Effects of Industrial Relocation on Chinese Regional Economic Growth Disparities: Based on System Dynamics Modeling

The economic growth of China has led to increasing growth disparities between regions. Such disparities are uncontrolled and are severely negative symptoms in the process of economic development. On the basis of system dynamics(SD) modeling and the relationship between industrial relocation and regional economic growth, we construct a model of the interrelationship between the two aforementioned phenomena. The model is an effective and creative exploration for examining effects of industrial relocation on Chinese regional economic growth disparities. The SD model is employed in this study to build an inter-regional labor migration SD model, an inter-regional capital migration SD model, an intra-industry SD model, an intra-regional population SD model, and an intra-regional SD model which are based on realities in labor and capital flow from the view of industrial relocation. VENSIM software is utilized to perform a system simulation based on the data of the eastern, middle, and western regions from 2000 to 2010. Results show that industrial relocation gradually narrows the relative disparity in GDP among the three regions. Moreover, the absolute one is enlarged continuously. The absolute and relative disparities in per capita GDP among eastern, middle, and western regions generally exhibit decreasing trends.

THE TURNPIKE IN DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS FOR STATE－CONTINGENT CAPITAL STOCKS

A stochastic economic growth model may be transformed into a deterministic economic growth model with an infiaite dimentional Banach space of state-contingent capital stocks [6]. This paper proves that under the framework, the stochastic analogUes of the asymptotic turnpike theorems in the standard deterministic economic growth model [5] will continue tO hold if we assume that essentially smooth programs satisfy uniformly essentially dominant diagonal condition.

The Chinese Urban-rural Dual Economic Structure Model and Analysis

Based on the characteristics of urban-rural dual economic structure in China,we build a dynamic endogenous urban-rural dual economic model closely linked to China's reality,and carry out mathematical economics analysis of optimized conditions for urban and rural sectors. The main results show that:(i) The labor growth rate of urban-rural sectors must be greater than the time discount rate,or else there would be a vicious cycle of diminishing returns in the sectors;(ii) The accumulation rate of physical capital and human capital of urban-rural sectors,and the rate of technological progress,need to be greater than the corresponding depreciation rate plus the time discount rate,otherwise there would be a vicious cycle of diminishing returns in the sectors;(iii) The low accumulation rate in the rural sector,and the occurrence of labor outflow,human capital loss and lack of investment,will expand income gap between urban and rural areas,which is a reason for solidification of urban-rural dual economic structure.

Research on the Digital Economy's Impact on China's Economic Growth:Based on the Variations in Urbanization Levels Across China's Eastern,Central,and Western Regions and Sectoral Heterogeneity

This paper uses inter-provincial panel data from 2011 to 2017,a linear regression model,and a threshold model to conduct empirical analyses of the impact of the digital economy on China's overall economic growth and the three main sectors of industry.The paper then investigates the impact and effects the digital economy has had on the economic growth of the three main sectors of industry in China's eastern,central,and western regions.Finally,the paper investigates the most significant differences among the various regions and the threshold effects of urbanization levels on the relationship between the digital economy and economic growth.The findings indicate a significantly positive correlation between the digital economy and regional economic growth.Moreover,geographical factors notably influence this correlation.The digital economy exerts a positive effect on all sectors of industry.It may not substantially impact industrial development in regions with highly developed infrastructure.Regarding the other regions,the digital economy exhibits varying degrees of impact due to the differences in the specific indicators.The conclusion drawn by the threshold model is that the magnitude of the threshold effect correlates with geographic factors.No threshold effect was observed in the eastern region,while the threshold effect occurred in the central region when the urbanization levels for the provinces were below 0.6645.Similarly,the threshold effect was noted in the western region when the urbanization level was below 0.3931.Considering all of this,the study also offers policy recommendations that will help balance the regional development of digital economies,accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries,enhance digital infrastructure construction,refine the formulation and implementation of data policy,and establish relevant incentive mechanisms.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Input and Output of Scientific Progress on Regional Economic Growth: The Case of Guangdong Province

This paper makes an empirical analysis of the spatial spillover effect of regional economic growth by using Moran’s I and Spatial Durbin Model to study the input and output of technological progress, with the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the spatial autocorrelation exists in the economic development of Guangdong Province, and both the input and output of scientific research innovation have a significant positive effect on the regional economic growth. Under the spatial contiguity weights matrix, the output of scientific research and innovation has a more obvious spillover effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities than the input of scientific research and innovation.

