Estimates of China’s Rural Surplus Labor and Its Structure from 2002 to 2010

This paper investigates the structural changes of China＇s rural surplus labor over time. According to our estimates, the number of agricultural surplus workers declined sharply by more than 90% between 2002 and 2010. During this period, explicit unemployment in rural areas increased by 70% to become the main form of surplus labor. Among rural surplus workers, the proportions of workers aged 40 and above, workers with primapy and lower education levels and female workers show a clear upward trend, reaching 72.3%, 48.11% and 56.99% respectively in 2010. These changes can explain the apparent paradox of concurrent surplus labor, rising wages and migrant worker shortage. These structural changes in the labor surplus makeup indicate that the Lewis Turning Point （L TP） has arrived.

Measurement of Surplus Labor in Viet Nam Agriculture

The large shift of surplus labor from agriculture to industry and services is seen in many countries around the world as well as in Vietnam in the process of industrialization and modernization of the country that has set questions about the sustainability of rural surplus labor： is there still a source of surplus labor in rural areas？ If so, how large is the source of surplus labor and how long it can be lasting？ These questions were hotly debated in the literature abroad. But in Vietnam there is very little or hardly exchanged opinions about the concepts and methods of measurement of surplus labor in general and surplus labor in agriculture in particular. This article refers to the measurement approach of surplus labor in agriculture in Vietnam.

Coupling Research on the Process of Transfer of Surplus Labor Forces and Scaling-up of Farmland

On the basis of giving an overview of efficiency research on transformation of land from fragmentation to scale economy, by using the concept of coupling in physics, this paper expounds the behavior basis of transfer of surplus rural labor forces in China and transformation of land from fragmentation to scaling up, and analyzes behaviors of all parties and equilibrium outcomes in the three stages concerning the transformation of agricultural land from fragmentation to scaling up as follows. At the first stage of coupling, after multitudinous rural surplus labor forces emerge, the farmers begin to go to city seeking jobs. In this period, the amalgamation of land management has not occurred and the single farmer's land has not yet concentrated. The total land area of single farmer has not yet increased and the total amount of farmers has not yet decreased. At the second stage of coupling, driven by living standards and income, multitudinous rural surplus labor forces begin to live in the city permanently in fact, and the scale management of rural land begins to arise. Foreign funded enterprises begin to enter agriculture, and the industrialization management of agriculture is equipped with the most fundamental conditions due to the occurrence of scaling up of land. At the third stage of coupling, the transfer of rural surplus labor forces basically ends. The property rights of agricultural land or the management forms also, in a large measure, concentrate. The obstacles to agricultural scaling-up management are solved fundamentally, and the income gap between urban areas and rural areas is narrowed. Urban-rural population migration is no longer the main form of China's population migration. This stage has not yet been realized in China and it is the future state of villages. Finally, through the two cases researched by the predecessors, we verify the research results of the preceding two stages, which provides reliable reference for transformation of China's agricultural land management, and policy formulation of transfer of surplus labor forces.

Analysis of Influential Factors on Agricultural Surplus Labor Professionalization During China's Economic Downturn

This paper contributed to the pool of studies about agricultural surplus labor in China, also acted as the root to the imminent settlement of the issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers. Using data from survey of agricultural surplus labor in 2012, which covered three provinces in northern, midwestem and southern parts of China, this paper analyzed the influential factors on agricultural surplus labor professionalization by adoption of a logistic regression model. It showed that agricultural surplus labor shortage could be explained by low-quality professionalization. It was a feasible and effective way to solve the issue of workforce shortage during economic downturn by improving agricultural surplus labor＇s professionalization.

Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor and Vocational Education

The paper introduces about the rural surplus labor transfer.According to the paper,the transfer of rural surplus labor in China presents such fundamental characteristics as randomness and non-thoroughness,scope and field constraint,and hysteretic nature of employment and industrial structure conversion.Besides,the causes of the difficulties in the transfer of rural surplus labor lie in the barriers from the system and policy,structural imbalance of industry and low quality of rural labor.The paper studies the correlation between the quality and the transfer of rural surplus labor FORCE in a systematical way from three aspects,which are the correlations between rural labor quality and the transfer difficulty & speed,the transfer scope & field and the employment stability & income after transfer respectively.Moreover,the paper carries out analysis of the special effects of vocational education on the transfer of rural surplus labor in China,which shows that vocational education is a help in the improvement of cultural qualities,labor skills and physical & mental health of rural labor.

Analysis on Problem of Rural Surplus Labor and Recommendations for Rural Labor Transfer

Based on the historical development of the problem of rural surplus labor in China,this paper explored its development path.It made an in-depth analysis of the obstacles in the process of rural labor transfer and put forward relevant recommendations,including strengthening the cultural knowledge and skills training of the rural surplus labor,improving the relevant systems after migrant workers enter cities,strengthening the protection of the legal rights and interests of migrant workers,and vigorously developing the rural labor transfer market.

