Interaction between Planetary-Scale Diffluent Flow and Synoptic-Scale Waves During the Life Cycle of Blocking

In this paper, a new transient forced quasi-resonant triad interaction theory in a beta channel is proposed to investigate the interaction between planetary-scale diffluent flow composed of zonal wavenumbers 1-3 and synoptic-scale waves produced continuously by a synoptic-scale vorticity source fixed upstream of an incipient blocking region during the life cycle of blocking. It is shown that the superposition of initial three Rossby waves for zonal wavenumbers 1 （monopole）, 2 （dipole）, and 3 （monopole）, which permit triad quasi-resonance, can represent an incipient blocking event. The synoptic-scale eddies may act to amplify the incipient blocking and to excite a blocking circulation with a strong meander, whose flow pattern depends on the initial amplitudes of the planetary waves and both the intensity and location of preexisting synoptic-scale waves. The onset （decay） of the planetary-scale split-flow blocking is mainly represented by a strong increase （decrease） in the amplitude of the zonal wavenumber 2 component, having a dipole meridional structure related to the preexisting synoptic-scale eddies. The typical persistence time of the model blocking was of about 20 days, consistent with observations of blocking patterns. In our model, isolated asymmetric dipole blocking is formed by synoptic-scale waves. The instantaneous fields of total streamfunctions exhibit a remarkable resemblance to the synoptic maps observed during the life cycle of blocking. During the onset stage, the synoptic-scale waves are enhanced and split into two branches around the blocking region due to the feedback of the amplified blocking, in agreement with the observed changes of synoptic-scale waves in real blocking events. In addition, a diagnostic case study of blocking is presented to confirm the forced quasi-resonant triad interaction theory proposed here.

FGOALS-s2 Simulation of Upper-level Jet Streams over East Asia: Mean State Bias and Synoptic-scale Transient Eddy Activity

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activ- ity （STEA）. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient （MTG）, the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction （NCEP）/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data （NCEP2）. Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Sub- tropical Jet （EASJ） and the East Asian Polar-front Jet （EAPJ）. The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux （E） and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

Synoptic-scale disturbances over the northern South China Sea and their responses to El Nio

Using surface and aerological meteorological observations obtained at the Xisha Automatic Weather Station and three moored buoys along the continental slope, characteristics of the synoptic-scale disturbances over the northern South China Sea （NSCS） are extensively studied. The power spectra of surface and aerological observations suggest a synoptic feature with a pronounced energy peak at a period of 5–8 d and a weak peak at 3–4 d. The standard deviation of the synoptic temperature component derived at Xisha Station from 1976 to 2011 indicates that the strongest variability normally exists in August all through the whole troposphere. At the interannual scale, it is found that El Nin o plays an important role in regulating the synoptic disturbances of atmosphere. The vertical synoptic disturbances have a double active peak following El Nin o condition. The first peak usually occurs during the mature phase of El Nin o, and the second one occurs in the summer of decay year. Comparing with the summer of developing years, the summer of the decaying year of El Nin o has more active and stronger synoptic disturbances, especially for the 5–8 d period variations.

A Climatological Perspective on Extratropical Synoptic-Scale Transient Eddy Activity Response to Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

An observational study focusing on the contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)that form over the western North Pacific(WNP)to the synoptic-scale transient eddy activity(STEA)over the North Pacific during the boreal autumn and early winter in the period 1979–2019 is presented in this paper.Statistical results show that WNP TCs entering the midlatitudinal North Pacific provide significant positive effects on the pentad mean strength of STEA,which is primarily concentrated over the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extensions(KOE)and regions from east of Japan to 160°W in the lower and midto-upper troposphere,respectively.TC intensity is highly indicative of the subsequent STEA with a correlation coefficient of 0.37/0.33/0.45 at 300 hPa/500 hPa/850 hPa exceeding the 99%confidence level for the period 1979–2019.The strength of STEA in the upper troposphere associated with TCs presents a more significant linear growth with TC intensity than that at the mid-to-lower levels after the cyclones enter the KOE region,suggesting that the impact of TCs on STEA gradually increases with height.Further analyses reveal that the contribution of TCs accounts for 4%–6%of the total STEA change over the KOE region during the late autumn and early winter.In addition,the influence of TCs on STEA experienced an interdecadal decrease from the early 2000 s through the early 2010 s.