数字经济发展协同推进增长降碳的动态效应研究

构建居民、厂商(包含数字经济厂商)、政府3部门DSGE模型,重点研究数字基础设施、数字产业化、产业数字化等随机冲击协同推进增长降碳的动态效应及其传导机制。研究发现:数字基础设施、数字产业化、产业数字化3类数字经济随机技术冲击能够有效促进经济增长并减缓碳排放总量和碳排放强度;数字经济投资冲击能够显著减缓碳排放总量和碳排放强度,对数字经济产出和经济增长也有正向促进作用;数字经济对新型基础设施投资推动效应越强,所引致的环境经济效果越佳;数字经济结构调整能够显著推进数字经济产出和碳减排。整体来看,数字经济随机技术冲击、数字经济投资冲击、数字经济结构调整等不同政策呈现出增长降碳协同效应。

数字经济对区域经济增长收敛的影响研究

共享型经济的发展对落后地区经济增长和推动共同富裕具有重大意义。本文以2013~2022年长江经济带的110个城市为研究样本,将数字经济纳入空间杜宾模型分析框架,实证考察数字经济对区域经济增长收敛的影响。研究发现:(1)长江经济带城市的经济增长总体上呈明显的收敛态势,数字经济的发展能够显著促进经济增长收敛,且这一结论在替换空间权重矩阵及解释变量后依然成立;(2)长江经济带城市经济增长的收敛性存在一定的空间溢出效应,且数字经济对经济增长收敛的促进作用也存在明显的空间溢出效应;(3)从空间维度来看,数字经济对经济增长收敛的促进作用在长江经济带上游城市影响最大,中游城市次之,下游城市最小;(4)从时间维度来看,2013~2022年期间长江经济带的收敛速度呈现逐步增长的趋势,且数字经济对经济增长收敛的影响具有明显的缓冲期,2016年以后其促进作用才显现出来。

Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth?——With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure

Taking full account of the synergistic effects of multidimensional factors on regional economic growth in China, this paper constructs a model of the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth. Using provincial panel data from 1993 to 2009 and employing spatial econometric techniques, our empirical analysis comes to the following conclusions. （1） The total output elasticity of transport infrastructure for regional economic growth varies between 0.05 and 0.07, indicating its important role in such growth. （2） Transport infrastructure has very clear spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth; its role in regional economic growth will be overestimated if these are neglected. （3） For a specific region, transport infrastructure in other regions has mainly positive spillover effects on economic growth, but there is also evidence of negative spillover effects. （4） Among multidimensional factors contributing to regional economic growth, labor pluscapital stock from other parts of the public sector make the greatest contribution to regional economic growth in China, followed by the new economic growth factors and new economic geography.

旅游发展影响经济增长的动态新型城镇化门限效应

将新型城镇化纳入旅游业导向型经济增长研究框架,能够有效拓展对经济增长决定因素的认识视域。文章在量化测度旅游业与新型城镇化综合指数基础上,基于中国2004—2019年省际面板数据,通过构建能够捕捉非线性不对称动态因素的面板门限回归模型,并使用允许门限变量和解释变量同时内生的一阶差分矩估计法,实证检验旅游业对经济增长的新型城镇化门限效应。结果表明,中国旅游业与经济增长之间因新型城镇化水平不同而呈现具有显著双重门限特征的非线性关系,并且旅游业对经济增长的影响随新型城镇化跨越门限值而具备边际效用递增特性。因此,文章认为,增进旅游业与新型城镇化耦合协同,充分发挥新型城镇化在旅游业影响经济增长过程中的渠道作用,能够显著提升旅游业的经济增长效应。