Study on the Quantity and Age Structure of Rural Surplus Labor Force in China

Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migration of rural labor force was still far away from ＂Lewis turning point＂, and ＂mingong huang＂ （ shortage of peasant workforce） appearing in coastal areas could be explained with the location separation between the labor-intensive industries and rural labor force. It was a feasible and an effective way to push forward the transfer of labor-intensive industries from the east coast to central and Western China to absorb the abundant supply of rural labor force.

A Study on the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor in Nyingchi City

This paper studies the surplus labor transfer in Nyingchi City,obtains the first-hand information of the surplus labor transfer through the typical survey,and analyzes the current situation and characteristics of surplus labor transfer. From " transfer channel", " transfer industry" and " transfer space",this paper analyzes the factors affecting the transfer of local surplus farming and animal husbandry labor,discusses the obstacles to surplus farming and animal husbandry labor in Nyingchi City,and finally makes some recommendations for the transfer of rural surplus labor in Nyingchi City.

The Impact of Rural Electricity Supplier on Resettlement of Rural Surplus Labor Force and the Route Optimization

Based on the perspective of electricity supplier on the issues of Rural Surplus Labor resettlement, we analyzed China＇s rural electricity supplier development and resettlement of rural surplus labor issues and factors, proposed the impact of sluggish development of rural electricity suppliers on their resettlement of the rural surplus labor force, and made the following suggestions： to develop township enterprises, to strengthen the construction of small towns, to settlement surplus labor force on the post, to transfer the surplus labor, to increase farmers＇ income; to eliminate the urban-rural dual structure, to implement loose household registration management system, to increase education level, to improve the quality of farmers, to provide information and improve guidance to change disorderly transfer to the orderly transfer.

The relationship between rural surplus labor transfer,urbanization and income gap

Based on the time series data of Shandong province from 2001 to 2018,a VAR model consisting of three variables,namely,rural surplus labor transfer,urbanization and urban-rural income gap,was constructed,and the interaction among the three variables and their characteristics were empirically analyzed.The results show that urbanization and rural surplus labor transfer are Granger causation to each other,and there is a positive correlation between urban-rural income gap and rural surplus labor force in long-term equilibrium,while there is a negative correlation between urban-rural income gap and rural surplus labor force transfer.Therefore,it is necessary to fully recognize the relationship between the transfer of rural surplus labor,urbanization and urban-rural income gap,accelerate the urbanization construction,promote the rural surplus labor to gather in cities,and gradually narrow the urban-rural income gap.

Approaches and countermeasures of the transfer of rural surplus labors in China

The transfer of rural surplus labors concerns the development of agriculture and the national economy in China. On the pivotal period of transforming economy and society, whether the transfer can be accomplished successfully will play an important role in the social stabilization and the sustainable development of economy. In this paper, the authors bring out the characteristics and the main impediment of transfer. At the same time, countermeasures which are more effective have been put forward.

A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China

Using a counterfactual analysis approach, the present paper examines a host of conventional wisdoms relating to issues of farmer, the countryside and agriculture, which are believed to be all originated from the existence of mass surplus laborers in China. When analyzing various sources of statistics, evidence shows that there is no longer a large pool of surplus laborers in rural China as most people believe. Based on this counterfactual result, all related events, such as the direction of agricultural technological changes, the level of comparative productivity of agricultural labor, and the degree of rural-urban income gap must be reconsidered.

Demand,Supply and Surplus of Agricultural Labor Force in China

China's economy enjoys the prominent characteristics of a dual structure,with a severe surplus in the agricultural labor force.Scholars in China and overseas have conducted extensive research on the issue of labor surplus and have developed estimates on the size and percentage of surplus labor.The results,however,vary considerably due to the differences in methods and data sources.Based on existing research and using the National Agricultural Costs and Returns Compilation as the data source,this paper proposes that the size of the agricultural surplus labor force is only 8,520,000 persons,accounting for 2.1% of the total rural labor force.

How Much Surplus Labor Is in the Countryside?

The long-held belief of an inexhaustible surplus of labor in rural areas of China is fading fast.Amid worries over its aging popula- tion,China is confronted with serious challenges to sustain its labor supply so as to shore up its growing economy.How to fur- ther transfer the remaining surplus labor into cities and how to improve the quality of Chinese laborers are questions the country faces.The Guangming Daily,a newspaper based in Beijing,con- ducted an interview with Cai Fang,an economist and Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,to delve into China’s labor dilemma.Cai gave his opinions in the following excerpts:

Tas the Lewisian Turning Point Arrived in China？- An Empirical Study of China＇s Dual Economy Transition in Labor Market Based on Data of 284 Cities

Labor shortage and the rise of wages in China have generated heated debate on the arrival of the Lewisian Turning Point. Based on an empirical study of macroeconomic data for 284 prefecture-level cities, this paper argues that the dual economy transition in China involves the coexistence of urbanization, industrialization and open economy. However, China has not yet arrived at the Lewisian Turning Point, because wage gaps between different industries and regions still exist and surplus labor is still being attracted to the labor-intensive manufacturing and tertiary industries in the eastern provinces. External economic shock and the mismatch between industrialization and urbanization are the primary causes of the coexistence of labor surplus and labor shortage.

