Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System （DSS）. The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers＇ income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

CGE Simulation for Levying Carbon Tax in China and International Experience of Levying Carbon Tax

Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.

CGE与GIS集成的中国城市增长情景模拟框架研究

建立机理和空间明确的城市模拟模型,对刻画我国城市未来情景、推演城市增长的环境影响、解释城市增长复杂性具有重要意义。现有的城市模拟模型偏重于对单个城市或城市区域进行模拟,大多缺乏可靠的经济学基础。通过有效集成CGE模型、GIS空间分析和格网动力学模型,采用多区域可计算一般均衡模型将分散的城市模拟模型连接成为相互作用的“城市模型体系”,提出一个经济机理和地理参考明确的、多维度、多尺度、可运行的中国城市未来模拟模型框架,阐述其假设、逻辑、主要内容与关键技术。

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型及其建模仿真、发展和应用

简单介绍了经济系统的一个仿真模型，可计算一般均衡（ＣＧＥ）模型；讨论了其应用与发展，介绍了其仿真求解技术与新的发展方向。

土地利用政策仿真模拟框架构建——基于两类模型的对比分析

土地政策是土地利用优化管理的重要手段。土地优化利用蕴含丰富的人类活动信息,可以通过改变生态系统类型及生态过程影响生态系统服务功能,进而影响人类福祉。本研究在界定土地利用政策模拟内涵的基础上,从复杂政策行为表现中厘清土地利用、生态系统服务功能和人类福祉之间的传动机制,分别构建基于系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型和可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型框架,解析生态系统服务功能和人类福祉在不同土地利用优化政策下的变化问题,及其政策变化所带来的直接或间接影响。最后从研究尺度、数据依赖性和预测功能等方面系统对比两类模型在土地利用优化政策模拟中的优缺点和适用条件。研究成果可为土地利用政策制定和实施提供参考,降低土地利用相关政策制定存在的风险、降低损失。

Simulated Scenarios for China＇s Economic Growth： 2011-2030

Considering domestic and international impact on economic growth, this paper adopts a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to simulate three scenarios for China＇s economic growth. Results indicate that during the 12^th Five-year Plan period （2011：2015）, China＇s economic growth is expected to reach 8 per cent and enjoy great potential for rapid growth in the mid- and long-term run. Future economic growth is mainly confronted by the risk of unbalanced economic development and growing resources and environmental pressures. Whether this potential is in transforming its development pattern. tapped depends on China＇s achievements

全球多区域CGE模型的构建及其3E扩展

全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium,CGE)是最重要的全球气候政策评估工具之一。该文给出了自主开发的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(global applied general equilibrium model,GAGE)的理论框架,描述了区域内框架的地区账户收入分配方案和生产模块的嵌套结构以及区域间框架的国际贸易结构和2个虚拟国际机构的构建,即建立国际运输部门和国际银行用于描述国际贸易的运输服务供需以及投资的区域间流动。在标准GAGE模型的基础上进行了能源-环境-经济扩展,以描述能源与资本之间以及各类能源之间的替代关系。碳减排情景研究结果验证了GAGE模型理论框架的合理性,展示了能源替代对于减排潜力的显著影响。