区域金融服务能力对中国经济增长的影响效应研究

以金融资源、金融效率和金融生态三个维度构建中国省级区域金融服务能力评价指标体系,测算结果表明:2003-2020年中国区域金融服务能力呈现明显上升趋势,东、中、西部地区与全国变化趋势基本一致,东部各省份的金融服务能力整体上高于中部、西部省份。选定的基准模型估计结果表明:2003-2020年区域金融服务能力对中国经济增长存在显著促进作用;三大地区子样本情形的分析也表明区域金融服务能力对其经济增长均存在显著促进作用;两类经济发展水平地区子样本分析表明:相对发达地区金融服务能力对其经济增长的促进作用更为明显,而欠发达地区这种促进作用相对较弱。全国样本情形下的修正模型估计结果表明:当经济系统遭受外生冲击影响时,区域金融服务能力对经济增长仍存在正向促进作用,但提升区域金融服务能力则对中国经济波动存在一定的反向抑制效应。进一步讨论表明:在全国样本和两类经济发展水平地区子样本情形下,区域金融服务能力对经济增长的贡献率基本上呈现出先波动变化再稳定上升的趋势;相较于增加金融资源而言,提高金融效率或改善金融生态手段在抑制外生冲击、平滑经济波动方面更为有效。优化金融生态环境和区域金融布局将为中国经济发展提供进一步支持。

入境旅游对我国区域经济增长的异质作用分析——基于31省市面板数据

文章利用2005—2019年我国31个省市的面板数据,建立双向固定效应模型对数据进行回归分析,探讨入境旅游对我国区域经济的影响,并通过ArcGIS可视化技术分析入境旅游对不同区域经济增长的异质效果。结果表明:入境旅游对区域经济增长具有显著的积极意义;东、中部入境旅游发展水平对经济增长的促进效应较西部明显;在具有丰富旅游资源的省市,入境旅游对经济的带动作用更强。本文从入境旅游对经济的带动效应、异质性和面临的宏观环境三个方面提出相关对策建议,以期推动我国入境旅游的健康发展。

RCEP实施对中国重点商品贸易及产业安全的影响

区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)的实施将对中国外贸及产业安全产生重要影响。根据海关总署对进出口重点商品的划分,总结2000—2021年中国重点商品的贸易发展状况,基于贸易视角构建产业安全测度体系,运用动态递归GTAP模型模拟分析RCEP实施对中国重点商品贸易及产业安全的影响。研究发现:中国重点商品进出口额呈现快速增长态势,RCEP关税与非关税措施削减将促进中国各类重点商品贸易额显著增长,其贸易创造效应远大于贸易转移效应,RCEP实施将提高中国重点产业安全水平。中国企业应充分利用RCEP条款,重视非关税因素变动的影响,扩大重点商品出口,以建设RCEP等高标准自由贸易区为契机,提高我国重点产业链供应链安全水平。

低碳技术创新、区域经济发展对汽车业碳排放的影响机制研究

为了探究低碳技术创新、经济发展对汽车业碳排放的影响,基于我国新能源汽车较为普及的7个省市2013—2020年的数据,采用静态面板模型和动态面板模型,细致分析低碳技术创新、区域经济发展对汽车业碳排放量的影响,并通过分样本回归检验低碳技术创新、经济发展对燃油车碳排放和新能源车碳排放的异质性影响。研究表明:低碳技术创新对汽车业碳排放量有显著负向影响,区域经济发展对汽车业碳排放量有显著正向影响;汽车业碳排放具有延续性特征,受前期排放量的影响较大;低碳技术水平的进步可以更有效地促进燃油车的碳减排,而经济发展水平的提高则会更显著影响新能源汽车的碳减排。

我国区域经济增长差异与收敛的时空演进特征

文章基于动态演进视角,运用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计法考察我国区域经济增长差异与收敛特征,从动态共同相关效应视角分析条件收敛的影响因素。结果表明:我国区域经济增长的总体基尼系数呈波动下降趋势。东、中、西和东北四大板块基尼系数变化趋势与我国区域经济增长总体基尼系数变化趋势一致。四大板块的区域间差异是引起我国区域经济增长差异的主要原因。东部地区经济分化是引起绝对差距扩大的主要原因。我国区域经济增长存在条件收敛,人力资本存量和物质资本存量是促进区域经济增长条件收敛的主要因素。