LOW-DEFORMATION VORTICITY AREAS IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE DISTURBANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS：AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

It has long been known that incipient tropical cyclones(TCs) always occur in synoptic-scale disturbances or tropical cyclogenesis precursors, and the disturbances can intensify only within a limited area during tropical cyclogenesis. An observational analysis of five tropical cyclogenesis events over the western North Pacific during 11 August to 10 September 2004 is conducted to demonstrate the role of synoptic-scale disturbances in establishing a limited area of low-deformation vorticity for tropical cyclogenesis.The analysis of the five tropical cyclogenesis events shows that synoptic-scale tropical cyclogenesis precursors provide a region of low-deformation vorticity, which is measured with large positive values of the Okubo-Weiss(OW) parameter.The OW concentrated areas are within the tropical cyclogenesis precursors with a radius of about 400-500 km and can be found as early as 72 hours prior to the formation of the tropical depression. When the TCs reached the tropical storm intensity, the concentrated OW is confined to an area of 200-300 radius and the storm centers are coincident with the centers of the maximum OW. This study indicates that the tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the low-deformation 18-72 hours prior to the formation of tropical depressions, suggesting the importance of low-deformation vorticity in pre-existent synoptic-scale disturbances. Although the Rossby radius of deformation is reduced in TC genesis precedes,the reduction does not sufficiently make effective conversion of convective heating into kinetic energy within the low-deformation area. Further analysis indicates that the initial development of four of the five disturbances is coupled with the counterclockwise circulation of the mixed Rossby-Gravity(MRG) wave.

A comparison study of summer-time synoptic-scale waves in South China and the Yangtze River basin using the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis daily product

Summer-time synoptic-scale waves in South China and the Yangtze River basin are quantified and compared by means of analyzing the 6-year (1998―2004) TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) daily product. An innovative 3-dimensional spectrum analysis method is applied. The results indicate that synoptic-scale waves appearing in South China prominently propagate westward within a zonal wavenumber range of 9―21 and a frequency range of-0.12―-0.22 cycles day-1, while those in the Yangtze River basin primarily move eastward with the same characteristic wavenumbers of 9―21, but within a frequency range of 0.2―0.29 cycles day?1. Zonal and meridional distributions, and seasonal variations of these waves are further explored and compared. It shows that summer-time synoptic-scale waves in the South China result from the northward migration and oscillation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the western Pacific, whereas the ones in the Yangtze River basin are generally related to the synoptic troughs within the westerly flow, originating from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The Henan extreme rainfall in July 2021: Modulation of the northward-shift monsoon trough on the synoptic-scale wave train

The synoptic-scale wave train is a dominant pattern of the synoptic variability over the tropical western Pacific and usually affects the extreme weather over South China and Southeast Asia.Whether it could extend its influence and contribute to the Henan extreme rainfall in July 2021 still needs to be unraveled.We found that during the Henan extreme rainfall days a positively synoptic-scale vorticity disturbance dominated Henan province,China,which was embedded in the synoptic-scale wave train that originated from the western North Pacific.Moreover,the propagating pathway of this synoptic-scale wave train located northward and was likely modulated by the latitudinal location change of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific.A northernmost displacement of the monsoon trough in July 2021(∼23.2°N)would facilitate the synoptic-scale wave train to propagate farther northwestward via shifting the related barotropic conversion northward.Therefore,the synoptic-scale wave train from the tropics could reach Henan,provide the necessary lifting forcing,and supply abundant water vapor associated with the anomalous southerly for the occurrence of Henan extreme rainfall event.The results implicate that the pre-existing synoptic-scale wave train regulated by the location of the monsoon trough may be a potential precursor for heavy rainfalls in northern Central China.