Solution to the Dilemma of the Migrant Labor Shortage and the Rural Labor Surplus in China

Since 2003, China＇s labor market has been facing two coexisting crises： a rural labor surplus and a severe shortage of migrant labor Using data from the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey questionnaire, which covers 288 villages in 36 counties, this paper attempts to find a solution to this dilemma. Specifically, a multinomial logit model, a Mincer- type model and a probit model are applied to examine the effect of educational level on the employment choices for rural laborers, and on the wages and the employment status of migrants. Based on the results of our analysis, we propose the implementation of policy aimed at increasing the educational level of rural dwellers, in conjunction with other policies to eliminate all artificial barriers, to facilitate the migration of rural laborers.

Cultivating New-type Farmers Based on the Theory of Human Resources Development

Under the direction of theory of human resources development,this thesis analyzes the impact of rural human resources development oncultivating new-type farmers.Firstly,it increases the input of rural basic education;secondly,it reinforces the vocational education and technologytraining;thirdly,it promotes the rural medical and public health services;fourthly,it quickens the rural labor transfer.The status quo of China's ruralhuman resources has been analyzed as follows:in terms of the quantity of rural human resources,the status quo is large and quick-developed baseof rural human resources,high labor participatory rate,and constitution of low age;in terms of the quality of rural human resources,the status quois the ubiquitous low quality of rural human resources,low technological level of rural human resources,and overall low physical quality of farmers;in terms of the structure of rural human resources,the status quo is the irrational industrial structure distribution and imbalanced regional structuredistribution.The thesis also discusses the edification of theory of human resources development in cultivating new-type farmers.First,in terms ofthe control over quantity of rural human resources,it is to keep the stability of family planning policy,and expedite the transfer of rural surplus la-bor;second,in terms of promoting the quality of rural human resources,it is to bolster the development of reserve rural labor force resources,toconstruct the adult educational training system with Chinese characteristics,and to build rural primary health care system;third,in terms of adjus-ting the structure of rural human resources,it is to perfect rural human resources market,and adjust rural economical structure and talents struc-ture.

Insufficient Labor Supply and Wage Rises under Conditions of Labor Surplus:From the Perspective of the Intra-household Division of Labo

On the basis of Becker＇s family economics and the theory of time allocation, it can be shown that labor supply under labor surplus conditions is not unlimited. Under the constraints of intra-household labor division, the supply curve takes on a special staircase form： as labor supply increases, the reservation wage of rural labor rises by an ever larger margin. The response of labor supply to wages is discontinuous. Labor supply will increase only when wages reach the new level of the reservation wage; otherwise, wage increases do not lead to an increase in labor supply. Corresponding to this special form of supply, the major driving force behind wage increases becomes industrial labor demand rather than agricultural income. The data from a survey of about 1,500 rural households in Gansu and Inner Mongolia bear out the above proposition. When labor demand rises, slight wage adjustments will not bring a corresponding increase in labor supply and labor market clearing will not occur for a long time. This reminds us that the present coexistence of a shortage of labor with wage rises for migrant workers may well derive from insufficient labor supply under labor surplus conditions. It does not necessarily imply the exhaustion of the labor surplus and cannot serve to prove the arrival of the Lewis turning point.

Link Between Trade Surplus and Labor

The past four years have seen China’s trade surplus soar. It accounted for 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2006.Indications are that this will exceed 10 percent in 2007.Given the swelling trade surplus and its rising proportion to the GDP,many people conclude that China’s economy is seriously imbalanced.Li Yang,Director of the Institute of Finance and Banking,the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,recently shared his views on the issue in an article in Wen Hui Bao,a Shanghai-based newspaper.

Overemployment,executive pay-for-performance sensitivity and economic consequences:Evidence from China

Using a sample of state-owned enterprises(SOEs) listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during the 1999-2009 period,we investigate the effects of overemployment on executives' pay-for-performance sensitivity(PPS) and analyze how the behavior of firms with high/low PPS affects the number of surplus employees.We find the existence of a redundant workforce significantly weakens PPS and the role of accounting measures in performance assessment.In contrast to prior literature,we find that higher PPS is associated with a stronger incentive to lay off redundant employees and to limit future employee numbers.We also find that weaker government intervention strengthens managerial control over the future size of the workforce.Finally,our findings suggest that a heavier government policy burden on SOEs leads to lower tax rates and more government gains.