西部地区城市群空间结构调整的经济增长效应:基于动态空间计量模型的检验

城市群已成为中国西部地区经济发展的重要增长极与核心区,其合理有序的空间结构是经济增长的重要源泉。文章基于西部地区八大城市群2004—2020年面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型检验西部地区城市群空间结构调整对经济增长的作用效果与作用机制。研究发现:西部地区城市群的人口、产业和土地利用空间结构调整主要表现为空间集聚并显著促进了城市群经济增长;进一步的检验发现,这三类空间结构集聚对经济增长的促进作用在不断增强,且由短期促进演变为短期促进与长期促进并存。在影响机制方面,西部地区城市群人口空间集聚因加重环境污染而抑制了经济增长,但抑制作用明显弱于正向促进作用;产业空间集聚通过促进技术进步推动了经济增长;土地利用空间集聚通过加快产业结构升级促进了经济增长。最后,文章提出了提升城市群中心城市人口承载能力、提高城市群第二产业和第三产业空间集聚度、提高建设用地空间集聚度等政策建议。

广西农业经济增长的时空特征与影响因素研究——基于96个县域面板数据的空间计量分析

探究县域农业经济增长的空间特征及其影响因素,对促进广西县域经济协调发展意义重大。基于广西96个县域的面板数据,采用ESDA分析法分析广西农业经济增长的时空演变特征,构建空间杜宾模型深入剖析广西农业经济增长的影响因素及其空间效应,并分区域考察各影响因素对农业经济增长的贡献差异。结果表明:广西县域农业经济增长整体表现出较强的空间相关性,局部空间关联存在明显的“高—高”和“低—低”空间集聚特征;各投入要素对农业经济增长的影响存在较大差异,且空间效应以正向为主,土地、农业技术和政府资本等要素投入每增加1%,将分别带来农业经济增长水平提高0.706%、0.994%、0.108%;广西5大内部区域农业经济增长的主要影响因素及其影响程度存在明显差异,空间效应也存在明显的区域差异。基于研究结论得出政策启示:加强相邻县域之间农业发展的区域协同性,并努力缩减县域之间农业经济增长差距;各内部区域应有针对性地提升农业投入水平,遵循相对比较优势原则,通过增加农业要素投入促进农业经济增长。

计及区域建筑群生长特性的动态冷热负荷预测

考虑区域建筑群的动态生长特性,结合负荷计算理论、灰色Verhulst模型及等维新息灰色理论,采用MATLAB构建完整的区域动态冷热负荷预测方法,以常州高铁新城2017—2022年的建筑面积为历史数据,对区域未来10年的冷热负荷进行预测.结果表明,采用基于等维新息灰色理论的Verhulst灰色模型建立的3种业态面积预测方程拟合精度均达到一级.高铁新城未来10年冷热负荷先快速增长后缓慢增长直至饱和,达到饱和的时间约为2030年,冷、热负荷饱和规模分别为436、228 MW,与采用面积指标法的计算结果(冷负荷为472 MW、热负荷为285 MW)相比,分别降低了约7.52%、19.86%.

最优开采路径下我国铜矿资源经济价值评估:基于需求增长和生态补偿双重视角

需求增长和生态补偿对矿产资源经济价值的影响不容忽视,而传统评估模型无法有效地将这些外生因素考虑进来,这可能会导致评估结果偏误。为弥补这一缺陷,本文通过耦合矿产资源开发Hotelling模型和传统折现现金流模型构建了一个动态折现现金流模型,采用该模型从需求增长和生态补偿双重视角出发对我国铜矿资源经济价值展开评估,进一步深入探索了其对经济价值的具体影响。研究结果发现由于动态折现现金流模型遵循着资源最优开采路径,其评估价值略高于传统评估模型;生态补偿机制更有利于资源的可持续开发利用,但降低了资源的经济价值;考虑需求增长后我国铜矿资源最优开采路径呈“倒U型”,并提高了其经济价值;综合来看,需求增长带来的价值增加远大于生态补偿机制造成的价值减少。本文研究不仅丰富了矿产资源经济价值评估理论和方法,还为我国铜矿资源的合理开发利用提供了参考。

基于空间溢出的陕西区域经济高质量增长研究

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