Formation of Low-Level Jets over Southern China in the Mei-yu Season

This study examines the diversity of low-level jet(LLJ)formation and related physical processes over southern China.A total of 171 LLJ formation events with enhanced daily southwesterlies and early-morning maximum wind speeds were observed during the mei-yu seasons of 1989–2018.The LLJs can be further categorized into four types based on the increases in the daily mean and diurnal amplitude of the low-level winds.Analysis of the synoptic-scale disturbances shows that the two types of LLJ formation(Q1 and Q4),which feature large increases of daily southerly wind components,are mainly induced by west-east dipole patterns of pressure change,in association with the enhanced southwest vortex and/or the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).In contrast,the other two types(Q2 and Q3),which feature relatively large increases in their daily westerly components,are related to a northwest-southeast dipole pattern of pressure change due to the mid-latitude trough and the WPSH.We further analyze the considerable variations in the diurnal thermal forcing among the LLJ formation events.The strong(weak)daytime heating of solar radiation leads to relatively large(small)increases in the diurnal amplitude of low-level winds in Q1 and Q2(Q3 and Q4)types.Therefore,different combinations of synopticscale disturbances and diurnal thermal forcings are found to account for the diversity in LLJ formation and associated differences in downstream rainfall patterns.These results help to improve our understanding and prediction of the formation of LLJs.

The Climate Change Impact on Russia’s Wind Energy Resource: Current Areas of Research

Exploration of the climate change impact on wind energy is a focus of scientific analysis and research in many countries around the world. Previous studies have demonstrated that over the last three decades measured wind in the boundary and surface layer of the atmosphere has changed all over the globe. However, effects of climate change on the wind energy sector of Russia are not well explored. Therefore, the Russian climate change research needs to focus on improving the analysis and prediction of wind characteristics that are most relevant to Russia’s wind energy development. This paper analyzes the effects of global climate change on the patterns of the general circulation of the atmosphere, large-scale atmospheric temperature field and dynamics, as well as wind speed in the planetary boundary layer and, in particular, in the atmospheric surface layer, with regards to Russia’s geographical location and its climatic characteristics. This paper also explores and discusses current areas of climate change research relevant for estimating the wind energy potential in Russia. Two areas of research are emphasized: study of the impact of global warming on poleward shifts of the large-scale synoptic eddies which strongly affect the weather patterns and wind field over large territories;and the study of the effects of ice melting in Arctic seas which significantly alter the properties of the underlying surface and, thus, speed and direction of wind in the surface layer.

Diagnostic Comparison of Wintertime East Asian Subtropical Jet and Polar-Front Jet: Large-Scale Characteristics and Transient Eddy Activities

Diagnostic comparison of the East Asian subtropical jet （EASJ） and polar-front jet （EAPJ） in winter season is carried out by using the ERA-40 dataset. The large-scale circulation characteristics and synopticscale transient eddy activities （STEAs） associated with the EASJ and EAPJ are examined. The results show that the EASJ and EAPJ in the upper-level monthly mean data have no clear geographical border, while the distribution of the numbers of jet cores from the daily data exhibits a distinct boundary at the latitudes of the northern Tibetan Plateau. The two areas with large numbers of jet cores correspond to the EASJ and EAPJ regions. The analysis of STEAs over the East Asian region shows a spatial match of STEAs with the EASJ and EAPJ in winter： the strong EASJ is located within the weak southern branch of the STEA while the relatively weak EAPJ appears within the active northern branch of the STEA, indicating that the EAPJ is the jet coexisting with the STEA. Further analysis shows two anomalous modes of the winter EAPJ： the anomalous anticyclonic/cyclonic circulation and the weakened/strengthened local westerly wind. The large-scale circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere related to the first mode are concentrated in the Eurasian mid to high latitudes, and are also influenced by the anomalous circulation in the upstream area. When the local westerly wind over the EAPJ region is weakened/strengthened, the westerly jet in the eastern part of the EASJ and that in the western Pacific region show opposite variations. The corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation demonstrates the Eurasian （EU） pattern. The EAPJ anomalies are also closely linked with the STEA anomalies over East Asia. The anomalies in the northern branch of the STEA propagate as a wave train along its axis into the East Asian coastal waters, and then migrate eastward to the oceanic region. However, the ones near the southern branch are trapped over the eastern part of East Asia and its coastal waters at 200 hPa.