实途径。

Credit Rationing and the Simulation of Bank-Small and Medium Sized Firm Artificial Credit Market

By analyzing the financing difficulties faced by the small and medium-sized firms, the paper built an artificial credit markets with the agent-based computational modeling to simulate the real world credit transactions. There are firms, banks, different risk-type projects as well as legal and supervision environments in which debt contracts constitute the financial instruments. The simulation results show that the number of collateral, average success probability of projects, and the prime interest rate have materially impact on bank's average profit, bank's capital, the overall interest rate,the number of borrowing firms, loan size, and the degree of credit rationing. These results in line with those of the classical S-W model in the sense that the relationship between bank profits and interest rates is non-monotonic as well as the relationship between credit rationing and interest rates. And thus there is an adverse selection effect in credit rationing theory.

我国商业银行数字化与信贷配给:基于上市银行面板数据的实证研究

近些年我国商业银行数字化转型得到了国家大力支持,数字化对于商业银行信贷业务的影响日渐深远.本研究旨在探讨商业银行数字化对信贷配给的影响,将数字化作为关键变量纳入了S-W模型,并提出数字化对于信贷供给、信贷结构和信贷价格影响的相关理论假说.在此基础上,本研究还利用2010-2020年42家上市商业银行面板数据对理论假说进行了实证检验.研究结果表明数字化有利于增加商业银行信贷供给、优化信贷结构,但是对于信贷价格并没有显著影响.在异质性分析中,大型商业银行的数字化水平提高对增加信贷供给和信贷结构优化的影响要大于非大型商业银行.基于实证结果,本研究提出了分类实施商业银行的数字化路径、加强智慧营销和数字风控等政策建议.

银行治理、信贷配给与中小企业融资

中小企业贷款难问题是目前困扰这些企业迅速发展的重要因素,国内外对这一问题成因进行了诸多研究与分析。从我国银行治理结构特点的这一独特视角出发,结合信贷配给理论,对不同治理结构下银行信贷行为进行建模与比较分析发现,银行治理结构通过影响银行信贷选择行为,将会对信贷市场配给程度以及中小企业获得贷款的可能性产生重要影响。

不完全信息下银行信贷风险的决策机制

本文研究商业银行的信贷市场在不完全信息下银行信贷风险的决策机制． 给出了当企业的初始财富达到银行所要求的最低限度而且不超过最高限度两种情形下银行信贷风险决策机制的配给和无需配给的设计， 揭示了在这两种机制的作用下， 银行能有效鉴别出企业谎报风险信息的程度， 给出了银行拒绝企业贷款申请的条件．

信誉、财富与农村信贷配给——欠发达地区不同农村金融机构的供给行为研究

文章使用2006年云南、宁夏近800个农户家庭的调查数据,实证分析了欠发达地区不同农村金融机构的信贷供给行为。在区分农户的名义需求和有效需求的基础上,研究发现信用社和银行在发放贷款时偏向富有农户,民间借贷者没有这种偏向,因而其服务的覆盖面远远超过正式机构。两者都重视农户的信誉状况,但信用记录没有实现共享。这些行为的差异主要来源于各类金融机构之间信息成本和交易成本的差别。

保险能改善对农户的信贷配给吗?——来自822户农户调查的经验证据

针对保险能否支持农户融资的问题,基于2014年陕、苏二省822户农户的调查数据,采用四元Probit模型,在有效分离信贷、保险供需行为的前提下,对保险之于农户信贷供给的影响进行实证检验。结果显示,总体上保险的存在显著提高了农户获取正规信贷的能力,但与信贷损失挂钩的农作物保险相比其他类别的商业保险更能发挥作用;同时,陕西样本地区相比江苏样本地区保险对信贷的支持作用更加明显,而这一差异来源于陕西样本地区政策性的银保互联支持。研究为信贷保险互联的制度安排提供了进一步经验支持。着眼于缓解农户信贷配给,应当进一步支持构建多样化的信贷保险关联机制。

现实信贷市场中抵质押品的功能探析——基于信息经济学商业银行的研究视角

文章从信息经济学、信贷配给理论、风险管理理论和巴塞尔新资本协议等视角出发,论述了有关押品的性质、功能和角色,分析了押品发挥作用的基本原理和传导机制,形成了有关现实信贷市场中抵质押品功能的9条结论。最后,结合我国信贷市场发展实际,对商业银行加强押品管理提出了初步建议。

我国信贷配给区域间差异及市场分化模型

由于我国不同区域间发展极不平衡,其中比较突出的是农村和城市、东南沿海和中西部地区之间,导致了我国信贷市场区域分化。信贷市场区域分化越严重,银行越会忽视部分弱势地区,而把资金集中在部分发达地区。近年来我国信贷资金这种区域集中现象越来越明显,不同区域表现出了巨大的信贷差异。文章首先通过部分相关数据和信贷调查分析了我国信贷市场的区域分化,然后建立了信贷配给的区域分化模型,分析不同区域间信贷差异以及信贷集中。最后给出了相关的结论和建议。

基于LS-SVM的小微企业信用评估研究

构建并优化小微企业信用评估技术已经成为商业银行开展小微业务必然选择。基于小微企业内在特征,设计以小微企业现金流信息为违约触发机制的小微企业信用评估指标体系,构建最小二乘支持向量机模型(LSSVM),运用某国有控股银行的小微企业贷款微观数据证实该模型能够相对提高预测精确度和稳定性。应用LSSVM构建的小微企业信用评估指标体系以及评估模型有助于提升银行对小微企业的了解程度和小微业务风险管理能力,减轻信息不对称,在一定程度能够化解供给型信贷配给导致的小微企业融资难问题。

逆向选择与信用配给:中小企业融资难根源分析

文章通过中美中小企业融资的渠道和结构对比 ,分析中国中小企业融资困难的原因 ,并进一步通过两个模型解释资金借贷市场上的逆向选择问题和银行被迫采用的信用配给制度。

银行惜贷现象的博弈论解释

通过分析我国的投融资体制改革对银行及国有企业目标取向及行为机制的影响 ,并建立二者之间的不完全信息动态博弈模型。据此 ,为目前我国的银行“惜贷”现象寻求另一种可能的解释 ,并就各主要因素对银行借贷行为的影响机制进行了深入的分析。

面向中小企业信贷配给的经济分析

中小企业融资难是目前大家公认的问题,本文在信息不对称概念的基础上,首先分析了中小企业外部融资渠道,然后运用信贷配给理论对中小企业融资难问题进行了分析,最后提出了目前缓解中小企业信贷配给的政策建议。